Home Depot (HD) Stock on December 9, 2025: Investor Day Guidance, 2026 Outlook, and What It Means for Shareholders

Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) is in the spotlight today as management hosts its 2025 Investor & Analyst Conference in Atlanta, reaffirming 2025 guidance while laying out a cautious, below-consensus outlook for 2026. That mix of steady near‑term performance and tempered expectations for next year is driving trading in Home Depot stock and reshaping Wall Street forecasts.

As of around 15:00 UTC on December 9, 2025, HD shares were trading near $355.13, up about 1.5% on the day after earlier weakness, but still roughly 10% lower year-to-date, versus a roughly 16% gain for the S&P 500 over the same period. ^[1]

Below is a breakdown of the latest news, numbers, and analyst views investors are watching today.

HD stock today: from premarket drop to intraday rebound

Markets reacted quickly to Home Depot’s new 2026 commentary:

Premarket trading: Before the opening bell, HD stock traded around $342.51, down about 2.1%, as investors digested guidance that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. ^[2]
Regular session: By mid-session the stock had recovered to roughly $355, up about 1.5% on the day, suggesting some investors see the updated outlook as “bad but not disastrous,” and possibly a bar that’s easier to beat later.
Year-to-date: Despite today’s bounce, the stock remains down around 10% in 2025, while the broader S&P 500 is up about 16%, underscoring sustained underperformance in a strong market. ^[3]

In other words, HD is still a laggard in 2025, and today’s news is being viewed through the lens of a stock that has already had a difficult year.

Key takeaways from Home Depot’s Investor & Analyst Conference

Today’s Investor & Analyst Conference is all about two things: reaffirming 2025 guidance and resetting expectations for 2026.

1. 2025 guidance reaffirmed

Home Depot reaffirmed its full‑year 2025 outlook, which was updated after Q3 results. Management expects: ^[4]

Total sales growth: ~3% vs. fiscal 2024
- Includes roughly $2 billion in incremental sales from the GMS acquisition.
Comparable sales: Slightly positive for the comparable 52‑week period.
New stores: About 12 net openings.
Margins:
- Gross margin: ~33.2%
- Operating margin: ~12.6%
- Adjusted operating margin: ~13.0%
Earnings:
- Reported diluted EPS: ~6% decline vs. $14.91 in fiscal 2024
- Adjusted diluted EPS: ~5% decline vs. $15.24 in 2024
Capital allocation:
- Capex: ~2.5% of total sales
- Net interest expense: about $2.3 billion
- Tax rate: ~24.5%

Management is essentially saying: 2025 is a stabilization year – modest top-line growth, modestly positive comps, and margin pressure tied to acquisitions and a still‑soft housing backdrop.

2. A cautious 2026 outlook

The main headline for markets today is the preliminary 2026 outlook, which came in below analyst expectations on both sales and earnings. ^[5]

For fiscal 2026, Home Depot now expects:

Home-improvement market growth:–1% to +1%
Comparable sales growth (HD):flat to +2%
Total sales growth (HD):+2.5% to +4.5%
Operating margin:12.4%–12.6%
Adjusted operating margin:12.8%–13.0%
Diluted EPS growth:flat to +4%
Adjusted EPS growth:flat to +4%

By comparison, analyst models had penciled in higher growth:

Visible Alpha data cited by Investopedia put consensus 2026 total sales growth around 4.3%, slightly above the high end of Home Depot’s range. ^[6]
Reuters notes that the company’s flat to +2% comp growth and flat to +4% EPS growth are also below average analyst estimates (comps around 2.34%, EPS growth around 5.6%). ^[7]

That gap between management’s cautious stance and street expectations is a big reason the stock traded lower in early trading.

3. “Market Recovery Case”: the upside scenario

To balance the conservative base case, Home Depot introduced a more optimistic “Market Recovery Case” – essentially a scenario in which housing activity and big‑ticket home improvement spending finally bounce back. ^[8]

Under this scenario, the company believes it could deliver:

Total sales growth:+5% to +6%
Total comparable sales growth:+4% to +5%
Operating profit growth:faster than sales
EPS growth:mid‑to‑high single digits

CFO Richard McPhail emphasized that when housing recovers, Home Depot expects the home‑improvement market to grow faster than the general economy, and that HD will grow faster than that market thanks to its scale, pro-focused strategy, and network of stores and SRS locations. ^[9]

CEO Ted Decker reiterated that strategic priorities remain to:

