Intel Stock Today (INTC): Nvidia Stake, Apple Foundry Rumors and Fed Week – What to Know Before the Market Opens on December 8, 2025

As U.S. markets get ready to open on Monday, December 8, 2025, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) is heading into the session near the top of a powerful year‑long rally, but under growing scrutiny over valuation, execution risk and macro headwinds.

Below is a curated, news‑grade briefing based on coverage and forecasts updated through December 7, 2025, focused on what traders and long‑term investors should know before the bell.

1. Intel stock price snapshot heading into December 8, 2025

• Last close (Friday, Dec. 5, 2025):
  Intel closed at $41.41, up 2.25% on the day. The stock traded between $41.16 and $42.83, a 4.06% intraday range. ^[1]
• Performance & range:
  • 1‑week change: +2.1%
  • 1‑month change: +8.6%
  • 1‑year change: roughly +98%
  • Year‑to‑date change: about +106% ^[2]
  • 52‑week low: $17.67
  • 52‑week high: $44.02 ^[3]
• Size and valuation (as of Dec. 7, 2025):
  • Market cap: ~$197–198 billion ^[4]
  • Trailing twelve‑month revenue: $53.44 billion
  • Net profit margin: ~0.4%
  • Operating margin: ~6.3%
  • Stated P/E: ~700×, reflecting still‑depressed earnings versus the share price. ^[5]
• Technical context (short term):
  • 50‑day moving average: $37.66
  • 200‑day moving average: $28.10 – both well below the current price, underscoring the strength of the uptrend. ^[6]
  • A technical service expects Intel to open around $41.80 on Monday, with a projected intraday range of roughly $40.38–$42.44 (about ±5.1%). ^[7]

Takeaway: Intel is coming into Monday as a high‑beta, high‑momentum semiconductor name, trading near its 52‑week highs and far above where most of Wall Street expected it to be at the start of 2025.

2. The December 7 spotlight: Apple foundry rumors turbocharge the rally

One of the most important storylines driving Intel’s recent surge is intensifying speculation that Apple may use Intel’s advanced “18AP” process to manufacture its entry‑level M‑series chips from 2027 onward:

• Supply‑chain analyst Ming‑Chi Kuo and multiple tech outlets report that:
  • Apple has signed an NDA with Intel and already received an 18AP process design kit (PDK) pre‑release, version 0.9.1. ^[8]
  • Apple is now waiting on updated PDK 1.0/1.1, expected in Q1 2026. If development milestones hold, mass production could begin in 2Q–3Q 2027 for Apple’s lowest‑end M‑series chips, likely used in MacBook Air and iPad Pro devices. ^[9]
  • Analysts estimate potential annual volume around 15–20 million chips, meaningful for Intel’s foundry business even if Apple continues to rely primarily on TSMC for higher‑end silicon. ^[10]
• Some reports go a step further, suggesting that if Intel executes well on 18AP, Apple could consider Intel’s future “14A” node for more advanced Mac – and even smartphone – chips around 2028, amplifying the long‑term opportunity. ^[11]
• A December 7 valuation piece from Simply Wall St explicitly ties Intel’s sharp move higher to this Apple speculation, noting:
  • The share price has climbed to about $41.41, delivering roughly 105% year‑to‑date returns and nearly 98% one‑year total shareholder return. ^[12]
  • Their intrinsic‑value model pegs fair value at $37.27 per share, implying Intel is currently about 11% overvalued, even as the Apple narrative continues to build. ^[13]

Why it matters before the bell:
The Apple‑Intel foundry story is now a defining driver of sentiment. Any confirmation, delay, or denial of these rumors – whether from Apple, Intel, or trusted analysts – could move Intel’s stock sharply in either direction.

3. Heavyweight backers: U.S. government, SoftBank and Nvidia

Intel’s transformation from a challenged PC‑CPU incumbent into a modern foundry and AI infrastructure player is being underwritten by unusually large strategic investors:

• U.S. government stake:
  In September, Washington invested about $8.9 billion for a roughly 10% stake in Intel, part of broader CHIPS Act efforts to bring advanced semiconductor manufacturing onshore. ^[14]
• SoftBank and Nvidia injections:
  The same Reuters report notes:
  • SoftBank invested around $2 billion, and
  • Nvidia invested $5 billion, giving it a significant minority stake while cementing a strategic partnership. ^[15]
• Nvidia partnership details (as highlighted in recent analysis):
  • Nvidia reportedly bought its stake at about $23.28 per share, giving it roughly 4% of Intel’s outstanding shares. ^[16]
  • The investment is tied to a collaboration on custom x86 data‑center CPUs that integrate tightly with Nvidia GPU platforms, and to AI‑PC initiatives that combine Intel’s CPU and Nvidia’s GPU chiplets. ^[17]

Why it matters:
Going into Monday’s session, investors are treating this trio of backers as a validation of Intel’s turnaround plan and a source of funding security for its capital‑intensive foundry buildout. At the same time, such support raises the bar: if execution lags, markets may reassess whether even large outside capital can fix the story.

