Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR) — the Bitcoin‑heavy “Strategy Inc stock” many traders treat as a leveraged BTC proxy — is set for a lively session on Monday, December 8, 2025, after the company disclosed a fresh 10,624‑bitcoin purchase and updated investors on its aggressive capital‑raising plans.
As of the U.S. pre‑market, MSTR is trading in the low‑$180s, about 2% above Friday’s close of $178.99, when the stock slid 3.77%. [1]
At the same time, Bitcoin is hovering around the low‑$90,000s, up roughly 1–3% over the past 24 hours, helped by renewed optimism that the Federal Reserve is edging closer to rate cuts — a macro backdrop that tends to support risk assets like BTC and, by extension, Strategy Inc stock. [2]
Key Things to Know About Strategy Inc Stock Before the Bell (Dec 8, 2025)
- Pre‑market move: MSTR is changing hands around $182–184, roughly +1.5–2.5% vs. Friday’s close, on solid pre‑market volume. [3]
- New Bitcoin buy: Strategy has bought 10,624 BTC for about $962.7M between Dec 1–7 at an average price of $90,615 per bitcoin, funded largely by new stock issuance. [4]
- Massive BTC stash: As of Dec 7, Strategy now holds 660,624 BTC, acquired at a total cost basis of ~$49.35B or about $74,700 per coin. [5]
- Valuation gap vs. Bitcoin: At current BTC prices in the low‑$90Ks, that hoard is worth roughly $60B+, compared with a market cap around $52–53B for Strategy Inc stock — leaving a relatively modest premium (or even discount, depending on methodology) versus its net Bitcoin position. [6]
- USD reserve and guidance: On Dec 1, the company created a $1.44B U.S. dollar reserve to cover dividends and interest and slashed its 2025 earnings guidance, now forecasting anything from a $5.5B loss to a $6.3B profit depending almost entirely on the year‑end bitcoin price. [7]
- Wall Street’s split view: The average analyst price target is about $508, implying ~184% upside from $178.99, yet some major firms have slashed their targets as low as $229, and others now sit around $450. [8]
- Volatility backdrop: Strategy Inc stock is down roughly 47% over the last 3 months and 54% over the past year, even after a three‑year run that delivered more than 800% total shareholder return. [9]
Below is a deeper dive into the news, forecasts and analysis hitting on December 8, 2025 and how they could shape MSTR’s trading session today.
1. Pre‑Market Snapshot: Strategy Inc Stock in the Low‑$180s
Friday’s close (Dec 5, 2025)
- Close: $178.99
- Daily move: ‑3.77%
- Intraday range: $176.30 – $185.39
- Volume: ~20.7M shares, well above recent averages. [10]
Pre‑market (Dec 8, 2025, before U.S. open)
Multiple data providers show Strategy Inc stock trading higher ahead of the bell:
- Yahoo Finance: $182.42 (+1.92%) at ~8:50 a.m. EST. [11]
- StockAnalysis: $182.16 (+1.77%) at ~8:54 a.m. EST. [12]
- MarketWatch: $183.29 (+2.40%) in early pre‑market trading, with tens of thousands of shares changing hands before the open. [13]
The picture is consistent: after a rough week, Strategy Inc stock is trying to bounce, tracking an overnight rebound in Bitcoin prices.
Trend check
- 3‑month return: about ‑47%
- 1‑year return: roughly ‑54%
- Last 12 months’ peak: around $543 on Nov 21, 2024 — MSTR now trades about 60% below that high. [14]
This backdrop of steep recent losses but enormous multi‑year gains (a 3‑year total shareholder return over 800%) is a big part of why analysts and investors are so divided about what comes next. [15]
2. Bitcoin’s Rebound and Why It Matters So Much for MSTR
Strategy Inc is now explicitly positioned as a “Bitcoin Treasury Company”, with Bitcoin designated as its primary treasury reserve asset. [16]
On Dec 1 the firm said it held 650,000 BTC, about 3.1% of the total 21 million that will ever exist. [17]
After the latest purchase announced today, that total has climbed to 660,624 BTC. [18]
Bitcoin price today
- Sites such as CoinGecko, YCharts and major crypto news outlets peg Bitcoin around $90,000–92,000 on Dec 8, up roughly 1–3% in the last 24 hours after briefly dipping below $90,000 earlier this month. [19]
- Economic Times and other macro coverage link the latest leg higher to growing expectations of Fed rate cuts and easier monetary policy in 2026. [20]
Given Strategy’s BTC balance, every $1,000 move in Bitcoin now swings the mark‑to‑market value of its hoard by roughly $660 million. That’s why recent volatility — Bitcoin dropping below $90k in late November, then rebounding — has been mirrored, often more violently, in Strategy Inc stock.
