Energy Transfer LP (ET) Stock: Insider Buying, 8% Yield and 2026 Forecast as of December 6, 2025

Updated: December 6, 2025

Energy Transfer LP (NYSE: ET), one of North America’s biggest midstream pipeline partnerships, continues to sit in the cross‑hairs of income investors: an almost 8% distribution yield, heavy insider buying, solid growth projects – but also a recent earnings miss and a payout ratio that’s now above 100% of earnings. ^[1]

Below is a deep dive into the latest news, forecasts and analysis as of December 6, 2025, with a particular focus on developments over the last 48 hours.

Quick snapshot of ET stock today (December 6, 2025)

Recent price: roughly $16.80 per unit (Dec 5 close), with intraday trading in the high‑$16 range. ^[2]
Market cap: about $57.6–57.7 billion. ^[3]
52‑week range:$14.60 – $21.45, putting ET ~28% below its 52‑week high and ~15% above its low. ^[4]
Valuation: trailing P/E ~13.4, forward P/E ~11–12, beta around 0.65 – relatively low volatility versus the broader market. ^[5]
Distribution yield: about 7.9–8.0%, based on an annualized payout of $1.33 per unit. ^[6]

Despite a soft share price in 2025 (still well below its January high), ET’s mix of high income, improving project pipeline and fresh institutional interest is keeping it very much in the income‑investor spotlight. ^[7]

Fresh headlines (Dec 5–6, 2025): big buyers stepping in

Seaview Investment Managers and Tema ETFs ramp up positions

On December 6, 2025, MarketBeat reported that Seaview Investment Managers LLC boosted its stake in Energy Transfer by 3,021.8% in Q2, adding 411,926 units to reach 425,558 units worth about $7.7 million. ET now makes up 1.6% of the firm’s portfolio. ^[8]

A day earlier, on December 5, another MarketBeat piece disclosed that Tema ETFs LLC opened a new position of 116,114 units (roughly $2.1 million) in Q2. Several smaller wealth managers have also initiated or increased holdings, and together institutional investors now control about 38% of ET’s float. ^[9]

Insider buying: Kelcy Warren writes a very large check

Both Seaview and Tema reports highlight a major insider transaction:

Director Kelcy L. Warren purchased 1,000,000 ET units on November 19, 2025 at an average price of $16.95, a roughly $16.95 million purchase.
After this trade, Warren directly owns around 104.6 million units, worth north of $1.7 billion at recent prices. ^[10]

Heavy insider buying at or just above the current market price is typically read as a confidence signal – especially when it comes from a founder‑aligned director with a massive existing stake. It doesn’t guarantee strong future returns, but it does suggest that management believes the current valuation underestimates ET’s long‑term cash‑flow potential.

Q3 2025 results: earnings miss, record volumes

Energy Transfer’s latest reported quarter is Q3 2025, released on November 5.

Headline numbers

According to Zacks/Nasdaq and TipRanks summaries of the quarter:

Adjusted EPS:$0.28 per unit, below the consensus estimate of roughly $0.33 (a ~15% miss) and down from $0.32 a year earlier. ^[11]
Revenue: about $19.95 billion, versus analyst expectations around $22.9 billion, down roughly 3.9% year‑on‑year from about $20.8 billion. ^[12]
Operating income: around $2.15 billion, off ~1–2% from the prior year, as higher interest expense offset lower operating costs. ^[13]
Net income attributable to partners:$1.02 billion, down from $1.18 billion in Q3 2024. ^[14]
Adjusted EBITDA:$3.84 billion vs. $3.96 billion a year ago, held back mainly by one‑time items. ^[15]

In short: ET missed earnings and revenue expectations but still produced very large cash flows, enough to comfortably cover capex, interest, and its rich distribution.

Volumes and operations still trending higher

Despite the earnings miss, Q3 2025 showed record throughput in several key segments:

Double‑digit volume growth in NGL transportation and refined products terminal volumes.
Record or near‑record volumes in other gas and liquids transport businesses, reflecting the strength of U.S. natural gas and NGL demand. ^[16]

This is a classic midstream story: GAAP earnings can be noisy quarter‑to‑quarter, but volumes and long‑term contracts are what ultimately drive distributable cash flow.

Guidance: big capital spend, bigger EBITDA

Management’s latest guidance and external summaries indicate that ET expects: ^[17]

2025 adjusted EBITDA:$16.1–$16.5 billion.
2025 growth capex: about $4.6 billion (down from an earlier ~$5 billion plan, signaling some capital discipline).
2026 growth capex: around $5 billion, heavily skewed toward natural‑gas‑focused projects.

These numbers underscore that ET is still in heavy build‑out mode, leaning into secular tailwinds for U.S. gas, NGLs and export infrastructure.

