Canada Stock Market Today, December 8, 2025: TSX Futures Flat as Investors Brace for Bank of Canada and Fed Rate Decisions

Canada’s stock market heads into a pivotal week on Monday, December 8, 2025, with futures on the S&P/TSX Composite Index essentially unchanged and traders squarely focused on back‑to‑back interest rate decisions from the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve. ^[1]

Stronger‑than‑expected Canadian jobs data, record‑high levels for the TSX, and firmer commodity prices have created a cautiously optimistic backdrop — but with central banks poised to set the tone for 2026, the mood before the open is one of “wait and see” rather than outright risk‑on. ^[2]

Below is what investors need to know before the Canada stock market opens today.

TSX Futures: Cautious Start After a Pullback From Record Highs

Futures on Canada’s main stock index were flat early Monday (around 5:49 a.m. ET), pointing to a muted open after a volatile few sessions. ^[3]

Where the TSX closed on Friday

The S&P/TSX Composite Index finished Friday down 0.5% at 31,311.41, retreating from a record closing high the previous day.
For the week, the benchmark slipped 0.2%, as profit‑taking in materials and tech offset strong bank earnings and upbeat labour data. ^[4]

Despite last week’s modest pullback, the TSX remains near all‑time highs and is tracking one of the stronger performances among developed‑market equity indices in 2025. RBC Wealth Management estimates that the S&P/TSX Composite is on pace for one of the best annual returns in the developed world, helped by record gold prices and a robust financials sector. ^[5]

That backdrop matters: when valuations are elevated and sentiment broadly positive, central‑bank surprises can hit harder — in both directions.

Central-Bank Double‑Header: BoC Likely on Hold, Fed Poised to Cut

This week’s key narrative for Canadian markets is clear: a synchronized policy moment with Ottawa and Washington both in the spotlight on Wednesday.

Bank of Canada: Expected to Hold at 2.25%

The Bank of Canada announces its final interest‑rate decision of the year on Wednesday, December 10, at 9:45 a.m. ET. ^[6]

Market expectations are remarkably aligned:

A Reuters poll of economists and interest‑rate traders shows 100% of surveyed economists and about 97% of traders expect the BoC to leave its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%, a three‑year low after 275 basis points of cuts since 2023–24. ^[7]
RBC Economics likewise expects the BoC to hold steady at this meeting and keep rates at 2.25% through 2026, barring a sharp deterioration in growth or employment. ^[8]

The latest Canadian data largely backs that view. GDP in Q3 grew at an annualized 2.6%, far above the central bank’s previous forecast, and the labour market has firmed noticeably in the fall. ^[9]

Why this matters for the TSX

A “steady and done” BoC is typically supportive for rate‑sensitive sectors such as banks, utilities and REITs, which dominate the TSX.
At the same time, a prolonged pause could steepen the yield curve further, a backdrop that RBC argues favours adding some duration in government bonds while being more selective on corporate credit. ^[10]

Markets will listen closely to Governor Tiff Macklem’s tone: any hint that rate hikes could come earlier than 2027, or that inflation risks are rising again, could unsettle equity valuations.

Federal Reserve: “Hawkish Cut” Priced In

South of the border, the Fed’s two‑day meeting (December 9–10) is widely expected to deliver a quarter‑point rate cut, taking the federal funds target range down from 3.75–4.0%.

Futures markets imply roughly an 86–89% probability of a 25‑basis‑point cut this week. ^[11]
Economists surveyed by Reuters and other outlets highlight an unusually divided FOMC, with the potential for multiple dissenting votes — which would put a premium on Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance for 2026. ^[12]

Fed policy is critical for Canadian equities because it drives:

Global risk appetite and flows into equities versus bonds
U.S. dollar direction, which influences commodity prices and the Canadian dollar
Relative monetary-policy stance between the BoC and the Fed, affecting financials and exporters

A “hawkish cut” — lowering rates but signalling a slower path of easing — would likely keep bond yields elevated and support financials, while capping some of the enthusiasm around high‑growth tech and speculative names.

