As Wall Street heads into the new week on Monday, December 8, 2025, The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) enters trading at a critical moment.
The stock closed Friday, December 5 at $354.61, about 19% below its 52‑week high of $436.36, and only modestly above its 52‑week low of $326.31. [1] Recent earnings disappointment, legal scrutiny, and a soft home‑improvement market are weighing on sentiment—but powerful themes like AI tools for contractors, an Instacart partnership in Canada, and an upcoming Investor & Analyst Day on December 9 are giving bulls something to watch. [2]
Here’s everything traders and long‑term investors should know about Home Depot stock before the market opens on December 8, 2025, with a special focus on news and analysis dated December 7, 2025 and the days immediately preceding it.
1. Where Home Depot Stock Stands Right Now
- Last close (Dec 5, 2025): $354.61
- 52‑week range: $326.31 – $436.36
- Market cap: ~$353 billion
- P/E (ttm): 24.2
- Forward P/E: 23.5
- Dividend (annualized): $9.20 per share (~2.6% yield)
- Ex‑dividend date: December 4, 2025 [3]
On November 20, Home Depot’s board declared a quarterly dividend of $2.30 per share, payable December 18 to shareholders of record as of December 4—marking the company’s 155th consecutive quarterly dividend. [4] That keeps Home Depot firmly in the camp of dependable dividend growth names.
From a performance standpoint:
- Over the last quarter, HD shares are down about 16%, largely following the Q3 earnings miss and guidance cut.
- Over five years, the stock has still delivered a 34% price gain, and total shareholder return (including reinvested dividends) of roughly 51%, according to a December 7 performance review. [5]
- Risk‑adjusted returns have been mixed: PortfoliosLab estimates a 1‑year Sharpe ratio of –0.64, but a 10‑year Sharpe ratio of 0.53 and long‑term average annual total return around 14%. [6]
Technical momentum is weak: ChartMill gives HD a 0/10 technical rating, reflecting a stock that has broken down from highs, while assigning a 5/10 fundamental score with strong profitability but leverage concerns. [7]
2. Fresh December 7 Headlines: What Changed Over the Weekend
Several December 7, 2025 notes and screeners reshaped how the market is looking at HD ahead of Monday’s open:
2.1 Institutional investors reposition around HD
MarketBeat highlighted two notable 13F‑style portfolio moves reported over the weekend: [8]
- Cerity Partners LLC
- Bought 29,233 shares of Home Depot, lifting its position to roughly 273,859 shares.
- The stake is valued in the tens of millions of dollars and underscores ongoing institutional interest despite recent volatility.
- California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS)
- Sold 719,898 HD shares, trimming its position by about 25% to approximately 2.15 million shares.
- Even after the sale, HD still accounts for around 0.5% of the CalPERS portfolio, making it a meaningful but reduced position.
This split picture—one large wealth manager adding and a giant pension fund cutting—captures current sentiment: investors are still attracted to the franchise, but not everyone is comfortable with near‑term macro and valuation risk.
2.2 HD highlighted as a “stock to watch” on December 7
MarketBeat’s screeners for December 7 flagged Home Depot in two lists: [9]
- “Top Home Improvement Stocks to Watch Today”
- “Retail Stocks to Consider – December 7th”
The screeners emphasize HD’s:
- Large dollar trading volume
- High institutional ownership
- Exposure to the cyclical housing and remodeling cycle
The message: despite the pullback, HD remains a core retail bellwether that traders are watching closely as the market digests the latest housing and consumer data.
2.3 Five‑year performance and insider activity
A December 7 analysis of Home Depot’s five‑year returns noted: [10]
- Share price: +34% over five years (versus a stronger broader market).
- EPS growth: about 4.8% per year, slower than the share price increase.
- Total shareholder return: ~51% with dividends.
- Insider behavior: recent insider share purchases are highlighted as a vote of confidence from management.
For investors looking at HD as a long‑term compounder, this provides important context: returns have been solid but not spectacular, and recent buying by insiders is a supportive signal.
3. Strategic Catalysts in Focus
Beyond daily price action, several strategic initiatives are likely to be front and center in Monday’s trading.
3.1 AI‑powered Blueprint Takeoffs: A big bet on Pros and AI
On November 19, Home Depot launched “Blueprint Takeoffs,” an AI‑powered tool that automatically converts single‑family project blueprints into complete material lists and cost estimates for professional contractors. [11]
Key points:
- The tool can deliver a full material list and quote in days, a process that previously took weeks. [12]
- It targets renovators, remodelers and builders, helping them estimate jobs more accurately and quickly. [13]
- Digital Commerce 360 and other trade outlets see this as a signal that Home Depot wants to embed itself earlier in the construction value chain and strengthen its position in B2B e‑commerce. [14]
For HD stock, the AI tool matters because:
- It deepens relationships with “Pro” customers, a segment expected to grow faster than consumer DIY in coming years. [15]
- It could improve share of wallet on each project and boost attachment to Home Depot’s ecosystem.
