Medtronic PLC (MDT) Stock Outlook December 7, 2025: Price, Dividend, Hugo Robot FDA Win and 2026 Forecast

Updated: December 7, 2025

Key Takeaways

MDT stock is trading around $101 per share, giving Medtronic a market capitalization of roughly $130 billion and a trailing P/E near 27.5 with a forward P/E around 17. ^[1]
The company delivered a better‑than‑expected fiscal Q2 2026, raised full‑year guidance and has seen its share price climb roughly high‑teens to low‑20s percent over the past year, outpacing the broader market. ^[2]
New U.S. FDA clearance for the Hugo™ robotic‑assisted surgery system and Altaviva™ bladder‑control device approval expand Medtronic’s innovation story in high‑growth medtech niches. ^[3]
A third‑quarter fiscal 2026 dividend of $0.71 per share extends nearly five decades of consecutive dividend increases, with the current yield at about 2.8%. ^[4]
Activist investor Elliott Investment Management is now one of Medtronic’s largest shareholders, prompting board changes, new strategy committees and sharper focus on margin expansion and portfolio moves, including a planned spin‑off of the Diabetes business (MiniMed). ^[5]
As of December 7, 2025, Wall Street’s consensus rating on MDT is “Buy/Moderate Buy” with an average 12‑month price target in the $108–$110 range, implying mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit upside from current levels. ^[6]

1. Medtronic (MDT) Stock Snapshot on December 7, 2025

As of the latest completed trading session (Dec. 5, 2025), Medtronic’s NYSE‑listed shares closed at $101.36, with modest after‑hours trading around $101.31. ^[7]

Key stats at a glance:

Share price: $101.36
Market cap: ~$129.9 billion
Enterprise value: ~$150.7 billion ^[8]
52‑week range: about $79.29–$106.33 ^[9]
52‑week price change:+18.8% ^[10]
Beta (5‑year): ~0.7, indicating lower volatility than the overall market ^[11]
Trailing P/E: ~27.5
Forward P/E: ~17.3 ^[12]
Dividend yield: ~2.8% on an annual dividend of $2.84 per share ^[13]
Free cash‑flow yield: ~4% with about $5.2 billion of FCF over the last 12 months ^[14]
Net margin: ~13.7%; operating margin: ~19.6% ^[15]
Balance sheet: Current ratio ~2.4, debt‑to‑equity ~0.6, net debt about $20.7 billion ^[16]
Short interest: ~1% of shares outstanding
Institutional ownership: roughly 80–90% of the float, depending on source and methodology ^[17]

Trading over the last week has been choppy as markets digest macro headlines and rotations within healthcare. On Dec. 1, MDT fell about 1.9% to $103.34, underperforming the S&P 500 and Dow. A day later, it slipped another 1.3% to $102.03, leaving it around 4% below its recent 52‑week high of $106.33. ^[18]

Even so, post‑earnings commentary from Barron’s noted that by mid‑November the stock was up roughly 21% year‑to‑date, ahead of the S&P 500’s ~13% gain. ^[19]

2. Latest Medtronic Stock News: Earnings, Robots and Dividends

2.1 Fiscal Q2 2026: Beat and Guidance Raise

Medtronic’s most recent results came on November 18, 2025, for fiscal Q2 2026 (quarter ended Oct. 24, 2025). The company reported: ^[20]

Revenue: about $9.0 billion, up 6.6% year‑over‑year, with 5.5% organic growth.
GAAP EPS: about $1.07, up ~8% YoY.
Non‑GAAP (adjusted) EPS:$1.36, ahead of analyst expectations around $1.31.
Cardiovascular segment: roughly $3.44 billion in revenue, growing about 11% YoY—its fastest growth in over a decade excluding the pandemic era. ^[21]

After the earnings beat, Medtronic: ^[22]

Raised full‑year FY26 organic revenue growth guidance from ~5% to around 5.5%.
Lifted adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $5.62–$5.66, from a prior range of $5.50–$5.60.
Indicated that tariff headwinds, originally expected to cut as much as $350 million from profits, are now seen nearer $185 million, helped by supply‑chain adjustments. ^[23]

Simply Wall St highlighted that this quarter represented a 13% beat versus prior EPS forecasts, and that consensus now calls for 2026 revenue around $36.1 billion (+3.7% YoY) and statutory EPS growth of about 17% to $4.34, with a consensus long‑term price target around $110. ^[24]

A Star Tribune article noted the psychological milestone: Medtronic’s stock broke above $100 for the first time since 2022, rallying nearly 5% intraday despite a weak broader market, as investors cheered the beat and guidance raise. ^[25]

