ASML Holding NV Stock (ASML): December 6, 2025 – Price, Fresh Buying, AI Tailwinds and 2026 Growth Risks

Data and news current as of December 6, 2025.

Key takeaways

ASML stock is trading around $1,099 per share, near its 52‑week high of about $1,142, with a market cap of roughly $432 billion. ^[1]
Over the last year, ASML has gained about 48%, making it one of the best‑performing tech names in the Nasdaq 100. ^[2]
Institutional demand remains strong: new 13F filings show increased stakes from 1832 Asset Management and a new position from Clear Street LLC, while institutional ownership sits around 26%. ^[3]
Q3 2025 results were solid, with €7.5 billion in net sales, 51.6% gross margin and €2.1 billion net income; management still expects 2025 sales up ~15% vs. 2024 and says 2026 revenue should not fall below 2025. ^[4]
Analysts remain bullish but not euphoric: consensus 12‑month price targets cluster around $1,150–$1,180, implying high‑single‑digit upside from current levels. ^[5]
Key risks investors are watching: U.S. tariff uncertainty, China export controls, high equipment prices, and early‑stage competition in EUV lasers (xLight) backed by up to $150 million in U.S. government incentives. ^[6]

1. Where ASML stock stands today

As of the U.S. session dated December 6, 2025, ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ: ASML) is trading around $1,099.47 per share. That places the stock close to its 52‑week high of $1,141.72 and well above its 12‑month low near $578.51. At these levels, ASML’s market capitalization is about $432.4 billion. ^[7]

On classic valuation metrics, the stock is priced for excellence:

Trailing P/E: ~44.8
PEG ratio: ~1.7
Beta: ~1.9 (meaning the stock tends to move more than the broader market) ^[8]

ASML also returns cash to shareholders. U.S.‑listed shares currently reflect a quarterly dividend around $1.857 per ADR, or about $7.43 annualized, implying a yield of ~0.7% at current prices, with a payout ratio under 30%. ^[9]

From a performance standpoint, ASML is not just a sleepy industrial:

NerdWallet’s ranking of best‑performing tech stocks for December 2025 lists ASML with a 48.1% one‑year total return, alongside high‑flyers like Palantir, Micron and Broadcom. ^[10]

That combination—strong price momentum plus rich but not absurd valuations—is exactly why ASML keeps showing up on AI‑ and semiconductor‑themed stock lists.

2. Fresh news (December 6, 2025): institutions keep buying

Two new 13F‑based headlines on December 6, 2025 highlight ongoing institutional appetite for ASML:

1832 Asset Management L.P.
- Increased its ASML stake by about 67.6% in Q2, to 5,706 shares worth roughly $4.57 million. ^[11]
Clear Street LLC
- Initiated a new position of 5,580 shares, valued at approximately $4.47 million. ^[12]

Both MarketBeat articles note that institutional and hedge fund ownership is roughly 26% of the float, with a long tail of smaller wealth managers steadily adding to positions. ^[13]

Separately, Quiver Quantitative tracks wider institutional behavior and reports that in the most recent quarter:

898 institutional investors added ASML shares,
while 663 reduced positions,
with some large asset managers moving hundreds of millions of dollars in or out of the name. ^[14]

Quiver also notes at least nine trades in ASML by U.S. members of Congress over the last six months—roughly balanced between buys and sells—which mostly reinforces ASML’s status as a widely watched strategic tech stock rather than offering any clear signal by itself. ^[15]

For a mega‑cap European tech name, that mix—steady institutional inflows plus normal profit‑taking—is about what you’d expect after a 40–50% run‑up.

3. Earnings check: strong 2025 so far, with guarded language on 2026

Q3 2025 results (released October 15)

In its Q3 2025 results, ASML reported: ^[16]

Net sales: €7.5 billion
Gross margin: 51.6%
Net income: €2.1 billion
EPS (basic): about €5.49 (ADR‑equivalent EPS reported around $6.41, beating consensus by a small margin)
Net bookings: €5.4 billion, of which €3.6 billion were EUV systems

Key strategic updates from that release:

ASML reiterated that full‑year 2025 net sales should grow ~15% vs. 2024, with a full‑year gross margin around 52%.
Management stated they “do not expect 2026 total net sales to be below 2025,” effectively signaling at least flat revenue in 2026 despite geopolitical noise.
The company announced an interim dividend of €1.60 per ordinary share, payable November 6, 2025, and confirmed progress toward a new share buyback program to be unveiled in January 2026. ^[17]
Technologically, ASML highlighted:
- Continued progress on High‑NA EUV (the next‑gen platform targeting sub‑2nm nodes).
- Shipment of the first TWINSCAN XT:260, an i‑line scanner for advanced packaging claimed to offer up to 4x productivity versus existing solutions. ^[18]
- A strategic partnership and equity stake in generative‑AI company Mistral AI, where ASML invested about €1.3 billion for roughly 11% ownership, aiming to use AI to speed R&D and improve tool performance. ^[19]

