ConocoPhillips Stock (COP) on December 7, 2025: Latest News, Analyst Forecasts and What It Means for Investors

Ticker: NYSE: COP • Date: December 7, 2025

ConocoPhillips stock is trading just under $94 per share after a modest rebound in recent weeks. Shares have climbed roughly mid‑single digits over the past week and month, but the stock is still negative year to date, reflecting pressure from softer oil prices and company‑specific restructuring news. ^[1]

At the same time, the company has delivered solid third‑quarter results, raised its dividend, tightened costs, and laid out a cautious but cash‑generative outlook for 2026. Analysts broadly rate ConocoPhillips stock a “Moderate Buy” to “Buy” with double‑digit upside over the next 12 months. ^[2]

Below is a detailed roundup of the latest news, forecasts and analyses as of December 7, 2025, to help you understand where COP stands now.

1. ConocoPhillips Stock Snapshot: Price and Performance

• Latest price: Around $93.7 per share, with a recent intraday range roughly between $92.5 and $95.0. ^[3]
• Short‑term move: Over the last week, COP is up about 5%, adding to roughly 4% gains over the past month, but it remains down around 8% year to date. ^[4]

Longer‑term, performance is mixed:

• Over the past one and three years, ConocoPhillips has lagged the S&P 500, even when dividends are included.
• Over five years, however, COP has significantly outperformed the index, with total returns (including dividends) more than doubling, versus a much smaller gain for the S&P 500. ^[5]

In other words, ConocoPhillips has been a strong long‑term compounder, but the last couple of years have reminded investors just how cyclical an oil producer’s earnings – and share price – can be.

2. Q3 2025 Earnings: Solid Beat, Bigger Dividend, Leaner Cost Base

ConocoPhillips’ third‑quarter 2025 results, released on November 6, set the tone for much of the recent analyst commentary. ^[6]

Key highlights:

• GAAP EPS:$1.38 per share.
• Adjusted EPS:$1.61 per share, beating Wall Street estimates of about $1.41. ^[7]
• Revenue: Around $15.0 billion, up roughly 14% year over year, driven by higher production and the Marathon Oil acquisition, despite lower realized commodity prices. ^[8]
• Cash generation: About $5.9 billion in cash from operating activities and $5.4 billion in operating cash flow (CFO) in the quarter. ^[9]
• Production: Roughly 2.399 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOED), about 4% higher on an underlying basis vs. last year. ^[10]

The company also used that cash flow to reward shareholders:

• Shareholder returns in Q3:
  • ~$2.2 billion returned, including
  • $1.3 billion in share repurchases and
  • $1.0 billion in ordinary dividends. ^[11]

2025 and 2026 Guidance

ConocoPhillips has been tightening its cost base while nudging production higher:

• 2025 production guidance raised to ~2.375 MMBOED (from 2.35–2.37). ^[12]
• 2025 adjusted operating cost guidance lowered to $10.6 billion. ^[13]

Preliminary 2026 guidance points to a company focused on efficiency rather than aggressive volume growth:

• Capex: Around $12 billion, about $0.5 billion lower than the midpoint of 2025 guidance.
• Adjusted operating costs: About $10.2 billion, roughly $0.4 billion lower than 2025.
• Underlying production growth: Only 0–2%, reflecting a “disciplined” stance. ^[14]

Management also reiterated its long‑term goal of delivering about $7 billion in incremental free cash flow by 2029, including roughly $1 billion per year from 2026–2028, backed by major projects like the Willow oil development in Alaska and multiple LNG projects. ^[15]

3. Major Projects: Willow, LNG and Portfolio Reshaping

ConocoPhillips is reshaping its asset base around large, long‑life, low‑cost projects:

• Willow (Alaska):
  • Project capital has been revised up to $8.5–$9.0 billion, citing inflation and cost escalation in Alaska and marine work.
  • The project is nearing 50% completion, with first oil now targeted for early 2029. ^[16]
• LNG portfolio:
  • The company is progressing three equity LNG projects – North Field East and South in Qatar, and Port Arthur LNG on the U.S. Gulf Coast.
  • Total LNG project capital guidance has been reduced to about $3.4 billion after a $0.6 billion credit; roughly 80% of total LNG capital is already spent, and projects remain on schedule, with first LNG from NFE expected in 2026. ^[17]
• Dispositions and portfolio high‑grading:
  • More than $3 billion of assets were sold in 2025, including a full exit from the Anadarko Basin, with a target to complete $5 billion in disposals by 2026. ^[18]

