Snowflake’s Q3 FY26 beat, AI mega‑deals and sharp post‑earnings sell‑off have made SNOW one of the most talked‑about tech stocks this week. Here’s a full breakdown of what’s going on right now.
Updated: December 6, 2025 — All figures in USD. This article is informational and not investment advice.
Snowflake stock today: sharp weekly drop after a big 2025 rally
Snowflake Inc. (NYSE: SNOW) closed Friday, December 5, at $228.79, down about 2.6% on the day and roughly 9% over the past week, according to StockAnalysis and alternative‑data platform Quiver Quant. [1]
Even after this pullback, Snowflake remains a strong 2025 winner. Both Reuters and Investopedia note that the shares are still up more than 50–70% year‑to‑date, reflecting how aggressively investors had priced in AI‑driven growth before this week’s sell‑off. [2]
Key snapshot as of the latest close: [3]
- Price: $228.79
- Market cap: ~$78.3 billion
- 52‑week range: $120.10 – $280.67
- Revenue (ttm): $4.39 billion
- Net income (ttm): –$1.35 billion (still unprofitable on GAAP)
- Forward P/E: ~157x
- Beta: 1.09 (more volatile than the overall market)
Those numbers underscore the core tension around Snowflake stock right now: huge growth and AI momentum, but at a very premium valuation and with persistent GAAP losses. [4]
Q3 FY26 recap: strong results, softer outlook
On December 3, Snowflake reported results for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended October 31, 2025). The headline numbers were strong: [5]
- Total revenue: $1.21 billion (+29% YoY)
- Product revenue: $1.16 billion (+29% YoY)
- Net revenue retention: 125%
- Remaining performance obligations (RPO): $7.88 billion (+37% YoY)
- Non‑GAAP operating income: $131.3 million (11% margin)
- GAAP net loss: about $294 million, or –$0.87 per share
The business metrics remain impressive:
- 688 customers generate over $1 million in trailing‑12‑month product revenue.
- 766 of Snowflake’s customers are Forbes Global 2000 companies. [6]
So why did the stock tank?
Guidance spooked the market
The problem wasn’t Q3 — it was what comes next. For Q4 FY26, Snowflake guided to: [7]
- Product revenue: $1.195–$1.200 billion (~27% YoY growth, down from 29% in Q3)
- Non‑GAAP operating margin:7%, down from 11% in Q3
- Full‑year FY26 product revenue: about $4.446 billion (28% YoY growth)
Reuters highlighted that investors latched onto the slower product revenue growth forecast and margin compression, with the company explicitly noting that discounts on large, multi‑year deals are weighing on near‑term revenue even as they deepen long‑term customer relationships. [8]
Investopedia added that Snowflake’s AI investment ramp is also pressuring margins: the company plans to keep spending on AI products like Snowflake Intelligence and Cortex AI, accepting lower near‑term profitability to pursue long‑term growth. [9]
Result: despite beating expectations on revenue and adjusted EPS (Q3 adjusted EPS came in at $0.35 vs. consensus below that), the stock dropped more than 10–11% on Thursday, wiping out around $10 billion in market value. [10]
AI and cloud partnerships: Anthropic, AWS, NVIDIA, SAP and more
Even as the stock sells off, Snowflake is leaning hard into its AI Data Cloud story. Several major announcements this week reinforced that narrative:
$200 million Anthropic deal and AI agents
Snowflake announced a multi‑year, $200 million partnership with Anthropic to bring Claude models deeper into the Snowflake platform and power “agentic AI” for large enterprises. [11]
- Anthropic’s Claude models become more tightly integrated into Snowflake Intelligence and Cortex AI, making it easier for regulated industries to build AI agents that sit directly on governed enterprise data.
- Snowflake and Anthropic are also launching a joint go‑to‑market initiative, aimed at rolling out these AI capabilities across more than 12,600 Snowflake customers globally. [12]
Doubling AWS Marketplace sales and winning 14 AWS awards
In another big AI‑and‑cloud milestone, Snowflake announced that it doubled its AWS Marketplace transaction growth year‑over‑year, surpassing $2 billion in sales in 2025. [13]
Highlights from the AWS press release:
- Snowflake was recognized as an AWS Partner of the Year in multiple categories, including Data & Analytics Technology, Generative AI Tools, and Infrastructure Technology.
- New integrations include:
- Connecting Snowflake Agents with Amazon Bedrock AgentCore
- Catalog federation between Snowflake Horizon and AWS Glue
- Support for Iceberg V3 to improve open table‑format interoperability
This cements Snowflake’s positioning as a core AI & data layer on top of hyperscaler clouds, particularly AWS.
