RBA Interest Rates Today, 9 December 2025: Cash Rate Expected to Hold at 3.60% as Markets Look to 2026

Published: 9 December 2025 (before the 2:30 pm AEDT decision)

Today the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is holding its final monetary policy meeting of 2025, with the cash rate widely expected to stay at 3.60%. The official decision and statement are scheduled for 2:30 pm AEDT, followed by a press conference with Governor Michele Bullock at 3:30 pm AEDT. ^[1]

At the time of writing, the Board has not yet released its December decision. What we do have is a very clear picture of expectations: economists, markets and the big four banks are almost unanimously betting on no change, while debate heats up over whether the next move in 2026 will be a hike or a cut. ^[2]

Below is a roundup of today’s key forecasts and analysis, what’s driving them, and what it all means for Australian borrowers, savers and investors.

Where the RBA cash rate stands going into today’s meeting

The cash rate story over the last 18 months has flipped from aggressive tightening to a cautious easing cycle that is now on pause.

In December 2024, the RBA held the cash rate at 4.35%, judging that underlying inflation was still “too high”. ^[3]
In 2025, the Board delivered three 25‑basis‑point cuts:
- February: cut to 4.10%. ^[4]
- May: cut to 3.85%. ^[5]
- August: cut to 3.60%. ^[6]
Since August, the cash rate has been held at 3.60% at the September and November meetings. ^[7]

The RBA’s own dashboard confirms the cash rate target at 3.60%, effective 5 November 2025, with the next update set for 2:30 pm today. ^[8]

Inflation, meanwhile, has started to edge higher again. The Bank’s site shows the Consumer Price Index up 3.8% year‑on‑year in October, above the 2–3% target band. ^[9] Other data and commentary suggest trimmed mean inflation – the RBA’s preferred “core” measure – is running around 3.3%, also above target. ^[10]

That combination – lower rates than a year ago, but inflation heading back up – is the backdrop for today’s decision.

What economists are expecting from the December 2025 RBA meeting

Overwhelming consensus: no move today

If the RBA surprises with a rate change today, it will shock almost everyone following it:

A Finder survey of more than 40 economists and property experts shows 100% expecting the cash rate to be held at 3.60% in December. ^[11]
Canstar reports that none of the big four banks (CBA, Westpac, NAB, ANZ) forecast a change at today’s meeting. ^[12]
A detailed MNI preview notes that all 31 analysts in a Bloomberg survey expect the RBA to stay on hold, with market pricing showing effectively no chance of a hike or cut today. ^[13]

Live coverage on the ABC’s markets blog likewise frames today as a likely non‑event on the headline rate, but a big deal for guidance: markets are “tipped” for a hold at 3.6%, with the focus firmly on what the post‑meeting statement says about the next move. ^[14]

Big four banks: long on-hold, gently diverging views for 2026

Canstar’s wrap‑up of bank forecasts shows subtle differences, but one clear near‑term message: no December move. ^[15]

Commonwealth Bank (CBA) expects today’s decision to be unanimous and sees the cash rate remaining unchanged through all of 2026, although it thinks the language may become more “hawkish” if inflation risks keep shifting upward. ^[16]
NAB has dropped its previous call for a 2026 rate cut and now expects no further easing in the foreseeable future, reflecting stickier inflation and stronger growth data. ^[17]
ANZ has similarly scrapped its forecast for an early‑2026 cut and now sees a long plateau at 3.60%, unless core inflation proves more persistent or the labour market weakens materially. ^[18]
Westpac is the outlier: it still pencils in two 25‑basis‑point cuts in 2026, starting around May, which would take the cash rate down to 3.10% – but it does not expect any change today. ^[19]

InDaily Queensland, citing Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis, notes that the Bank is likely to stay “emphatically” on hold not just this month but for much of 2026, even though Westpac’s own forecasts allow for the possibility of two cuts if conditions soften. ^[20]

Independent economists: divided on whether the next move is up or down

Across independent commentators, the direction of the next move is now the hot debate.