- It supports the narrative that HD is not just a brick‑and‑mortar retailer, but a tech‑enabled project partner for contractors—something analysts are likely to probe at the upcoming investor day.
3.2 Instacart partnership in Canada: Omnichannel gets deeper
On December 2, Instacart and The Home Depot Canada announced a nationwide same‑day delivery partnership: [16]
- Instacart now offers delivery from more than 175 Home Depot Canada stores, making Home Depot the first nationwide home‑improvement retailer on Instacart in Canada.
- The deal includes Instacart’s “Big & Bulky” solution, enabling same‑day delivery of heavy items (up to 60 lbs) like tools, furnishings and renovation supplies. [17]
- A promotional offer of $20 off a Home Depot Canada order of $80+ via Instacart runs through December 8, 2025—exactly the day U.S. markets reopen. [18]
For investors, this partnership signals:
- Strengthening of omnichannel capabilities, particularly in last‑mile delivery.
- Incremental sales upside in Canada during the critical holiday and winter project season.
- Continued focus on digital convenience, which can support market share as smaller competitors struggle.
3.3 GMS acquisition and expanded Pro footprint
Earlier in 2025, Home Depot completed the acquisition of GMS Inc., a large building materials distributor, via its SRS Distribution subsidiary. [19]
From the Q3 release:
- GMS contributed about $900 million in sales in Q3 alone (roughly eight weeks of results). [20]
- Management expects around $2 billion in incremental annual sales from GMS in fiscal 2025. [21]
This acquisition:
- Accelerates Home Depot’s Pro‑focused strategy and expands its reach in gypsum, ceilings and other specialty materials.
- Adds complexity and integration risk, which some analysts cite when cautioning about near‑term margins and execution. [22]
4. Q3 2025 Results and 2025 Guidance: Why the Stock Slid
Home Depot’s November 18 Q3 fiscal 2025 report is still the single biggest driver of recent price action. [23]
4.1 Headline numbers
For the quarter ended November 2, 2025:
- Net sales: $41.4 billion, +2.8% year‑on‑year
- Comparable sales:
- Total company: +0.2%
- U.S. stores: +0.1%
- Net earnings: $3.6 billion
- Diluted EPS (GAAP):$3.62, down from $3.67 a year earlier
- Adjusted EPS:$3.74, down from $3.78
While top‑line results were boosted by the GMS acquisition, underlying comps were barely positive and earnings slightly declined.
4.2 Management commentary: storms, uncertainty and housing pressure
Management flagged several headwinds: [24]
- A “lack of storms” in the quarter compared with typical hurricane and storm seasons, which reduced demand in certain categories like roofing and emergency repair.
- Consumer uncertainty and ongoing pressure in housing, with homeowners cautious about big discretionary projects.
- Expectations for a demand pickup in Q3 that “did not materialize.”
This helped feed a narrative—reinforced by analysts and media coverage—that Home Depot is in a “renovation recession” and facing homeowner fatigue on big‑ticket projects. [25]
4.3 Guidance cut
Home Depot revised its fiscal 2025 full‑year guidance as follows: [26]
- Total sales growth: ~3%, with GMS expected to add about $2 billion.
- Comparable sales:“slightly positive” for the comparable 52‑week period.
- Operating margin: ~12.6%, with adjusted operating margin ~13.0%.
- EPS:
- GAAP diluted EPS expected to decline ~6% vs. fiscal 2024’s $14.91.
- Adjusted EPS expected to decline ~5% vs. $15.24 in 2024.
Analysts and financial media highlighted that the profit outlook was weaker than hoped, leading to a notable sell‑off in HD shares and a flurry of target price cuts. [27]
5. Legal and Sentiment Overhang: Schall Law Investigation
Adding to the pressure, The Schall Law Firm, a shareholder‑rights litigation firm, announced on December 3 that it is investigating potential securities‑law violations by Home Depot. [28]
According to Schall’s case description, the investigation focuses on whether Home Depot:
- Issued false or misleading statements, or
- Failed to disclose material information to investors
in connection with its explanation for missing expectations in Q3 2025—particularly its emphasis on storm activity, consumer uncertainty and housing pressure as key drivers of the shortfall. [29]
At this stage:
- This is only an investigation, not a finalized lawsuit or judgment.