2.2 Hugo™ Robotic‑Assisted Surgery System Wins FDA Clearance

On December 3, 2025, the U.S. FDA granted clearance for Medtronic’s Hugo™ robotic‑assisted surgery (RAS) system for use in adult urologic procedures. ^[26]

Key points:

The clearance opens the U.S. market to a system that Medtronic has already been rolling out internationally, where it’s positioned as an alternative to Intuitive Surgical’s da Vinci platform. ^[27]
Hugo is a modular system designed to be more flexible on capital costs and OR setup, a potential draw for hospitals that want robotics capability without committing to a single, expensive mega‑platform. ^[28]
Analysts see the FDA win as a strategic milestone: Medtronic now has a credible surgical robotics offering in the world’s most lucrative medical‑device market, though it faces a strong entrenched competitor in Intuitive Surgical. ^[29]

For MDT stock, Hugo’s clearance is less about near‑term revenue and more about optionality: it strengthens Medtronic’s growth narrative in one of medtech’s highest‑multiple categories.

2.3 Altaviva™ Device: New Neuromodulation Option for Bladder Control

Earlier this year, on September 19, 2025, Medtronic received FDA approval for the Altaviva™ implantable tibial neuromodulation (ITNM) device to treat urge urinary incontinence, a symptom of overactive bladder. ^[30]

Highlights from the launch:

Altaviva is implanted near the ankle via a minimally invasive procedure that doesn’t require sedation or imaging, and patients typically go home with therapy already activated. ^[31]
The device offers an estimated 15‑year battery life, delivers automated therapy and is MRI‑compatible. ^[32]
Medtronic estimates that around 16 million U.S. adults suffer from urge urinary incontinence, part of a much larger group of patients with bladder‑control issues. ^[33]

On the Q2 earnings call, CEO Geoff Martha called Altaviva, renal denervation and pulse‑field ablation “game‑changer” technologies that will help power Medtronic’s growth trajectory. ^[34]

2.4 Dividend: 48th Consecutive Annual Increase

On December 4, 2025, the board declared a third‑quarter FY26 cash dividend of $0.71 per share, payable January 16, 2026 to shareholders of record on December 26, 2025.

According to StockAnalysis and MarketBeat data: ^[35]

The annualized dividend is $2.84 per share, equal to a 2.8% yield at the current price.
Medtronic has increased its dividend for roughly 49 consecutive years, cementing its status as a dividend growth stalwart in the medical‑device sector.
The payout ratio on trailing earnings is around 77%, with strong free cash flow supporting the distribution.

For income‑oriented investors, MDT currently offers a higher yield than peers like Abbott (≈1.9%) and close to Johnson & Johnson (≈2.5%), though at a somewhat higher earnings multiple than those diversified healthcare giants. ^[36]

3. Elliott Activism and the MiniMed Diabetes Spin‑Off

3.1 Elliott Investment Management Steps In

In August 2025, activist investor Elliott Investment Management disclosed that it had become one of Medtronic’s largest shareholders, prompting a series of governance and strategic changes. ^[37]

In response, Medtronic:

Appointed two seasoned medtech executives, John Groetelaars and Bill Jellison, to its board as independent directors.
Created a Growth Committee, focused on tuck‑in M&A, R&D investment and portfolio moves, including execution of the diabetes separation.
Created an Operating Committee, focused on operational efficiency, margin expansion and earnings acceleration. ^[38]
Announced plans to host an Investor Day in mid‑2026 to lay out updated strategic priorities and financial targets. ^[39]

Elliott partner Marc Steinberg described Medtronic as entering a “new chapter of exceptional value creation,” citing innovation in attractive medtech markets and a renewed emphasis on portfolio simplification and execution. ^[40]

From an MDT‑stock standpoint, activism typically implies:

Pressure to improve margins and capital allocation, potentially supporting EPS growth.
Greater scrutiny around underperforming divisions and acquisitions.
A higher probability of shareholder‑friendly steps like spin‑offs, buybacks or more disciplined R&D spending.

