Netflix Stock After Hours on December 9, 2025: Warner Bros. Deal Shock, Wall Street Downgrades and What to Watch Before the December 10 Open

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) closed Tuesday’s session (December 9, 2025) just under $97 per share, essentially flat on the day but still down roughly 11% from where it started December, as markets continue to digest the company’s blockbuster plan to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery and the mounting backlash around it. ^[1]

Below is a full rundown of what moved the stock after the bell on December 9 – and the key catalysts investors should focus on before the market opens on Wednesday, December 10, 2025.

1. Where Netflix Stock Stands After the Bell on December 9, 2025

• Closing price: Around $96.7, with an intraday range roughly between $95.5 and $97.2. ^[2]
• Daily move: About –0.1%, a quiet session compared with last week’s heavy selling. ^[3]
• Volume: Just over 51 million shares, roughly half of Monday’s 100+ million shares traded as the initial shock around the Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) deal begins to cool. ^[4]
• Short-term trend: From a close near $109 on December 1 to under $97 on December 9, NFLX has slid about 11% in a little over a week. ^[5]

Price-wise, the stock is now:

• Well below its early‑December post‑split highs around $109.
• Still massively above where it traded a year ago, when Netflix’s 12‑month performance roughly doubled investors’ money according to 24/7 Wall St. ^[6]

In other words: after hours, the stock looks calm – but under the surface, the story has changed dramatically.

2. The Warner Bros. Discovery Mega-Deal: Why December 9 Was So Important

2.1. The size – and uncertainty – of the deal

Netflix has announced plans to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s studio and streaming businesses, including HBO, HBO Max and the Warner Bros. film and TV assets, in a transaction various outlets value between about $72 billion and $83 billion, depending on the mix of equity, assumed debt and break-up fees. ^[7]

At a strategic level, Netflix argues that absorbing Warner’s premium IP — from Harry Potter and DC to Game of Thrones — would cement its position as the world’s dominant streaming and entertainment platform. ^[8]

But on December 9, several new developments made the deal look riskier and less certain:

2.2. Paramount Skydance launches a hostile bid

• Paramount Skydance Corp (PSKY) has launched a hostile competing offer for Warner Bros. Discovery worth about $108.4 billion, comfortably above Netflix’s earlier proposal. ^[9]
• Zacks/TradingView coverage framed the question bluntly: Is Netflix’s bid for WBD in jeopardy now that Paramount is trying to outbid it? ^[10]

The market’s read so far:

• If Netflix wins the bidding war, it may have to overpay, increasing leverage and execution risk.
• If Netflix loses, it gives up what management itself has painted as a cornerstone acquisition for long‑term growth.

Either way, investors see a wide range of outcomes, which tends to compress valuation multiples in the short term.

2.3. New consumer lawsuit: antitrust concerns go mainstream

A major headline after the bell came from Reuters:

• A Warner Bros. Discovery/HBO Max subscriber filed a proposed consumer class action in U.S. federal court (Northern District of California) seeking to block Netflix’s planned $72 billion Warner deal on antitrust grounds. ^[11]
• The complaint argues that combining Netflix with HBO Max would sharply reduce competition in U.S. subscription video‑on‑demand and give Netflix too much control over iconic franchises like Harry Potter, DC Comics and Game of Thrones. ^[12]

Consumer lawsuits rarely decide mega‑mergers on their own, but this one:

• Adds to political pressure already coming from members of Congress who have described the deal as an “anti‑monopoly nightmare” and a threat to consumer choice and content diversity. ^[13]
• Creates additional headline risk that can weigh on the stock every time a new filing or court decision hits the tape.

