Tokyo Stock Market Today: Nikkei 225 Edges Higher as Stable Yen Offsets SoftBank Slump Ahead of BoJ Rate Decision

Tokyo’s stock market finished Monday, 8 December 2025, slightly higher, as a pause in recent yen strength and a rebound in property stocks outweighed a sharp fall in heavyweight SoftBank Group. The move came despite a surprisingly weak GDP revision and rising expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates at its meeting later this month. ^[1]

Key takeaways for Tokyo stock market today (8 December 2025)

Nikkei 225 closed around 50,581.94, up about 0.2% on the day, while the broader Topix gained roughly 0.7% to finish near 3,384, outpacing the price‑weighted Nikkei. ^[2]
SoftBank Group dropped about 3.3%, shaving more than 100 points off the Nikkei, but real estate shares rallied over 3%, supported by a stable yen and unwinding of last week’s sharp sector moves. ^[3]
Newly revised data showed Japan’s Q3 2025 GDP contracted at an annualised 2.3%, worse than the earlier 1.8% estimate, yet economists still expect a BoJ rate hike on 18–19 December. ^[4]
Rising Japanese government bond yields, a firmer yen and global caution ahead of this week’s Federal Reservedecision are driving a more range‑bound, selective Tokyo market. ^[5]
Medium‑term, major houses such as Nomura, Sumitomo Mitsui DS, Vanguard and Bank of America still see structural support for Japanese equities, even if near‑term upside looks more limited after a powerful multi‑year rally. ^[6]

How Tokyo’s stock market traded today: Nikkei 225 vs. Topix

On Monday, the Nikkei 225 inched higher to about 50,581.94, gaining roughly 0.2% compared with Friday’s close. The Topix broad market index did better, rising around 0.7% to approximately 3,384.31, reflecting stronger breadth across sectors beyond the handful of mega‑caps that dominate the Nikkei. ^[7]

Market breadth was healthy: Reuters reported that 177 of the Nikkei’s 225 constituents rose while 48 declined, underscoring that today’s gains were relatively broad‑based despite notable drags from a few large tech names. ^[8]

Data from Investing.com showed that, across the full Tokyo Stock Exchange, advancing stocks outnumbered decliners by roughly 2:1, and the Nikkei volatility index edged a little higher to the low‑20s, signalling that investors remain cautious but not panicked. ^[9]

Biggest winners and losers

According to Investing.com, some of the most notable gainers in today’s Tokyo session included: ^[10]

Fujikura Ltd. – surged nearly 7%
Mitsubishi Estate – jumped about 5.5% and hit its highest level in roughly five years
Japan Steel Works – climbed almost 4.7%

On the downside, the session’s laggards included:

Aeon Co. – fell nearly 7%
SoftBank Group – slid around 3.3%
Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) – dropped about 2.7% ^[11]

Real estate names like Mitsubishi Estate were also singled out by Reuters as leaders within the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s 33 industry groups, with the real estate sector up about 3.2%, while banking slipped roughly 0.6% after a strong run. ^[12]

Still near record territory

The Nikkei remains close to record highs despite recent volatility. Official Nikkei data show the index reached an all‑time high of about 52,636.87 in early November, meaning it now trades only around 4% below its peak. ^[13]

Google Finance data also indicate that over the last 52 weeks, the Nikkei’s range has been roughly 30,793 to 52,637, putting today’s level more than 60% above the 52‑week low. ^[14]

For local investors, Topix arguably tells an even more important story. Bloomberg data show Topix has delivered about 26–27% over the past year and more than 20% year‑to‑date, underlining how broad Japanese equity gains have been. ^[15]

Macro backdrop: GDP shock, tariffs and trade data

Today’s session unfolded just after a significant negative surprise on Japan’s growth data.

Q3 2025 GDP revised lower

Revised figures from Japan’s Cabinet Office showed that real GDP in Q3 2025 contracted at an annualised 2.3% rather than the previously reported 1.8%, the sharpest decline since late 2023. On a quarter‑on‑quarter basis, that equates to a 0.6% drop, compared with an earlier estimate of ‑0.4%. ^[16]

Key details from Reuters and AP reporting include: ^[17]

Exports fell about 1.2% quarter‑on‑quarter, pressured in part by U.S. tariffs on Japanese goods, especially autos.
Capital expenditure was revised from a 1.0% rise to a 0.2% decline, signalling weaker corporate investment.
Private consumption was nudged up to around +0.2%, suggesting households are holding up a bit better than first thought.
Both external demand (exports minus imports) and domestic demand made negative contributions to growth.

