Bumitama Agri has gone from quiet plantation play to market darling.
The Indonesia‑focused palm oil producer, listed in Singapore as SGX:P8Z and often traded under the ticker BUMI, has surged this year on the back of high crude palm oil (CPO) prices, strong production, and more generous dividends. As of 8 December 2025, the stock trades around S$1.33, close to the upper end of its 52‑week range of S$0.72 to S$1.60. [1]
The rally has left investors asking the classic question: is there still upside, or has most of the easy money already been made?
This deep dive pulls together the latest financial results, analyst calls, dividend data, palm‑oil market trends and ESG developments available up to 8 December 2025.
Where Bumitama Agri’s share price and valuation stand now
Based on StockAnalysis and Bumitama’s own investor site, Bumitama Agri’s share price recently closed at S$1.32–1.33, giving it a market capitalisation of roughly S$2.3 billion. [2]
Key snapshot metrics (trailing twelve months, TTM):
- Share price: ~S$1.33
- Market cap: ~S$2.29 billion [3]
- Revenue (TTM): ~S$1.48 billion equivalent
- Net income (TTM): ~S$211.6 million
- EPS (TTM): S$0.12
- P/E ratio: ~10.8x (forward P/E ~10.9x) [4]
- 52‑week range: S$0.72 – S$1.60 [5]
- Beta: ~0.12 (very low correlation to the broader market) [6]
That P/E multiple sits below what Simply Wall St notes is common for many Singapore stocks, where a large chunk of the market trades above 15x earnings. [7]
On income metrics, Bumitama remains yield‑heavy:
- Trailing 12‑month dividend per share: about S$0.09, implying a ~6.8–7% trailing yield at recent prices. [8]
- The last dividend (August 2025 interim) was S$0.0363 per share. [9]
- Dividend tracker Digrin estimates a forward yield around 5.5% with a three‑year dividend growth rate of ~30% annually. [10]
In other words: the stock has rerated upwards, but it still trades at a single‑digit yield and an earnings multiple below many local peers.
What Bumitama Agri actually does
Bumitama is a pure upstream palm‑oil producer. It doesn’t make branded cooking oil or margarine; it grows oil palms, harvests fresh fruit bunches (FFB), and runs mills to produce crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel (PK) in Indonesia.
A few structural points that matter for investors:
- The group manages about 185–190 thousand hectares of oil‑palm plantations and 17 mills across Central and West Kalimantan and Riau. [11]
- Over 96% of planted area is mature, with an average tree age of around 14 years – the sweet spot for palm productivity. [12]
- Bumitama processes more than 5 million tonnes of FFB annually and has achieved CPO yields around 4.1–4.7 tonnes per hectare, placing it among the more efficient producers. [13]
- From 2012 to 2023, revenue grew at roughly 14% compound annual growth, while net profit rose about 11% per year. [14]
- The balance sheet is conservative, with net gearing (~net debt/equity) around 0.1x in recent years. [15]
The company’s scale is increasingly recognised: Bumitama re‑entered the Fortune Southeast Asia 500 in 2025, ranking 259th by revenue. [16]
Mature estates, high yields and modest leverage together explain why Bumitama reliably spits out cash – and why the dividend cheques keep getting fatter.
2024: a record revenue year with some margin bruises
Before the 2025 rebound, 2024 was a mixed year:
- FY24 revenue: about IDR 16.73 trillion, up 8.3% year‑on‑year.
- FY24 earnings: around IDR 2.29 trillion, down roughly 6.6% vs 2023. [17]
GrowBeansprout attributes the dip in profit largely to higher costs (especially from buying more external FFB) and foreign‑exchange losses, despite still elevated CPO prices. [18]
The takeaway: operationally solid, but cost and FX headwinds showed that even efficient upstream players get whacked when input and currency lines misbehave.
2025 so far: profits and volumes surge back
First half 2025: earnings and dividend step up hard
For the first half of FY2025, The Edge Singapore reported a powerful recovery: [19]
- 1H25 net profit:IDR 1.27 trillion, up 47.8% year‑on‑year.