2.4. Credit markets worry about the debt math

On the debt side, a Barron’s‑highlighted report from credit‑research firm Gimme Credit raised red flags: ^[14]

• Netflix would take on nearly $11 billion of Warner’s existing debt and may need to raise about $50 billion in new borrowing to fund the deal.
• That could push Netflix’s debt‑to‑EBITDA ratio from around 1.1× to above 4×, a level more typical of lower‑rated investment‑grade or even risky credits.
• Gimme Credit downgraded Netflix’s bonds to “Underperform”, warning that the higher leverage could put pressure on Netflix’s single‑A credit ratings at Moody’s and S&P, especially if a bidding war pushes the final price even higher. ^[15]

For equity holders, this matters because:

• More leverage increases earnings volatility in a downturn.
• A rating downgrade would likely mean higher interest costs on future debt, cutting into free cash flow that might otherwise support buybacks or further content investment.

2.5. Netflix’s late‑night letter: “Nothing is changing today”

In an effort to reassure customers (and implicitly, investors), Netflix sent a late‑night email to roughly 300 million subscribers explaining the Warner deal. ^[16]

Key points from the letter and accompanying FAQ:

• “Nothing is changing today” – both Netflix and HBO Max will continue to operate separately for now. ^[17]
• The company estimates the regulatory and shareholder approval process will take 12–18 months, with the earliest closing around December 2026. ^[18]
• Existing subscription plans and pricing remain unchanged, and Warner Bros. content will not immediately migrate to Netflix. ^[19]

Politicians and industry groups were less reassured:

• U.S. lawmakers across the political spectrum – including Senator Elizabeth Warren and others – warned that the tie‑up could lead to higher prices, more ads and fewer choices, while unions like SAG‑AFTRA and the Writers Guild voiced concerns about jobs and creative control. ^[20]

In short: the company is trying to calm users and regulators, but the regulatory overhang around the deal is now a central part of the Netflix stock story.

2.6. International angle: JioHotstar and the Warner partnership

A separate Reuters story underscored that Warner’s existing distribution deals will continue to matter even if Netflix ultimately acquires the company:

• India’s JioHotstar, co‑owned by Reliance and Disney, announced a $444 million investment in South Indian content and said it will keep its content partnership with Warner Bros Discovery in place until the current contract expires, despite Netflix’s acquisition plan. ^[21]

For Netflix, this means:

• Near‑term synergies outside the U.S. may be limited by existing licensing deals.
• The merged entity might need years to fully rationalise overlapping streaming rights and brands in key growth markets.

3. What Wall Street Said About Netflix on (and just before) December 9

While the stock was relatively quiet after hours, analyst activity around Netflix was anything but.

3.1. Needham sticks with “Buy” and a $150 target

On December 9, Needham analyst Laura Martin reiterated a “Buy” rating on Netflix with a $150 price target, signalling continued confidence despite the Warner drama. ^[22]

Her report (as summarised by GuruFocus) also highlights:

• Netflix’s 300M+ subscriber base and global scale. ^[23]
• The company’s ability to monetise through subscriptions plus advertising, which is becoming a meaningful revenue contributor. ^[24]

3.2. A wave of target cuts around the Warner announcement

Needham’s optimism sits alongside a string of more cautious moves over the last 48 hours:

• Rosenblatt Securities: Downgraded NFLX from Buy to Neutral and slashed its price target from $152 to $105, citing increased risk around the Warner deal and integration. ^[25]
• Pivotal Research: Cut its rating from Buy to Hold, also landing at a $105 target. ^[26]
• Bernstein SocGen Group: Lowered its target from $139 to $125 but kept an Outperform rating, emphasizing that the regulatory review has “a real possibility” of scuttling the deal. ^[27]
• Canaccord Genuity: Maintained a Buy call with a target around $152.5. ^[28]
• UBS, Barclays, Oppenheimer and others remain generally constructive but with a wide range of targets from the low $100s to around $145. ^[29]

Meanwhile, Bank of America has reportedly upgraded Netflix bonds to Overweight, arguing that recent weakness has improved the risk/reward in the company’s debt despite Warner‑related uncertainties. ^[30]

3.3. Street-wide consensus: upside, but with a big spread

Across Wall Street:

• TipRanks shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus based on 37 analyst ratings, with:
  • 28 Buy, 7 Hold, 2 Sell ratings.
  • A 12‑month average price target of about $137, with a high of $160 and a low around $92. ^[31]
• GuruFocus aggregates 42 analysts at an average target around $133–134, implying roughly 38% upside from prices in the mid‑$90s, with a consensus recommendation equivalent to “Outperform.” ^[32]

A 24/7 Wall St. forecast note released November 30 goes even further, projecting that Netflix could reach about $121 by year‑end 2025, then climb toward $144 in 2026 and above $220 by 2030 under a base‑case scenario of roughly 12% annual revenue growth and expanding margins. ^[33]

Of course, those are models, not guarantees — the wide target range (from sub‑$80 to $160+) is the clearest sign of just how polarising the stock has become.

3.4. Commentary on the stock split and valuation

A widely shared Zacks piece, carried by Nasdaq, reminded investors that Netflix’s 90% “price drop” in November was purely mechanical, the result of its 10‑for‑1 stock split that took effect at the open on November 17, 2025. ^[34]

• Pre‑split, NFLX traded around $1,100–1,140.
• Post‑split, each old share became 10 new shares, trading near $110 — leaving total investor value unchanged. ^[35]

Finviz/Motley Fool coverage noted that while Netflix is the highest‑profile stock split of 2025, it’s not automatically the “no‑brainer” split stock to buy, with some commentators preferring steadier names like O’Reilly Automotive for long‑term compounding. ^[36]

Separately, a Nasdaq‑hosted video column titled “Is Netflix Stock a Buying Opportunity for 2026?” emphasised that Netflix remains a high‑quality business but that some analysts currently see better risk‑reward elsewhere in their top‑10 picks list. ^[37]

4. Under the Headlines: Netflix’s Core Business and Latest Earnings

While the Warner headlines dominate the tape, it’s worth remembering what the underlying business looks like heading into 2026.

4.1. Q3 2025 earnings: strong growth, but an EPS miss

For Q3 2025, third‑party summaries of Netflix’s results show: ^[38]

• Revenue: About $11.5 billion, up ~4% quarter‑over‑quarter and mid‑teens year‑over‑year.
• EPS: Around $5.87, below consensus expectations that were close to $6.9–7.0.
• Net income: Roughly $2.5 billion, again short of the Street’s more optimistic projections.
• Full‑year 2025 guidance: Revenue around $45.1 billion, at the high end of a previously guided $44.8–$45.2 billion range, and an operating margin near 29%.
• Q4 2025 guidance: Revenue close to $11.96 billion, operating income about $2.86 billion and diluted EPS around $5.45.

The market punished the EPS miss back in October, but guidance shows Netflix still expects:

• High‑teens profit growth.
• Healthy free cash flow, even while pouring money into original content, live events and now, potentially, Warner assets. ^[39]

4.2. Subscribers and monetisation

Across multiple sources:

• Netflix now counts around 300–301 million paying subscribers worldwide. ^[40]
• The company is increasingly leaning on advertising and gaming as additional growth engines, with ad‑tier memberships reportedly up 35% quarter‑over‑quarter and accounting for roughly half of new sign‑ups in ad markets, according to 24/7 Wall St’s breakdown. ^[41]

That’s the backdrop against which investors must judge whether the Warner bet – and the extra leverage that comes with it – enhances or undermines Netflix’s already strong unit economics.

5. Five Things to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 10, 2025

Here are the key catalysts and risks Netflix watchers should focus on ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. open.

5.1. Pre‑market trading in Netflix and its deal peers

Before the bell, keep an eye on:

• NFLX pre‑market quotes to see whether overnight headlines (especially around the lawsuit or political statements) trigger a break below Tuesday’s intraday low near $95.5, or whether buyers defend that support. ^[42]
• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) and Paramount Skydance (PSKY), which often trade directionally with perceived probabilities of who wins the bidding war. A sharp move in either name could foreshadow sentiment for Netflix once the cash session opens. ^[43]

If NFLX trades calmly in pre‑market despite all the headlines, it may signal that much of the near‑term bad news is already priced in – at least for now.

