Dollar General (DG) Stock on December 8, 2025: Turnaround Rally, New Stores and Fresh Price Targets Explained

Published: December 8, 2025

1. Dollar General Stock Today: Price and Performance Snapshot

Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG) is trading lower in Monday’s session after a huge post‑earnings surge but remains one of 2025’s surprise winners in U.S. retail.

As of mid‑afternoon on December 8, 2025, DG is trading around $127 per share, having touched an intraday high near $133.73 and a low just under $126. Volume is a bit lighter than the big post‑earnings spikes but still active.

Despite today’s pullback, the broader performance picture is striking:

Last 3 months: DG is up about 21.5%, beating the Nasdaq Composite’s 8.7% gain over the same period. ^[1]
Year‑to‑date 2025: DG has climbed roughly 70–75%, depending on the reference date and data provider, massively outperforming broad indices. One Barchart analysis pegs YTD gains at 74.2%. ^[2]
Versus tech leaders: Recent coverage in The Economic Times notes that Dollar General’s 2025 rally has even outpaced Nvidia’s, framing dollar stores as a barometer of a deepening U.S. “affordability crisis.” ^[3]

Put simply: Dollar General has flipped from a laggard in 2023–early 2024 to a momentum retail stock in late 2025.

2. The Q3 2025 Earnings Beat That Changed the Story

The inflection point for DG’s stock came with fiscal Q3 2025 results, released on December 4.

According to the company’s earnings release and multiple summaries:

Net sales: Up about 4.6% year‑on‑year to $10.6–10.65 billion. ^[4]
Same‑store sales: Increased 2.5%, driven largely by higher customer traffic rather than just price increases. ^[5]
Operating income: Jumped 31.5% to around $426 million, reflecting improving margins. ^[6]
EPS: Diluted earnings per share came in at $1.28, beating consensus estimates in the mid‑$0.90s by roughly 30–36%, marking Dollar General’s fourth consecutive quarterly beat. ^[7]
Gross margin: Expanded by about 110 basis points to just under 30%, helped by lower shrink (theft and loss) and better inventory markups. ^[8]

Following the report, DG shares surged as much as 13–20% in just two days, at one point leading gainers in the S&P 500. ^[9]

This earnings beat matters because it validated management’s turnaround strategy after a difficult stretch in 2023–early 2024, when operational missteps, inventory issues and customer pushback weighed heavily on the stock.

3. Guidance Raised and Dividend Reaffirmed

The Q3 report was not just about beating estimates; it also came with a “beat and raise” message for the full year.

Updated guidance for fiscal 2025 now calls for: ^[10]

Net sales growth:4.7–4.9% (up from 4.3–4.8%)
Same‑store sales growth:2.5–2.7% (up from 2.1–2.6%)
Diluted EPS:$6.30–$6.50 (up from $5.80–$6.30)
Capital expenditures: Toward the lower end of the $1.3–$1.4 billion range, signaling tighter capital discipline.

Shareholders are also being rewarded directly:

The board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.59 per share, payable January 20, 2026 to shareholders of record as of January 6, 2026. ^[11]
At current prices, that implies a dividend yield around 1.8%, a modest but notable income sweetener in retail.

Simply Wall St highlighted that, on today’s prices, the payout represents a sustainable yield supported by rising earnings and cash flow. ^[12]

4. Store Expansion and the “Back to Basics” Turnaround

Dollar General’s turnaround is not just about cutting costs; it is also heavily tied to real estate expansion and store remodels.

4.1 2025–2026 store pipeline

On recent earnings calls and in follow‑up coverage, management laid out a very aggressive footprint plan: ^[13]

2025:
- About 575 new U.S. stores
- Up to 15 new stores in Mexico
- Thousands of remodels across existing locations
2026 plan:
- Roughly 450 new U.S. stores
- Around 10 additional stores in Mexico
- Approximately 20 relocations
- 4,250 store remodels, including “Project Elevate” and “Project Renovate” concepts focused on improving layouts, cooler space and merchandising.