“Drive core and culture”
Deliver a frictionless interconnected (omnichannel) experience
“Win the Pro” – deepen penetration with professional contractors and builders. ^[10]

Why Wall Street was disappointed

Several elements of today’s update have made investors nervous:

Guidance below expectations. Both Reuters and Investopedia highlight that Home Depot’s 2026 comp and EPS targets are lower than the consensus that had built up ahead of investor day. ^[11]
Housing recovery taking longer than hoped. Management explicitly acknowledged that the rebound in housing turnover and big‑ticket remodeling projects has not yet materialized, despite easing mortgage rates. ^[12]
Lower “starting point” for future beats. DA Davidson described the 2026 guidance as setting “a lower initial bar”, even as they kept a Buy rating and a $430 price target, arguing that the longer‑term Market Recovery Case still offers attractive upside if housing normalizes. ^[13]
Another year of only modest earnings growth. Coming off a 2025 where EPS is expected to decline ~5–6%, a base case of flat to low‑single‑digit EPS growth in 2026 reinforces the idea that Home Depot is in a multi‑year digestion phase, not a high‑growth story. ^[14]

Put simply: the story isn’t broken, but expectations had crept ahead of what management is now willing to promise.

Recent earnings: modest growth, margin pressure, and cautious tone

Home Depot’s Q3 2025 results help explain why management is so measured on the outlook.

Q3 2025 by the numbers

For the quarter ended November 2, 2025, Home Depot reported: ^[15]

Net sales:$41.4 billion, up 2.8% year over year
Comparable sales:+0.2%, with U.S. comps +0.1%
Big-ticket transactions (>$1,000):+2.3%
Digital sales: revenue leveraging digital platforms up around 11%
Reported diluted EPS:$3.62 vs. $3.67 a year ago
Adjusted EPS:$3.74 vs. $3.78 last year, and below analyst expectations of about $3.84
Gross margin:33.4%, flat vs. Q3 2024
Operating margin:12.9% (down from 13.5%); adjusted operating margin 13.3% (down from 13.8%)

YTD, net sales have risen to $126.5 billion from $119.8 billion, driven primarily by acquisitions (SRS and GMS added about $5.4 billion in incremental sales), modestly positive comps, and a handful of new stores. ^[16]

Operating environment: still tough

Q3 commentary from the company and analysts highlighted several ongoing headwinds: ^[17]

Weak housing turnover – housing activity relative to total housing stock is near 40‑year lows.
Higher borrowing costs – even with some recent easing, elevated mortgage and credit rates continue to weigh on large remodeling projects.
Soft, storm‑related demand – a milder storm season reduced demand for categories such as roofing and power generation.
Cautious consumers – traffic declines and a tilt toward smaller, necessity‑driven projects rather than major renovations.

The upshot: Home Depot is growing, but not fast, and it’s having to work harder on margins while navigating a sluggish macro backdrop.

Strategy in focus: Pro customers, AI tools, and omnichannel

Even as the near‑term guidance is conservative, Home Depot is investing aggressively in capabilities it believes will fuel growth when the housing cycle turns.

Winning the “Pro” customer

Professional contractors and builders (“Pros”) are central to the company’s strategy:

HD has expanded its footprint through the acquisition of SRS Distribution and GMS, boosting exposure to roofing, pools, landscaping and building products. ^[18]
Both Pro and DIY comparable sales were positive and roughly in line in Q3, but management sees the Pro segment as the bigger long‑term opportunity. ^[19]

AI‑powered Blueprint Takeoffs and digital tools

A key recent announcement is the launch of Blueprint Takeoffs, an AI‑powered tool designed to help Pros generate complete material lists and quotes for single‑family projects:

The tool can produce a full material list and quote within days instead of weeks, streamlining one of the most time‑consuming stages of a construction project.
Pros can then purchase all materials through Home Depot, with integrated order management, trade credit, and same‑day/next‑day delivery options. ^[20]

This complements other digital and Pro‑focused initiatives:

Project planning tools and order tracking for complex jobs. ^[21]
Enhanced interconnected retail capabilities, improving fulfillment speeds and customer satisfaction.
A growing suite of online and in‑store support via Pro desks and dedicated account teams.

These moves are designed to make Home Depot the default platform for professional customers when the next upcycle in housing and construction begins.

Dividend and shareholder returns

Income‑oriented investors continue to pay close attention to Home Depot’s dividend profile.