Recent analysis on Seeking Alpha and StockAnalysis notes that Strategy’s market‑adjusted net asset value (mNAV) — a measure comparing the value of the company to its Bitcoin holdings — has compressed from above 2.0x down toward ~1.1–1.2x as BTC fell around 24% from its 52‑week high. [21]
In parallel, data from BitcoinTreasuries shows that as of Dec 8, Strategy’s BTC cost basis is around $74,702 per coin, versus spot prices in the low‑$90Ks — so the company is still sitting on substantial unrealized gains, but with far less margin for error than when BTC traded near previous highs. [22]
3. New Disclosure: 10,624 BTC Purchase and Fresh Equity Issuance
The biggest company‑specific news hitting wires this morning is Strategy’s new Bitcoin purchase and ATM update, detailed in an SEC filing and summarized across several outlets. [23]
What Strategy announced on Dec 8, 2025
According to Investing.com and related coverage:
- Bitcoins acquired:10,624 BTC
- Period: Between Dec 1 and Dec 7, 2025
- Total cost:~$962.7 million
- Average purchase price:$90,615 per BTC (including fees) [24]
- BTC holdings after the purchase:660,624 BTC
- Aggregate cost basis:$49.35 billion
- Average cost per BTC:~$74,696–74,702 [25]
To fund this buy:
- Strategy sold about 5.13 million shares of MSTR common stock, raising net proceeds of roughly $928.1 million. [26]
- Separate reporting from TipRanks also highlights the sale of 442,536 shares of STRD preferred stock as part of its broader ATM program. [27]
Coindesk notes that this marks Strategy’s return to “big‑ticket” Bitcoin purchases after months of smaller incremental buys, underscoring management’s commitment to leaning into BTC even after a sharp crypto drawdown. [28]
What this means going into today’s session
- Leverage to BTC has increased: More coins on the balance sheet means even tighter coupling between MSTR and Bitcoin intraday moves.
- Shareholder dilution continues: Common and preferred stock issuance under the ATM programs remains a central part of the business model.
- Capital‑markets dependence is in focus: Several recent analyses warn that Strategy’s reliance on issuing equity and preferreds to buy more BTC leaves it exposed if markets shut down or investors demand much higher yields. [29]
Expect today’s opening tape to reflect how comfortable (or uncomfortable) traders are with this latest mix of bigger BTC stack + more dilution.
4. The New $1.44B USD Reserve and Sharply Cut 2025 Guidance
Earlier this month, Strategy released a major strategic update that continues to shape today’s trading narrative. [30]
The USD reserve
In a Dec 1 press release and a same‑day Reuters story, the company announced:
- Creation of a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve (“USD Reserve”).
- Purpose: to fund dividends on preferred stock and interest on outstanding debt.
- Funding source: proceeds from at‑the‑market (ATM) sales of class A common stock.
- Current coverage: Strategy says the reserve currently covers about 21 months of dividend and interest obligations, with a goal of extending this to 24+ months over time. [31]
Barron’s adds that annual obligations on Strategy’s preferred shares exceed $700 million, with individual preferred tickers like STRC, STRD, STRF and STRK yielding roughly 9–13% — yields more typical of “junk” credit than blue‑chip equity. [32]
The USD reserve is meant to reassure investors that Strategy can keep paying these high coupons without having to sell Bitcoin, even through a deep crypto slump.
Updated 2025 earnings and Bitcoin assumptions
The same announcement and Reuters report also laid out dramatically widened 2025 guidance ranges, entirely tied to where Bitcoin ends the year: [33]
- Previous assumption: BTC at $150,000 on Dec 31, 2025.
- New BTC range: $85,000 – $110,000 at year‑end.
- Resulting FY 2025 guidance ranges:
- Operating income: from ‑$7.0B to +$9.5B
- Net income: from ‑$5.5B to +$6.3B
- Diluted EPS: from ‑$17.00 to +$19.00 per share
In plain English: if Bitcoin is strong, earnings can be enormous; if Bitcoin falls, earnings can be deeply negative.