A separate industry report notes that Dollar General opened 196 new stores, remodeled 1,100+, and relocated several locations in just the latest quarter, underscoring the pace of execution. ^[14]

Business Insider adds that DG has identified around 11,000 potential future locations across the continental U.S., many in spaces vacated by pharmacies and other struggling chains—though management stresses it will be selective about how many of those sites it ultimately uses. ^[15]

4.2 Supply chain and cultural reforms

Behind the scenes, Dollar General has been pushing a large “Back to Basics” program and a supply chain overhaul:

AInvest reports a $1.3–1.4 billion store remodel program, SKU reductions of up to 1,000 items, and new permanent distribution facilities in Arkansas and Colorado replacing temporary warehouses—all aimed at cutting logistics bottlenecks and boosting margins. ^[16]
Management has also invested in inventory forecasting tools, shrink reduction and store‑level staffing improvements; recent data shows meaningful improvements in shrink and customer service metrics. ^[17]
Internally, initiatives like enhanced store‑manager training and a high internal‑promotion rate (reported at 64% in one training survey) are framed as part of a broader cultural reset. ^[18]

In short, the turnaround is both operational (supply chain, shrink, inventory) and cultural (staffing, training, manager empowerment). Whether those gains prove durable is the key medium‑term question for DG shareholders.

5. Who Is Shopping at Dollar General in Late 2025?

Several recent reports highlight a shift in Dollar General’s customer mix:

Traditionally, DG’s core customers have been households earning under $35,000 per year, a group still under heavy pressure from inflation, higher rates and reduced government support. Reuters notes that about a quarter of DG’s assortment remains priced at $1 or less, cementing its value positioning for this demographic. ^[19]
At the same time, both Reuters and Investopedia point out that higher‑income shoppers are increasingly trading down into dollar stores to stretch budgets, especially for consumables and basics. ^[20]

This dual‑track demand—cash‑strapped core customers plus more affluent “value seekers”—is a big part of why discount retail, including Dollar General and Dollar Tree, has dramatically outperformed several marquee growth stocks in 2025. ^[21]

However, it also introduces risk: if overcharging controversies, pricing‑accuracy probes or further economic stress hit trust in the format, much of the recent traffic could prove fragile. TS², for example, underscores a major multi‑state pricing accuracy investigation that is still hanging over the dollar‑store segment. TechStock²

6. Wall Street’s Latest Ratings, Upgrades and Price Targets

December 8 has brought another wave of analyst activity on DG stock.

6.1 Fresh target hikes today

Guggenheim: Raised its price target to $140, highlighting margin gains, improved shrink and multiple consecutive EPS beats. ^[22]
Daiwa Capital Markets: Boosted its target from $113 to $130 while maintaining a “neutral” rating, implying only a small upside from current levels. ^[23]
BNP Paribas Exane: Lifted its target from $118 to $127, also with a “neutral” stance and a consensus view that most of the near‑term good news is already reflected in the price. ^[24]

Recent notes compiled by GuruFocus show a wide range of upward revisions across the Street:

UBS: Buy, target raised to $143
Truist: Hold, target $129
BMO: Market Perform, target $130
Morgan Stanley: Equal‑Weight, target $135
Telsey: Market Perform, target $130
^[25]

6.2 Consensus ratings and average targets

Different data providers calculate slightly different “consensus” numbers, but they broadly cluster in the same zone:

MarketBeat:
- Consensus rating: “Hold”
- Average 12‑month price target: roughly $125.68 (a touch below the current price) ^[26]
StockAnalysis.com:
- 21 analysts
- Consensus rating: “Buy”
- Average target: $125.76, with a range from $80 to $143 ^[27]
Public.com analyst summary:
- 20 analysts
- Consensus: Buy (mix of Strong Buy, Buy and Hold)
- Average target: about $125.35, as of December 8, 2025 ^[28]

Taken together, the numbers tell a nuanced story:

Wall Street likes the turnaround and has been raising targets and EPS forecasts, especially after Q3. TechStock²+2Investing.com+2
Yet, with DG trading above or near many average targets, the official stance is more “cautious optimism” than full‑throated enthusiasm, especially after such a large YTD rally. TechStock²+2Barchart.com+2

7. Valuation: What the Models Say About DG Stock

With the stock up 70%+ in 2025, valuation has become the central debate.

7.1 Simple multiples

Recent valuation snapshots show:

Market cap: Around $29 billion, classifying DG as a solid large‑cap retailer. ^[29]
Trailing P/E ratio: Roughly 22–23x, based on data from Simply Wall St and other platforms. ^[30]
These multiples are above where DG traded earlier in the year but still not wildly out of line with defensive consumer‑staples peers, especially given the current margin recovery.

