Newmont Corporation (NEM) Stock Outlook: Analyst Upgrades, Gold Supercycle and 2026 Forecasts as of December 7, 2025

Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM), the world’s largest gold producer, heads into year‑end 2025 riding one of the strongest rallies in its modern history. The stock now trades just under $90 a share, after gaining roughly 135–145% year to date, dramatically outperforming both the broader market and most peers. ^[1]

Behind that surge is a rare combination of record gold prices near $4,300 per ounce, aggressive cost-cutting after the Newcrest acquisition, and a step-change in free cash flow that has turned Newmont into one of the key ways to play the current “gold supercycle.” ^[2]

At the same time, the rally has sharpened the debate over valuation. Wall Street remains broadly bullish, with most brokerages rating NEM a “Buy” or “Strong Buy” and price targets clustering above today’s level, but a handful of firms now argue that the stock has run ahead of fundamentals. ^[3]

Below is a detailed look at the latest news, forecasts and analysis on Newmont stock as of December 7, 2025, aimed at investors following NEM on Google News and Google Discover.

Newmont Stock Today: Price, Performance and Valuation

As of the latest close, Newmont trades around $89–90 per share, giving the company a market capitalization close to $98–99 billion. ^[4]

Key snapshot metrics from recent data:

Share price: ~$89.8
52‑week range: roughly $36.9–$98.6
Forward P/E multiple: low‑ to mid‑teens based on 2025–2026 earnings estimates
Dividend yield: about 1.1% on a $0.25 quarterly dividend ($1.00 annualized) ^[5]
Balance sheet: very low leverage; Newmont ended Q3 with near‑zero net debt and over $9.6 billion of total liquidity. ^[6]
Ownership: roughly 69–80% of the float is in institutional hands, underlining strong interest from professional investors. ^[7]

Performance-wise, Newmont has been one of 2025’s standout large caps. Various analyses estimate that NEM is up roughly 135–147% year to date, far outpacing the S&P 500 and even the gold‑mining sector. ^[8]

Several factors underpin this rally:

Gold’s explosive move – Gold futures are up around 60% in 2025 and have repeatedly set new record highs above $4,300/oz, as investors price in U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical risk and de‑dollarisation trends. ^[9]
High operating leverage – Newmont’s cost structure means a large portion of every extra dollar of gold price drops straight to the bottom line, supercharging earnings and free cash flow.
Rerating from “quality plus yield” to “growth plus yield” – After years of trading more like a defensive income stock, Newmont is now being valued more like a growth name leveraged to a structural precious‑metals bull market. ^[10]

The result: NEM is no longer a “cheap turnaround” story. The big question for late 2025 and 2026 is whether the current earnings power is sustainable enough to justify another leg higher, or whether the stock needs a period of consolidation.

Latest Company News: Restructuring, New CEO and Portfolio Moves

Project Catalyst and workforce restructuring

In November, Reuters reported that Newmont’s integration of the Newcrest acquisition is being driven by a sweeping restructuring known internally as “Project Catalyst.” An internal memo showed that changes in role levels, job eliminations and removal of unfilled positions have impacted about 16% of jobs company‑wide, with the goal of simplifying the organization and cutting costs. ^[11]

Newmont told staff the restructuring was completed a month ahead of schedule, aiming to minimize uncertainty for employees. The company has roughly 22,200 employees and 20,400 contractors globally, underscoring the scale of the exercise. ^[12]

Management frames these moves as essential to:

capturing Newcrest synergies,
lowering the cost base in a higher‑inflation environment, and
focusing capital on high‑return “tier one” assets such as in Nevada, Ghana and Australia. ^[13]

Ahafo North and the growth pipeline

On the growth side, Newmont has quietly delivered on one of its key greenfield projects. The Ahafo North mine in Ghana reached its first gold pour earlier this year and achieved commercial production in October 2025. ^[14]

According to company and analyst commentary, Ahafo North is expected to produce roughly 275,000–325,000 ounces of gold annually over an initial 13‑year mine life, making it a cornerstone asset in Newmont’s Africa portfolio. ^[15]