MarketBeat’s earnings recap adds some useful context in dollar terms:

Q3 revenue translated to about $8.8 billion, just shy of analyst estimates near $9.0 billion.
Net margin ran around 27%, with return on equity close to 48%—extremely high for a heavy‑equipment manufacturer.
On a trailing basis, Wall Street expects around $25.17 in EPS for full‑year 2025. ^[20]

The Q2 2025 wobble: “cannot confirm” 2026 growth

If Q3 looked reassuring, it’s partly because Q2 2025 had spooked the market:

In July, ASML reported Q2 revenue of about €7.7 billion and net income of €2.3 billion, beating expectations. ^[21]
Despite the beat, management told investors they could not confirm that 2026 sales would grow vs. 2025, citing macro uncertainty and looming U.S. tariffs of up to 30% on EU‑made machinery. ^[22]

The market reaction was brutal:

Shares slid around 8–11% in a single session, wiping out more than $30 billion in market value. ^[23]
Jefferies and other brokers cut estimates, with some analysts now modeling a small revenue decline (~2%) in 2026 instead of the mid‑single‑digit growth they had penciled in previously. ^[24]

That July “cannot‑confirm‑growth” moment is still hanging over ASML’s 2026 narrative, even though management’s Q3 messaging (“2026 not below 2025”) sounded a bit more confident. ^[25]

4. What Wall Street is forecasting now

Despite the mid‑year scare, analysts remain broadly positive on ASML heading into 2026.

Consensus ratings and price targets

Different aggregators show slightly different cuts of the same bullish story:

MarketBeat
- 27 analysts over the last 12 months.
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy.”
- Mix: 20 buys (including strong buys) vs. 7 holds, no sells.
- Average 12‑month price target:$1,171.83, with a range from $935 to $1,331—about 6.6% upside from ~$1,099. ^[26]
StockAnalysis
- Coverage from 5 analysts.
- Consensus rating: “Buy.”
- Average target:$1,149, implying roughly 4.5% upside, with a $850–$1,331 range.
- Latest moves:
  - BofA Securities raised its target from $1,092 to $1,331 (Strong Buy) on December 3.
  - J.P. Morgan nudged its target from $1,175 to $1,275 (Buy) on December 1. ^[27]
TipRanks
- 7 analysts in the last three months.
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy” (6 buys, 1 hold).
- Average target:$1,181.95, with a high of $1,331 and low of $920.67; about 6.5% upside vs. a recent price near $1,110. ^[28]
Benzinga / Nasdaq
- 12–14 firms tracked.
- Consensus price target across all firms sits around $1,041, but that includes some older, lower targets.
- Looking only at the three most recent big‑bank calls (BofA, J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo), the average target is roughly $1,249, implying ~14% upside, with BofA setting the current street high at $1,331. ^[29]
Quiver Quantitative
- Lists recent price target updates from Susquehanna ($1,150), J.P. Morgan ($1,175), Wells Fargo ($890) and Raymond James ($850), with a median around $1,020 over the last six months. ^[30]

Bottom line on forecasts

Across data providers, no major broker is calling for an outright collapse in ASML:

Most see modest upside over 12 months (mid‑single to low‑double‑digit gains).
Ratings skew clearly positive (Buy/Strong Buy), with a small minority of Holds and virtually no Sells. ^[31]

The gap between current price and targets is not huge, which suggests the market already prices in ASML’s dominant position—and that the big debate is about how bumpy 2026 will be, not whether the business breaks.

5. ASML as an AI “pick‑and‑shovel” play

ASML isn’t a chip designer like Nvidia or AMD; it sells the €200–€400 million machines the whole industry needs to make leading‑edge chips. ^[32]

Recent coverage on Nasdaq and other outlets has described ASML as “the new pick‑and‑shovel stock for the AI era”:

AI data‑center chips at 5nm, 3nm and below cannot be produced at scale without EUV lithography, where ASML is currently the sole global supplier. ^[33]
High‑performance memory (HBM, advanced DRAM) and complex 3D packaging increasingly rely on EUV and advanced packaging scanners like ASML’s new TWINSCAN XT:260. ^[34]
That makes ASML more of an infrastructure toll‑booth on the AI boom than a direct bet on any one chip designer.