7.2 Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) views

Several independent valuation platforms currently argue that DG remains modestly to significantly undervalued, despite the rally:

Simply Wall St: Estimates a fair value around $172.64 per share, implying DG is about 23% undervalued using its DCF model. ^[31]
ValueInvesting.io: Puts intrinsic value near $140.87, roughly 6.4% above the latest share price. ^[32]
AlphaSpread: Shows a similar base‑case intrinsic value of about $141.1, calling DG ~6% undervalued. ^[33]
AInvest and related commentary: Highlight DCF‑based fair values in the $170–$175 range, again implying 20%+ upside, even while noting a forward P/E around 22.8x that looks rich versus some peers. ^[34]

Other recent analyses (including from Sahm Capital and Futu) likewise frame DG as undervalued by 20–35% based on cash‑flow models, although each rests on its own growth and margin assumptions. ^[35]

The takeaway: quantitative valuation tools generally lean bullish, but they also acknowledge that the model outputs are sensitive to assumptions about long‑term store productivity, margin sustainability and capital intensity.

8. Key Risks to Watch: Consumers, Scrutiny and Execution

For all the enthusiasm around DG’s comeback, recent coverage repeatedly flags several risks that investors and traders should keep on their radar.

8.1 Consumer‑health risk

DG’s core shoppers—often lower‑income households—remain financially stretched, with inflation, high interest rates and weaker confidence compressing budgets. ^[36]
While “trade‑down” dynamics have helped discount retailers in 2025, there is a limit to how much pressured consumers can spend, especially if essential categories keep inflating or if controversy around pricing accuracy erodes trust. ^[37]

8.2 Regulatory and reputational risk

TS² and other outlets highlight state‑level investigations into pricing accuracy across the dollar‑store industry, including Dollar General. These probes focus on discrepancies between shelf tags and register prices. TechStock²
Any fines, mandated operational changes or reputational damage could partially offset the recent margin and traffic gains, particularly if they reignite criticism around the company’s treatment of lower‑income shoppers.

8.3 Execution risk on expansion and remodels

The scale of DG’s real estate and remodel program is both a growth driver and a risk factor:

Management plans thousands of remodels and hundreds of store openings across 2025–2026, with capital expenditures still running in the $1.3–$1.4 billion range. ^[38]
Analysts warn that DG must avoid cannibalizing its own stores and manage shrink, staffing and inventory discipline as it pushes further into rural and small‑town markets. ^[39]

8.4 Valuation and momentum risk

Barchart notes that DG has far outpaced the Nasdaq over the last 3, 12 and YTD periods, and TS² frames the stock as a momentum‑charged turnaround that is now trading above the average analyst target. ^[40]
That combination means sentiment and positioning—FOMO buying versus profit‑taking—could drive short‑term moves just as much as fundamentals, especially around key technical levels near the recent 52‑week high (mid‑$130s). TechStock²+1

9. Bottom Line: What December 8, 2025 Means for DG Stock

As of December 8, 2025, Dollar General sits at the intersection of turnaround execution and valuation tension:

The company has delivered a clean Q3 beat, raised guidance, expanded margins and laid out a clear multi‑year plan for store growth and remodels. ^[41]
The stock has staged a dramatic 2025 rally, significantly outperforming the Nasdaq, Walmart, and even some celebrated tech names, as investors bet on discounters as winners of the affordability squeeze. ^[42]
Wall Street has responded with upgraded price targets and EPS estimates, but consensus targets in the mid‑$120s and “Hold to Moderate Buy” ratings signal that many believe a lot of the near‑term good news is already in the price. ^[43]
Independent valuation platforms, meanwhile, generally see some degree of undervaluation, especially under optimistic margin and growth scenarios, though their fair‑value ranges are wide. ^[44]

For traders, DG today looks like a momentum‑driven turnaround stock, where short‑term action may pivot on technical levels and sentiment around the latest earnings gap.

For longer‑term investors, the key questions are more fundamental:

Can Dollar General sustain margin gains while expanding into thousands of new or remodeled locations?
Will consumer strain and regulatory scrutiny blunt the benefits of trade‑down demand?
And can the company keep delivering EPS beats that justify current multiples and potentially a re‑rating closer to DCF‑implied fair value?

As always, this overview is information and analysis only, not investment advice. Anyone considering DG stock should evaluate their own risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio needs, and—ideally—consult a qualified financial professional before making decisions.