Combined with existing operations, Newmont reported 1.4 million ounces of attributable gold production in Q3 2025 and 4.44 million ounces year‑to‑date, plus substantial copper output from Newcrest‑related assets. ^[16]

CEO transition: Natascha Viljoen to take the helm in 2026

Another major development is leadership change. CEO Tom Palmer will retire at the end of 2025 after more than a decade with the company, and President & COO Natascha Viljoen will become CEO on January 1, 2026. She will be the first woman to lead Newmont in its 100‑plus‑year history. ^[17]

Viljoen previously ran Anglo American Platinum and has over 30 years of mining experience across multiple commodities and continents. Newmont’s board and Palmer himself have highlighted her track record in safety, operational discipline, and integrating complex portfolios, which are exactly the skills needed as Newmont digests Newcrest and pushes through Project Catalyst. ^[18]

The market generally views the transition as continuity with a more operations‑focused tilt, rather than a radical strategic reset.

Barrick’s North American spin‑off and potential M&A angles

While not a Newmont initiative, a key industry story with direct implications for NEM is Barrick’s plan to spin off its North American gold assets into a new listed company. Reuters reports that the proposed “NewCo” would include Barrick’s stakes in Nevada Gold Mines (the huge joint venture with Newmont), Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic and the Fourmile discovery in Nevada. ^[19]

One analyst quoted by Reuters said this packaging could create “a vehicle that is likely to become an acquisition target for Newmont,” reflecting long‑running speculation that Newmont may eventually seek full control of Nevada Gold Mines, the world’s largest gold‑producing complex. ^[20]

A separate analysis from Simply Wall St notes that Newmont is reportedly evaluating structures to gain full control of the Nevada JV assets, including options ranging from buying Barrick’s stake in the venture to pursuing a full Barrick takeover followed by asset sales. ^[21]

For now, this remains strategic speculation rather than a formal bid. But it is an important part of the medium‑term story: large‑scale M&A could be a powerful growth lever—or a source of execution and balance‑sheet risk—depending on price and structure.

Q3 2025 Earnings: Record Free Cash Flow and Stronger Guidance

Newmont’s latest quarterly numbers, released on October 23, 2025, provide the fundamental backbone for the stock’s re‑rating.

Key Q3 2025 highlights:

Net income: about $1.8 billion, with adjusted EPS of $1.71, beating consensus estimates around $1.27. ^[22]
Revenue: roughly $5.5 billion, about 20% year‑over‑year growth and ahead of Street expectations. ^[23]
Free cash flow: a record $1.6 billion for the quarter, marking the fourth consecutive quarter with more than $1 billion in FCF. ^[24]
Operating cash flow: approximately $2.3 billion, despite some adverse working‑capital timing. ^[25]
Production: about 1.4 million gold ounces and 35,000 tonnes of copper, mainly from core managed operations. ^[26]
Capital returns: Newmont has returned roughly $823 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks since the prior earnings call, and has executed about $3.3 billion in share repurchases under a $6 billion authorization. ^[27]
Dividend: the board declared a $0.25 per share quarterly dividend payable December 22, 2025, to shareholders of record at the close of business on November 26. ^[28]

Crucially, management also improved 2025 cost and capital guidance, citing progress on cost‑savings initiatives and deferral of some capital spend, while reaffirming its production and unit‑cost outlook in a higher gold price environment. ^[29]

Rating agencies have taken notice. Moody’s upgraded Newmont’s credit rating to A3 with a stable outlook, citing the strengthened balance sheet, robust liquidity, and disciplined financial policy. ^[30]

This combination—surging revenue, expanding margins, record free cash flow and a cleaner balance sheet—is the core reason multiple analysts have moved Newmont into their “Strong Buy” or “top pick” lists in late 2025. ^[31]

Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets (December 2025)

Consensus remains positive

Across major data providers, Newmont continues to carry a broadly bullish analyst profile:

StockAnalysis.com: 9 covering analysts rate NEM a “Strong Buy”, with an average 12‑month price target of $99.33, implying roughly 10–11% upside from recent levels. Target range: $72–$125. ^[32]
MarketBeat: collating 21 analyst price targets, the average is $93.22, with a high of $125 and a low of $40, implying modest upside from the recent $89.84 print. ^[33]
GuruFocus: based on about 20 analysts, the average target is ~$103, with an “Outperform” average recommendation (around 1.9 on a 1–5 scale where 1 is Strong Buy). ^[34]
Public.com: its December 7 snapshot shows 9 analysts with a “Buy” consensus and a $99.33 price target, consistent with StockAnalysis, though it notes that forecasts are updated frequently. ^[35]

In simple terms, most of Wall Street still sees mid‑single to low‑double‑digit upside from here, with a cluster of targets between $95 and $115, and a few houses calling for as high as $125 over 12 months.

Wave of upgrades

Since October, Newmont has been the subject of an intense upgrade cycle:

UBS raised its target from $106 to $125 while reiterating a Buy/Strong Buy stance. ^[36]
Scotiabank upgraded NEM from “Sector Perform” to “Sector Outperform”, lifting its target from $71.50 to $114. ^[37]
Bank of America maintained a Buy rating but increased its target from $105 to $115. ^[38]
Citigroup reiterated a Buy/Strong Buy, raising its target from $74 to $104. ^[39]
Macquarie recently upgraded the stock from Hold to Strong Buy, with reports citing a target in the $110–115 range. ^[40]
A fresh Goldman Sachs note this week upgraded Newmont to Buy and lifted its price target to about $104.30, arguing that earlier underperformance left the stock attractive relative to its cash‑flow potential. ^[41]

Commentary from Zacks, AInvest and others has echoed this theme, describing Newmont as a prime beneficiary of elevated gold prices with “amplified cash‑generating abilities” that support buybacks and dividends. ^[42]

Emerging caution after a huge run

Not everyone is convinced that NEM is still cheap after its 2025 surge.

BNP Paribas Exane recently downgraded Newmont from Outperform to Neutral, cutting its target from $107 to $97 on the view that the massive rally has left shares close to fully valued. ^[43]
GuruFocus’s proprietary GF Value model currently pegs NEM’s “fair value” around $65, implying potential downside from current prices if gold prices or margins revert toward historical norms. ^[44]
In contrast, Simply Wall St’s discounted cash flow (DCF) work suggests that Newmont may still be 14–27% undervalued, with updated fair‑value estimates around $104–105 per share, even after the big move. ^[45]

These differing valuation frameworks underscore the core issue: your view on NEM now is really your view on how long record‑level gold prices and current margins can last.

Forward Forecasts: Earnings, Growth and Gold Price Assumptions

According to consensus compiled by StockAnalysis, Wall Street expects a sharp earnings step‑up in 2025, followed by more moderate growth: ^[46]

Revenue 2024 → 2025: from about $18.7 billion to $22.0 billion (+17.6%)
Revenue 2026: forecast around $24.1 billion (+9.6% vs 2025)
EPS 2024 → 2025: from roughly $2.92 to $6.31 (over +100% growth)
EPS 2026: expected around $7.50, implying high‑teens growth on top of 2025’s jump

These numbers bake in:

full‑year contribution from Newcrest assets,
Ahafo North ramp‑up,
ongoing cost savings from Project Catalyst, and
gold prices staying well above historical averages.

On the macro side, several banks and commodity strategists see further upside for bullion:

A Bank of America forecast lifted its 2026 gold target to $5,000/oz, after gold hit a new all‑time high above $4,170/oz in October. ^[47]
Other research notes from JPMorgan and others highlight strong central‑bank buying, safe‑haven demand and structural de‑dollarisation as key supports for gold around $4,300/oz. ^[48]

If those gold assumptions hold, Newmont’s current free cash flow of ~$1–1.5 billion per quarter could prove sustainable—or even conservative—through 2026. ^[49]

Institutional Flows and Insider Activity

Recent filings show a mix of profit‑taking and accumulation among institutional investors:

Cheviot Value Management trimmed its Newmont stake by about 3% in Q2 but still holds more than 350,000 shares, making NEM a top‑15 position for the firm. ^[50]
Other asset managers—including Envestnet and several pension funds—have significantly increased their NEM exposure in recent quarters, helping drive institutional ownership toward 70%+ of the float. ^[51]

On the insider side, there has been modest selling:

CEO Tom Palmer sold around 5,000 shares at an average price just above $81,
Director Bruce Brook sold about 2,080 shares at roughly $92,
In total, insiders have sold a bit over 11,000 shares (~$944,000) in the last few months. ^[52]

The volumes are small relative to total insider holdings and the company’s $90+ billion market cap, and look more like routine diversification than a structural negative, but investors tracking sentiment often watch these moves closely.