The macro backdrop is supportive:

A Global Market Insights report from November 2025 estimates the EUV lithography equipment market at $8.66 billion in 2024, rising to $9.71 billion in 2025 and $33.91 billion by 2034, a 14.9% CAGR. ^[35]
It also notes:
- Asia‑Pacific holds about 56% of the EUV equipment market, thanks to TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix.
- Annual service revenue per installed EUV system is roughly $15–25 million, providing sticky, recurring income for equipment vendors. ^[36]

Given ASML’s near‑monopoly on EUV scanners today, it’s hard to discuss this growth curve without seeing ASML as the primary corporate beneficiary.

6. Recent strategic moves: High‑NA EUV, AI, and R&D surge

High‑NA EUV and advanced packaging

ASML is already shipping current‑generation EUV tools, but mid‑decade growth increasingly hinges on High‑NA EUV, which pushes numerical aperture from 0.33 to 0.55 to enable sub‑2nm scaling. ^[37]

The company reports ongoing progress on High‑NA, with Intel and TSMC among the earliest adopters. ^[38]
It has also shipped its first TWINSCAN XT:260 system aimed at advanced packaging, highlighting a strategy to capture value not just at the front‑end (wafers) but also in 3D stacking and heterogeneous integration. ^[39]

Mistral AI partnership

In Q3, ASML took a roughly 11% stake in French startup Mistral AI, investing about €1.3 billion in its Series C round. ^[40]

CFO Roger Dassen has said the aim is to embed advanced AI into ASML’s product portfolio, improving chip‑yield optimization, predictive maintenance, and design‑for‑lithography workflows. ^[41]
The partnership is positioned as a way to shorten development cycles and reduce R&D costs per new platform over the long term.

R&D spend is surging

Leverage Shares’ deep dive on the Q3 results points out that: ^[42]

ASML has already spent about €3.4 billion on R&D in FY 2025 and expects to add another €1.2 billion before year‑end—roughly three times 2024’s R&D bill.
This is exceptional even for ASML, and suggests management believes future demand will justify a much larger product roadmap, especially for High‑NA and advanced packaging.

The trade‑off: higher near‑term expenses and potentially more earnings volatility, in exchange for defending (or extending) ASML’s technological moat.

7. Key risks on investors’ radar

7.1 U.S. tariffs and 2026 growth uncertainty

The biggest macro overhang is U.S. trade policy toward European capital goods:

Reuters reports that potential 30% tariffs on EU‑made chip equipment could raise the effective price of ASML’s high‑end tools by tens of millions of euros per unit for U.S. fabs, as components cross the Atlantic multiple times. ^[43]
During the July earnings cycle, management’s comment that they could not confirm 2026 growth due to these uncertainties triggered a double‑digit percentage decline in the share price and erased over $30 billion in market cap in a day. ^[44]

While Q3 guidance was more reassuring, the tariff question is unresolved. Investors are essentially waiting to see:

Whether threatened tariffs are enacted in full, watered down, or delayed.
How much of any added cost ASML can pass through to customers without delaying fab‑capex plans.

7.2 China exposure and export controls

ASML has benefited significantly from Chinese demand, especially for older‑generation DUV tools that are still allowed under export rules. But that has caught political attention:

A U.S. House Select Committee report argued that ASML and other toolmakers generated “significant” revenue from Chinese entities with military ties and urged tighter, more coordinated export controls. ^[45]
ASML’s own Q3 release notes that management expects China’s net sales in 2026 to decline significantly from very strong 2024–2025 levels, even as overall 2026 revenue is guided to be at least flat vs. 2025. ^[46]

On the other hand, Reuters recently quoted ASML’s CEO as saying that Dutch–China tensions around the government’s takeover of Nexperia “have not affected” ASML’s business in the short term, and that he believes the worst of that particular crisis is over. ^[47]

Net‑net: investors should assume China revenue becomes less of a growth pillar, while AI‑driven demand in the U.S., Europe and the rest of Asia has to take up the slack.

7.3 New competition in EUV light sources: xLight

The other big December headline is the U.S. government’s bet on xLight, a startup developing free‑electron laser (FEL)–based EUV sources: ^[48]

The U.S. Department of Commerce has signed a preliminary Letter of Intent to inject up to $150 million into xLight under the CHIPS and Science Act.
xLight, chaired by former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger, aims to build giant FEL‑based EUV light sources that could be more energy‑efficient and precise than current laser‑produced plasma sources.
Early plans call for developing the first system at the Albany Nanotech Complex, with a roadmap to reach production‑relevant wafers around 2028.

Analysts at Jefferies and others have suggested this initiative could be a long‑term negative for ASML, not because it kills the company, but because it threatens one of the most complex and high‑margin parts of the EUV stack if xLight’s technology proves viable. ^[49]

For now, xLight is a science project with government backing, not a commercially ready rival. But for a company priced at nearly 45x trailing earnings, even distant threats are taken seriously.

