CEG Stock: Constellation Energy Dips After Calpine Deal Conditions, But AI and Nuclear Tailwinds Keep Bulls Interested

Constellation Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: CEG) has quickly become one of the most closely watched names in the utility and clean‑energy space. As of the close on December 5, 2025, CEG stock finished at $359.82, about 12–13% below its 52‑week high of $412.70, but still more than 40% higher than a year ago. ^[1]

The latest pullback comes just as Constellation secured final regulatory clearance for its transformational Calpine acquisition, while doubling down on its role as a key power supplier to AI data centers, Big Tech and the U.S. government.

Below is a detailed look at the latest news, forecasts and analyses on CEG stock as of December 7, 2025.

CEG stock today: price, performance and valuation

Latest close (Dec. 5, 2025): $359.82
52‑week range: $161.35 – $412.70
Market cap: roughly $112 billion
Trailing P/E: ~41x
Dividend yield: about 0.43%, based on an annualized dividend of $1.55 per share. ^[2]

According to data from Investing.com and the Financial Times, Constellation shares are up around 40–45% over the past 12 months, far outpacing the broader utilities sector. ^[3] Barchart notes that CEG has “considerably outperformed” other utilities over the past year, with analysts “cautiously optimistic” on further gains. ^[4]

At the same time, valuation has stretched. Simply Wall St estimates Constellation trades at roughly 41x earnings, about double the average P/E of the electric utilities industry, even as its discounted cash‑flow (DCF) model implies a fair value around $492 per share, or roughly 27% above current levels. ^[5]

In short: the stock looks expensive on traditional utility valuation metrics, but many analysts argue it deserves a premium because of its dominant nuclear fleet, AI‑linked power contracts and strong policy tailwinds.

Big headline: DOJ clears $16.4 billion Calpine deal with divestiture conditions

The most important development this week is that Constellation has secured final regulatory approval to acquire privately held Calpine Corporation in a $16.4 billion deal, one of the largest power-sector transactions in U.S. history. ^[6]

On December 5, 2025, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) agreed to a settlement spelling out the conditions required to complete the transaction.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) had already approved the deal, conditional on Calpine divesting four Mid‑Atlantic generating assets (Hay Road, Edge Moor, Bethlehem and York 1). ^[7]
Under the DOJ resolution, Constellation also agreed to sell:
- York 2 (828 MW gas‑fired plant in Pennsylvania),
- the Jack Fusco Energy Center (605 MW gas plant near Houston, Texas), and
- a minority interest in the Gregory Power Plant near Corpus Christi, Texas. ^[8]

The DOJ said these divestitures address concerns that the combined company could reduce competition and raise prices in the PJM Interconnection and ERCOT power markets. ^[9]

Constellation’s own statement casts the settlement as a positive, “final regulatory clearance” that allows it to move forward and close the deal, emphasizing that rising demand from onshoring, electrification and data centers should create a robust market for the gas plants it must sell. ^[10]

Market reaction:

On the day of the DOJ announcement, CEG stock slipped about 2.4%, closing at $359.82 versus a prior close of $368.62, and dipping back below its 50‑day moving average. ^[11]
Coverage from outlets like MarketWatch and the Financial Times highlighted that shares remain about 12–13% below their October record high, suggesting investors are digesting both the strategic upside and the near‑term integration and divestiture overhang. ^[12]

The Calpine transaction, once completed, will significantly expand Constellation’s gas and renewables portfolio and give it even more scale as a “one‑stop shop” for large power buyers, but the forced asset sales introduce some uncertainty around the final earnings mix.

Nuclear, AI and mega‑contracts: the growth story powering CEG

What sets Constellation apart from a typical utility is its positioning at the intersection of nuclear power, AI data centers and large institutional buyers of clean energy.

Largest U.S. producer of carbon‑free power

Constellation describes itself as the nation’s largest producer of reliable, emissions‑free energy, with the largest commercial nuclear fleet in the U.S. and capacity sufficient to power the equivalent of around 16 million homes, supplying about 10% of the country’s clean energy. ^[13]

That nuclear backbone underpins several high‑profile deals:

1. Record federal contract: $1 billion in nuclear power for the U.S. government

In January 2025, Constellation announced record contracts worth over $1 billion to supply nuclear-generated electricity to the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) over ten years. ^[14]

The main 10‑year, ~$840 million agreement will deliver 10 million MWh of power to more than 80 federal facilities across the PJM grid — the largest energy purchase in GSA history. ^[15]
A second contract worth about $172 million covers energy‑efficiency upgrades, including lighting and HVAC improvements in government buildings. ^[16]

This deal helps extend the life and output of Constellation’s nuclear fleet and underscores the federal government’s growing reliance on nuclear as a carbon‑free baseload resource.