This is precisely why Strategy keeps stressing that its results are “extremely sensitive to and directly correlated with changes in the market price of bitcoin.” [34]
5. Fresh Analysis and Forecasts Published on December 8, 2025
A cluster of new research pieces and forecasts dated today will also be on traders’ dashboards ahead of the open.
5.1 Investors.com / IBD: “Wall Street’s Favorite (and Biggest Mistake?)”
A widely circulated piece from Investor’s Business Daily, picked up by RealClearMarkets, describes Strategy Inc stock as “Wall Street’s favorite stock — and biggest error” and highlights: [35]
- Average analyst price target: about $508.43, implying roughly 184% upside from $178.99.
- That makes MSTR the top large‑cap stock by implied analyst upside in their dataset.
- But this comes after a 61% drop from its 52‑week high, and the piece questions whether analyst models have adequately incorporated risks from leverage, high funding costs and Bitcoin volatility.
- The article notes that Strategy’s mNAV multiple (enterprise value versus reserve assets) has dropped from above 2.0x to around 1.15x, reflecting a market less willing to pay a large premium over net Bitcoin holdings.
The tone is cautiously skeptical: the upside case is huge, but it depends on very bullish BTC scenarios (some price targets assume Bitcoin at $200k–$225k by 2026) and continued access to cheap capital.
5.2 Technical forecast: CoinCodex model
Crypto/stock analytics site CoinCodex published an updated model today projecting that MSTR could rise about 59% to ~$285 by early January 2026, based on its technical indicators. [36]
However:
- The same model currently labels sentiment “Bearish”.
- The Fear & Greed Index sits at 39 (“Fear”), underscoring nervousness despite the bullish price projection.
This forecast is purely quantitative and does not account for fundamental changes like today’s new BTC purchase.
5.3 Simply Wall St: 73% “Undervalued,” but with Big Caveats
Simply Wall St’s new December 8 article asks whether the recent slide has created a valuation opportunity in Strategy Inc stock. [37]
Key points:
- They estimate a “fair value” of $663 per share, versus the last close at $178.99 — a 73% undervaluation, in their model.
- They highlight a three‑year total shareholder return above 800%, but note that 30‑day and year‑to‑date losses are now substantial as investors reassess leverage and valuation risk.
- Their narrative explicitly flags two core risks:
- Concentrated exposure to Bitcoin, and
- Reliance on aggressive capital‑markets access (ongoing stock and preferred offerings) to fund new BTC purchases.
In short: the model sees big upside for long‑term Bitcoin believers, but acknowledges that a sharp downturn or liquidity squeeze could dismantle the “undervaluation” quickly.
5.4 Other recent commentary feeding into today
Though not all dated today, several recent analyses are still shaping sentiment:
- Cantor Fitzgerald cut its 12‑month MSTR price target from $560 to $229, while surprisingly keeping an Overweight rating, reflecting belief in Bitcoin but more modest expectations for Strategy’s premium. [38]
- Bernstein cut its target from $600 to $450, citing higher funding costs and narrower premium over Bitcoin. [39]
- Motley Fool and other outlets ask bluntly, “With Bitcoin falling, is Strategy stock in trouble?”, noting the over 650,000 BTC it holds (more than 3.1% of total supply) and the risks of stacking leverage on such a volatile asset. [40]
- The Economist calls Strategy “an early victim” of the latest Bitcoin plunge, pointing out that the company now holds about 3% of the world’s total Bitcoin supply and has seen its share price punished as BTC retreated. [41]
- The Financial Times highlights how Strategy’s stock slide has left “bitcoin’s biggest booster” with “dwindling options” to keep raising capital on favorable terms. [42]
Together, these pieces paint a picture of a company that is central to the Bitcoin ecosystem but walking a tightrope between huge upside and material financial risk.
6. How the Market Is Valuing Strategy vs. Its Bitcoin Today
With Strategy’s BTC holdings now at 660,624 coins and a cost basis just under $49.4B, the comparison between enterprise value and Bitcoin stash is front and center. [43]
Using rough, rounded figures:
- BTC holdings (mark‑to‑market):
- 660,624 BTC × ~$91k ≈ $60–61B (this will move minute‑by‑minute with BTC). [44]
- Strategy Inc stock market cap: around $51–53B, depending on which pre‑market price you use. [45]
Different data providers compute mNAV (various flavors of “market cap divided by BTC reserve value”) slightly differently:
- Seeking Alpha / StockAnalysis highlight an mNAV around 1.16x recently, down from more than 2.0x when enthusiasm was higher and BTC nearer its highs. [46]
- BitcoinTreasuries shows measures where Strategy sometimes trades near parity or even a discount to the value of its BTC holdings on a basic market‑cap basis (mNAV basic around 0.85 in certain snapshots), once you incorporate full dilution. [47]
For today’s pre‑market, the practical takeaway is:
Strategy Inc stock now trades at a far smaller premium to its “Bitcoin per share” than during past crypto peaks.