Strategy update: LNG and the data‑center gas boom

Lake Charles LNG: no final go‑ahead until 80% equity is sold

One of the most important recent strategic updates came on November 5–6, 2025, when Reuters reported management’s stance on the long‑planned Lake Charles LNG export project in Louisiana: ^[18]

ET will not take a final investment decision (FID) until 80% of the project’s equity is sold to outside partners.
The facility would have 16.5 mtpa of LNG export capacity, and most of that output has already been pre‑sold via long‑term contracts.
ET has a non‑binding deal with MidOcean Energy, which is expected to fund 30% of construction costs in exchange for 30% of LNG output.

In other words, Lake Charles is commercially de‑risked on the customer side, but rising construction costs mean ET is determined to share capital and execution risk rather than shouldering it all on its own balance sheet.

Pivoting pipelines toward higher‑value gas demand

The same Reuters piece highlighted another important lever: ET is considering converting one of its Permian NGL pipelines to carry natural gas instead, citing surging demand from data centers and power markets. Management noted that some scenarios show roughly double the revenue shipping gas vs. NGLs on the same pipe. ^[19]

This aligns with broader EIA projections that U.S. natural gas consumption will climb to around 91.6 bcfd in 2025–26, up from a record 90.5 bcfd in 2024. ^[20]

Additional growth projects

Recent articles from Zacks and TipRanks, which summarize ET’s own disclosures, point to an extensive list of ongoing growth initiatives: ^[21]

Mustang Draw II – a new 250 MMcf/d natural gas processing plant in the Midland Basin, targeted for service in Q4 2026.
Bethel gas storage expansion near Dallas–Fort Worth – adding a new cavern and effectively doubling working gas storage capacity to >12 Bcf by late 2028.
Price River Terminal expansion in Utah – expected to double export capacity for Uinta crude via added rail loading, heated storage and additional tracks.
Continued rollout of gas‑fired generation units in West Texas to support reliability in high‑growth power markets.

All of this supports the bullish long‑term takes seen in recent analysis pieces like Motley Fool’s “growth outlook keeps getting better” and Seeking Alpha commentary arguing ET has a path to double‑digit annual total returns over the next few years. ^[22]

Distribution: 8% yield and steady increases

Latest hike: $0.3325 per quarter

On October 28, 2025, Energy Transfer announced yet another increase in its quarterly cash distribution:

New quarterly distribution:$0.3325 per unit for Q3 2025, payable November 19, 2025 to unitholders of record on November 7.
Annualized rate:$1.33 per unit, up more than 3% year‑over‑year and continuing a multi‑year series of small but steady hikes. ^[23]

Dividend trackers such as StockAnalysis and Macrotrends peg ET’s forward yield around 7.9–8.0% at current prices. ^[24]

Payout ratio vs. earnings – a yellow flag

Several recent institutional‑ownership and MarketBeat notes emphasize that ET’s payout ratio versus earnings is now over 100%, with one article citing a ~106% payout ratio. ^[25]

For a midstream MLP, that is not necessarily alarming on its own:

These businesses are typically valued on distributable cash flow (DCF), not GAAP EPS, because depreciation is enormous and largely non‑cash.
ET has historically targeted healthy distribution coverage from DCF, though the exact coverage multiple isn’t fully visible in the public summaries we’re using here.

Still, an earnings‑based payout above 100% does limit flexibility if commodity conditions or volumes weaken, which is why some analysts treat ET as a higher‑risk income play compared with more conservative peers.

Dividend / distribution growth outlook

Seeking Alpha’s dividend consensus estimates look for: ^[26]

$1.33 per unit for full‑year 2025,
rising to about $1.38 in 2026,
implying low‑to‑mid single‑digit annual growth on top of the already high starting yield.

If that proves accurate and the unit price merely stays flat, investors could see ~8–9% annual cash returns before any capital appreciation.

Wall Street view: “Buy” consensus, near‑30% upside

Analyst ratings and price targets (as of Dec 6, 2025)

Across major data providers, the message is broadly consistent:

MarketBeat: “Moderate Buy” based on 15 analyst ratings (13 Buy, 2 Hold) with an average 12‑month price target of $21.62, implying ~29% upside from around $16.80. ^[27]
StockAnalysis: similar picture – consensus rating “Buy” and average target $21.62, also pointing to nearly 29% upside plus distributions. ^[28]
TipRanks: slightly lower but still bullish, with an average target of $21.23 from 11 analysts over the last 3 months, implying ~26% upside. ^[29]

Interestingly, Zacks takes a more cautious stance, assigning ET a Rank #4 (Sell) after the Q3 earnings miss and citing near‑term estimate pressure. ^[30]

That divergence highlights the split between:

Short‑term earnings‑revision models (like Zacks), which dislike negative surprises, and
Longer‑term cash‑flow and asset‑based analyses, which remain optimistic about ET’s multi‑year growth and income profile.

Street forecasts for revenue and EPS

StockAnalysis aggregates analyst projections and shows: ^[31]

Revenue 2025: about $84.9 billion (up ~2.7% vs 2024).
Revenue 2026: roughly $94.5 billion, implying ~11% growth.
EPS 2025:$1.43 vs. $1.28 in 2024.
EPS 2026:$1.59, another ~11% increase.