Strategically, ConocoPhillips has spent the last several years bulk­ing up its low‑cost resource base through deals such as Concho Resources, Shell’s Permian assets, the Surmont oil sands stake, and most recently Marathon Oil, while trimming non‑core positions. ^[19]

4. Workforce Cuts and Restructuring: 20–25% Headcount Reduction

One of the most attention‑grabbing developments in 2025 has been ConocoPhillips’ plan to cut 20–25% of its global workforce as part of a broad restructuring program. ^[20]

According to a September 3 Reuters report:

• The company, with roughly 13,000 employees, expects 2,600–3,250 jobs to be eliminated, most of them by year‑end 2025.
• The initiative is tied to a program internally dubbed “Competitive Edge”, with Boston Consulting Group advising.
• Management highlighted that controllable costs per barrel had risen from about $11 in 2021 to $13 in 2024, and argued that the organization needs to “streamline” to stay competitive.
• Shares fell about 4.5% on the day the cuts were announced, outpacing the broader decline in energy stocks. ^[21]

The restructuring is meant to complement the capital‑spending discipline outlined in the 2026 guidance, but it also introduces execution risk and potential near‑term disruption as roles and reporting lines are reshuffled.

5. Dividend, Buybacks and Shareholder Returns

ConocoPhillips has leaned heavily into shareholder returns as part of its investment case.

Dividend

• In Q3, the company increased its ordinary quarterly dividend by 8% to $0.84 per share, payable on December 1, 2025. ^[22]
• At a share price around $93–94, that equates to an annualized yield of roughly 3.5–3.6%. ^[23]

Buybacks and Total Capital Return

Earlier in 2025, ConocoPhillips laid out a plan to return about $10 billion to shareholders for the full year, with an expected split of roughly 60% share repurchases and 40% dividends. ^[24]

Combined with the Q3 figures, that implies:

• A commitment to ongoing buyback activity, assuming cash flows hold up.
• A focus on “top‑quartile” dividend growth within the S&P 500, as reiterated by CEO Ryan Lance. ^[25]

For income‑oriented investors, ConocoPhillips offers a relatively high and growing base dividend plus the potential uplift from buybacks if shares trade below analysts’ assessment of fair value.

6. Wall Street View: Ratings, Targets and Earnings Forecasts

Across Wall Street, sentiment towards ConocoPhillips is broadly positive, though not uniformly bullish.

Consensus Rating and Price Targets

• 26 analysts tracked by MarketBeat currently rate COP a “Moderate Buy”, with 19 Buys and 7 Holds, and no Sells. ^[26]
• The average 12‑month price target clusters around $114–115 per share, implying roughly 22–23% upside from the mid‑$90s.
• Reported ranges:
  • Low: around $98–100 per share.
  • High: between $137 and $143 per share, depending on the source. ^[27]

Some brokerages have recently trimmed their targets rather than abandoning the stock:

• UBS maintained a Buy rating but cut its target from $122 to $117.
• Susquehanna kept a Positive view while nudging its target from $113 to $110.
• Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight and slightly reduced its target from $123 to $122.
• Wells Fargo initiated coverage with an Equal‑Weight rating and a $100 price target. ^[28]

Taken together, the Street appears to see ConocoPhillips as:

• Structurally attractive – thanks to its scale, portfolio quality and capital‑return program.
• But also sensitive to the macro environment, leading to more conservative targets than in earlier commodity up‑cycles.

Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Analyst models (as aggregated by StockAnalysis) suggest a near‑term earnings downshift, even as revenue rises:

• 2024 revenue: ~$56.5 billion, earnings ~$9.2 billion. ^[29]
• 2025 revenue: expected to increase about 10% to ~$62.3 billion, but EPS is forecast to fall from 7.81 to 6.59 (‑15.6%), reflecting lower average prices and integration costs.
• 2026 revenue: projected to decline modestly to ~$59.5 billion, with EPS easing further to ~6.34. ^[30]

In short, Wall Street expects strong but normalizing profitability, not the super‑cycle earnings seen at the peak of the post‑pandemic oil rally.