That’s positive if you think Bitcoin is headed much higher and the BTC hoard will eventually justify a premium — and worrying if you think the company’s high‑cost funding and leverage deserve a structural discount, especially versus simpler vehicles like spot BTC ETFs. [48]
7. Bull vs. Bear Case Heading Into Today’s Session
Bull case talking points
Supporters of Strategy Inc stock will focus on:
- Huge BTC exposure with upside: 660k+ BTC gives massive convexity if Bitcoin breaks decisively higher from current levels. [49]
- USD reserve reduces forced‑seller risk: The $1.44B USD reserve, currently covering roughly 21 months of dividends and interest, is meant to ensure Strategy doesn’t have to dump Bitcoin to meet near‑term obligations. [50]
- Analyst upside remains enormous: An average price target around $508 — with some models and narratives pointing to “fair values” north of $600–700 — suggests Wall Street still sees large long‑term upside if BTC does its part and Strategy executes on capital raising. [51]
- Software and AI business optionality: While overshadowed by the BTC narrative, Strategy still operates an AI‑driven analytics software business, which the company argues complements its long‑term “digital capital + AI intelligence” strategy. [52]
Bear case talking points
Skeptics will point to:
- High leverage and expensive funding: Preferred yields near 9–13% and large interest/dividend outflows (estimated at $700M+ per year) leave little room for error if BTC stalls or falls. [53]
- Ongoing dilution: The latest 5.1M+ shares of common and additional preferred issuance to buy Bitcoin add to a long history of capital raises, raising questions about long‑term per‑share value. [54]
- Dependence on still‑volatile Bitcoin: Even after today’s bounce, BTC recently saw one of its steepest monthly declines since 2021, and Strategy’s updated guidance ranges show how dramatically results swing with BTC’s price. [55]
- Competition from BTC ETFs: Several analyses argue that cheap spot Bitcoin ETFs may be a cleaner way to gain BTC exposure without taking on Strategy’s complex capital structure and operating/business risk. [56]
8. What to Watch in Strategy Inc Stock Today
Going into the Dec 8, 2025 U.S. cash session, traders and longer‑term investors alike will likely watch:
- Bitcoin’s intraday path
- If BTC holds or builds on its move above $90k–92k, it could provide a tailwind to MSTR. A sharp reversal, especially back below $90k, would likely pressure the stock again. [57]
- Reaction to the 10,624 BTC purchase
- Does the market cheer the bigger BTC stack, or focus more on the dilution and leverage needed to fund it? Price action and volume around the open will be telling. [58]
- Preferred shares (STRF, STRC, STRK, STRD)
- Yields in the high single to low double digits imply that credit and income investors still see significant risk. Any big move in these tickers could signal a shift in confidence around Strategy’s balance sheet. [59]
- News flow and analyst commentary
- With IBD, Simply Wall St, CoinCodex and others dropping fresh takes today, look for upgrades/downgrades, target changes or new short‑seller or bull theses to hit during the session. [60]
- Trading dynamics: volume and volatility
- Strategy Inc stock has been one of the more volatile large‑cap names, and options markets have tended to price in big daily swings, especially on heavy BTC‑related news days.
Final Word (Not Investment Advice)
Strategy Inc stock today sits at the crossroads of macro, crypto and high‑yield credit. The pre‑market bounce, the new $962M Bitcoin purchase, and the $1.44B USD reserve all underscore management’s conviction that Bitcoin will keep rising — and that shareholders should want more of it, not less. [61]
Whether that makes MSTR a compelling opportunity or a leveraged high‑risk bet depends on:
- Your view of Bitcoin’s long‑term trajectory,
- Your tolerance for dilution and volatility, and
- How comfortable you are with a balance sheet built around perpetually buying more BTC using expensive capital. [62]
Nothing here is personal financial advice — just the key facts and debates around Strategy Inc stock (MSTR) as the market opens on December 8, 2025.
References
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