The tariffs component matters for the stock market: the U.S. has implemented a baseline 15% tariff on most Japanese imports, after initially signalling even higher rates (up to roughly 25%–27.5% on some goods). ^[18]

Trade surplus narrowing

Separate data highlighted by FX broker commentary show that Japan’s balance of payments trade surplus shrank from about ¥4.35 trillion to ¥2.83 trillion in October. That narrowing surplus suggests a less comfortable external cushion just as exports struggle and energy imports remain sensitive to currency moves. ^[19]

Regional mood: cautious ahead of the Fed

AP reporting notes that Asian shares were mixed on Monday as investors across the region waited for this week’s Federal Reserve interest‑rate decision and digested Japan’s weaker GDP figures. ^[20]

For Tokyo, this global caution combined with domestic shocks helped keep the Nikkei’s advance modest even as internal breadth looked healthy.

BoJ rate‑hike expectations and yen dynamics

Despite the GDP disappointment, most economists and market strategists still expect the Bank of Japan to push ahead with a rate hike at its 18–19 December meeting.

Bond yields tell the story

IG’s latest Market Navigator notes that: ^[21]

The 2‑year Japanese government bond yield has climbed above 1% for the first time since 2008,
The 10‑year JGB yield has risen to around 1.84%, now higher than China’s 10‑year yield, and
The yen has strengthened, with USD/JPY recently trading near 155.3 after breaking below an upward channel.

Those moves are consistent with markets pricing in a high probability (around three‑quarters) of a December BoJ hike, as described in the same IG analysis. ^[22]

A separate FX outlook from Forex.com also highlighted the yen’s recent “assertive” rally, driven by rising Japanese yields and expectations of policy normalisation. ^[23]

Vanguard: a “cautious pause” toward normalisation

In a November outlook, Vanguard’s Japan economist argued that Japan’s economy remains relatively resilient thanks to solid domestic demand and a “virtuous cycle” between wages and prices. Structural labour shortages are pushing wages higher, keeping underlying inflation pressures alive. ^[24]

Vanguard’s base case is a BoJ rate hike in December 2025, but the note stresses that if micro‑level wage data fail to show enough momentum, the next move could slip into 2026 instead. ^[25]

GDP shock unlikely to derail BoJ

Reuters’ GDP revision coverage emphasises that most economists see the Q3 slump as temporary. They still expect the BoJ to raise rates this month, pointing to strong expectations for 2026 spring wage talks as a key reason why the path toward policy normalisation is unlikely to change. ^[26]

For equities, this creates a delicate balance:

A more stable yen is a relief for many importers and domestic‑demand stocks.
But higher domestic yields and the end of ultra‑easy money can compress valuations, especially for long‑duration growth and high‑multiple tech names.

Sector stories: property rebound, AI anxiety and volatility pockets

Property up, banks cool down

After being hit during last week’s surge in bond yields, real estate stocks bounced strongly today. Reuters reports that real estate was among the best‑performing sectors, climbing about 3.2%, while banks fell roughly 0.6% as investors took profits after a powerful run. ^[27]

This rotation—into property, out of banks—fits a market that is trying to digest a new rate environment rather than simply selling all rate‑sensitive names at once.

SoftBank and AI jitters

The biggest single drag on the Nikkei was SoftBank Group, which fell around 3.3% and alone knocked roughly 124 points off the index. ^[28]

Reuters notes several factors behind the move: ^[29]

SoftBank remains heavily associated with AI and high‑growth tech valuations, which have been under pressure after an AI‑driven rally pushed many names to lofty levels.
Weekend media reports about competition in advanced AI models added to investor nerves around the sector.
Strategists at Nomura and Sumitomo Mitsui DS highlighted a “sense of overheating” in high‑tech shares and suggested that the underlying trend for these names is still one of correction, with the Nikkei “feeling heavy” near recent peaks.

In other words, AI‑linked winners of the past year are now proving more sensitive to any hint of disappointment—whether in fundamentals, regulation or competition.

Top performers and laggards beyond SoftBank

Alongside SoftBank, Aeon and TEPCO were among the session’s notable decliners, while Fujikura, Mitsubishi Estateand Japan Steel Works helped lift the market. ^[30]

The combination of a property rebound, persistent selling in some AI‑rich names and a modest pullback in banks is consistent with a market that is rotating beneath the surface rather than shifting into outright risk‑off mode.