3.2 Diabetes Business Spin‑Off: MiniMed

On May 21, 2025, Medtronic announced its intent to separate its Diabetes business into a standalone, publicly traded company, with the working name MiniMed confirmed in June. ^[41]

Key features of the planned transaction:

The diabetes unit generates about $2.7–2.8 billion in annual revenue and has been growing at double‑digit rates in recent quarters. ^[42]
The separation is expected to occur within 18 months of the May 2025 announcement, likely via an IPO followed by a split‑off, and is intended to be tax‑free for U.S. shareholders. ^[43]
The new company will focus on an integrated diabetes ecosystem—MiniMed 780G insulin pumps, continuous glucose monitors and smart insulin pens—and be headquartered in Northridge, California, led by current diabetes head Que Dallara. ^[44]
Analysts estimate the spin‑off could lift Medtronic’s gross margin by ~50 basis points and operating margin by ~100 basis points, while allowing both entities to be valued more cleanly by investors. ^[45]

In the short term, the spin‑off announcement caused some volatility—shares dipped on May 21 even as Medtronic beat Q4 2025 earnings expectations—but consensus has largely shifted to viewing the move as strategic portfolio sharpening rather than retreat from diabetes. ^[46]

For MDT shareholders, the diabetes separation plus Elliott’s involvement together suggest:

A more focused, higher‑margin “core Medtronic” oriented around cardiovascular, neuroscience and surgical devices. ^[47]
A separately traded diabetes pure play that may command a growth‑stock multiple if execution remains strong.

4. What Wall Street Expects: Forecasts and Price Targets

4.1 Consensus Earnings and Revenue Outlook

Across major data providers:

StockAnalysis aggregates analyst estimates that imply:
- Average price target:$108.63 (about 7% above the current share price).
- Consensus rating:“Buy”, based on around 18 analysts.
- Five‑year forecasts: revenue growth of roughly 6% annually and EPS growth around 16% per year. ^[48]
Simply Wall St’s post‑earnings summary (Nov. 28, 2025) reports:
- 2026 revenue forecast: about $36.1 billion, implying ~3.7% growth versus the past 12 months.
- Statutory EPS forecast: about $4.34, up roughly 17% year‑over‑year.
- Consensus price target: around $110, with most estimates between $92 and $125. ^[49]
Zacks recently upgraded MDT to a Rank #2 (Buy), noting that the consensus EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending April 2026 has risen to around $5.65, up about 0.5% over the last three months, which is a positive signal under Zacks’ earnings‑revision‑driven methodology. ^[50]

Collectively, these forecasts suggest that analysts expect mid‑single‑digit top‑line growth but faster double‑digit EPS growth, driven by:

Operating leverage and cost initiatives (including those pushed by Elliott and the new Operating Committee). ^[51]
Mix shift into higher‑margin technologies like PFA ablation, renal denervation, robotics and neuromodulation. ^[52]
The diabetes spin‑off’s potential to enhance margin profile and capital allocation. ^[53]

Of course, these are projections, not guarantees, and they depend heavily on execution in new product launches and macro factors such as tariffs and reimbursement.

4.2 Latest Valuation Takes (December 7, 2025)

Two fresh pieces of analysis published today, December 7, 2025, give additional color:

MarketBeat’s new note on institutional buying highlights that Cary Street Partners Financial LLC increased its MDT stake by 19% in Q2, bringing its holdings to about 97,941 shares (~$8.5 million). The article notes that large players like Vanguard, Geode, BNY Mellon, Invesco and Norges Bank also hold substantial positions, and that approximately 82% of MDT shares are owned by institutions and hedge funds. It reiterates the “Moderate Buy” consensus rating and a $110.44 average price target. ^[54]
Simply Wall St’s December 7 narrative argues that with MDT closing near $101.36, the stock trades at roughly an 8% discount to its estimated intrinsic value of about $109.82, based on their cash‑flow‑driven fair‑value model. The site describes Medtronic as an established dividend payer with modest undervaluation, while warning that sustained margin pressure or mis‑execution on product launches could erode that upside. ^[55]

In short, Wall Street currently sees MDT as modestly undervalued rather than a deep bargain—a steady, high‑quality medtech name where incremental growth, innovation and discipline could justify a somewhat higher multiple.

5. Valuation vs. Healthcare Peers

To put Medtronic’s valuation in context:

Medtronic (MDT)
- Trailing P/E: ~27.5
- Forward P/E: ~17.3
- Dividend yield: ~2.8% ^[56]
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – diversified pharma/medtech
- P/E: ~19.4
- Dividend yield: ~2.5% with a long track record of dividend growth. ^[57]
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) – diversified devices & diagnostics
- P/E: ~15.6
- Dividend yield: ~1.9%; more than five decades of consecutive raises. ^[58]
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) – pure‑play surgical robotics
- P/E: roughly mid‑70s on a trailing basis, no dividend. ^[59]

Roughly speaking:

MDT trades at a premium to slower‑growth diversified names like JNJ and ABT, which makes sense given its more device‑heavy mix and innovation options.
It trades at a large discount to high‑growth robotics pure‑plays like Intuitive Surgical, reflecting slower expected growth and more pricing/regulatory risk.
The 2.8% yield plus mid‑teens EPS growth forecast positions MDT as a “growth‑and‑income” hybrid: not as fast as the pure innovators, but offering more income than many growth stocks.