4. Strategic update: NEX stays in‑house, Altera goes out

Two key structural moves set the backdrop for Intel’s business mix as of early December:

4.1 Networking (NEX) unit stays inside Intel

On December 3, Reuters reported that Intel will keep its networking and communications (NEX) unit, following a review of strategic options that had included a possible sale or spin‑off. ^[18]

• Intel’s rationale: retaining NEX allows tighter integration between silicon, software and systems, strengthening offerings across AI, data center and edge computing. ^[19]
• The decision came after the big equity injections from the U.S. government, SoftBank and Nvidia bolstered Intel’s balance sheet, reducing pressure to sell assets purely to raise cash. ^[20]

Some commentators noted that investors initially sold the stock off roughly 7% on the NEX decision earlier in the week, before it rebounded as the Apple and Nvidia narratives re‑asserted themselves. TechStock²+1

4.2 Altera stake sale to Silver Lake

Earlier in the fall, Intel sold 51% of its Altera programmable‑chip division to private‑equity firm Silver Lake for $8.75 billion. ^[21]

• The divestiture provided immediate cash and reshaped Intel’s financial guidance, but analyst target prices at the time (average around $22) implied downside from then‑current levels – highlighting how far sentiment has since swung. ^[22]

Why it matters now:
Heading into Monday’s session, investors are weighing whether Intel’s retained NEX unit and partially spun‑off Altera will together support margin recovery – or whether they introduce execution and complexity risk just as Intel ramps new nodes like 18A and 14A.

5. Fresh institutional flows as of December 7, 2025

Two December 7 MarketBeat filings show continued institutional interest in Intel: ^[23]

• Jump Financial LLC:
  • Increased its Intel stake by 26.2% in Q2 to about 1.82 million shares, valued around $40.8 million.
  • Intel is now Jump’s 20th‑largest holding. ^[24]
• EverSource Wealth Advisors LLC:
  • Boosted its holdings by 82%, adding 13,689 shares to reach 30,390 shares worth roughly $681,000. ^[25]

These filings also highlight:

• Major institutions such as Norges Bank have opened multi‑billion‑dollar positions, and Vanguard now owns roughly 385.9 million Intel shares, equating to about $8.6 billion at recent prices. ^[26]
• Overall, institutional investors and hedge funds hold roughly 64.5% of Intel’s outstanding shares. ^[27]

Pre‑open implication:
The ownership base is heavily institutional, which can amplify moves around macro events (like this week’s Fed decision) and stock‑specific headlines, as large funds rebalance exposure to AI and semiconductors.

6. Analyst ratings and new forecasts (updated through Dec. 7)

Coverage updated over the last few weeks paints a visibly cautious but improving consensus on Intel:

6.1 Street consensus targets

Recent aggregators and research sites show a cluster of 12‑month price targets below the current share price:

• MarketBeat:
  • 34‑analyst consensus average target: $34.84
  • Range: $20 – $52
  • Implied downside vs. $41.41: ~‑16%
  • Consensus rating: “Reduce” (2 Buy, ~24 Hold, 8 Sell). ^[28]
• StockAnalysis.com:
  • 25‑analyst consensus average target: $31.98
  • Implied downside: ~‑22.8%
  • Consensus rating: “Hold”. ^[29]
• Ticker Nerd (updated Dec. 7, 2025):
  • 53 Wall Street analysts, overall “neutral” stance.
  • Median target: $38.95 (range $20.40–$52), implying about ‑5.9% downside from $41.41.
  • Ratings split: 4 Buy, 34 Hold, 7 Sell. ^[30]
• Public.com (as of Dec. 7):
  • 24 analysts, consensus rating “Hold”.
  • 2025 price prediction around $32.02. ^[31]

6.2 Valuation check: is the stock overheated?

The December 7 Simply Wall St valuation piece concludes: ^[32]

• Narrative fair value: ~$37.27 per share.
• Verdict: about 11% overvalued at $41.41.
• Key tension:
  • Intel trades at a rich earnings multiple given low current profitability,
  • But its price‑to‑sales ratio (~3.7×) is still below the U.S. semiconductor industry average (~5.5×) and far below certain high‑flying peers (~15×), suggesting some room if the turnaround sticks.