On November 20, 2025, the board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $2.30 per share, payable December 18, 2025 to shareholders of record as of December 4, 2025. ^[22]
This marks the 155th consecutive quarterly dividend, underscoring a long track record of returning cash to shareholders. ^[23]

At today’s price around $355, that $2.30 quarterly payout (annualized $9.20) implies a dividend yield of roughly 2.6%, before any future increases or changes.

Coupled with ongoing share repurchases (which management has historically used to supplement dividends), HD remains positioned as a cash‑return story, even in slower growth periods. ^[24]

Wall Street view: still a “Moderate Buy,” but targets trimmed

Despite recent volatility and guidance cuts, the consensus on HD stock remains cautiously positive.

Consensus ratings and price targets

MarketBeat reports that 34 Wall Street analysts now rate Home Depot a “Moderate Buy”, with:
- 21 Buy, 11 Hold, and 2 Sell ratings.
- An average 12‑month price target of $403.50, implying roughly 14% upside from around $353–$355. The target range runs from $320 to $470. ^[25]
MarketWatch shows a similar picture, with an average recommendation of “Overweight” and an average target near $403 across about 37 ratings. ^[26]
StockAnalysis and WallStreetZen both show a “Buy” consensus with average targets in the low‑$420s, implying high‑teens to ~20% upside over the next year, though methodologies differ. ^[27]

Fresh analyst commentary around investor day

Recent analyst notes reflect a mix of near‑term caution and longer‑term optimism:

DA Davidson: Reiterated Buy with a $430 target, highlighting the Market Recovery Case of 5–6% annual top‑line growth and mid‑to‑high single‑digit EPS growth as attractive if housing improves, while acknowledging that 2026 guidance sets a lower start point. ^[28]
Piper Sandler & UBS: Both maintain Overweight/Buy ratings with price targets of $450 and $445, respectively, expecting an improvement in home‑improvement demand starting in early 2026. ^[29]
Stifel: Keeps a Hold rating but recently cut its target from $370 to $350, citing a more muted near‑term demand profile. ^[30]
Several firms including Oppenheimer, Argus, Guggenheim, Citigroup and UBS have trimmed targets in recent weeks, even while keeping generally positive ratings. ^[31]

In short, Wall Street still largely likes Home Depot, but the price targets are drifting lower, and patience may be required.

Key risks and what to watch

Investors following HD stock over the next 12–24 months will likely focus on a few critical questions:

Housing market trajectory
- Housing turnover and big‑ticket projects remain subdued, with activity near multi‑decade lows. A faster‑than‑expected recovery could make the Market Recovery Case look conservative; a prolonged slump would pressure earnings beyond 2026. ^[32]
Consumer health and interest rates
- The Federal Reserve’s path for interest rates, and its effect on borrowing costs, will heavily influence demand for large home projects. Lower rates may eventually unlock “pent‑up demand,” but the timing remains uncertain. ^[33]
Integration and execution risk
- Integrating SRS and GMS while protecting margins is a multi‑year project. Management expects these deals to strengthen HD’s pro franchise, but integration missteps could weigh on profitability. ^[34]
Competition
- Lowe’s and a range of online and specialty players continue to compete aggressively on price, service, and digital experiences, raising the bar for Home Depot’s omnichannel strategy. ^[35]
Valuation vs. growth
- With a P/E around the mid‑20s and only flat‑to‑low single‑digit EPS growth expected in 2026, the stock’s valuation is neither cheap nor extreme. Some platforms view HD as fairly valued to slightly overvalued at current levels, even as analysts see mid‑teens upside over 12 months. ^[36]

Bottom line: A high‑quality franchise in a mid‑cycle pause

From an information standpoint, December 9, 2025 brings a clear message:

Near term (2025–2026):
- Modest sales growth, modestly positive comps, pressured margins, and cautious EPS guidance as housing and big‑ticket demand remain under strain.
Medium to long term:
- A strong competitive position, deep Pro relationships, AI‑driven tools like Blueprint Takeoffs, and an omnichannel ecosystem that could drive outperformance when housing normalizes. ^[37]

For investors, Home Depot now looks like:

A steady, dividend‑paying blue chip with a long record of cash returns,
A cyclical play on housing and home improvement rather than a rapid‑growth story, and
A stock where expectations have been reset lower, which may reduce downside if results merely meet the new guidance – but where upside still depends heavily on a housing recovery.

As always, this article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investors should consider their own objectives, risk tolerance, and time horizon, and consult a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.