6. Key Opportunities and Risks for MDT Shareholders

6.1 Potential Upside Drivers

Innovation pipeline firing on multiple cylinders
- Cardiac Ablation Solutions grew more than 70% YoY on PFA adoption, and Medtronic cites strong demand globally for its Affera‑based system. ^[60]
- Renal denervation (Symplicity Spyral) now has Medicare coverage in the U.S., opening a multibillion‑dollar addressable market in drug‑resistant hypertension. ^[61]
- Altaviva and other neuromodulation devices target large, under‑treated incontinence populations with differentiated, minimally invasive technology. ^[62]
- Hugo robotics gives Medtronic an entry into one of medtech’s most sought‑after growth categories. ^[63]
Portfolio reshaping and activism tailwinds
- The MiniMed diabetes spin‑off should sharpen Medtronic’s focus on high‑margin core franchises and may unlock value if both entities trade closer to peers. ^[64]
- Elliott’s involvement, plus the new Growth and Operating Committees, increases the odds of disciplined capital allocation and ongoing cost improvements. ^[65]
Solid cash generation and shareholder returns
- With ~$5.2 billion in annual free cash flow and a dividend plus buyback “shareholder yield” above 4%, Medtronic has room to keep rewarding shareholders while funding R&D and tuck‑in M&A. ^[66]

6.2 Main Risks to Watch

Tariff and macro headwinds
- New tariffs on China‑linked medical products could raise Medtronic’s costs by hundreds of millions annually; management now estimates a net hit of about $185 million in FY26 after mitigation, but earlier commentary pointed to a potential $200–$350 million net impact if conditions worsen. ^[67]
Execution risk in major launches
- Hugo robotics, renal denervation and Altaviva must move beyond regulatory milestones to real‑world adoption and profitability. Any stumbling—safety issues, reimbursement delays, or slow surgeon uptake—could undercut the growth narrative that today’s valuation assumes. ^[68]
Competitive and pricing pressures
- Medtronic faces strong competitors in nearly every category—Intuitive in robotics, Abbott and others in cardiovascular and diabetes, as well as pressure from hospital and payer cost controls. Margin leverage depends on maintaining innovation premiums in this environment. ^[69]
Spin‑off and restructuring complexity
- The diabetes separation and any future divestitures/spin‑offs involve execution, regulatory and market‑timing risks. If markets are volatile or operational separation proves tougher than expected, the value unlock could be delayed or diminished. ^[70]
Balance‑sheet leverage and interest‑rate sensitivity
- With about $29 billion in debt and a net debt position over $20 billion, Medtronic is not over‑levered but is still exposed to financing costs if interest rates remain elevated longer than expected. ^[71]

7. Bottom Line for Investors

As of December 7, 2025, Medtronic PLC (MDT) looks like a high‑quality, blue‑chip medtech company in the middle of a strategic reset:

Operationally, it’s delivering solid mid‑single‑digit top‑line growth, expanding key high‑growth platforms (PFA, renal denervation, robotics, neuromodulation) and beating earnings expectations while nudging guidance higher. ^[72]
Strategically, it’s spinning out its Diabetes business and working with an activist investor to simplify the portfolio, streamline operations and potentially unlock further value. ^[73]
From a valuation perspective, most recent research sees MDT as modestly undervalued, with analyst targets clustered around $108–$110 and fair‑value estimates just above the current share price—leaving room for upside if the company executes, but little margin for major missteps. ^[74]

For investors, the key questions into 2026 will be:

Can Medtronic sustain double‑digit EPS growth through margin expansion, tariffs mitigation and disciplined capital allocation?
Will Hugo, Altaviva, renal denervation and other growth drivers scale quickly enough to justify today’s mid‑20s P/E, especially as high‑growth peers remain richly valued?
Does the MiniMed spin‑off + Elliott’s involvement ultimately lift the multiple, or simply stabilize it while providing a more defensive, income‑oriented profile?

Medtronic remains a core holding candidate for many healthcare and dividend‑growth portfolios, but the stock now reflects a healthier, not “distressed,” picture. Future returns are likely to hinge more on consistent execution and capital discipline than on multiple expansion alone.

Important: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.