Telstra (ASX:TLS) Share Price Near 52‑Week High as Senate Scrutiny Meets Bullish Analyst Upgrades

Telstra Group Limited (ASX:TLS) shares are trading just under the A$5 mark on 8 December 2025, leaving Australia’s largest telecom group close to the top of its 52‑week range as investors weigh fresh regulatory scrutiny against a string of earnings beats, share buybacks and upgraded analyst valuations. ^[1]

The latest catalyst is a Senate inquiry into Triple Zero reliability, which has pulled Telstra’s emergency‑call performance into the political spotlight at the same time Morningstar has lifted its fair value estimate for the stock and reaffirmed its view of Telstra as a “defensive” compounder under its new Connected Future 30 strategy. ^[2]

Telstra share price today: firmly in the A$4.9–5.0 band

As of the close on Friday, 5 December 2025, Telstra finished at A$4.89 per share, giving the group a market capitalisation of about A$55.2 billion. ^[3]

Intraday data and Morningstar quotes show the stock trading around A$4.95 on 8 December, up a little over 1% and keeping TLS near the top of its 52‑week trading range of A$3.84 to A$5.14. ^[4]

Over the past year, Telstra shares have delivered a mid‑teens to low‑20s percentage gain, outpacing many other defensive, dividend‑oriented ASX names as investors rotated toward stable cash‑flow generators and fully‑franked yields. ^[5]

New headline today: Triple Zero inquiry shines a light on network reliability

On 8 December 2025, ChannelNews reported that Telstra CEO Vicki Brady and TPG Telecom CEO Iñaki Berroeta have been called to appear before a Senate inquiry into failures of Australia’s Triple Zero emergency call service. ^[6]

Key points from the latest reporting:

Senators are expanding their probe beyond Optus’ high‑profile outage in September to look at systemic weaknesses across all three mobile networks.
Telstra disclosed in October that certain Samsung phones on its network could fail to “camp” onto rival networks like Vodafone in an emergency, leaving some customers unable to complete Triple Zero calls when their primary network is down. ^[7]
More than 100,000 Samsung devices on Telstra’s network need software updates, and several thousand require outright replacement to ensure emergency‑call compatibility. ^[8]

From an equity‑market perspective, the immediate risk is reputational and regulatory rather than financial. Telstra is already operating under close scrutiny from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), which in October secured an A$18 million Federal Court penalty after the company reduced broadband upload speeds for roughly 9,000 NBN customers without properly informing them. ^[9]

The Triple Zero hearings add another layer of oversight just as Telstra leans heavily on its “most reliable network” branding and seeks premium pricing in mobile and fixed connectivity.

Morningstar upgrade: “shrinking to greatness” and a higher fair value

Balancing the political noise, Morningstar released a new research article on 8 December titled “This ASX share is shrinking to greatness”, focused squarely on Telstra. ^[10]

The research house highlights several points:

Telstra is around six months into its five‑year “Connected Future 30” strategy, targeting mid‑single‑digit compound annual growth in cash earnings from FY25 to FY30 and “a sustainable and growing dividend.” ^[11]
Its InfraCo‑Fixed and tower vehicle Amplitel together contribute roughly 25% of group earnings and are underpinned by long‑term contracts and NBN‑related cash flows, meriting a lower cost of equity than the broader market. ^[12]
Morningstar now assumes a 6.5% weighted average cost of capital (WACC), down from 6.8%, reflecting what it sees as more predictable earnings. That adjustment alone lifts Telstra’s fair value estimate by 8% to A$5.40 per share. ^[13]

On Morningstar’s numbers, Telstra trades at roughly a 10% discount to intrinsic value, retains a “narrow moat” rating and now carries a Low uncertainty rating, putting it squarely in the “defensive quality” bucket of the ASX 200. ^[14]

Separately, a Reuters‑syndicated note via TradingView reported that Telstra shares rose after Morningstar’s fair‑value upgrade, underscoring the influence of that research on institutional sentiment. ^[15]

Earnings, dividends and buybacks: the cash‑return story

Telstra’s recent financial performance gives some context to the optimistic research:

For FY25, Telstra reported underlying operating earnings (EBITDA) of A$8.61 billion, up 14% year on year, and statutory profit of A$2.34 billion, a 31% jump. ^[16]
Reuters data show FY25 revenue of about A$23.1 billion and net income of A$2.17 billion, confirming healthy margins in a relatively mature domestic telecom market. ^[17]
The company’s half‑year FY25 results earlier in the year already showed momentum, with EBITDA up 6% to A$4.2 billion, profit up 7.1% and earnings per share up 6%. ^[18]

Dividends have started to move higher again:

Telstra has paid two fully franked dividends of A$0.095 per share in 2025 (interim and final), up from A$0.09 in 2024. ^[19]
On a trailing basis, that equates to A$0.19 per share over 12 months. At a share price close to A$4.90–5.00, that’s a cash yield of roughly 3.8–3.9%, before accounting for franking credits that are valuable to Australian tax residents. ^[20]

On the capital‑management side, Telstra has been aggressive:

In February 2025 it launched an A$750 million on‑market buyback, funded by surplus cash and a strengthening balance sheet. ^[21]
In August 2025, after posting its stronger FY25 profit, the board approved an additional A$1 billion buyback, lifting total announced repurchases to A$1.75 billion. ^[22]

These buybacks, combined with slowly rising dividends, are central to the Connected Future 30 promise of growing cash earnings and improving return on invested capital (ROIC) toward 10% by FY30, from around 8% today. ^[23]

Broker and consensus forecasts: steady growth, higher dividends

Consensus data compiled by Simply Wall St, based on forecasts from a dozen analysts covering Telstra, point to moderate but reliable growth rather than explosive expansion: ^[24]

Earnings are forecast to grow about 4.8% per year, slower than the broader Australian market’s expected 12%.
Revenue is projected to rise around 2.3% annually to roughly A$24.8 billion by FY28, reinforcing Telstra’s profile as a mature, cash‑generative incumbent.
Future return on equity is forecast to be about 19% in three years, respectable for a regulated utility‑like business.

