Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) heads into Monday’s session as one of the most talked‑about quantum computing stocks on Wall Street — and one of the most volatile. After a spectacular multi‑year run and a bruising pullback over the last month, fresh analysis published on December 7 has sharpened the debate over whether Rigetti is a breakthrough opportunity or a bubble waiting to pop. [1]
This article pulls together the latest news, forecasts, and commentary from December 7, 2025, plus the key developments from the last few trading days, to outline what investors should have on their radar before the U.S. market opens on Monday, December 8, 2025.
Quick snapshot of Rigetti before the bell
- Last regular close (Friday, Dec. 5):
RGTI closed at $28.11, down 6.5% on the day after trading between $27.33 and $29.60. The stock had previously closed at $30.06, so Friday’s move was a sharp reversal of Thursday’s rally. [2] - Recent surge and drawdown:
Articles published on December 7 highlight that Rigetti shares are up roughly 2,750% since January 2024, and more than 3,500% over the last year, even after a steep decline of around 57% from October all‑time highs and a 42% plunge last month. [3] - Market cap and trading range:
At Friday’s close, Rigetti’s market capitalization sits near $9.3 billion, with a 52‑week range of $3.31 to $58.15 and average daily volume around 43 million shares (Friday volume was about 51 million). [4] - Extended hours:
MarketBeat data show RGTI ticking up modestly in Friday’s post‑market trading to about $28.29 (+0.64%), but there is no widely reported pre‑market quote yet for Monday. [5] - Valuation (price-to-sales):
With Q3 2025 revenue of $1.9 million and a roughly $9.3 billion market cap, Rigetti is trading at thousands of times its current revenue. One Motley Fool piece on Dec. 7 estimates the stock at about 1,080× sales, while another notes investors are paying nearly 5,000× annualized Q3 revenue. [6]
For context, a Nasdaq/Motley Fool analysis of the sector pegs IonQ at ~159× 2025 sales, Rigetti around 1,134×, and rival Quantum Computing Inc. above 3,400×. [7]
What the December 7 coverage is saying about Rigetti
Two high‑profile Motley Fool articles published on December 7, 2025 are shaping the weekend conversation around RGTI:
1. “Should You Buy Rigetti Computing Stock After Its 2,750% Gain Since 2024?”
This long‑form analysis, syndicated via Nasdaq, frames Rigetti as one of Wall Street’s hottest quantum names but raises red flags about valuation and timelines: [8]
- Performance and analyst targets
- The article notes Rigetti shares have risen about 2,750% since January 2024.
- It cites seven Wall Street analysts covering the stock, with a median target price of $40 — roughly 42% upside from around $28 — and even the lowest target at $35, implying ~25% upside. [9]
- However, the piece stresses that this upside is not a free lunch, given the extreme valuation and early‑stage revenues.
- Business and technology strengths
- Rigetti is highlighted as a vertically integrated quantum company: it designs and manufactures its own superconducting quantum chips and operates the full hardware‑and‑software stack, selling access via cloud and on‑premises systems. [10]
- The company’s multi‑chip (chiplet) quantum processor architecture is framed as a potential long‑term edge in scaling toward fault‑tolerant systems.
- Biggest concern: time horizon and valuation
- The article warns that commercially useful, fault‑tolerant quantum computers may still be a decade or more away, while the stock already trades at over 1,000× sales, far richer than even the priciest S&P 500 names. [11]
Bottom line from this piece: Rigetti may have genuine technological advantages, but the share price already discounts years of success that are far from guaranteed.
2. “3 Incredible Growth Stocks to Buy Now”
Another December 7 Motley Fool article groups Rigetti with Ondas Holdings and Serve Robotics as high‑beta, high‑risk small caps at ‘the bleeding edge’ of physical AI and quantum computing. [12]
Its take on RGTI:
- Lottery‑ticket profile
- Q3 2025 revenue came in around $1.9 million against an operating loss of $20.5 million. [13]
- Despite this tiny top line, the stock is said to have surged more than 3,500% over the past year, pushing the market cap to roughly $9.2 billion — close to 5,000× annualized Q3 revenue. [14]
- The author suggests treating Rigetti as an “option‑like” position — a small, speculative slice of a diversified portfolio — rather than a core holding.