- Nevertheless, such announcements often act as a sentiment overhang, as investors weigh the risk of future litigation or additional disclosures.
HD also recently settled a $65,000 class action related to accessibility of checkout terminals for visually impaired customers—small in financial terms but a reminder of ongoing compliance and reputational risk in a large retail footprint. [30]
6. Macro Backdrop: Housing, Mortgage Rates and Remodeling
For any Home Depot stock forecast for 2025–2026, the macro context—housing and home improvement demand—is crucial.
6.1 Mortgage rates: easing, but still elevated
As of early December 2025:
- The average U.S. 30‑year fixed mortgage rate has fallen to about 6.19%, down from 6.69% a year earlier, and near the lowest level since late October. [31]
- The pullback follows two recent Federal Reserve rate cuts (September and October), and markets have been expecting a possible third cut, although economists warn mortgage rates are likely to stay just above 6% through 2026. [32]
Zillow and other housing analysts note that the recent rate dip has pushed affordability to its best level in about three years and triggered a short‑term flurry of housing activity. [33]
At the same time, mortgage applications have declined for two consecutive months, suggesting home sales may not rebound as strongly as some expect. [34]
6.2 Home improvement spending: slow growth, Pro‑led
The Home Improvement Research Institute (HIRI) and other forecasters provide important context for HD: [35]
- The consumer home‑improvement products market is expected to grow only about 1.3% in 2025.
- The Pro market (contractors, tradespeople) looks stronger, with expected growth of roughly 4.6% in 2025. [36]
- HIRI’s Q3 2025 tracker found:
- 69% of homeowners said Q3 was a bad time to start a project over $25,000.
- 52% said it was a less‑than‑ideal time to hire a contractor.
- Yet 30% plan to spend more on home improvement in the next 12 months, and 45% plan to spend the same. [37]
The message for HD investors:
- Large, discretionary renovation projects remain under pressure, matching management’s comments about homeowner “fatigue.” [38]
- Smaller projects, maintenance and Pro work are more resilient, which aligns with Home Depot’s heavy emphasis on Pro growth, AI tools, and the GMS/SRS platform.
6.3 Competitive and industry landscape
The industry backdrop also includes stress for smaller competitors:
- North American Builders Supply (NABS), a regional building‑materials retailer, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in early December, widely described in headlines as a “Home Depot, Lowe’s rival,” with tariffs and higher material costs cited as key pressures. [39]
While NABS is tiny compared with HD, its bankruptcy underlines two points:
- The environment remains challenging for smaller, highly exposed regional players, and
- Industry consolidation and share gains by giants like Home Depot and Lowe’s are likely to continue over time.
7. Analyst Forecasts and Valuation: How Wall Street Sees HD
Despite recent volatility, Wall Street remains generally constructive on Home Depot stock:
- StockAnalysis.com reports that 24 analysts rate HD a “Buy”, with a 12‑month average price target of $423.42, implying ~19.4% upside from Friday’s close. [40]
- ChartMill aggregates 47 analysts with an average target of $408.98, or ~15.3% upside from $354.61. [41]
- Benzinga’s dashboard shows a consensus target in the $425 range, reinforcing the idea that most covering analysts see double‑digit return potential if HD can stabilize earnings. [42]
Valuation snapshot: [43]
- P/E (ttm): ~24x
- Forward P/E: ~23.5x
- Dividend yield: ~2.6% (based on $9.20 annual dividend)
- Return on equity: ~31%
Recent analyst and blogger takes include:
- “Home Depot: Risk‑Reward Not Attractive Relative To The Market” (Seeking Alpha) – argues that macro headwinds and flat earnings make HD expensive vs. its growth prospects, justifying a Hold stance for now. [44]
- “Home Depot: Stock Turn Anticipates Housing Recovery But Is Still Expensive” – notes that the stock already prices in some housing recovery, even as current fundamentals remain under pressure. [45]
- Several Motley Fool pieces over the last two weeks highlight HD as a solid dividend grower but caution that near‑term performance will depend on housing and consumer confidence normalizing. [46]
In short: HD is not cheap, but the Street is betting that earnings are near a cyclical bottom, and that housing and remodeling trends begin to normalize into 2026.
8. The Big Near‑Term Catalyst: Investor & Analyst Day on December 9
Perhaps the single most important event for HD in the coming days is the company’s 2025 Investor and Analyst Conference, scheduled for Tuesday, December 9 at 8:30 a.m. ET. [47]
Benzinga and other outlets characterize the event as a “big test” for Home Depot, noting that Wall Street is “betting on an earnings bottom” and looking for: [48]
- Fresh 2026 guidance, particularly for comps and EPS.
