As of December 7, 2025, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) – Wall Street’s classic “fear gauge” – is sitting in the mid‑teens after a sharp retreat from November’s volatility spikes. The latest trade data show spot VIX around 15.4, down roughly 12–13% so far in December, and well below the panic peaks above 26 seen just a few weeks ago. [1]
That mix of calmer volatility and still‑elevated macro risks makes the VIX index a crucial number to watch for anyone trading stocks, options, or VIX-linked products.
Key Takeaways for December 7, 2025
- VIX today: Recent closes put the VIX around 15.4, down from 17.2 at the start of December and from above 23–26 during the November and October volatility spikes. [2]
- Short‑term trend: VIX has fallen for several sessions in a row, posting daily declines of roughly 2–5% as markets calm after recent shocks. [3]
- Month‑to‑date move: The VIX “fear index” has dropped about 12.6% this month, according to recent market commentary, suggesting investors are settling back into a “quiet” regime – at least for now. [4]
- Bigger picture: Over the past three months, VIX has oscillated between about 14.7 and 26.4, with spikes driven by changing expectations for Federal Reserve policy and growth. [5]
- Outlook: Many forecasts still expect muted average volatility in coming years, but some models see the VIX drifting higher again into 2026 and beyond – a reminder that calm can be temporary. [6]
What Exactly Is the VIX Index?
Despite people often searching for “VIX index stock”, the VIX itself is not a stock. It’s an index calculated from S&P 500 (SPX) options prices to estimate the market’s expectation of volatility over the next 30 days. [7]
In plain English:
- It looks at SPX put and call options across a wide range of strike prices.
- From those prices, it backs out a consensus implied volatility number.
- That number is reported as the VIX index level (e.g., 15, 20, 30).
Since its launch in 1993 and revision in 2003, the VIX has become the world’s most widely watched barometer of equity market fear and complacency, used by traders, risk managers and portfolio managers globally. [8]
Historically, since 1990 the VIX has spent much of its life in the high‑teens to low‑twenties range, spiking much higher in crises and dropping into the low‑teens during periods of calm. [9]
VIX Index Today: Latest Levels and Recent Moves
The freshest available numbers going into Sunday, December 7, 2025, show:
- Dec 1, 2025: 17.24
- Dec 2, 2025: 16.59
- Dec 3, 2025: 16.08
- Dec 4, 2025: 15.78
- Dec 5, 2025: 15.41 (close), with an intraday range roughly 15.28–16.18 and a ‑2.34% daily move. [10]
Cboe and other data providers list the spot VIX at about 15.4, unchanged to slightly lower into the December 6 snapshot, confirming the move into a more relaxed volatility regime. [11]
On a three‑month view, the story is very different. Data from volatility trackers show: [12]
- VIX trough near 14.7 in early September.
- Spikes above 25–26 in mid‑October and mid‑November, as investors reacted to shifting Fed rate‑cut expectations and macro‑growth worries.
- A subsequent retreat back to the mid‑teens as some of those fears eased and liquidity expectations improved.
In short, VIX today is calm, but not historically “cheap”; it’s closer to its long‑run average than to the ultra‑low levels seen in past periods of extreme complacency.
What Is Driving Volatility Lower Right Now?
Recent commentary from major financial outlets points to a few key drivers behind the December VIX slide:
- Rising liquidity and supportive conditions for risk assets
A widely cited analysis notes that the S&P 500 is facing a “vast wave of incoming liquidity” and flirting with record highs, while the VIX has fallen about 12.6% so far in December. [13]
That combination suggests investors are again comfortable buying dips rather than panic‑selling on negative headlines. - Stabilizing expectations for Federal Reserve policy
Earlier in the autumn, markets swung between hopes for early rate cuts and fears of “higher for longer”, feeding sharp moves in the VIX when expectations shifted. [14]
More recently, the Fed path is still debated, but not changing every week, which tends to dampen day‑to‑day volatility. - Strong equity performance masking under‑the‑surface risks
US stocks are hovering near all‑time highs, and some analysts argue this calm hides stretched positioning and growing concentration risk in a handful of mega‑cap names. [15]
That’s a textbook environment where VIX sits in the mid‑teens: not low enough to scream “euphoria,” but low enough to suggest investors aren’t aggressively hedging. - Diverging volatility across assets
While the VIX drifts lower, other markets tell a different story. Recent analysis shows Bitcoin’s implied volatility index (BVIV) breaking higher relative to VIX, setting up possible long‑crypto / short‑VIX pair trade ideas for sophisticated traders. [16]
Taken together, the headline equity market looks calm, but cross‑asset signals and the recent memory of VIX spikes argue against complacency.