- Early signs of commercial traction
- The article points to Rigetti’s two on‑premise quantum system orders totaling about $5.7 million and a $5.8 million Air Force Research Lab (AFRL) networking contract as evidence that early enterprise and government demand is real, even if still small in dollar terms. [15]
This second piece is more overtly bullish on Rigetti’s optionality, but it still underscores the speculative, “high‑stakes lottery ticket” nature of the stock at current levels.
Fundamental backdrop: Q3 2025 earnings and roadmap
To understand the debate, you need Rigetti’s latest numbers and technology roadmap, which are still driving analyst models and media coverage.
Revenue, losses, and cash
From Rigetti’s Q3 2025 earnings release and subsequent coverage: [16]
- Q3 2025 revenue:
- About $1.9–1.95 million, down 18% year over year and below analyst expectations (~$2.17 million).
- Profitability:
- GAAP net loss: roughly $201 million for the quarter, heavily impacted by non‑cash warrant and earn‑out revaluation.
- Non‑GAAP net loss: about $10.7 million, or $0.03 per share, which actually beat the consensus loss estimate of $0.05 per share.
- MarketBeat calculates a negative net margin near 4,700%, underscoring how tiny current revenues are relative to expenses.
- Balance sheet strength:
- As of September 30, 2025, Rigetti held around $558.9 million in cash, cash equivalents, and short‑term investments.
- By November 6, additional warrant exercises had boosted that total to roughly $600 million, giving the company a sizable cash runway for R&D and capex. [17]
Technology roadmap and commercial deals
Rigetti’s Q3 release and subsequent commentary laid out an aggressive multi‑year plan: [18]
- Hardware roadmap:
- Deliver a 100+ qubit chiplet‑based superconducting system with ~99.5% median two‑qubit gate fidelity by the end of 2025.
- Deploy a 150+ qubit system by around the end of 2026 with ~99.7% median fidelity.
- Aim for a 1,000+ qubit system by around the end of 2027, targeting ~99.8% median two‑qubit gate fidelity.
- Commercial traction:
- Two Novera 9‑qubit systems sold for approximately $5.7 million, to an Asian tech manufacturer and a California AI/physics startup, with upgrade paths to higher qubit counts.
- A three‑year, $5.8 million AFRL contract to develop superconducting quantum networking with partner QphoX.
- Ongoing collaborations with Montana State University (MSU) and India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C‑DAC), plus plans for an Italian subsidiary to tap European quantum funding and talent.
- Strategic position:
- Rigetti continues to tout its own chip fabrication facility (“Fab‑1”) and claims to have shipped the industry’s first multi‑chip quantum processor, supporting its scalability thesis. [19]
On the Q3 call, CEO Subodh Kulkarni reiterated an ambition to reach “quantum advantage” within 3–5 years with roughly 1,000 qubits and improved fidelity and error correction — a goal that underpins much of the bullish narrative but remains technically and financially demanding. [20]
How Wall Street currently sees Rigetti
Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” but divided
MarketBeat’s latest summary shows: [21]
- Analyst coverage: 7 analysts.
- Ratings breakdown:
- 5 Buy, 1 Hold, 1 Sell → overall “Moderate Buy”.
- 12‑month price targets:
- Average target:$25.43, implying about 9.5% downside from Friday’s $28.11 close.
- Range:$12 (low) to $40 (high).
That average contrasts with the $40 median target cited in the December 7 Motley Fool article, which suggests that different data providers and weighting schemes are producing meaningfully different headline numbers, even though they’re all drawing from a similar small analyst pool. [22]
Taken together, these estimates paint a picture of high dispersion: some analysts see Rigetti as materially overvalued at current levels, while others still model substantial upside if the roadmap plays out.
Valuation versus peers
In broader quantum coverage on Nasdaq, Rigetti is singled out as one of the most expensive stocks in the group on a sales multiple basis: [23]
- IonQ: ~159× this year’s sales.
- Rigetti: ~1,100× this year’s sales (and nearly 5,000× annualized Q3 revenue in another estimate).
- Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT): ~3,400× this year’s sales.
