Home Depot (HD) Stock Today: Price, Earnings Miss and 2026 Outlook Ahead of Investor Day

Published: December 8, 2025 – Ticker: NYSE: HD

Home Depot, Inc. (The) (NYSE: HD) heads into its 2025 Investor & Analyst Day on December 9 with its share price under pressure, its guidance freshly cut, and Wall Street sharply focused on what management says about 2026 and the housing market.

As of early afternoon UTC on December 8, Home Depot stock is trading around $355 per share, giving the home‑improvement giant a market capitalization of roughly $353 billion. The stock changes hands at about 24x trailing earnings, with a forward P/E just below that, and offers a dividend yield of roughly 2.6% at current levels. ^[1]

Over the last year, HD has traded in a 52‑week range of $326.31 to $436.36, and is down in the mid‑teens percentage range year‑to‑date, underperforming the broader market as investors digest slower earnings growth and a stalled U.S. housing market. ^[2]

Key takeaways for Home Depot (HD) on December 8, 2025

• Stock price & valuation: HD trades near $355, about 19% below the average one‑year analyst target of ~$423, and roughly 15–20% below many peak targets set earlier this year. ^[3]
• Recent results: Q3 FY2025 revenue rose 2.8% to $41.4 billion, but adjusted EPS slipped to $3.74, missing estimates and prompting a full‑year EPS guidance cut to about a 5% decline year over year. ^[4]
• Macro headwinds: Management cites a “deep funk” in housing, fewer weather‑driven projects, “homeowner fatigue,” and softer demand for big‑ticket renovations as core pressures on sales and margins. ^[5]
• Dividend story: Home Depot declared a $2.30 quarterly dividend payable December 18, 2025, marking its 155th consecutive quarterly cash dividend, and keeping the annual payout at $9.20 per share. ^[6]
• Street stance today: Analysts broadly rate HD a “Buy” / “Moderate Buy”, with average 12‑month targets clustered around $404–$423 and a high estimate near $497. ^[7]
• Fresh catalysts:
  • Dec 9, 2025 Investor & Analyst Day in Atlanta, where management is expected to update its multi‑year outlook. ^[8]
  • A new Instacart partnership in Canada and an AI‑powered blueprint takeoff tool for professional contractors, both aimed at deepening Pro and omnichannel engagement. ^[9]
• Legal overhang: A shareholder‑rights firm has announced a fraud‑investigation review tied to the company’s explanation of its Q3 miss, adding a layer of headline risk. ^[10]

Home Depot stock today: price, multiples and basic snapshot

Real‑time data show Home Depot trading around $354–$355, up slightly on the day and modestly above its recent lows, but well under its 52‑week high above $436. ^[11]

Key snapshot metrics:

• Price: ~$354.61
• Market cap: ~$353 billion
• Trailing EPS (ttm): ~$14.66
• Trailing P/E: ~24.2x
• Forward P/E: ~23.5x
• Dividend: $9.20 annualized (2.59% yield)
• 52‑week range: $326.31 – $436.36
• Beta: ~1.05 (modestly more volatile than the market) ^[12]

At roughly 24x trailing earnings in a year when adjusted EPS is expected to fall about 5%, HD is not cheap on near‑term numbers. Bulls argue that the premium reflects the company’s dominant market position, high returns on capital, and an eventual housing recovery; bears counter that the multiple leaves limited room for error if housing or consumer spending remain weak. ^[13]

Inside Q3 2025: earnings miss and a guidance reset

Home Depot’s third quarter of fiscal 2025 (quarter ended Nov. 2, 2025) sits at the heart of the current debate. ^[14]

Headline numbers

According to the company’s earnings release and subsequent reporting:

• Sales: $41.4 billion, up 2.8% year over year, helped by roughly $900 million in revenue from the acquisition of building‑products distributor GMS Inc. (about eight weeks of sales).
• Comparable sales: +0.2% overall; U.S. comps +0.1%.
• GAAP EPS: $3.62 (flat vs. $3.62–3.67 a year ago, depending on adjustment basis).
• Adjusted EPS:$3.74, down slightly from $3.78 last year and about $0.09 below Wall Street’s consensus near $3.83. ^[15]

Management simultaneously cut full‑year guidance:

• Now expects FY2025 adjusted EPS to decline ~5% vs. prior guidance for a 2% decline.
• Projects ~3% total sales growth, including about $2 billion from GMS, and “slightly positive” comparable sales vs. earlier guidance of ~1% comp growth.
• Sees operating margin around 12.6% (about 13% on an adjusted basis), down from previous expectations, with gross margin ~33.2%. ^[16]

The stock dropped more than 6% on the day of the release as investors digested the miss and weaker outlook. ^[17]

Why did Home Depot miss?