Latest VIX Forecasts: 2025–2026 Outlook
No one – including very fancy models with Greek letters – can predict volatility perfectly. But current public forecasts and outlooks give a sense of how pros are thinking about the VIX path beyond December 7, 2025.
1. Short‑ to Medium‑Term Forecasts
A recent volatility outlook from Capital.com, summarizing third‑party projections from Wallet Investor as of early September, expected VIX futures to average between about 12.7 and 9.9 into late 2025, drifting even lower into 2026–2027. [17]
Reality check:
- Those forecasts implied a single‑digit VIX by December 2025, yet the index is actually around 15–16 today. [18]
- That gap illustrates how volatility is notoriously hard to forecast, and how quickly macro risks can derail a “permanently calm” baseline.
Other model‑based approaches, such as EGARCH volatility models run by NYU’s Volatility Lab, produce forward‑looking volatility forecasts for VIX‑related indices, generally consistent with moderate, not crisis‑level, volatility ahead – though those models emphasize large uncertainty and the potential for sudden jumps. [19]
2. Longer‑Term Scenario Projections
Some services take a more structural view. One forecasting site, for example, projects: [20]
- 2026 VIX level: around 18.0, implying a modest increase from today.
- 2030 VIX level: around 25.7, roughly 60% higher than current levels.
These are not guarantees; they’re scenario‑style projections based on historical patterns and mean‑reversion. But they underline a key point:
The long‑run average VIX is higher than today’s reading – meaning today’s mid‑teens VIX is calm relative to history, but not so low that it can’t move sharply higher again. [21]
3. Institutional Outlooks
At the start of 2025, large asset managers like Morgan Stanley outlined a world with: [22]
- Strong equity markets recovering from the 2022 bear market.
- Gains driven by a narrow group of growth‑oriented giants.
- A volatility regime expected to stay moderate on average, but punctuated by episodic spikes as risks surface.
That outlook has aged fairly well: 2025 has delivered bursts of fear (October–November spikes) followed by swift collapses back to mid‑teens VIX, which is exactly the “jumpy but not catastrophic” volatility profile many strategists anticipated. [23]
Technical Picture: What the Charts (Quietly) Say About VIX
Even without showing charts, we can talk about what technical analysis is saying.
According to technical summaries from Investing.com, the VIX currently screens as a “Strong Sell” on many standard moving‑average setups (MA5 through MA200), with zero buy signals and a dozen sell signals. [24]
Translation:
- Price has broken below multiple key moving averages.
- Short‑term momentum is negative as VIX bleeds down from earlier spikes.
- From a purely chart‑driven perspective, volatility is in a down‑trend, at least for now.
For contrarian traders, that’s a double‑edged sword:
- It suggests staying long volatility has been painful in recent sessions.
- But given VIX’s strong tendency to mean‑revert and spike, an extended “Strong Sell” reading can also be the setup phase for the next volatility shock.
How to Trade the VIX Index (Indirectly)
Because the VIX is an index, you can’t buy “VIX stock” directly. Instead, investors use derivatives and exchange‑traded products (ETPs) built on VIX futures. Cboe itself highlights several key instruments: [25]
- VIX Futures (CFE) – Standard contracts based on the VIX methodology.
- Mini VIX Futures – 1/10th the size for finer position sizing.
- VIX Options – Options on VIX futures that let traders express views on future volatility or hedge tail risk.
Then there are VIX‑linked ETFs and ETNs (listed on various exchanges), which typically hold a rolling basket of short‑term or mid‑term VIX futures. As Bloomberg reported earlier this autumn, investors have been piling into volatility ETPs as a way to bet that today’s low volatility won’t last. [26]
A few critical points for anyone eyeing these products:
- You are trading futures behavior, not spot VIX.
VIX ETPs track the performance of futures contracts, which can behave very differently from the spot index itself, especially over longer periods. - Roll yield can be brutal.
When the futures curve is in contango (short‑dated futures cheaper than longer‑dated ones), VIX ETPs must continually “roll up” the curve, often losing value over time even if spot VIX goes sideways. [27] - Leveraged and inverse products magnify path risk.
2x or 3x leveraged long or inverse VIX ETPs are designed for very short holding periods and can decay rapidly during choppy markets.
In simple terms: VIX trading is an advanced sport. For most investors, the main role of VIX is as an indicator, not as something to trade aggressively.
What the Current VIX Regime Means for Stock Investors
Even if you never touch a volatility product, the VIX contains useful information about the stock market’s mood.