- Evidence that heavy Pro‑focused investment and the GMS/SRS platform will boost margins rather than drag them.
- More clarity on HD’s AI and digital strategy (Blueprint Takeoffs, e‑commerce, Pro loyalty).
- Updated capital allocation priorities (dividends, buybacks, and integration spending).
How HD frames the next 12–24 months at this event will likely have more impact on the stock than any single data point from the Q3 release.
9. Key Things to Watch When the Market Opens on December 8, 2025
Here’s a practical checklist for traders and investors heading into Monday’s session:
- Price action around $350–$360
- This zone sits above the 52‑week low but well below the $436 high.
- Watch whether buyers treat the mid‑$350s as a base ahead of investor day, or whether selling pressure continues.
- Reaction to December 7 institutional flows
- News that Cerity Partners added shares while CalPERS trimmed its stake may spark debate about institutional conviction. [49]
- Speculation ahead of Investor Day
- Any analyst preview notes or media commentary Monday could move expectations for 2026 guidance—and with it, the stock price. [50]
- Sentiment around the Schall Law investigation
- Watch for other law firms announcing similar “investor alerts,” which often happens in clusters; that could amplify headline risk even if the underlying merits are unclear. [51]
- Macro data and yields
- If Treasury yields and mortgage‑rate expectations fall further, home‑improvement names like HD and Lowe’s often benefit; if yields spike, housing‑linked stocks can come under renewed pressure. [52]
- Peer moves: Lowe’s, Floor & Decor, building‑products suppliers
- Relative strength or weakness in peers can signal whether the market is pricing in stock‑specific vs. sector‑wide issues. [53]
- News follow‑through on AI and Instacart
- Any early Pro feedback, customer uptake data, or expanded coverage of the Blueprint Takeoffs AI tool or Instacart partnership could reinforce the view that HD is building durable advantages in Pro and omnichannel. [54]
10. What It All Means for Different Types of Investors
Short‑term traders
- HD is trading with weak technical momentum, but with a cluster of near‑term catalysts (legal headlines, institutional moves, investor day).
- Expect elevated volatility around December 9 in particular as the market reacts to new guidance and strategy details. [55]
Dividend and income investors
- With a 2.6% yield, a long history of consistent dividends, and decades of growth, HD remains a core dividend growth candidate for many portfolios. [56]
- However, payout ratios are creeping higher as earnings dip, so long‑term income investors will want to see EPS growth resume by 2026 to keep dividend growth sustainable.
Long‑term growth investors
- The AI Blueprint Takeoffs tool, Pro‑focused strategy, GMS acquisition, and Canadian Instacart partnership all point toward a Home Depot that is more integrated, more digital and more Pro‑heavy. [57]
- The key risk is that macro headwinds in housing and consumer spending last longer than expected, limiting the near‑term payoff from these investments.
As always, this article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Any decision to buy, hold or sell Home Depot stock (HD) should be based on your own research, risk tolerance, time horizon and, ideally, consultation with a qualified financial adviser.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. ir.homedepot.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. ir.homedepot.com, 5. www.ainvest.com, 6. portfolioslab.com, 7. www.chartmill.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.ainvest.com, 11. corporate.homedepot.com, 12. www.constructionbusinessowner.com, 13. corporate.homedepot.com, 14. www.digitalcommerce360.com, 15. www.hiri.org, 16. www.instacart.com, 17. www.instacart.com, 18. www.instacart.com, 19. ir.homedepot.com, 20. ir.homedepot.com, 21. ir.homedepot.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. ir.homedepot.com, 24. ir.homedepot.com, 25. stockanalysis.com, 26. ir.homedepot.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. schallfirm.com, 29. ir.homedepot.com, 30. www.the-sun.com, 31. apnews.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. investors.zillowgroup.com, 34. www.capitaleconomics.com, 35. www.hiri.org, 36. www.hiri.org, 37. hardwareretailing.com, 38. stockanalysis.com, 39. www.thestreet.com, 40. stockanalysis.com, 41. www.chartmill.com, 42. www.benzinga.com, 43. stockanalysis.com, 44. stockanalysis.com, 45. stockanalysis.com, 46. stockanalysis.com, 47. ir.homedepot.com, 48. www.benzinga.com, 49. www.marketbeat.com, 50. www.benzinga.com, 51. schallfirm.com, 52. apnews.com, 53. www.benzinga.com, 54. www.digitalcommerce360.com, 55. www.chartmill.com, 56. ir.homedepot.com, 57. corporate.homedepot.com