Dividend forecasts are more generous:

Research cited by outlets such as Motley Fool, drawing on UBS estimates, suggests Telstra’s annual dividend could reach about A$0.21 per share in FY26, with room for gradual increases toward the end of the decade if earnings track management’s guidance. ^[25]

At today’s share price, that implies the potential for a grossed‑up yield approaching 6% for eligible Australian investors, which is a key part of the bull case for longer‑term, income‑oriented holders.

Short‑term trading outlook: technicals point to “hold/accumulate”

Technical analysis service StockInvest.us currently classifies Telstra as a “hold/accumulate” candidate. ^[26]

For the trading day of Monday, 8 December 2025, the site projected:

A “fair” opening price of A$4.89, matching the prior close.
An expected intraday trading range between A$4.86 and A$4.92, roughly ±1.4% around the last close, based on the 14‑day Average True Range.
Nearby support around A$4.88 and resistance near A$4.90–4.92, suggesting tight consolidation just below the psychological A$5 level. ^[27]

StockInvest also notes the 52‑week high of A$5.14 and low of A$3.84, reinforcing how far the share price has climbed from its trough as investors grew more comfortable with Telstra’s earnings visibility and strategy reset. ^[28]

Strategy check: Connected Future 30, AI and network expansion

Telstra’s current equity story is inseparable from its Connected Future 30 roadmap, launched in May 2025 as the successor to its T22 and T25 transformation programs. ^[29]

Key elements include:

Mid‑single‑digit CAGR in cash earnings to FY30, underpinned by disciplined cost control, more focused capex and portfolio pruning. ^[30]
A target ROIC of 10% by FY30, above Telstra’s cost of capital. ^[31]
Treating the network as a “product”, with customers able to dial connectivity attributes up or down and pay accordingly, rather than accepting “best‑effort” service levels. ^[32]
Heavy use of AI and automation across customer service, software development and network management, with more than 80 AI use cases already deployed. ^[33]

This strategic shift comes with a social and political cost: Telstra has admitted it expects its workforce to shrink by 2030 as AI‑driven efficiencies accumulate, a point highlighted in reporting by The Guardian. ^[34]

Network investment and rationalisation continue in parallel:

Telstra is upgrading and occasionally disrupting regional mobile coverage — for example, planned outages in Tasmania’s Central Highlands and Dundee regions this month as base stations are modernised. ^[35]
In Victoria, its tower subsidiary Amplitel has faced local backlash over a proposed 26‑metre 5G tower at St Andrews Beach, illustrating the planning risk attached to rural coverage expansion. ^[36]
At the wholesale and international level, Telstra has agreed to sell a slice of its global voice and messaging customer contracts to iBASIS, and struck a separate deal with Infosys to sell a 75% stake in its Versent Group unit, crystallising value from non‑core assets. ^[37]
The group is also working with SpaceX to bring satellite‑based connectivity to regional customers, an important plank in its coverage and resilience narrative. ^[38]

All of this feeds back into the same theme: slim down, automate, recycle capital, and focus on connectivity, where Telstra’s scale and spectrum holdings offer a competitive edge.

Risks for Telstra shareholders: regulation, competition and execution

Despite the upbeat analyst commentary, several risks remain front of mind for investors:

Regulatory and political risk – The Triple Zero inquiry joins the recent Federal Court penalty over broadband speeds and continuing ACCC scrutiny of pricing and market power, especially in regional areas. ^[39]
Community and ESG concerns – Tower rollouts like the St Andrews Beach Amplitel proposal show that even when regulators are supportive, local residents can delay or reshape network expansions. ^[40]
Intense competition – TPG and Optus remain aggressive in mobile and fixed broadband, with TPG in particular leveraging a network‑sharing deal and NBN divestments to refocus on mobile growth. ^[41]
Execution of AI and cost‑out plans – Telstra’s promise to cut more costs and use AI to drive efficiency is central to its mid‑single‑digit earnings growth target; any mis‑steps could undermine both staff morale and financial outcomes. ^[42]

For now, the balance of opinion among major research houses is that Telstra’s scale, spectrum position and infrastructure assets give it the firepower to navigate these challenges — but the Senate hearings will keep operational resilience and emergency‑call performance in the headlines for some time.

Bottom line: a defensive income stock at a modest discount to fair value

On 8 December 2025, Telstra Group Limited stands at an interesting crossroads:

The share price is close to its 52‑week high yet still sits modestly below Morningstar’s upgraded A$5.40 fair value. ^[43]
Fully franked dividends are rising again, with consensus expecting further increases through the back half of the decade. ^[44]
The Connected Future 30 plan sketches a credible, if unglamorous, path to steady cash‑flow growth and improved returns, helped by digital infrastructure, AI and selective asset sales. ^[45]
At the same time, regulatory and political risks are rising, especially around emergency‑call reliability and consumer protection. ^[46]