Other ecosystem moves
Recent releases also highlight: [14]
- A deeper integration with NVIDIA CUDA‑X for GPU‑accelerated machine learning inside Snowflake ML
- A collaboration with SAP to connect Snowflake’s AI Data Cloud with SAP Business Data Cloud
- Safe Software’s FME data integration platform now running inside Snowflake to streamline in‑database data integration
In short: while the near‑term numbers upset the market, the strategic AI and cloud partnerships are accelerating, not slowing down.
What Wall Street is saying: ratings, targets and consensus
Despite the post‑earnings drop, analysts remain broadly bullish on Snowflake.
Fresh target hikes in early December
GuruFocus reports that on December 4, Baird reaffirmed an Outperform rating and raised its price target from $260 to $270, citing confidence in Snowflake’s growth trajectory. [15]
The same article highlights a series of recent increases from other major banks: [16]
- Rosenblatt: Buy, target raised from $250 → $275
- Citigroup: Buy, $275 → $310
- Bank of America: Buy, $280 → $310
- Mizuho: Outperform, $260 → $285
- BTIG: Buy, $276 → $312
Quiver Quant’s analyst‑ratings data, updated today, shows a wall of green:
- 30 firms with Buy / Outperform / Overweight ratings in recent months
- No recent Sell ratings in their dataset
- Recent targets clustering between $270 and $312, from firms including Canaccord Genuity, Piper Sandler, Rosenblatt, DA Davidson, BTIG, Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley. [17]
Consensus price target and rating
Across major aggregators:
- StockAnalysis:
- Average 12‑month target:$268.74
- Implied upside vs. $228.79: ~17%
- Consensus rating: Strong Buy, based on 44 analysts. [18]
- MarketBeat:
- Average target: about $275
- Implied upside roughly 20% from recent prices
- Consensus rating described as “Moderate Buy”, with a strong majority of Buy‑equivalent ratings. [19]
- GuruFocus:
- Average target from 45 analysts: around $275.37
- Analyst consensus recommendation: 1.9 on a 1–5 scale, corresponding to “Outperform”. [20]
Taken together, Wall Street’s 12‑month view sits in the high‑$260s to mid‑$270s, implying mid‑teens to low‑20% upside from current levels — assuming Snowflake can deliver on its growth and AI story.
At the same time, Reuters notes the stock still trades at roughly 165x forward earnings, more than double Datadog and MongoDB on the same metric, which explains why even slight guidance disappointments trigger outsized moves. [21]
Alternative data: insider selling, institutional flows and technical forecasts
Beyond traditional earnings and price targets, several datasets shed more light on how different players are positioning around SNOW.
Heavy insider selling vs. broad institutional buying
Quiver Quant’s latest report (posted December 6) shows: [22]
- Insiders:
- 225 insider trades in the last six months – all sales, zero open‑market buys.
- Former CEO Frank Slootman sold over 3 million shares, worth an estimated $675 million+.
- Co‑founder Benoit Dageville and other senior leaders have also been consistent net sellers.
- Institutions:
- 733 institutional investors added SNOW in their latest quarter, while 616 reduced positions.
- Large new or increased stakes from FMR, Wellington Management, UBS AM and others, offset by big reductions from some funds such as Kingstone Capital and Two Sigma.
The read‑through: insiders have been taking profits into strength, but institutional ownership remains deep and dynamic, with many large asset managers still increasing exposure despite volatility.
Quant forecasts and technical signals
On the purely technical side, CoinCodex’s model‑driven forecast paints a cautious picture: [23]
- Short term (next 5 days):
- Price projected to drift up modestly toward $232–233 (~1.7% upside).
- Next month:
- Model expects SNOW around $193, about –16% below today’s level.
- One‑year view (algorithmic forecast):
- A sharply bearish projection around $90, more than 60% below the current price.
The site classifies sentiment as bearish, with 18 bearish vs. 8 bullish technical indicators, and notes that SNOW trades below several key short‑ and medium‑term moving averages (such as the 50‑day SMA around $250). [24]
These machine‑driven forecasts are not fundamental research, but they help explain why shorter‑term traders may be cautious even while long‑only analysts maintain high targets.
Valuation views and fair‑value models
Fundamental‑oriented platforms also weighed in on Snowflake this week.