Bull vs. Bear Case for Newmont Stock

The bull case

Supporters of NEM highlight several key points:

Leverage to a historic gold bull market
Gold is trading at or near record highs and could move higher if rate cuts, geopolitical tensions and de‑dollarisation continue. Newmont is one of the purest, largest‑scale plays on that theme. ^[53]
Record free cash flow and low leverage
Newmont is generating billions in annual free cash flow with near‑zero net debt, giving management flexibility to increase dividends, buy back stock, invest in new projects or pursue attractive deals. ^[54]
Improving cost structure and portfolio quality
Project Catalyst and post‑Newcrest portfolio pruning have removed higher‑cost, non‑core assets, while projects like Ahafo North and the Newcrest copper‑gold mines add long‑life, lower‑cost production. ^[55]
Upside from potential Nevada/Barrick deal
Any move that gives Newmont full control of Nevada Gold Mines or a larger piece of Barrick’s North American assets could unlock operational synergies and strategic value—provided the price is disciplined. ^[56]
Valuation still reasonable on some models
Even after the rally, some DCF frameworks suggest Newmont remains 10–25% undervalued, with fair‑value estimates around $100–105 per share. ^[57]

The bear case

Skeptics focus on a different set of concerns:

The rally has been enormous
With NEM up more than double this year, it doesn’t take much of a shift in gold or sentiment to prompt a sharp pullback. Some analysts now view the stock as fully valued or even rich, particularly versus its historical multiples. ^[58]
Extreme dependence on high gold prices
Many models assume gold stays near or above $4,000/oz. A move back toward $3,000—or even lower—would compress margins and free cash flow and likely force target downgrades. ^[59]
Execution and integration risk
Newcrest integration, workforce restructuring and potential mega‑deals like a Barrick transaction all bring operational risk. Any missteps could dilute the benefits of today’s high commodity prices. ^[60]
Political and ESG exposure
Newmont operates in a wide range of jurisdictions—including Ghana, Peru, Mexico and Papua New Guinea—which can face permitting challenges, tax changes or community opposition that affect production or costs. ^[61]
Mixed valuation signals
While many Street targets sit above today’s price, models like GuruFocus’ GF Value indicate meaningful downside, highlighting how sensitive valuations are to underlying gold assumptions. ^[62]

Is Newmont (NEM) a Buy Now?

From an analyst‑consensus standpoint, Newmont remains a favored way to play the current gold supercycle:

Most brokers rate NEM Buy or Strong Buy.
Average price targets sit modestly above current levels, with some houses arguing for 20–40% upside if gold stays strong and Newmont executes on its plan. ^[63]

At the same time, the risk/reward profile has changed compared with the beginning of 2025. After a 130%+ rally:

Newmont is no longer a deep value idea;
short‑term returns will likely be driven by gold volatility, Q4/Q1 results, and any news on Nevada or Barrick;
some institutional investors and at least one major bank have started to dial back expectations or trim positions. ^[64]

For long‑term, risk‑tolerant investors who believe gold can remain elevated or move higher into 2026, NEM still offers a combination of:

sector‑leading scale,
strong balance sheet,
high free‑cash‑flow yield, and
potential upside from portfolio optimization and M&A.

For more cautious investors, the stock may look more like a hold or “buy‑on‑pullbacks” candidate after such a powerful run, especially if you worry about a reversal in gold or execution risk on big strategic moves.

As always, this article is informational only and not investment advice. Before making any decision on Newmont or any other security, consider your own risk tolerance, time horizon, tax situation and diversification, and consult a qualified financial adviser if needed.