- 1H25 revenue:IDR 9.74 trillion, up 28.2%.
- EPS: up from IDR 494 to IDR 730.
- Gross profit: +43% to IDR 2.57 trillion, with gross margin rising from 23.7% to 26.4%.
Price and volume did the heavy lifting:
- Average selling prices for CPO and PK jumped about 21.6% and 92.4% respectively vs the prior year.
- CPO production surged 17% year‑on‑year.
- FFB yield climbed about 8% to 9.2 tonnes per hectare, and oil‑extraction rate ticked up to 22.4%. [20]
Crucially for income investors, Bumitama unveiled its upgraded dividend policy in action:
- It tripled its interim dividend from 1.20 cents to 3.63 Singapore cents per share.
- At the time of announcement in August, that represented a yield of about 4.4% just on the interim payout, at a share price of S$0.89. [21]
GrowBeansprout notes that the group has raised its payout ratio to 60% of earnings in 2024, from 55% previously, and that 2024’s total dividend of 6.64 cents translated to a historical yield near 9% at older share prices. [22]
Q3 and 9M 2025: growth slows, but stays robust
The story remains positive into the third quarter, though the growth pace cooled.
According to The Edge and The Business Times: [23]
- 3Q25 net profit:IDR 602.9 billion, up 1% year‑on‑year.
- 9M25 net profit: about IDR 1.87 trillion, up around 28–29%.
- 3Q25 revenue:IDR 3.87 trillion, down 2.8% vs a year ago.
- 9M25 revenue:IDR 13.6 trillion, up 17–18%.
Operationally, production has been the star:
- Internal FFB harvest reached 2.54 million tonnes for 9M25, +8% year‑on‑year, despite record rainfall in parts of Central Kalimantan that temporarily disrupted deliveries. [24]
- CPO accounted for about 84% of sales, PK the remaining 16%, with average selling prices up 17% (CPO) and 75% (PK) vs the prior year‑to‑date period. [25]
- CPO output rose about 18%, helped by both internal FFB and a 33% surge in third‑party FFB volumes. [26]
Management and analysts repeatedly flag the fourth quarter as the peak crop period, so Q4 numbers will likely determine how much of 2025’s CPO price strength flows through into full‑year profit.
Share‑price performance: from deep value to re‑rated dividend growth
The market has noticed.
Simply Wall St notes that: [27]
- Over the last five years, Bumitama’s share price is up roughly 79%, while total shareholder return (TSR) – including reinvested dividends – is about 171%.
- Over the past year, TSR is around 39%, and a separate analysis in October highlighted an 86% share‑price gain over 12 months and a 27% rise over just 30 days.
Dr Wealth, in an October 2025 article, calls Bumitama a “70% YTD” winner, arguing that:
- The company has consistently outgrown peers in revenue over the last decade.
- It sits among the margin outliers in the palm‑oil space, with higher operating margins, superior return on assets (~11.4%) and one of the lowest debt‑to‑equity ratios (~19%) in its peer group. [28]
That re‑rating has moved the stock from “ridiculously cheap” to “merely reasonably priced”:
- Dr Wealth recalls Bumitama trading on around 5x P/E with >7% yield before the rally.
- After the run, they estimate a P/E near 11–12x and a still‑healthy but lower yield around 5.6%, noting that the margin for error has shrunk. [29]
Simply Wall St’s October valuation piece, using data from late October, put Bumitama on a P/E of around 11.9x – still below many Singapore names despite above‑average near‑term earnings growth. [30]
The dividend machine: yield today, growth yesterday
Dividends are a core part of the Bumitama investment story.