Simply Wall St’s latest narrative, published in early December, emphasizes that: [25]
- Their forward narrative projects Snowflake reaching roughly $7.8 billion in revenue and about $497 million in earnings by 2028, implying ~24% annualized revenue growth from today’s base.
- On those assumptions, they estimate a fair value around $272.69 per share, roughly 19% above current prices.
- Community valuations on the platform span a wide range, roughly $114–$273, illustrating just how polarized investor opinions are.
The big question in that analysis: can Snowflake turn its AI Data Cloud leadership into durable, profitable growth, rather than one‑off migration spikes and pilot AI projects that don’t translate into long‑term usage?
Key bullish and bearish arguments around SNOW stock
The bull case (why analysts still love it)
Supporters of Snowflake and many Wall Street analysts point to several positives: [26]
- Durable growth: 29% product revenue growth and 125% net revenue retention show that customers are expanding usage even as macro conditions remain choppy.
- Massive AI runway:
- Rapid adoption of Snowflake Intelligence, the company’s AI agent, which management calls the fastest‑adopted product in its history.
- A growing stable of AI partnerships (Anthropic, NVIDIA, SAP, AWS and more) embedded into core enterprise workflows.
- Deep enterprise footprint:
- Hundreds of Global 2000 customers and 688 $1M+ accounts create a very sticky, high‑spend customer base.
- Huge TAM and ecosystem:
- The AI and data infrastructure market is still in the early innings; Snowflake’s multi‑cloud architecture and AI‑optimized platform position it as a central “data operating system” for many enterprises.
- Analyst support:
- Dozens of major banks have raised their price targets post‑earnings, with average targets comfortably above today’s price.
The bear case (why the stock just dropped ~10–11%)
Skeptics and more cautious investors highlight several risks: [27]
- Valuation risk:
- Even after the sell‑off, SNOW still trades at a triple‑digit forward P/E and a premium vs. peers like Datadog and MongoDB. That leaves little room for error.
- Growth deceleration:
- Product revenue growth is slowing from the mid‑30s to high‑20s, and Q4 guidance at 27% is below what many investors hoped for.
- Margin compression:
- Management guiding Q4 non‑GAAP operating margins down to 7% has raised concerns that AI investments will keep profitability subdued for longer.
- Intense competition:
- Hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP) and specialized vendors keep pushing rival data and AI platforms.
- Insider selling:
- Months of heavy insider stock sales, including by top executives, give some investors pause, even if they can be explained by long‑term compensation plans.
- Model‑based forecasts turning negative:
- Quant and technical models (like CoinCodex) flag bearish signals and forecast possible downside over 6–12 months, which can weigh on sentiment among traders.
Bottom line: how to think about Snowflake stock after the post‑earnings dip
As of December 6, 2025, Snowflake sits at a crossroads that’s classic for high‑growth tech:
- Fundamentally, the company is still growing fast, piling up large AI and cloud partnerships, and remains deeply embedded in blue‑chip enterprise data stacks.
- Strategically, the $200 million Anthropic partnership, AWS milestone above $2 billion in marketplace sales, and new integrations with NVIDIA and SAP all support the idea that Snowflake is becoming a central infrastructure layer for AI workloads. [28]
- Financially, the combination of slowing growth, lower near‑term margins and a still‑rich valuation explains why the stock is volatile — and why every earnings release has become a “make or break” event for the share price.
Wall Street, for now, is voting to stay optimistic, with target prices well above the current level and a thick cluster of Buy ratings. Quants and technicians, on the other hand, see more risk than reward in the next year, and insider behavior has been firmly in “sell” mode even as institutions keep buying. [29]
If you’re evaluating SNOW, the real question isn’t just whether you believe in AI or in Snowflake’s technology. It’s whether you believe that:
- AI‑driven demand can sustain ~25–30% growth for years, and
- Management can expand margins meaningfully once the current wave of AI investment is absorbed,
- All while justifying one of the highest valuations in enterprise software.
Those are inherently personal risk‑reward judgments.
Important: This article is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an assessment of suitability for your personal circumstances. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.tradingview.com, 6. investors.snowflake.com, 7. www.tradingview.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.investopedia.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.businesswire.com, 12. www.businesswire.com, 13. www.businesswire.com, 14. www.businesswire.com, 15. www.gurufocus.com, 16. www.gurufocus.com, 17. www.quiverquant.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.gurufocus.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.quiverquant.com, 23. coincodex.com, 24. coincodex.com, 25. simplywall.st, 26. www.tradingview.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.businesswire.com, 29. www.quiverquant.com