If realized, that would support ongoing distribution growth, gradual deleveraging or buybacks, and a reasonable case for double‑digit total returns (yield + growth) over the next few years.

Business profile: huge, diversified midstream footprint

Energy Transfer is widely described as one of North America’s largest and most diversified midstream energy companies, with: ^[32]

More than 110,000 miles of pipelines and related assets across 40+ U.S. states.
Integrated positions in natural gas, NGLs, crude oil and refined products, spanning gathering, processing, fractionation, transportation, storage and export logistics.
Significant equity stakes in Sunoco LP and USA Compression Partners, which provide additional cash flow streams and strategic optionality.

This scale and diversification give ET structural advantages:

Exposure to multiple basins (Permian, Haynesville, Marcellus, etc.),
Optionality to reroute or repurpose assets (as with the proposed NGL‑to‑gas pipeline conversion), and
Strong competitive positioning in NGL exports and Gulf Coast infrastructure. ^[33]

Institutional flows: 8% ownership bump and why it matters

Fintel recently highlighted an ~8% increase in institutional ownership during Q3 2025, attributing that move largely to: ^[34]

Consistent distribution increases (from $0.325 to $0.3275 to $0.33 and now $0.3325 per quarter in 2025),
Record volumes and robust operational performance across key pipelines,
A growing backlog of growth projects (plants, storage, export facilities, expansions), and
New commercial agreements, including gas supply deals to Oracle data centers and Entergy Louisiana, which tie ET into secular demand from AI‑driven and industrial power loads. ^[35]

Combined with the Seaview and Tema purchases plus the Kelcy Warren insider buy, the message is clear:

“Smart money” and management are still willing to commit fresh capital to ET at current prices.

Key risks for ET unitholders

Even with strong support from institutions and analysts, investors should keep the main risk factors in view:

High leverage and interest costs
ET carries over $60 billion of long‑term debt, and Q3 2025 interest expense was ~7.5% higher year‑over‑year. A higher‑for‑longer rate environment or credit‑market stress could squeeze free cash flow and slow distribution growth. ^[36]
Payout ratio and capital needs
With an earnings‑based payout ratio above 100% and multi‑billion‑dollar capex plans in 2025–26, ET has to execute projects on time and on budget to maintain its distribution trajectory without over‑levering. ^[37]
Project execution and LNG uncertainty
Lake Charles LNG remains un‑sanctioned, dependent on bringing in sufficient equity partners and controlling construction costs. Delays or unfavorable deal terms could diminish the expected upside. ^[38]
Regulatory and environmental pressures
As one of the largest U.S. pipeline operators, ET is constantly exposed to permitting, legal, and ESG‑driven regulatory risks, which can slow or halt projects and raise compliance costs.
Commodity and volume sensitivity
While ET is heavily fee‑based, its volumes and margins still correlate with overall U.S. energy activity. A sustained downturn in drilling or exports, or a structural shift away from fossil fuels faster than expected, would be a headwind.

Is Energy Transfer (ET) stock a buy now?

Putting it all together as of December 6, 2025:

Bullish points

High, growing cash yield (~8%) with a track record of small, regular distribution hikes. ^[39]
One of the largest, most diversified midstream footprints in North America, well positioned for rising U.S. natural gas and NGL demand, including data centers and LNG exports. ^[40]
Robust project backlog (plants, storage caverns, export and terminal expansions) supporting double‑digit EPS and EBITDA growth expectations into 2026. ^[41]
Strong insider and institutional buying at current prices, signaling confidence in ET’s long‑term value. ^[42]
Street consensus is “Buy / Moderate Buy” with ~26–29% price upside on top of the distribution. ^[43]

Bearish / cautious points

Recent earnings miss and a Zacks “Sell” ranking underscore short‑term fundamental and sentiment risk. ^[44]
Leverage remains high, and a payout ratio above 100% of earnings leaves less margin for error if growth projects underperform or macro conditions weaken. ^[45]
The Lake Charles LNG FID is still pending, and any negative shift there could dent the bull case for outsized long‑term growth. ^[46]

Bottom line

For income‑oriented investors who can tolerate volatility and balance‑sheet risk, Energy Transfer LP today looks like a classic high‑yield, total‑return midstream play:

You’re being paid nearly 8% annually in cash distributions,
Wall Street sees mid‑teens to low‑20s total return potential (yield + expected price appreciation),
But you are taking on debt, payout and project‑execution risk that is meaningfully higher than in more conservative pipeline operators.

ET may be attractive for investors who:

Believe U.S. natural gas, NGLs and LNG infrastructure will remain critical for at least the coming decade,
Want high current income and can hold through commodity cycles,
And are comfortable underwriting a “growth‑at‑a‑reasonable‑risk” midstream story rather than a super‑defensive bond proxy.

It may be less suitable for:

Very conservative investors seeking low‑leverage, lower‑risk dividends,
Or anyone with a short investment horizon who might be forced to sell into a cyclical downturn.

As always, this article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Consider your own risk tolerance, tax situation (MLP units can be complex), and time horizon – and, if needed, consult a qualified financial adviser before buying or selling ET units.