Even bullish commentators concede that these are bubble‑like multiples that leave little margin for execution missteps.
Key risks and pressures highlighted in recent analysis
1. Q3 miss and DARPA setback
A detailed MarketBeat article from mid‑November, still widely cited in December coverage, focuses on two main issues: [24]
- Q3 revenue miss:
- Q3 revenue of about $1.95 million missed estimates (~$2.17 million) and declined year over year, underscoring the slow pace of commercial adoption.
- DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI) Phase B exclusion:
- Rigetti was not selected for Phase B of DARPA’s QBI program, which is aimed at evaluating systems capable of demonstrating quantum advantage.
- This means loss of non‑dilutive government funding and prestige in a high‑profile government program, at least for now.
- The company says it received constructive feedback and remains in dialogue with DARPA, but in the meantime must lean more heavily on its own cash and partnerships.
The same article argues that Rigetti’s roadmap leaves it roughly 2–3 years behind larger rivals like IBM and IonQ in terms of qubit counts and system maturity, though its proprietary fab could help close the gap. [25]
2. Extreme volatility and bubble concerns
Recent headlines track what looks like a classic boom‑bust‑boom pattern:
- November meltdown:
- Quantum‑focused coverage on Yahoo Finance and other outlets described a “quantum stock meltdown” in November, with RGTI, IonQ, and D‑Wave Quantum suffering large drawdowns as investors reconsidered sky‑high valuations. [26]
- Separate pieces note Rigetti stock plunged about 40–42% in a single month, even after its huge multi‑year run. [27]
- December whipsaw:
- On Thursday, Dec. 4, Rigetti stock skyrocketed ~15.4%, helped by renewed excitement around U.S. quantum policy and perceived national‑security urgency, as well as media coverage of a Nobel laureate warning that the U.S. may be just “nanoseconds” ahead of China in quantum. [28]
- On Friday, Dec. 5, the stock dropped 6.5% to $28.11, retracing part of that move, even as some articles highlighted continued optimism and institutional buying interest. [29]
- Bubble language:
- Multiple November and early‑December articles, including ones flagged on Finviz and MarketBeat, explicitly position quantum stocks — including Rigetti — as part of a possible 2026 market bubble candidate, separate from artificial intelligence. [30]
3. Insider and institutional flows
Recent filings and analyses show a mixed picture:
- Insider selling:
- MarketBeat reports that in recent months, Rigetti directors sold over 400,000 shares combined, including sizable sales near $19 and $45 per share, and that insiders currently own under 2% of the company. [31]
- Institutional buying:
- At the same time, Legal & General Group, Franklin Resources, Marex Group, and Rhumbline Advisers have all disclosed new or increased positions in RGTI in filings summarized over December 5–6. [32]
Other commentary highlights that institutional investors broadly piled into quantum stocks like IonQ, Rigetti, D‑Wave, and Quantum Computing Inc. earlier in 2025 — and may now be reevaluating those bets after the recent drawdowns. [33]
How the weekend’s narratives might influence Monday trading
While no new company‑specific filings appear to have hit the wire on December 7 itself, the tone and reach of the weekend coverage could matter when trading resumes.
1. Retail sentiment via high‑traffic outlets
Motley Fool and Nasdaq pieces are widely read by retail and growth‑oriented investors. The December 7 articles present two simultaneous narratives:
- Bullish optionality:
- Rigetti is a rare pure‑play quantum stock with visible government and enterprise contracts, a sizable cash pile, and an ambitious hardware roadmap. [34]
- Valuation and timeline concerns:
- The same articles warn that quantum’s commercial payoff is likely many years away, and that Rigetti’s current valuation — in the thousands of times sales — leaves almost no room for execution risk. [35]
Additionally, a December 6 article titled “Forget Rigetti Computing and Buy This Safer Quantum Stock Instead” leans into the idea that RGTI’s 667% one‑year gain (as of Dec. 3) and 57% drop from October highs make it a poor risk‑adjusted bet compared with more diversified or established peers. [36]
The net effect: sentiment looks polarized — some investors may treat Monday as another buying opportunity in a high‑beta winner, while others see an overextended story best avoided.