7. Technical and AI‑Driven Forecasts: What the Charts Are Saying

For short‑term traders, technical and algorithmic views can add another layer to the fundamental story.

The AI‑based analysis platform Intellectia currently rates COP a “Strong Buy candidate” based on its mix of technical signals, even though its mid‑term trend is described as bearish. ^[31]

Key points from their December 7, 2025 update:

• Last close: $93.69, up 0.61% on December 5. ^[32]
• The stock has risen about 7% over the last 10 trading days, but with some signs of cooling momentum. ^[33]
• Their model identifies 4 bullish and 4 bearish technical signals (e.g., positive MACD and momentum, but overbought stochastic indicators).
• Short‑term resistance is projected around $95.9 and $99.5, while support is seen near $84.3 and $80.7. A break above resistance would flash additional buy signals; a break below support would signal further downside risk. ^[34]

Notably, Intellectia’s longer‑term price projections are more cautious:

• 2026 average price forecast: around $80.7, implying negative total return vs. today’s price if their model is right.
• 2030 forecast: roughly $95.6, only slightly above current levels. ^[35]

These algorithmic forecasts can be useful for gauging market sentiment and positioning, but they rely heavily on historical price behavior and should be viewed as probabilistic, not predictive guarantees.

8. Institutional and Insider Activity: Who’s Buying COP Now?

Recent SEC filings show active institutional trading in ConocoPhillips shares, with some large funds increasing exposure and others trimming.

Institutional Investors

As of the latest data cited by MarketBeat, institutional investors own more than 80% of COP’s float, underscoring its status as a core energy holding in many portfolios. ^[36]

Recent moves (all based on Q2 filings reported on December 7, 2025): ^[37]

• Marshall Wace LLP
  • Increased its holding by 125% to about 685,000 shares, worth roughly $61.5 million – a significant vote of confidence from a major hedge fund.
• StoneX Group Inc.
  • Raised its position by over 500%, to about 29,000 shares, valued near $2.6 million.
• Bollard Group LLC
  • Boosted its stake by 11.6% to roughly 142,000 shares, valued around $12.7 million.

On the other side:

• Gabelli Funds LLC
  • Trimmed its COP stake by 5.9%, selling 31,700 shares but still holding over 500,000 shares.
• Edgestream Partners L.P.
  • Cut its position by 76.5%, selling 24,064 shares and leaving just 7,388 shares in the portfolio.

The net picture: large institutions remain deeply involved, with notable additions from some funds and risk trimming from others, consistent with a stock that is still widely owned but exposed to macro and commodity volatility.

Insider Buying

Insider activity has tilted positive:

• On November 10, 2025, Director William H. McRaven (retired U.S. Navy admiral) bought 5,768 shares at about $86.68, a purchase close to $500,000. ^[38]
• GuruFocus data show four insider buys and no insider sells over the past year, and suggest that COP looked “modestly undervalued” versus its GF Value at the time of McRaven’s purchase. ^[39]

Insider buying does not guarantee future performance, but directors committing personal capital – especially after a price pullback – tends to be read as a confidence signal by many investors.

9. How the Market Is Framing ConocoPhillips in 2025

Recent long‑form analyses paint ConocoPhillips as a strong but cyclical cash‑flow machine:

• A Nasdaq‑hosted piece from The Motley Fool highlights that while COP has underperformed the S&P 500 over one‑ and three‑year periods, it has dramatically outpaced the index over five years, particularly when dividends are reinvested. ^[40]
• The same analysis ties much of the volatility to oil prices, noting that Brent crude is down about 14% in the last year and 25% over three years, closely mirroring COP’s share‑price drift over those periods. ^[41]
• Importantly, ConocoPhillips has transformed its portfolio since 2020 with a series of large acquisitions, positioning itself to generate more free cash flow at lower oil prices than in previous cycles. ^[42]