Several data points line up:
- Simply Wall St calculates return on equity (ROE) of about 20%, versus an industry average near 8.5%, and a three‑year median payout ratio of ~49%, implying roughly half of earnings are retained for growth. [31]
- Bumitama has paid dividends for at least a decade and recently raised its formal payout ratio to 60% of earnings. [32]
- As noted, TTM dividends of about S$0.09 imply a ~7% trailing yield, while Digrin’s forward yield estimate sits closer to 5.5% at today’s higher share price, with 30% annual dividend growth over the last three years. [33]
OCBC’s October 2025 note, “Checks and Balances”, explicitly links its valuation uplift to Bumitama’s willingness to “enhance shareholder returns by raising dividends”, and estimates a forward 12‑month yield of around 6% as of late October, even after a sharp rally. [34]
The trade‑off is obvious: higher payouts support yield‑hungry investors but reduce reinvested capital, especially in a business where returns on equity are high. Analysts at Simply Wall St also flag that despite high ROE and increasing dividends, consensus expects earnings to shrink modestly in coming years, a point we’ll come back to. [35]
Analyst views and price targets: cautious optimism
Broker and platform commentary is broadly positive, but no longer euphoric.
Local brokers
Recent moves include:
- RHB Bank Singapore downgraded Bumitama from “Buy” to “Neutral” in July 2025, cutting its target price from S$0.90 to S$0.80 after a strong run, even as it acknowledged solid operations. [36]
- OCBC downgraded from Buy to Hold in August 2025’s “A Bountiful Harvest” report after a roughly 30% price surge, despite highlighting strong H1 results and the tripled interim dividend. [37]
- In October’s “Checks and Balances”, OCBC raised its fair value estimate from S$1.20 to S$1.30 but stuck with a HOLD rating. It increased its target FY25 P/E multiple from 9.2x to 9.5x (slightly above the 10‑year average) but applied a discount for rising regulatory risk in Indonesia (see ESG section below). [38]
- Maybank downgraded Bumitama from Buy to Hold in mid‑November, setting a higher target price of S$1.44, citing valuation after a sharp re‑rating. [39]
Other analyst and platform signals
- A Dow Jones/MarketWatch note in November reported that DBS maintained a Buy call on Bumitama’s Frankfurt‑listed line (ticker 2BU), underscoring that not all brokers are in “wait‑and‑see” mode. [40]
- MarketScreener’s editorial piece summarises consensus expectations of net profit rising only gently from around IDR 2.7 trillion in 2025 to IDR 2.9 trillion by 2027, with a mixed recommendation set of three Buys and one Hold. [41]
- On the more quantitative side, Investing.com aggregates analyst targets into a consensus price of about S$1.556, implying roughly 17% upside from the current S$1.33 level, and tags the fundamental analyst sentiment as “Buy”. [42]
- In contrast, its technical indicator dashboard presently rates the stock “Strong Sell” on shorter‑term momentum and moving‑average signals – not uncommon after a big run. [43]
Put bluntly: fundamental analysts mostly like the business, but valuation and new risks justify more neutral ratings, while short‑term chart technicians are wary after a steep climb.
Palm‑oil market backdrop: high prices, tight supply, awkward geopolitics
Bumitama is essentially a leveraged bet on palm‑oil fundamentals, so the macro backdrop matters.
Several sources line up on the same broad picture:
- Over the past few years, CPO prices have oscillated in a relatively high band, often between MYR 3,500 and 4,500 per tonne, with spikes above MYR 5,000 in 2022 after the Russia‑Ukraine war disrupted global edible‑oil supply. [44]
- Beansprout notes that while prices have cooled from the 2022 extremes, they appear to have reset at a structurally higher level around MYR 4,000, supported by years of under‑planting and Indonesia’s aggressive biodiesel programme, which diverts CPO into fuel (B40 and talk of B45/B50 mandates). [45]
- Bumitama itself highlighted that palm oil has regained competitiveness versus substitutes: in 2Q25, palm oil traded at a sizeable discount of roughly US$155 per tonne to soybean oil, compared with a premium in earlier quarters. [46]
- The Business Times and OCBC both emphasise strong import demand from India and delayed implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) by a year, which together ease near‑term demand and compliance pressure on producers. [47]
Dr Wealth points out that prices above MYR 3,800 per tonne are generally very comfortable for upstream producers, leaving ample room for profits even after higher labour and fertiliser costs. [48]
The flip side: palm oil is a commodity and notoriously cyclical. What high prices give, oversupply or policy changes can quickly take away.