A piece in Broker Daily (Mortgage Business) notes that while “there is little hope for a rate cut today”, chatter about eventual rate hikes is gathering momentum. Economists point to sticky services inflation, a labour market that is neither weak nor overheated, and moderate growth as reasons for caution. ^[21]
On Switzer Daily, Peter Switzer argues that today should deliver a “no change” outcome, but highlights economists like Warren Hogan who think rates should already be higher, as well as others like Tim Toohey and AMP’s Diana Mousina who still see a larger risk of cuts if growth and jobs slow. ^[22]

The upshot: almost everyone agrees the December 2025 decision is a hold; opinion splits sharply on whether the 2026 path is more likely to involve hikes, cuts or an extended pause.

What financial markets are pricing

Market pricing is just as emphatic as the economist surveys.

The ASX RBA Rate Indicator (based on 30‑day interbank cash rate futures) shows December pricing clustered very close to the current 3.60% target, indicating markets see virtually no probability of a move at today’s meeting. ^[23]
IG’s “Week Ahead” note says Australian equity traders are treading water, with the ASX 200 “flat” as investors wait for an RBA decision that is widely expected to hold at 3.60%. The focus is instead on how the Bank’s communication evolves after stronger‑than‑expected inflation, solid Q3 GDP and robust October household spending. ^[24]
A preview for forex traders on Babypips describes a hold at 3.60% as “almost fully priced in”, suggesting the Australian dollar’s bigger moves will depend on whether Governor Bullock signals that the easing cycle is over or that the next move could be up. ^[25]

In other words, markets have already “baked in” a hold; the real risk for traders is that the RBA’s language is either more hawkish or more dovish than expected.

Why the RBA is likely to hold: inflation, growth and jobs

Inflation has re‑accelerated above target

After encouraging progress earlier in 2025, inflation has become more concerning again:

The RBA’s dashboard shows headline CPI rising 3.8% over the year to October, up from 3.6%, and above the 2–3% target band. ^[26]
“Trimmed mean” core inflation is estimated around 3.3%, indicating underlying price pressures are still stronger than the Bank would like. ^[27]

In its November 4 statement, the RBA already flagged that underlying inflation had picked up, with annual trimmed mean inflation rising to 3.0% in the September quarter, higher than it had projected in August. ^[28]

That statement also noted that the Board expected underlying inflation to rise above 3% in coming quarters before drifting back toward 2.6% by 2027, under a technical assumption of one more cut in 2026. ^[29] Since then, the October CPI and activity data have come in hotter than expected, making that assumption look more optimistic.

An MNI preview summarises the dilemma neatly: October underlying CPI near 3.3% and firm domestic demand mean the RBA is likely to keep rates on hold for some time, but could adopt a more hawkish tone, emphasising upside inflation risks. ^[30]

Growth is picking up, not faltering

Several indicators show the Australian economy growing at around – or slightly above – potential:

Q3 GDP rose 0.4% quarter‑on‑quarter and 2.1% year‑on‑year, the fastest annual growth since 2023, according to IG’s summary of official data. ^[31]
October household spending jumped 1.3% month‑on‑month and 5.6% year‑on‑year, the quickest annual pace in more than a year. ^[32]
The RBA’s November statement described “recovering” private demand and a strengthening housing market, noting that credit was readily available and the labour market remained “a little tight”, even as unemployment edged higher to around 4.5%. ^[33]

MNI analysis suggests the Bank’s own Q4 2025 forecast of 2.0% annual GDP growth may actually be conservative, given recent strength in domestic demand, employment, imports and household expenditure. If the “output gap” is close to closed, stronger demand raises the risk of inflation staying above target. ^[34]

Taken together, the data look too hot for a cut, but not so strong that the RBA is forced into an immediate hike – a classic set‑up for an extended period on hold.

Markets vs economists: will rates rise in 2026?

Today’s meeting is as much about 2026 expectations as it is about tonight’s cash rate.