Another recent analysis characterizes COP as a “GARP” (growth at a reasonable price) opportunity, arguing that the combination of:

• Improved asset quality,
• Solid balance sheet,
• Growing dividends, and
• Reasonable valuation metrics (P/E in the low‑teens)

gives the stock a balanced risk‑reward profile for investors with a multi‑year horizon. ^[43]

10. Bull vs. Bear Case for ConocoPhillips Stock

Bull Case

Supporters of COP typically point to:

1. Robust free‑cash‑flow outlook
   • Management’s target of $7 billion incremental FCF by 2029 and $1 billion per year growth from 2026–2028 suggests meaningful capacity for buybacks and dividends, even with only modest production growth. ^[44]
2. Shareholder‑friendly capital returns
   • A 3.5–3.6% and growing dividend yield, combined with a $10 billion 2025 capital‑return plan heavily skewed to buybacks, can drive attractive total returns if the share price remains below analysts’ fair‑value estimates. ^[45]
3. High‑quality, diversified portfolio
   • Scale across premium shale basins, long‑life oil sands, and LNG gives ConocoPhillips multiple levers to generate cash and shift capex among regions as economics change. ^[46]
4. Analyst upside and institutional support
   • Consensus price targets imply low‑20% upside over the next year, and large funds like Marshall Wace and Bollard Group have recently increased their positions. ^[47]

Bear Case

Skeptics focus on several risks:

1. Oil and gas price volatility
   • If Brent and U.S. crude stay subdued or fall further, ConocoPhillips’ cash flow and buyback capacity could undershoot current expectations – a key reason some quant models see weaker returns by 2026. ^[48]
2. Execution risk on restructuring and megaprojects
   • Cutting 20–25% of the workforce while executing multi‑billion‑dollar projects like Willow and LNG expansions is complex and may create operational risk, cost overruns, or delays. ^[49]
3. Flattening growth profile
   • With 2026 production growth guided to just 0–2%, the story leans heavily on cost discipline and shareholder returns rather than volume growth, which may cap multiple expansion if investors rotate to higher‑growth names. ^[50]
4. Long‑term energy transition pressures
   • As a pure‑play oil and gas producer, ConocoPhillips remains exposed to policy, ESG and demand risks over the longer term, particularly if decarbonization accelerates. (This is a structural sector risk rather than a COP‑specific misstep.)

11. Key Catalysts to Watch

Looking forward from December 7, 2025, investors in ConocoPhillips stock will likely focus on:

1. FY 2025 earnings (expected February 5, 2026)
   • Updated 2026–2027 guidance, capital‑return plans, and any commentary on the impact of restructuring will be closely watched. ^[51]
2. Oil and gas price trends
   • Changes in Brent and WTI pricing will feed directly into sentiment on COP’s cash‑flow outlook.
3. Progress on Willow and LNG
   • Any further cost revisions or schedule changes for Willow or the LNG projects could alter ConocoPhillips’ medium‑term FCF and growth story. ^[52]
4. Updates on workforce restructuring
   • Investors will watch for evidence that the “Competitive Edge” program hits cost‑saving goals without harming operational performance. ^[53]
5. Ongoing analyst revisions and institutional flows
   • New 2026+ price targets, rating changes, and further 13F filings will show whether big money is adding, trimming, or holding steady.

Final Thoughts

As of December 7, 2025, ConocoPhillips stock sits at an interesting crossroads:

• The fundamental engine looks strong – high‑quality assets, solid cash generation, rising dividends, and active buybacks.
• Wall Street generally likes the story, with a consensus of Moderate Buy/Buy and low‑20% implied upside over the next year. ^[54]
• Yet the share price reflects real concerns about commodity volatility, restructuring risk, and a more muted growth profile in 2026.

For long‑term investors comfortable with energy‑sector cyclicality, COP remains a core, large‑cap oil and gas name with substantial shareholder returns baked into the strategy. For shorter‑term traders, technical signals suggest potential resistance just below $100 and a need to keep a close eye on support levels in the mid‑$80s. ^[55]

As always, this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Anyone considering an investment in ConocoPhillips stock should evaluate their own risk tolerance, time horizon, and portfolio needs, and consider consulting a qualified financial adviser.

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