ESG and regulatory crosswinds: NDPE, conservation – and new fines
In 2025, investors can’t talk about palm‑oil stocks without talking about ESG risk.
Bumitama’s sustainability story
Bumitama has spent years trying to shed the industry’s worst reputational baggage:
- It adopted a No Deforestation, No Peat, No Exploitation (NDPE) policy over a decade ago and regularly updates sustainability commitments and reporting via dedicated reports. [49]
- DollarsAndSense highlights that the company manages around 40,000 hectares of conservation areas, works with local communities and biodiversity experts on ecosystem restoration, and has been recognised with an RSPO Excellence Award in Conservation Leadership in 2023. [50]
That is the “good citizen” side of the equation.
NGO scrutiny and forest‑zone regulation
The other side is more uncomfortable:
- An August 2025 report by environmental NGO Mighty Earth used satellite imagery to claim about 228 hectares of deforestation in one Bumitama‑linked concession between 2022 and 2024, plus further land‑use change in mid‑2025. [51]
- The same report lists Bumitama among groups whose palm oil is supplied to major global traders and consumer brands, underscoring how ESG controversies can echo through the supply chain. [52]
At the same time, policy risk inside Indonesia is rising. OCBC’s October note flags Government Regulation No. 45/2025, under which:
- Plantations operating inside designated forest zones may face fines of IDR 25 million per hectare per year, and
- There is potential for land confiscation in non‑compliant cases, leading to one‑off fines and ongoing earnings drag. [53]
OCBC incorporates these land‑compliance risks by:
- Raising its target multiple slightly to reflect strong operations and better dividends,
- But applying a 2.5% discount to that multiple to account for regulatory uncertainty, and
- Concluding that while the forward dividend yield near 6% is attractive, investors should be prepared for occasional negative headlines as rules are enforced. [54]
ESG for Bumitama is therefore neither simple “green good guy” nor “irredeemable villain”; it’s an ongoing tug‑of‑war between improved practices, market recognition, and intensifying scrutiny.
Quality of the business: ROE, growth and balance sheet
If you ignore the commodity noise and look at plain‑vanilla fundamentals, Bumitama scores well:
- ROE around 20%, far above the sector’s 8–9% average, according to Simply Wall St’s June‑2025‑era numbers. [55]
- Net income growth of roughly 14% per year over the last five years, in line with the broader industry. [56]
- TSR of 171% over five years, meaning dividends have significantly boosted investor returns beyond the 79% share‑price gain; again, this is consistent with a company that steadily pays and grows its dividend. [57]
- Low leverage and improving balance sheet metrics, with net gearing near 0.1x. [58]
Simply Wall St does, however, highlight one interesting tension: their forward‑looking model suggests earnings might shrink modestly in the future, even as payout ratios creep higher. [59]
That combination – high ROE, higher payouts, but only flat‑to‑slightly‑higher earnings – is exactly what you’d expect in a business that is:
- Very profitable,
- Reaching maturity in its asset base, and
- Operating in a cyclical commodity where volume and price growth are constrained by external factors (weather, policy, ESG).
Short‑term technicals vs long‑term thesis
On trading screens, Bumitama looks tired in the near term:
- Investing.com’s technical dashboard currently labels BUMI a “Strong Sell” on daily indicators, reflecting overbought conditions and pullbacks from the recent S$1.60 high. [60]
- At the same time, the same page shows analyst sentiment as “Buy” and a consensus target around S$1.556, implying about 17% upside from S$1.33. [61]
- StockAnalysis reports a 44% one‑year price gain and a market‑cap jump of over 50% year‑on‑year, which naturally makes momentum traders nervous about a correction. [62]
If you like reading tea leaves in charts, that divergence between technical “Strong Sell” and fundamental “Buy/Hold” is a big flashing sign that time horizon matters:
- Short‑term: the stock has run hard, and a pullback or consolidation would be entirely normal.