What to know at the open:
Across major sources, most formal analyst targets sit in the mid‑ to high‑$30s, and few embrace the current price as cheap. Bulls argue the models are behind the curve on Apple, Nvidia and AI inflection, while bears warn that the stock has front‑run fundamentals.

7. Technical picture: strong uptrend, rising risk

Short‑term technical services currently frame Intel as a momentum name with elevated volatility:

• Trend & signals:
  • Intel has risen in 8 of the last 10 trading days, up 23% over the past two weeks. ^[33]
  • Both short‑ and long‑term moving averages are rising, and a popular technical model classifies Intel as a “Buy or Hold” candidate since late November. ^[34]
• Support and resistance levels (short term): ^[35]
  • Immediate resistance from accumulated volume around $41.53 (just above Friday’s close).
  • Higher resistance zones around $42.83–$43.47, then the 52‑week high near $44.02.
  • Key support from prior volume at roughly $38.28, then $35.50 and $33.99.
• Monday’s modelled trading range:
  • Expected “fair” opening price: $41.80 (about 0.9% above Friday’s close).
  • Estimated day range: roughly $40.38–$42.44, implying a potential move of about ±5% within the session.
• Risk flags:
  • Friday’s gain came on falling volume, which some technicians interpret as a negative divergence and a possible early warning that momentum may be tiring. ^[36]

Trading implication:
Heading into the open, Intel sits closer to near‑term resistance than support, with technical tools arguing for a bullish trend but poor intraday risk/reward unless the stock pulls back closer to the low‑$38s.

8. Earnings snapshot and forward fundamentals

8.1 Latest reported quarter (Q3 2025)

Intel’s Q3 2025 results, reported on October 23, marked a tentative fundamental turn: ^[37]

• EPS: $0.23
  • Beat consensus estimates of roughly ‑$0.04 by a wide margin.
  • Up from ‑$0.46 in the same quarter a year earlier.
• Revenue:$13.65 billion, vs $13.10 billion expected.
  • About 3% year‑over‑year growth, modest but directionally positive.
• Profitability:
  • Net margin still tiny at around 0.37%, with ROE slightly negative, underscoring how early Intel still is in its margin recovery. ^[38]

8.2 Guidance and full‑year expectations

• Intel set Q4 2025 EPS guidance around $0.08, according to multiple analyst roundups. ^[39]
• Consensus full‑year 2025 EPS is still roughly ‑$0.11, highlighting that the company is only just climbing out of a multi‑year earnings slump. ^[40]

8.3 Longer‑term forecasts

• Aggregated models suggest Intel’s revenue and earnings could re‑accelerate into 2026, but with wide dispersion between the most bullish and bearish forecasts. ^[41]
• Many fundamental analysts, including those summarized by Simply Wall St, warn that foundry and AI investments may keep margins under pressure for several years, even if revenue grows. ^[42]

Bottom line:
Fundamentals are improving off a low base, but Intel is not yet a profit powerhouse; much of the share‑price strength reflects future expectations around AI, foundry wins (like Apple) and manufacturing leadership, rather than current earnings power.

9. Strategic AI & foundry themes to watch

Beyond Apple and Nvidia, several strategic threads are shaping Intel’s AI narrative as of early December:

9.1 Next‑gen nodes: 18A today, 14A tomorrow

• Industry analyst Patrick Moorhead recently called Intel’s upcoming 14A node “the real deal”, highlighting strong early feedback from customers and emphasizing that 18A is already in production, with first‑wave Panther Lake CPUs set to arrive in 2026. ^[43]
• Multiple reports note that both Microsoft and Apple are evaluating Intel’s 18A/18AP technologies for advanced chips, potentially validating Intel as a credible alternative to TSMC for some leading‑edge designs. ^[44]

9.2 Potential SambaNova acquisition

A widely circulated MarketBeat analysis describes Intel’s ongoing talks to acquire AI hardware and software startup SambaNova Systems as a potential “ambush” in AI inference: ^[45]

• SambaNova designs full‑stack AI systems built around its Reconfigurable Dataflow Unit (RDU), optimized for large‑scale inference workloads.
• The article argues that:
  • The deal would be unusually de‑risked because Intel’s CEO Lip‑Bu Tan and Intel Capital have deep prior ties to SambaNova.
  • Acquiring SambaNova could instantly give Intel a mature, differentiated inference platform, complementing its Gaudi accelerators focused more on AI training.

While no deal has been announced, such M&A chatter reinforces the perception that Intel is willing to spend aggressively to catch up in AI – a plus for technology positioning, but a potential drag on near‑term margins and free cash flow.