2. Macro and policy drivers
Last week’s 15% surge in RGTI was linked in part to broader market optimism about interest‑rate cuts and U.S. government focus on quantum technology for national security. [37]
Given Rigetti’s:
- lack of current profits,
- long‑duration R&D roadmap, and
- dependence on government and strategic contracts,
the stock tends to trade like a leveraged bet on future funding and risk appetite. Any Monday morning headlines around Federal Reserve expectations, U.S.–China tech tensions, or quantum funding initiatives could therefore influence early order flow.
3. Technical setup
From MarketBeat’s and Finviz’s statistical snapshots: [38]
- RGTI closed Friday:
- Below its 50‑day simple moving average (~$35.14).
- Above its 200‑day moving average (~$22.15).
- It remains:
- Well below its 52‑week high of $58.15, and
- Multiple times its 52‑week low of $3.31.
That combination — massive prior gains, a big recent drawdown, and still‑elevated levels versus the long‑term average — is exactly the sort of profile momentum and quant traders focus on. High volume around the open would not be surprising.
Key questions for investors to answer before trading RGTI on Dec. 8
Given all of the above, here are practical questions to consider before placing orders on Monday:
1. What exactly is your thesis?
- Technology‑driven thesis:
- You believe Rigetti’s chiplet architecture, vertical integration, and in‑house fab will let it scale to fault‑tolerant quantum systems faster than rivals, and that its current contracts (AFRL, on‑premise systems, academic and international partnerships) are early hints of a much larger opportunity. [39]
- Momentum/speculation thesis:
- You’re primarily trading volatility and sentiment, not long‑term fundamentals — accepting that headlines alone can swing the stock double‑digits in a day.
The weekend articles strongly imply that Rigetti is better suited to the second camp for now, even according to bullish commentators.
2. Are you comfortable with the time horizon?
- Multiple analyses stress that commercially meaningful quantum applications may still be 5–10+ years away, especially for fault‑tolerant systems, even if milestone systems ship in 2026–2027. [40]
- In the meantime, results will likely remain lumpy and small in dollar terms, with quarters like Q3 showing sub‑$2 million revenue and sizable losses.
If your investment horizon is short or you need near‑term earnings growth, RGTI may not fit.
3. How much valuation risk can you tolerate?
- On December 7, multiple sources simultaneously describe Rigetti as:
- Up hundreds or thousands of percent in less than two years, and
- Trading at thousands of times current revenue. [41]
- Even supportive coverage calls the valuation “unsustainable” without exceptional execution, and some broader market pieces warn that quantum could be one of 2026’s major bubble risks. [42]
If a further 30–50% drawdown would be unacceptable for you, that’s an important signal.
4. How do insider and institutional moves factor into your view?
- Recent months saw significant insider selling at much lower prices than recent highs. [43]
- On the other hand, large asset managers like Legal & General, Franklin Resources, Marex, and Rhumbline have reported new or increased positions in RGTI. [44]
There’s no single “right” way to interpret this, but it underscores that sophisticated investors are on both sides of the trade.
5. Would diversified exposure make more sense?
Some recent research — including an article on quantum ETFs as alternatives to picking individual names — argues that given the extreme dispersion of potential outcomes, many investors may be better served with basket or ETF exposure to the quantum theme rather than relying on one or two pure‑plays like RGTI. [45]
Final thoughts: Rigetti going into Monday’s open
Going into December 8, 2025, Rigetti Computing sits at the crossroads of:
- Cutting‑edge technology with genuine partnerships and a credible hardware roadmap; [46]
- Extremely stretched valuation metrics, even relative to other speculative growth stocks; [47]
- Intensifying media and analyst scrutiny, including December 7 coverage that simultaneously highlights the upside optionality and bubble‑like risks; [48]
- High volatility, with daily double‑digit moves and large monthly drawdowns now part of the story. [49]
For traders and investors watching the stock at Monday’s open, the most important step is to be very clear about your risk tolerance, time horizon, and thesis. Rigetti can still be a compelling way to express a view on quantum computing’s future — but based on the latest forecasts and commentary, it remains a high‑risk, high‑reward speculation, not a low‑drama compounder.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or tax advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
References
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