Canadian Macro Backdrop: Jobs Boom vs. Services Slowdown

Labour market: three months of surprisingly strong gains

Friday’s labour‑force data was a key driver of sentiment heading into this week:

Canada added about 53,600–54,000 jobs in November, marking the third consecutive month of solid gains. ^[13]
The national unemployment rate fell from 6.9% to 6.5%, its lowest level in 16 months, despite expectations for job losses and a rise in joblessness. ^[14]
Employment growth has been concentrated in sectors like health care, social assistance, accommodation and food services, and natural resources, with notable regional strength in Alberta, New Brunswick and Manitoba. ^[15]

The upside surprise pushed the Canadian dollar to a 10‑week high on Friday, with the loonie briefly trading around C$1.385 per U.S. dollar (≈72 U.S. cents), its biggest one‑day gain since May. ^[16]

For equity investors, the takeaway is that recession fears have eased, but a stronger labour market also gives the BoC cover to stay on hold and talk tough on inflation — a classic “good news is good, but not too good” scenario.

Services and manufacturing: still under pressure

Not all the recent data have been upbeat:

The Canada Services PMI fell to 44.3 in November, its lowest level in five months, signalling contraction in the services sector as new business and employment softened. ^[17]
Earlier PMI readings and commentary have highlighted ongoing pressure in manufacturing and trade‑exposed industries, reflecting the drag from U.S. tariffs and global demand uncertainty. ^[18]

This split—strong headline jobs but weak PMIs—helps explain why markets think the BoC is finished cutting but in no rush to tighten. For the TSX, it underscores the importance of domestically oriented banks and resource exportersover more cyclical, trade‑sensitive sectors.

Overnight Markets and Commodities: Fed Hopes Keep Risk Appetite Intact

Global markets were relatively calm overnight, with a slight bias toward risk‑taking:

Global stocks were broadly flat, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures traded about 0.1–0.2% higher ahead of the Fed meeting. ^[19]
Asian trading was mixed but supported by better‑than‑expected Chinese export data, while European indices opened marginally lower. ^[20]

Oil: stable near the low‑60s, watching Ukraine and Russia

For Canada’s energy‑heavy market, oil remains a central story:

Brent crude is trading around US$63–64 a barrel, while WTI hovers near US$60, with prices easing slightly this morning after several days of gains. ^[21]
Traders are juggling expectations for a Fed rate cut, which would support global growth and energy demand, with headlines about Ukraine‑Russia war talks and infrastructure strikes that could affect supply. ^[22]

Reuters notes that energy stocks could be in focus at the TSX open given oil’s resilience near two‑week highs. ^[23]

Gold and metals: near records, key for materials

Precious and base metals are another crucial driver for the TSX:

Spot gold is trading around US$4,200 per ounce, not far from record highs, as expectations for a Fed cut weigh on the U.S. dollar and support safe‑haven demand. ^[24]
Silver and copper are also elevated, with copper in particular benefiting from supply concerns and strong demand linked to AI‑related infrastructure, according to Reuters’ global markets coverage. ^[25]

High gold and copper prices have been a core pillar of TSX outperformance this year. RBC’s 2026 outlook attributes much of the index’s strong 2025 return to the materials and financials sectors, which together account for the bulk of the market’s gains. ^[26]

Sector Themes and Stocks to Watch on the TSX Today

1. Financials: Banks riding strong earnings into a policy‑heavy week

Canada’s big banks are front and centre after a powerful earnings season:

TD Bank, Bank of Montreal and CIBC all beat quarterly profit estimates, helped by strong capital‑markets activity and fee‑based businesses. ^[27]
Earlier in the week, RBC, National Bank and Scotiabank also posted solid results, with RBC even raising its dividend and hitting a fresh high as the TSX pushed to a record. ^[28]

With the BoC expected to hold rates at 2.25%, investors will be watching:

Net interest margin commentary in light of a flatter path for short‑term rates
Loan‑loss provisions and credit quality, especially in housing and consumer credit
Capital deployment — buybacks, dividends and investments — given resilient profitability

A dovish Fed combined with a steady BoC could provide a benign backdrop for the group, but any sign that rate cuts might reverse sooner than expected could change that calculus.

2. Energy: Oil near recent highs puts focus back on producers

With Brent and WTI trading in the low‑60s and geopolitical risks still simmering, Canadian energy names — from integrated majors to mid‑cap producers and pipelines — are poised to be active:

Reuters flags energy as a sector to watch at the TSX open given the combination of stable oil prices and rising rate‑cut expectations. ^[29]
For Canadian producers, the key issues remain capital discipline, free‑cash‑flow returns, and pipeline differentials, all of which have been in focus throughout 2025.