10. Macro backdrop: Fed week, rich valuations and an “AI air pocket” risk

Intel doesn’t trade in a vacuum. The macro setup for Monday, December 8 is unusually important:

• A U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on December 9–10 is widely expected to produce a 25‑basis‑point rate cut, bringing the fed funds range down to about 3.50–3.75%. Futures markets put the odds in the mid‑80% range as of December 7. Trading Economics+3TechStock²+3MEXC+3
• However, Reuters and others highlight a deep internal split within the Fed, raising the risk of multiple dissents and a more hawkish tone from Chair Jerome Powell than markets currently assume. TechStock²+1

A December 7 “week‑ahead” preview notes: TechStock²+2CoinCentral+2

• Major U.S. indexes sit near record highs, with the S&P 500 up roughly 16–17% year‑to‑date.
• The rally is heavily concentrated in AI‑linked mega‑cap tech, while small‑caps and value stocks have only recently started to participate.
• Strategists describe the current environment as a late‑cycle bull market with stretched valuations and limited margin for earnings disappointment.

Separately, a recent Bank of America note warns of a potential “AI air pocket” in 2026, where the market may temporarily re‑rate AI‑heavy names after an intense capital‑spending cycle. ^[46]

Implication for Intel:
With Intel now increasingly viewed as an AI and foundry turnaround story, its stock is likely to be highly sensitive to:

• Any surprises in this week’s Fed decision or guidance,
• Rotations into or out of AI‑linked technology, and
• Shifts in risk appetite as 2025 draws to a close.

11. Key things to watch at the open on December 8, 2025

Here are the main Intel‑specific and macro variables to monitor as trading begins:

1. Price action around $41.50–$44.00
   • Does Intel break convincingly above the nearby resistance band ($41.53–$42.83) and challenge the $44.02 52‑week high, or does it stall and reverse? ^[47]
2. Volume vs. last week
   • Friday’s rally came on lower trading volume. If Monday’s moves – especially any upside spike – occur on muted volume, that could reinforce concerns about waning momentum. ^[48]
3. New headlines on Apple‑Intel foundry cooperation
   • Any fresh reporting, official comments, or leaks around:
     • The 18AP PDK schedule,
     • Apple’s internal evaluations, or
     • Possible 14A follow‑on deals
       could quickly adjust market expectations for Intel’s long‑term foundry revenue. ^[49]
4. Updates on Nvidia or government partnerships
   • Further detail on how Nvidia plans to leverage Intel‑built data‑center CPUs, or on how U.S. government funding will be deployed, could influence perceptions of the durability of this new capital base. ^[50]
5. Macro headlines ahead of the Fed
   • Bond yields, futures, and any last‑minute Fed commentary can hit valuation‑sensitive tech stocks disproportionately. Intel, now trading on future growth rather than current earnings, is squarely in this camp. Business Insider+3TechStock²+3MEXC+3
6. Short‑term technical triggers
   • Watch how the stock behaves if it tests the $38.28 support area or the $43–44 resistance zone. A decisive break in either direction could set the tone for the rest of the week. ^[51]

12. How to frame Intel before the bell (not investment advice)

Putting it all together, here’s the balanced picture as of December 7–8, 2025:

• Bullish pillars:
  • Stock has more than doubled in a year, reflecting a genuine shift in sentiment. ^[52]
  • Apple 18AP/14A rumors, Nvidia’s $5 billion stake, and U.S. government + SoftBank backing all suggest that influential players believe in Intel’s foundry and AI roadmap. ^[53]
  • Technical indicators point to a strong uptrend, with multiple services flagging Intel as a short‑term buy or hold candidate. ^[54]
• Bearish / cautious pillars:
  • Most formal 12‑month price targets still sit below the current share price, clustering in the mid‑$30s and implying modest to significant downside. ^[55]
  • Independent valuation work (e.g., Simply Wall St) suggests Intel is about 11% overvalued relative to a fair‑value estimate rooted in gradual margin recovery – and that this recovery is far from guaranteed. ^[56]
  • Earnings remain thin, and foundry deals may initially be low‑margin, extending the timeline for a clean, high‑ROE turnaround. ^[57]
  • The broader market sits in a late‑cycle AI‑driven bull phase, with at least one major bank openly warning of an “AI air pocket” ahead. TechStock²+2MEXC+2

For anyone considering Intel around Monday’s open, the practical lens is:

• Do you believe Intel can execute on 18A/18AP and 14A, secure and deliver on deals with Apple and other top‑tier customers, and turn government and partner capital into sustainably higher earnings?
• Or do you see a stock that has run too far, too fast, pulling forward years of hoped‑for improvement into today’s price?

Either way, the next few trading sessions – framed by Fed decisions, AI sentiment, and any new Apple/Nvidia headlines – are likely to be pivotal for how Intel trades into year‑end.

Important disclaimer:
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Markets are risky and volatile; always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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