2. Long‑term AI power contract with Microsoft: Crane / Three Mile Island

Constellation is also at the center of one of the most symbolic turning points for U.S. nuclear power: the planned restart of Three Mile Island Unit 1, now being rebranded as the Crane Clean Energy Center in Pennsylvania.

In September 2024, Constellation signed a 20‑year power purchase agreement with Microsoft, its largest PPA ever, to restart the 835 MW unit and dedicate its output to Microsoft’s data centers. ^[17]
The U.S. Department of Energy has since closed on a $1 billion loan to support the restart, with Constellation expecting to invest about $1.6 billion in total and potentially return the plant to operation as soon as 2027, a year earlier than initially expected. ^[18]

The project would be the first full restart of a shuttered U.S. nuclear plant, and analysts widely view it as a test case for leveraging existing nuclear assets to meet AI-driven load growth.

3. Meta’s 20‑year nuclear deal at Clinton Clean Energy Center

In June 2025, Constellation and Meta signed another 20‑year PPA for the Clinton Clean Energy Center, a nuclear plant in Illinois with 1,121 MW of capacity. ^[19]

Key details from the company’s announcement:

The agreement kicks in mid‑2027, right after Illinois’ zero‑emission credit (ZEC) support expires.
It supports relicensing and continued operations of the plant for two additional decades and funds 30 MW of uprates, boosting output.
The deal is expected to preserve roughly 1,100 local jobs, deliver about $13.5 million in annual tax revenue, and add $1 million in charitable giving over five years to the surrounding communities. ^[20]

This Meta contract, together with the Microsoft PPA and the federal GSA deal, has turned Constellation into a go‑to nuclear supplier for both government and Big Tech, positioning the stock squarely in the “AI infrastructure enabler” theme highlighted by outlets like The Verge and Investor’s Business Daily. ^[21]

Q3 2025 earnings: strong operations, mixed optics

Constellation reported third‑quarter 2025 results on November 7.

From the company’s earnings release:

GAAP EPS: $2.97, down from $3.82 a year earlier.
Adjusted operating EPS:$3.04, up from $2.74 in Q3 2024. ^[22]
Revenue: $6.57 billion, slightly above the prior year and ahead of analyst estimates of around $6.12 billion, according to Nasdaq/Zacks coverage. ^[23]
Nuclear operations: fleet output rose to 46,477 GWh, with an impressive 96.8% capacity factor (excluding certain minority interests), reflecting fewer unplanned outages and efficient refueling. ^[24]

Management narrowed full‑year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $9.05–$9.45 per share, signaling confidence in the trajectory of the business despite volatility in commodity markets and hedging results. ^[25]

Zacks noted that earnings per share came in modestly below consensus, while revenue beat expectations, calling the quarter “mixed” against a backdrop of strong nuclear performance and constructive policy support. ^[26]

Crane loan and nuclear policy tailwinds

On November 18, 2025, Constellation announced that the Crane Clean Energy Center restart is backed by a $1 billion DOE loan under the Energy Dominance Financing Program. ^[27]

According to the company and additional reporting:

This was the first time the DOE’s Loan Programs Office finalized a conditional commitment and closed on financing simultaneously, enabled by Constellation’s “strong balance sheet and creditworthiness.” ^[28]
The loan is expected to lower financing costs, leverage private capital, and help bring hundreds of megawatts of 24/7 nuclear power back onto the grid to support AI and broader electrification. ^[29]
An economic study cited by Constellation projects that restarting Crane will add 3,400 jobs, generate over $16 billion in GDP for Pennsylvania, and produce more than $3 billion in state and federal tax revenue over time. ^[30]

Separately, the U.S. Department of Energy recently announced up to $800 million in support for small modular reactor (SMR) projects with the Tennessee Valley Authority and Holtec, indicating that nuclear remains a core piece of U.S. clean‑energy policy. ^[31]

Taken together, this backdrop—federal nuclear support, DOE loans and AI‑driven load forecasts—is central to many bullish theses on CEG stock.

Dividend, yield and capital returns

CEG is not a high‑yield utility, but it does return cash to shareholders:

Constellation declared a quarterly dividend of $0.3878 per share in late October, with an ex‑dividend date of November 17, 2025 and payment on December 5, 2025. ^[32]
That implies an annualized dividend of $1.55 per share and a forward yield of roughly 0.4–0.5% at current prices, with a payout ratio under 20% based on trailing earnings. ^[33]

The relatively low payout is consistent with Constellation’s emphasis on reinvestment in nuclear life extensions, uprates and acquisitions like Calpine, rather than maximizing current income for shareholders.

Analyst forecasts and sentiment on CEG stock

Analyst coverage of Constellation has expanded rapidly as the stock joined the S&P 500 and rallied on its nuclear‑and‑AI narrative.