- Medium‑to‑long‑term: the combination of mid‑teens ROE, a 5–7% dividend yield, and moderately‑priced earnings is still compelling if CPO prices behave and regulatory risk doesn’t bite too hard.
Key risks: what could break the thesis?
Summarising the downside arguments from brokers, NGOs and company filings:
- Palm‑oil price correction
- If CPO slides back below MYR 3,000–3,500/t because of better weather, higher planting, or weaker crude‑oil and veg‑oil prices, upstream margins will get squeezed fast. Both Beansprout and DollarsAndSense emphasise that CPO price volatility is the single biggest earnings driver. [63]
- Weather shocks
- Bumitama’s own Q3 update flagged record rainfall in Central Kalimantan affecting deliveries even as FFB output rose. [64]
- Droughts, floods or El Niño/La Niña events can cut yields or disrupt harvesting in ways that models don’t handle gracefully.
- Tighter Indonesian regulations
- Regulation 45/2025 introduces potentially material fines for plantations in forest zones, with land confiscation on the table. OCBC explicitly warns this could create one‑off hits and sustained earnings drag for affected areas. [65]
- ESG and deforestation accusations
- The Mighty Earth report’s allegation of ~228 hectares of deforestation on a Bumitama‑linked concession between 2022 and 2024 shows that past issues are not entirely behind the group. [66]
- Large buyers and consumer brands are increasingly willing to cut suppliers that violate NDPE standards, regardless of company‑level awards.
- Currency and political risk
- Bumitama earns in Indonesian rupiah but reports to many investors in Singapore dollars, so FX swings can magnify or mask underlying performance. [67]
- Changes in Indonesian tax policy, export levies or biodiesel subsidies could also change the economics quickly.
- Valuation risk after a big run
- As Dr Wealth notes, buying at 5x P/E with 7–8% yield is very different from buying at 11x with 5–7% yield. The margin of safety is smaller now, even if the business is still attractive. [68]
So where does that leave Bumitama Agri stock?
Pulling it all together, the current setup for Bumitama Agri (as of 8 December 2025) looks roughly like this:
What’s going for it
- Operational excellence: high yields, strong margins, and robust volume growth in 1H and 9M25. [69]
- Balance‑sheet strength: low gearing, ample capacity to absorb shocks and keep paying dividends. [70]
- Cash returns: trailing yield near 7%, forward yield estimated around 5–6%, with a history of growing dividends. [71]
- Reasonable valuation: P/E around 10–11x and ROE around 20% put it in “quality at a fair price” territory rather than bubble land. [72]
- Supportive macro (for now): CPO prices are high enough to fatten margins, with tight global supply and strong demand from biodiesel mandates and major importers. [73]
What’s working against it
- The share price has already rerated sharply in 2024–25; several brokers have shifted from Buy to Hold as targets are reached or nearly reached. [74]
- Technical indicators are flashing “Strong Sell” in the near term, suggesting momentum traders expect a breather. [75]
- Regulatory and ESG risks are rising, not falling – from forest‑zone fines in Indonesia to EU deforestation rules and NGO investigations. [76]
- Consensus expects only modest net‑profit growth from 2025 to 2027, even as payout ratios and regulatory costs trend higher. [77]
For long‑term, fundamentals‑driven investors, Bumitama today looks less like a “hidden gem” and more like a high‑quality, high‑yield cyclical that has already entered the spotlight:
- If CPO prices stay in their current range and regulatory costs are manageable, the combination of mid‑single‑digit earnings growth plus a mid‑single‑digit dividend yield could still produce attractive total returns.
- If palm‑oil prices roll over or land‑use fines turn out heavier than expected, the stock has plenty of room to de‑rate from its post‑rally P/E multiple, especially given its sharp move since 2023.
Either way, Bumitama Agri has earned its place on investors’ watchlists. Just remember that this is still a commodity stock at heart: the numbers look great today, but the story will move with rain clouds, regulation, and the invisible price of the oil in your chocolate spread.
References
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