Markets: now fully pricing a hike next year

According to The Guardian, financial markets are now effectively pricing a 100% chance that the RBA will raise rates at some point in 2026, a sharp turnaround from just weeks ago when traders saw decent odds of a cut. ^[35]

The shift follows:

October CPI rising to 3.8%. ^[36]
Stronger GDP and household spending data showing the economy “accelerating into the new year”. ^[37]
A housing market that has re‑heated after three cuts this year, pushing affordability to record lows in some cities. ^[38]

Economists: more cautious, many still see a long plateau

Economists are less convinced that hikes are inevitable:

AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver has stopped forecasting another cut, but he still thinks markets may be overestimating the probability of higher rates, pointing to a softening labour market and fragile consumer spending. ^[39]
Diana Mousina at AMP, quoted by Switzer, argues that talk of hikes is “premature” with inflation just above 3%, job ads flat, public spending set to slow and consumers increasingly price‑sensitive. In her base case, rates remain on hold for an extended period, with a larger risk of cuts if unemployment rises. ^[40]
Westpac’s Luci Ellis likewise sees the RBA staying on hold “for much of next year”, even though Westpac’s formal forecast still allows for two cuts, underlining just how data‑dependent the outlook has become. ^[41]

In short: markets have swung decisively toward a 2026 hike; many economists still think the more likely path is a prolonged plateau at 3.60%, with a non‑trivial chance of cuts if growth and jobs disappoint.

What today’s RBA decision means for mortgages, savings and housing

Even if the RBA stands pat today, the decision – and the wording of the statement – will ripple through household finances.

Home loan borrowers

A hold at 3.60% means variable‑rate mortgage holders are unlikely to see immediate changes to their rates from today’s decision alone. ^[42]
However, the shift in expectations toward possible hikes in 2026 has already prompted many banks to nudge fixed rates higher, as reported by Canstar and other analysts. ^[43]
The three cuts earlier in 2025 have already reduced repayments for many borrowers; a renewed hiking cycle in 2026 would partially unwind that relief.

For households, that makes building a repayment buffer and shopping around for competitive rates more important than ever. (This is general information only, not personal advice.)

Savers and term deposits

For savers, today’s expected hold is a mixed blessing:

Deposit rates, which rose sharply as the RBA tightened and then eased only modestly as it cut, are likely to remain broadly stable in the near term. ^[44]
If markets are right and the next move is up, savers could see slightly higher returns in 2026 – but the timing and size remain highly uncertain.

Property market

The Guardian notes that three rate cuts this year have helped drive another leg higher in home prices, with Westpac now tipping national prices to rise around 8% in 2025 and even faster in Brisbane and Perth. ^[45]

If the RBA signals that further easing is off the table – or hints that hikes are possible – it could gradually cool some of that heat, particularly among investors and highly leveraged buyers, without triggering an immediate downturn.

Key times and data to watch after today

Even once today’s decision is out, the RBA’s path will depend heavily on upcoming data.

Here are the key dates flagged by the RBA and analysts:

9 December 2025
- 2:30 pm AEDT – Monetary Policy Decision statement. ^[46]
- 3:30 pm AEDT – Governor Bullock’s press conference. ^[47]
10 December 2025 – RBA Chart Pack updated with fresh graphs on the economy and financial markets. ^[48]
Late December 2025 – Minutes of today’s meeting, giving more detail on the Board’s discussion. ^[49]
7 January 2026 – Next monthly CPI release, critical for confirming whether inflation is still drifting higher or starting to ease again. ^[50]
2–3 February 2026 – First Monetary Policy Board meeting of 2026, with a new decision and Statement on Monetary Policy. ^[51]

Those releases will either reinforce the case for a very long hold at 3.60% – or push the Bank closer to considering hikes or cuts next year.

Bottom line

Today’s RBA meeting (9 December 2025) is almost universally expected to leave the cash rate at 3.60%, after three cuts earlier this year. ^[52]
Inflation has re‑accelerated above target, domestic demand is firm and the labour market is only gradually easing – all reasons the Bank is likely to stay cautious. ^[53]
Markets now price in a 2026 hike, while many economists think the more likely outcome is a long plateau at current levels, with cuts still possible if growth falters. ^[54]
For households, today is less about a surprise rate move and more about reading the RBA’s language on inflation, growth and the labour market – signals that will shape mortgages, savings rates and the housing market in the year ahead.

As always, any rate‑related decisions for your own finances should be made with your full circumstances in mind and, ideally, with professional advice. This article provides general information only.