In its release and follow‑up commentary, Home Depot pointed to a mix of weather and macroeconomic factors:

• Unusually calm weather: Fewer storms in Q3 reduced demand for emergency repairs and rebuilding, a significant driver of certain categories and of sales at recently acquired roofing distributor SRS. ^[18]
• Housing and consumer pressure: CEO Ted Decker cited “consumer uncertainty” and ongoing pressure in housing as key headwinds, with lower home turnover and high financing costs stalling large projects. ^[19]
• Project mix shift: Customers continue to spend, but are leaning toward smaller, lower‑ticket projects and trading down in materials, especially among budget‑sensitive homeowners. ^[20]

From an investor’s perspective, Q3 underscored that Home Depot can offset some volume weakness with acquisitions and Pro demand, but that its earnings power is still tightly linked to the broader housing cycle and weather‑sensitive spending.

Housing “funk” and homeowner fatigue

Several recent reports paint a consistent picture: the housing market, not Home Depot’s competitive position, is the main drag.

• A Fortune piece describes a “deep funk” in the housing market: high mortgage rates, low inventory and unaffordable prices have driven home turnover to multi‑decade lows, limiting the move‑driven renovation projects that historically fuel big‑ticket spending at Home Depot. ^[21]
• An Investopedia analysis highlighted “homeowner fatigue”: contractors are taking on fewer projects, customers are opting for cheaper materials, and big remodels are being postponed. It notes an estimated $50 billion in deferred repair and remodeling activity tied to slow home sales and high rates. ^[22]
• Business Insider reported that “clear skies” actually hurt Q3, as the lack of storms reduced demand for repairs and reroofing, particularly impacting SRS’s storm‑sensitive markets such as Texas. ^[23]

Looking ahead, some analysts and sector strategists point to forecasts from groups like the National Association of Realtors, which expect mortgage rates to ease modestly toward ~6% in 2026 (from roughly 6.7% in 2025) and a gradual improvement in home sales. That would provide a more supportive backdrop for Home Depot, but the timing and magnitude of any recovery remain uncertain. ^[24]

Strategy updates: acquisitions, Pro focus, AI tools and Instacart

Despite cyclical headwinds, Home Depot is still investing aggressively in its long‑term strategy:

1. Pro‑heavy growth via acquisitions

• The company recently closed its acquisition of GMS, a specialty building materials distributor, adding about $900 million of sales in Q3 alone and expected to contribute around $2 billion in revenue for FY2025. ^[25]
• It has also been expanding SRS, a roofing and building‑products distributor acquired earlier, which is heavily exposed to storm‑related reroofing and Pro contractor demand. ^[26]

These moves are part of a push to become the supplier of choice for complex, higher‑ticket Pro projects, a theme that shows up repeatedly in analyst research. ^[27]

2. AI‑powered tools for contractors

In November, Home Depot announced Blueprint Takeoffs, an AI‑powered tool that lets professional renovators and builders upload single‑family blueprints and quickly receive complete material lists and project quotes, integrated with the retailer’s Pro services and delivery network. ^[28]

The goal is to lock in more complex Pro jobs, deepen wallet share and make it easier for contractors to manage large projects end‑to‑end using Home Depot’s ecosystem.

3. Instacart partnership in Canada

On December 2, Instacart and The Home Depot Canada announced a nationwide same‑day delivery partnership, covering more than 175 Canadian stores and offering customers access to home‑improvement essentials through the Instacart app at in‑store pricing. ^[29]

This deal expands Home Depot’s omnichannel reach and mirrors the broader retail trend of rapid‑delivery options for bulky or project‑critical items.

Dividend: 155 consecutive quarters and counting

Dividend reliability is one of the main reasons some investors are willing to ride out Home Depot’s cyclical downturn.