Exchange notices: daily limit changes and delisting

Two Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) announcements are also on traders’ radar:

On 5 December, TSE said it would broaden the daily price limit for Nippon Shinyaku (4516) from 8 December, after the stock hit its upper limit with essentially zero volume for two consecutive sessions. The upper limit was widened to allow for larger price moves, with TSE warning that market orders could be executed at unexpected prices under the broadened band. ^[31]
Today, TSE announced the delisting of Tokyo Individualized Educational Institute (4745), designating the shares as “securities to be delisted” between 8 December 2025 and 7 January 2026, with final delisting slated for 8 January 2026 after approval of a reverse stock split that effectively squeezes out minority shareholders. ^[32]

While neither stock is large enough to move the indices, these notices are reminders that micro‑level corporate actions and governance remain an important theme in Japan’s markets.

Flows and structure: why foreign investors still care about Tokyo

Beyond today’s ticks, many global investors are watching structural changes that could keep Japan high on the radar even if short‑term returns cool.

NISA and the rise of domestic retail investors

A recent Bank of America piece on Japan’s equity market highlights how the revamped NISA (Nippon Individual Savings Account) is transforming household behaviour. In just the first half of 2024, at least ¥7.5 trillion flowed into NISA accounts—almost four times the amount in the same period a year earlier. ^[33]

Younger Japanese investors in their 20s, 30s and 40s—less scarred by the 1980s bubble—are increasingly comfortable allocating savings to equities rather than cash, providing a new domestic bid under the market. ^[34]

Corporate reform and governance

The same BofA and JPX‑related commentary stresses that the combination of: ^[35]

Ongoing corporate governance reforms,
Pressure on companies to lift capital efficiency and shareholder returns, and
An improved environment for share buybacks and dividends

has helped drive Japan’s equity re‑rating over the last two years. Many strategists argue this is not just a cyclical story but a secular shift in how Japanese corporations are run and how they return cash to investors.

Strategists’ forecasts for Japan’s stock market (2025–2026)

Earlier index targets already look conservative

Back in August, Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management raised its year‑end 2025 Nikkei 225 target from 40,200 to 41,900, and its March 2026 target to 42,300, based on earnings and valuation assumptions that now look modest given the index’s move above 50,000. ^[36]

The fact that the Nikkei is trading well above those earlier targets underlines how quickly sentiment and earnings expectations have shifted.

Nomura’s fresh earnings outlook

On 4 December 2025, Nomura published a detailed outlook aggregating forecasts for companies in the Russell/Nomura Large Cap Index. Key points include: ^[37]

For FY2025, analysts now expect sales growth of about 0.8% and recurring profit growth of roughly 3.4%.
For FY2026, recurring profits are projected to rise by around 10%, with manufacturing sectors seeing mid‑teens profit growth after a dip in FY2025.
Non‑manufacturing profits are forecast to grow more moderately, reflecting tighter domestic conditions but still‑resilient demand.

Taken together, this implies a soft patch in FY2025 followed by a healthier earnings recovery in FY2026, consistent with the idea that today’s GDP slump is a setback rather than the start of a prolonged downturn.

Vanguard’s macro lens

Vanguard’s November note frames Japan as being in a “cautious pause”: ^[38]

Domestic demand is described as resilient,
Core inflation is expected to remain above the BoJ’s 2% target thanks to structural labour shortages and steady wage gains, and
The next phase of rate hikes is seen as gradual, with a focus on ensuring wage growth is strong and persistent enough to sustain real household income.

For equities, that mix supports a moderately positive medium‑term view but does not preclude bouts of volatility—especially in sectors driven by global tech and AI narratives.

What today’s Tokyo session means for investors

For investors following the Tokyo stock market today, several themes stand out:

Sideways bias near highs
With the Nikkei only about 4% below record levels and Topix showing strong 12‑month and year‑to‑date gains, strategists increasingly talk about a sideways consolidation rather than a sustained melt‑up from here. ^[39]
Stock‑picking over index chasing
The diverging fortunes of SoftBank, property developers, banks and industrial names suggest that sector rotation and stock selection are becoming more important than simple index exposure, particularly as the BoJ’s path away from negative rates reshapes relative winners and losers. ^[40]
Macro risk remains elevated
The combination of weaker GDP, tariff‑related export headwinds, a narrowing trade surplus and looming Fed and BoJ decisions keeps macro risk high, even as structural reforms and domestic flows continue to support the market. ^[41]
Medium‑term story still intact
From Nomura’s earnings projections to BofA and Vanguard’s broader outlooks, the consensus remains that Japanese equities can still deliver over the next few years, driven by governance reforms, improved capital allocation and a more engaged domestic investor base—even if the pace slows after the explosive gains of 2024–2025. ^[42]

As always, any exposure to Japan involves both opportunity and risk: currency swings, policy surprises from the BoJ, global trade tensions and shifting AI sentiment can all move Tokyo’s indices quickly. For now, though, the message from today’s session is that Tokyo remains on the front foot—but with a noticeably heavier stride near the top of a long rally.