1. Mid‑Teens VIX = “Calm but Not Asleep”
With VIX around 15–16, markets are calmer than in recent months, but not so tranquil that risk has vanished. The historical context and recent spikes show how quickly this level can jump into the 20s on bad news. [28]
For long‑term investors, that typically means:
- Standard corrections are possible, but the market is not currently priced for crisis.
- Hedging via index options is cheaper than it was during the October–November spikes, but more expensive than at ultra‑low VIX levels.
2. Low VIX Often Coexists With Market Highs
Recent analysis highlights that the S&P 500 is hovering near record highs just as indicators like VIX are signaling complacency or “zen” sentiment. [29]
Historically, that combination can produce:
- Extended rallies if liquidity keeps flowing and earnings hold up.
- Or sharp air‑pockets when a surprise event shatters the calm (policy shock, geopolitical event, earnings disappointment, etc.).
The big lesson: low VIX is not a sell signal by itself, but it does argue for paying attention to risk concentration, leverage, and position crowding.
3. Diversification and Hedges in a Calm Regime
With volatility subdued:
- Diversification (across sectors, factors, and geographies) becomes more important, because index‑level VIX may understate risk in specific pockets of the market.
- Hedging strategies – using index puts, VIX calls, or defensive assets like gold – can often be implemented at more reasonable prices than during panic spikes. [30]
How Traders Are Positioning Around VIX Right Now
Recent market data and commentary point to a few notable themes:
- Short‑volatility positioning has grown again.
After the autumn spikes, volatility sellers (via options or VIX futures strategies) have crept back in, taking advantage of falling implied volatility. This is consistent with the persistent downtrend in VIX and the technical “Strong Sell” signal on the index. [31] - Macro hedgers are using VIX options tactically.
With spot VIX back in the mid‑teens and futures curves relatively tame, some institutional investors prefer targeted out‑of‑the‑money VIX call spreads as a tail‑risk hedge rather than paying high premiums for at‑the‑money SPX puts. [32] - Cross‑asset volatility trades are back in focus.
The widening gap between crypto volatility (BVIV) and equity volatility (VIX) has revived interest in relative‑value trades – long the “cheap” side of fear, short the “expensive” one, according to recent crypto‑equity volatility analysis. [33]
These are complex strategies, but they all orbit the same idea: current VIX levels look low compared to recent stress, but high enough compared to some forecasts to keep the volatility conversation alive.
Risks and Caveats for Anyone Trading VIX Products
A quick reality check for anyone tempted to jump from reading the VIX to actively trading it:
- VIX can move violently, very quickly.
A one‑day move from the mid‑teens to the mid‑20s is absolutely normal in a shock. That can wipe out short‑volatility positions that looked safe the day before. Historical data is full of those jumps. [34] - ETFs/ETNs are not buy‑and‑hold tools.
Because of roll costs and path dependency, many VIX ETPs have long‑term charts that decay relentlessly, even if you occasionally see spectacular short‑term spikes. [35] - Forecasts are often wrong.
The mismatch between earlier 2025 forecasts (calling for single‑digit VIX by year‑end) and today’s actual levels is a real‑time example of how model‑based predictions can be too optimistic about calm. [36] - This is information, not investment advice.
Any decisions about hedging, speculating, or adjusting your portfolio around volatility should be based on your own objectives, risk tolerance and time horizon, ideally with input from a qualified adviser.
The Bottom Line on the VIX Index as of December 7, 2025
- The VIX index today is calm but not asleep, trading in the mid‑teens after shaking off October–November fear spikes. [37]
- Forecasts and institutional outlooks mostly point to a world of moderate average volatility with occasional shocks, not a permanently tranquil market. [38]
- For most investors, the best use of VIX is as a risk thermometer – a way to gauge market mood and stress – rather than as a standalone “VIX index stock” to buy and hold. [39]
References
1. www.cboe.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. fortune.com, 5. streetstats.finance, 6. capital.com, 7. www.cboe.com, 8. www.cboe.com, 9. www.macrotrends.net, 10. fred.stlouisfed.org, 11. www.cboe.com, 12. streetstats.finance, 13. fortune.com, 14. streetstats.finance, 15. www.morganstanley.com, 16. www.coindesk.com, 17. capital.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. vlab.stern.nyu.edu, 20. meyka.com, 21. www.macrotrends.net, 22. www.morganstanley.com, 23. streetstats.finance, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.cboe.com, 26. www.bloomberg.com, 27. www.cboe.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.barrons.com, 30. www.nerdwallet.com, 31. www.investing.com, 32. www.cboe.com, 33. www.coindesk.com, 34. www.coindesk.com, 35. www.cboe.com, 36. capital.com, 37. www.investing.com, 38. capital.com, 39. www.cboe.com