• On November 20, 2025, the board declared a $2.30 per‑share quarterly dividend, payable December 18 to shareholders of record as of December 4. ^[30]
• This marks the 155th consecutive quarter (more than 38 years) that Home Depot has paid a cash dividend. ^[31]
• At the current share price, the annual dividend of $9.20 translates into a yield of about 2.6%, with a payout ratio in the low‑60% range on current‑year earnings. ^[32]

Home Depot has also historically been an aggressive buyer of its own stock, though the scale of repurchases tends to vary with cash needs for acquisitions and capital investment.

For income‑oriented investors, the company’s record of persistent, growing payouts is a key part of the bull case, even in periods when the share price stalls.

What Wall Street is saying today: ratings, targets and fresh calls

The Street’s view on Home Depot as of early December 2025 can be summed up as:

“Still a high‑quality compounder, but near‑term growth is constrained and expectations have been reined in.”

Consensus ratings and targets

• StockAnalysis data show 24 analysts covering HD with an average rating of “Buy” and a 12‑month price target of $423.42, implying about 19.4% upside from the latest price. ^[33]
• MarketBeat aggregates 34 analysts, with 21 rating HD “Buy”, 11 “Hold” and 2 “Sell”, for an overall “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average target near $403.93. ^[34]
• TipRanks and other aggregators show similar averages around $407–$409, with a target range stretching from roughly $320–$350 at the low end up to $497 at the high end. ^[35]

Taken together, the Street sees mid‑teens to high‑teens upside over the next year if the housing cycle improves and Home Depot’s margin and comp trends stabilize.

New on December 8: Piper Sandler’s Overweight reiteration

The most notable fresh call on December 8, 2025 comes from Piper Sandler:

• Piper reiterated an “Overweight” rating on HD with a $450 price target, comfortably above current levels and even above the average bullish target on the Street.
• The firm expects comparable sales to improve beginning in early Q1 2026, with potential acceleration later in the year as large remodel projects normalize after what it calls a three‑year COVID‑era demand pull‑forward.
• Piper does not expect Home Depot to sound overly upbeat at tomorrow’s Investor Day; instead, it anticipates management will emphasize multi‑year opportunities from housing recovery and market‑share gains, which the firm believes can drive high single‑digit EPS growth over time. ^[36]

Recent cuts: Oppenheimer, Citi, Stifel and others

Not all recent changes have been bullish:

• Oppenheimer cut its HD price target from $420 to $405 on December 5 and maintained a “Market Perform” rating, describing the move as a reflection of more cautious assumptions rather than a thesis break. ^[37]
• A MarketBeat survey of recent notes points to target reductions from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Royal Bank of Canada, Evercore ISI, Daiwa and others, with most still rating the stock Buy or Outperform but at lower expected prices. ^[38]
• In Insider Monkey’s new list of “11 Good Stocks to Buy According to Analysts,” Home Depot ranks among the picks with an estimated 25.93% upside. Citi analyst Steven Zaccone recently reiterated a Buy with a $407 target, while Stifel Nicolaus kept a Hold but trimmed its target from $370 to $350. ^[39]

The net effect: sentiment is constructive but not euphoric, with many analysts essentially saying, “We still like the long‑term story, but the near‑term macro is a headwind and valuation leaves limited margin of safety.”

Institutional positioning and options activity

Institutional money is still heavily involved in HD:

• StockTitan data show institutions owning more than 70% of Home Depot’s float. ^[40]
• A recent MarketBeat note highlighted that asset manager Ossiam has increased its stake in Home Depot, and reiterated metrics such as a P/E around 24, P/E/G near 6.3, and debt‑to‑equity above 3.8x. ^[41]

On the derivatives side:

• Recent options data flagged unusually heavy volume in short‑dated out‑of‑the‑money call options on HD, suggesting that some traders are speculating on a near‑term bounce—possibly tied to tomorrow’s Investor Day or expectations of a macro‑driven rally in consumer discretionary names. ^[42]

High institutional ownership and speculative options activity do not guarantee performance, but they underscore that HD remains a closely watched bellwether for both retail spending and the housing complex.

2026 rebound debate: value opportunity or value trap?