Consensus rating and targets

StockAnalysis and other aggregators show an average rating of “Buy” for CEG, with no Sell recommendations in the latest 12‑month window and a mix of Buy/Overweight and Hold ratings. ^[34]
Across sources like MarketWatch, TradingView and TickerNerd, the average 12‑month price target clusters around the low $400s (roughly $395–$405), implying high‑single‑digit to mid‑teens percentage upside from the current ~$360 level. ^[35]
Recent individual target moves include:
- Citigroup lifting its target from $337 to $368 (Hold).
- Mizuho raising from $335 to $390 (Hold).
- JP Morgan increasing from $391 to $422 (Overweight).
- KeyBanc nudging from $359 to $417 (Overweight).
- Wells Fargo initiating with a $478 Overweight target, one of the street’s most bullish calls. ^[36]

Fundamental forecasts

Analyst models compiled by StockAnalysis point to: ^[37]

Revenue rising from about $23.6 billion in 2024 to $24.4 billion in 2025 and $26.0 billion in 2026, a mid‑single‑digit growth profile for a large utility.
EPS is projected to dip to around $9.2 in 2025 (partly reflecting volatile nuclear production tax credit and hedge effects) before rebounding to roughly $11.0 in 2026, a nearly 19% jump.

Simply Wall St’s blended view is that Constellation’s DCF‑based fair value is higher than the current share price, while its P/E multiple is somewhat richer than its peer group but broadly in line with its own growth profile and risk. ^[38]

How recent analysis frames the bull and bear cases

Recent commentary from research sites and financial media tends to circle around a few recurring themes.

Bullish arguments

AI‑driven load growth and nuclear scarcity
- Seeking Alpha contributors describe Constellation as a “profit magnet” for AI‑era power demand, thanks to its fully depreciated nuclear fleet and long‑lived nuclear assets at a time when new large reactors are hard to build. ^[39]
- AI data centers, electrification and onshoring are all expected to push up wholesale power prices in key regions where Constellation operates, potentially benefiting its merchant generation earnings over time. ^[40]
Long‑term contracted cash flows with blue‑chip counterparties
- The Microsoft and Meta PPAs, along with the 10‑year GSA contract, give CEG decade‑plus visibility on a significant chunk of nuclear output, with counterparties that are unlikely to default. ^[41]
Policy and financing tailwinds
- DOE loans for Crane, broader federal support for nuclear and SMRs, and favorable production tax credits all act as structural tailwinds. ^[42]
Scale after Calpine
- The Calpine deal dramatically increases Constellation’s gas-fired generation capacity and trading scale, positioning it as an even more important player in balancing intermittent renewables and meeting data‑center demand. ^[43]

Bearish or cautious arguments

Rich valuation vs. traditional utilities
- With a P/E around 40x and a dividend yield well under 1%, CEG trades more like a growth stock than a typical regulated utility, leaving it vulnerable to corrections if sentiment toward AI or nuclear cools, or if interest rates stay higher for longer. ^[44]
Execution risk on nuclear restarts and life extensions
- Projects like Crane and future uprates or potential SMRs are complex, capital‑intensive and historically prone to delays and cost overruns, even with DOE support. ^[45]
Integration and divestiture risk around Calpine
- While management expects a “robust market” for the plants it must sell, the need to divest multiple gas assets at once could compress sale multiples or complicate operations in the near term. ^[46]
Commodity and policy uncertainty
- Constellation’s earnings still depend on power prices, hedging outcomes and regulatory frameworks. A change in nuclear incentives, carbon policy or transmission rules could alter returns on some investments.

What all this means for CEG stock right now

As of December 7, 2025, the setup for CEG stock can be summarized as follows:

Business momentum remains strong. Nuclear operations are running at high capacity factors, earnings guidance was narrowed rather than cut, and Constellation continues to land long‑dated contracts with some of the most creditworthy customers in the world. ^[47]
Strategic milestones are stacking up. The DOJ settlement on Calpine, the DOE loan for Crane, and Meta’s Clinton deal all add to a narrative in which Constellation is becoming a central pillar of U.S. baseload power in an AI‑driven grid. ^[48]
Valuation is the main question. At around 12–13% below its October peak but still up sharply year‑on‑year, CEG trades at a premium multiple that bakes in a lot of good news, even as most Wall Street targets suggest moderate further upside into 2026. ^[49]

For investors and traders watching CEG, the key variables over the next year will likely be:

The timing and economics of the Calpine close and divestitures.
Progress and costs at Crane/Three Mile Island and other life‑extension projects.
How fast AI‑related power demand actually materializes in Constellation’s core markets.
Whether the current policy environment for nuclear remains as favorable as it is today.