Investors may also look toward natural resources employment growth in the latest jobs report as a sign of renewed investment in the sector. ^[30]

3. Materials and miners: Gold near highs, Teck–Anglo deal drama

The materials group — which includes gold miners, base‑metal producers and fertilizer names — has been one of the biggest contributors to TSX returns this year, but it was also a drag late last week when the sector fell around 1.1%. ^[31]

Today, two stories stand out:

Precious‑metal miners
- With gold still above US$4,200/oz, gold producers and royalty companies remain leveraged to any upside surprise from the Fed’s communication or further weakness in the dollar. ^[32]
Teck Resources and Anglo American
- Anglo American has withdrawn a contentious proposal to boost executive bonus vesting tied to its planned US$50 billion merger with Teck Resources after shareholders objected. ^[33]
- Teck shareholders are due to vote on the merger on Tuesday, December 9, at a special meeting in Vancouver, keeping the stock squarely in focus for event‑driven investors. ^[34]

The bonus withdrawal may ease some governance concerns, but the deal still faces scrutiny over valuation, integration risk and political sensitivities around Canada’s resource base.

4. Technology and growth: Shopify remains a swing factor

Tech has been a meaningful, if smaller, contributor to the TSX’s gains this year, amplified by global enthusiasm for AI and cloud spending. ^[35]

However, recent action has been bumpier:

The TSX technology group slipped last week, with Shopify shares down about 1.7% on Friday amid a wave of analyst re‑ratings, including a downgrade from Royal Bank of Canada from “outperform” to “sector perform.” ^[36]

Tech names will remain sensitive this week to:

U.S. yields and Fed messaging
Upcoming U.S. earnings from heavyweights like Oracle and Broadcom, which have become global bellwethers for AI and cloud infrastructure spending. ^[37]

A supportive Fed tone could keep the global “AI trade” alive into year‑end, which in turn would help Canadian software, e‑commerce and semiconductor‑adjacent names.

5. Small caps and TSX‑V: Ongoing capital formation in resources

At the smaller end of the market, resource explorers and developers continue to raise capital, as highlighted by a flow‑through financing of about C$5.2 million announced this morning by a TSX‑V‑listed issuer. ^[38]

While such financings don’t move the main TSX index, they are a useful gauge of risk appetite in early‑stage mining and energy plays, which often rally when metals prices are strong and investors are comfortable taking on more risk.

Medium‑Term Perspective: TSX Valuations and 2026 Outlook

Beyond today’s open, investors are increasingly looking at where Canada fits in a 2026 global portfolio.

RBC’s Global Insight 2026 Outlook: Canada highlights several important points: ^[39]

The S&P/TSX Composite has delivered a mid‑20% total return year‑to‑date, helped by gold, financials and energy.
The index trades at roughly 15.9× forward earnings, a modest premium to its long‑term average (14.7×) but still discounted relative to the S&P 500’s ~21×.
High government spending and a steeper yield curve are reshaping the opportunity set in Canadian fixed income, with government bonds looking more attractive than tight corporate credit.

For equity markets, that combination suggests:

Less room for multiple expansion from here, making earnings delivery and sector selection more important.
Ongoing leadership from banks and resource names, provided the global cycle doesn’t turn sharply lower.

What to Watch Today and This Week

Today – Monday, December 8

No major Canadian data releases before the open.
Attention will focus on TSX price action around recent highs, sector rotation between banks, materials and tech, and any early moves in Teck Resources and Anglo‑linked names.

Wednesday, December 10

9:45 a.m. ET – Bank of Canada rate announcement (expected hold at 2.25%). ^[40]
Afternoon – Federal Reserve decision and Powell press conference, with markets pricing a 25‑bp cut and keen to parse the “dot plot” and guidance for 2026. ^[41]

Tuesday, December 9

Teck Resources shareholder meeting on the Anglo American merger, an important catalyst for Canadian mining and M&A sentiment. ^[42]

Bottom Line for Canada’s Stock Market Today

Heading into the December 8 open, Canada’s stock market is balanced on a knife‑edge of optimism and caution:

Optimism stems from stronger‑than‑expected jobs data, near‑record TSX levels, and firm commodity prices, particularly in gold and copper. ^[43]
Caution reflects the risk that this week’s BoC and Fed meetings deliver a more hawkish‑than‑hoped message, potentially pressuring valuations and rate‑sensitive sectors.

With TSX futures flat, the day’s opening moves are likely to be stock‑ and sector‑driven, especially in:

Banks, as investors position for the BoC
Energy and miners, trading off oil, gold and copper
Teck Resources and related mining names, reacting to the Anglo bonus reversal and Tuesday’s vote
Shopify and other growth stocks, which will shadow U.S. yields and tech sentiment

For now, the path of least resistance remains sideways to slightly higher, but the real story for the TSX this week will be written on central‑bank day.

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