Several recent long‑form analyses from outlets such as The Motley Fool, Seeking Alpha and others revolve around a central question:

Will 2026 mark the start of a real earnings recovery for Home Depot, or will the stock tread water while investors wait for housing to heal? ^[43]

Key points from those discussions:

• Pressure today: Comparable sales and EPS are under pressure and expected to decline in 2025, even with the benefit of acquisitions. ^[44]
• Investments continue: Management is spending on digital, supply‑chain efficiency, Pro services and acquisitions like GMS and SRS, arguing that these will expand the addressable market and deepen relationships with high‑value Pros. ^[45]
• Valuation: A P/E around 24–25x and modest EPS decline leads some analysts to call the stock “still expensive”, even after a double‑digit pullback, while others see the valuation as reasonable given Home Depot’s long‑term record and high returns on capital. ^[46]
• Rates and housing: Many forecasts for HD hinge on mortgage rates drifting lower in 2026, which could thaw housing activity and unlock pent‑up demand for remodels and big projects. If rates fall slower—or stay higher for longer—the sideways scenario where earnings stagnate but the dividend carries total returns becomes more likely. ^[47]

In other words, the macro backdrop is doing more work in the model than company‑specific execution, at least over the next 12–18 months.

Legal and headline risks: class‑action investigation

On December 3, The Schall Law Firm announced that it is investigating claims on behalf of HD investors related to the company’s Q3 2025 disclosures. ^[48]

The firm is examining whether Home Depot:

• Issued false or misleading statements, or
• Failed to disclose information relevant to investors

around its explanation that weaker performance was due to lack of storms and housing‑related consumer uncertainty. The announcement notes that HD shares fell more than 6% on the Q3 release. ^[49]

At this stage, this is an investigation notice, not a concluded lawsuit or judgment, but it adds a layer of headline and legal risk that investors will monitor, particularly if further filings emerge.

Near‑term catalyst: 2025 Investor & Analyst Day on December 9

Home Depot will host its 2025 Investor & Analyst Conference on Tuesday, December 9 at 8:30 a.m. ET, with a webcast available on its investor relations site. ^[50]

Investors will be watching for:

• Updated 2026+ targets for sales growth, operating margins and capital allocation.
• Color on Pro‑focused initiatives, including GMS/SRS integration and the new AI Blueprint Takeoffs tool. ^[51]
• Commentary on housing and consumer trends, especially whether management sees the Q3 softness as a blip or a baseline.
• Any shift in tone versus the more cautious stance on the recent earnings call.

Given the stock’s pullback, meaningful upside or downside surprises in guidance could trigger a sharper move than usual.

What to watch if you’re following Home Depot stock

While only you can decide whether HD fits your risk profile and portfolio, here are some of the key checkpoints many investors and analysts are focusing on:

1. Macro indicators
   • Trend in mortgage rates, existing‑home sales and housing starts.
   • Consumer confidence and spending on big‑ticket discretionary items. ^[52]
2. Same‑store sales and ticket trends
   • Direction of comparable sales (slightly positive vs. negative).
   • Mix between Pro vs. DIY and large vs. small projects. ^[53]
3. Margins and cost control
   • Whether gross margin holds near guidance despite promotional activity or mix shifts.
   • Ability to defend operating margin around 12.6–13% in a softer demand environment. ^[54]
4. Balance sheet and leverage
   • Home Depot’s debt‑to‑equity ratio above 3.8x bears watching if rates remain elevated or earnings disappoint further. ^[55]
5. Capital allocation
   • Pace of share repurchases vs. acquisitions and capex.
   • Sustainability of dividend growth on top of the already‑elevated payout. ^[56]
6. Execution on strategic initiatives
   • Adoption and monetization of AI tools and digital capabilities.
   • ROI on GMS and SRS and the broader Pro ecosystem expansion. ^[57]

Bottom line

As of December 8, 2025, Home Depot stock sits at the crossroads of a cyclical housing slowdown and a long‑term retail success story:

• The near‑term numbers are tough: earnings are slipping, guidance is lower, and macro headwinds are real.
• The long‑term assets are intact: a dominant competitive position, strong Pro relationships, a growing digital and AI toolkit, and a long history of rewarding shareholders through dividends and buybacks. ^[58]

For investors tracking HD, the next 24–48 hours—especially the Investor & Analyst Day on December 9—should provide clearer answers about how management plans to bridge the gap between those two realities in 2026 and beyond.

Important: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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