7.4 Capital intensity and valuation risk

Leverage Shares and other analysts have raised flags about how much growth is already priced in: ^[50]

High‑NA EUV tools are estimated to cost around $380 million each, and even older EUV machines can fetch above $180 million. There are only so many fabs capable of writing those checks.
ASML’s R&D has roughly tripled vs. 2024, which points to confidence but also means the company is front‑loading a lot of cost before High‑NA volumes ramp.
A valuation study by Simply Wall St (December 4) suggests ASML trades ~37% above its intrinsic value on a discounted cash‑flow basis, though it looks somewhat undervalued on a pure P/E‑relative basis compared with peers, given expected EPS growth north of 40%. ^[51]

In plain language: if 2026 ends up worse than “flat”, the stock doesn’t have much margin of safety.

8. Scenario thinking: ASML stock outlook for 2026 and beyond

None of the following is investment advice—it’s a simple way to frame what the current data and commentary imply.

Base case (what consensus roughly assumes)

2025 plays out close to guidance: ~15% sales growth, ~52% gross margin. ^[52]
2026 revenue is flat to slightly up versus 2025, as weaker China demand and tariff/governance friction are offset by:
- AI‑driven demand at leading‑edge nodes,
- early High‑NA orders,
- and advanced packaging growth.
Margins remain around 50–52%, with R&D still elevated but beginning to normalize as High‑NA moves from R&D to more standardized production.

In this world, current analyst targets ($1,150–$1,200) look reasonable: modest upside but no explosive rerating. ^[53]

Bull case

Tariff threats are dialed back or implemented in a way that doesn’t materially crimp U.S. fab spending.
AI infrastructure build‑out continues faster than expected, forcing foundries to accelerate 3nm and High‑NA programs.
EUV market growth tracks or exceeds the ~15% CAGR projected out to 2034, with ASML maintaining its technological lead. ^[54]
China demand for mature tools remains resilient even under tighter export rules, so the expected 2026 slowdown is milder than feared.

Under this scenario, high‑end targets like BofA’s $1,331 could prove conservative over a multi‑year horizon, though short‑term upside is still constrained by today’s lofty multiples. ^[55]

Bear case

The U.S. enacts steep, broad tariffs on EU chip equipment, and customers delay or scale back orders, especially in 2026.
Additional export restrictions significantly reduce China’s ability to buy even mature tools.
Global macro conditions weaken, leading fabs to push out capex plans.
Efforts like xLight don’t replace ASML but force the company to invest even more heavily in R&D or concede margin on parts of its stack. ^[56]

In that world, Jefferies’ forecast of a slight revenue decline in 2026 could be just the beginning, and ASML might have to grow into a lower multiple more slowly—think P/E compressing toward the mid‑20s to low‑30s, even if long‑term demand remains intact. ^[57]

9. What to watch next

For anyone tracking ASML from December 2025 onward, the most important upcoming catalysts are:

January 2026 investor communications
- ASML has indicated it will give more detail on its 2026 outlook and announce a new share buyback program early in the year. ^[58]
Policy developments
- Concrete decisions on U.S. tariffs for European machinery under the current administration. ^[59]
- Any new export‑control measures by the U.S., Netherlands or Japan that further limit tool sales to China. ^[60]
High‑NA and xLight milestones
- Customer updates from Intel, TSMC and Samsung on High‑NA production ramps and yields. ^[61]
- Technical proof points from xLight’s FEL‑based EUV program, including initial results at the Albany Nanotech Complex and any signs of commercial agreements with fabs or toolmakers. ^[62]
Order trends and regional mix
- Even though ASML plans to stop reporting detailed bookings in future periods, investors will still scour commentary for signs of:
  - Order strength outside China,
  - The balance between logic vs. memory customers, and
  - Advanced packaging demand. ^[63]

10. Bottom line

As of December 6, 2025, ASML remains one of the most strategically important—and closely watched—companies in global technology:

It is Europe’s largest tech company by market cap and the sole supplier of EUV scanners required for the most advanced chips. ^[64]
Financial performance in 2025 has been strong, with double‑digit revenue growth, fat margins, and rising dividends. ^[65]
Wall Street’s base case calls for continued growth, but acknowledges that 2026 could be choppier than the last few years. ^[66]

For investors, the story is simple but not easy:

If you believe AI, advanced logic, and memory will keep pulling EUV demand higher—and that tariffs and export controls will prove manageable—ASML looks like a long‑duration “picks and shovels” play on the semiconductor cycle.
If you worry that policy risk, new competitors, or a macro slowdown will blunt 2026–2027 growth, the current valuation leaves little room for missteps.

Either way, ASML is likely to remain a fixture on Google News, Google Discover, and earnings calendars for years to come.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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