5.2. Any new legal or political developments overnight

The December 9 consumer lawsuit is almost certainly not the last legal or political twist: ^[44]

• Watch for follow‑on suits, amicus briefs, or statements from state attorneys general and the U.S. Department of Justice or FTC.
• Additional letters from lawmakers or public hearings focused on “Big Streaming” consolidation could add further pressure.

Any sign that regulators might move quickly to challenge the deal formally would likely be taken as a negative for the stock in the short term, even if some investors ultimately prefer a world where Netflix doesn’t lever up to buy Warner.

5.3. Fed decision and U.S. inflation data: macro risk for all growth stocks

Netflix will not trade in a vacuum on Wednesday.

• Economic calendars show U.S. CPI data and key interest‑rate decisions scheduled for December 10, with markets expecting fresh signals on the path of inflation and policy. ^[45]
• Reuters reports that the Federal Reserve began a closely watched two‑day meeting on December 9, with investors widely expecting a 25‑basis‑point rate cut but also bracing for one of the most contentious Fed debates in years. ^[46]

For high‑duration growth names like Netflix:

• A more dovish Fed and benign inflation print would generally support higher valuations and could help the stock stabilise, even amid Warner noise.
• A hawkish surprise or hotter‑than‑expected CPI could hit the entire growth complex, adding macro selling pressure on top of Netflix’s company‑specific challenges.

5.4. Credit market reaction and rating‑agency chatter

Given Gimme Credit’s warning that the Warner deal could push Netflix’s leverage above 4× EBITDA and threaten its single‑A credit rating, bond‑market sentiment is worth watching as closely as the equity. ^[47]

Ahead of the open:

• Watch for any commentary from Moody’s or S&P Global Ratings about placing Netflix on review for downgrade.
• Wider spreads on Netflix bonds or large block trades in its debt could foreshadow equity volatility as equity investors react to higher perceived financial risk.

5.5. Fresh analyst notes and media coverage

After the flurry of downgrades and target cuts on December 8–9, there is likely more research to come:

• Additional sell‑side revisions – especially if major firms move from Buy to Hold or cut targets closer to current prices – could drive incremental selling pressure. ^[48]
• At the same time, more bullish outlets like 24/7 Wall St. and some Motley Fool contributors continue to highlight Netflix’s long‑term upside, particularly if the company can execute on advertising, gaming and live events. ^[49]

For traders and long‑term investors alike, Wednesday morning’s news cycle will be crucial in determining whether the stock bases around the mid‑$90s or resumes its December slide.

6. Bottom Line: How to Frame Netflix Stock Going Into December 10

Putting it all together, here’s the big picture heading into Wednesday’s session:

1. The stock is wobbling, not crashing. After a sharp 11% drop since the start of the month, NFLX is now moving in smaller daily increments, suggesting that some short‑term capitulation may already have occurred. ^[50]
2. The Warner Bros. Discovery deal is now the central risk – and opportunity.
   • If approved on reasonable terms, it would give Netflix unmatched scale and IP.
   • If blocked or outbid, it could force management back to the drawing board on how to reignite growth beyond streaming. ^[51]
3. Wall Street is split but still generally bullish.
   • Consensus targets cluster in the low‑to‑mid $130s, implying roughly 35–40% upside from current levels. ^[52]
   • Yet the recent downgrade wave and the wide target range show that uncertainty is unusually high.
4. Fundamentals remain strong, but execution risk is rising.
   • Netflix is growing revenue in the mid‑teens, generating billions in free cash flow and pushing margins higher. ^[53]
   • Layering tens of billions in additional debt and integrating a complex media conglomerate could easily go wrong – and the bond market is starting to price that in. ^[54]
5. Macro will amplify whatever Netflix does next.
   • With U.S. CPI and a potentially contentious Fed decision on deck, all high‑growth tech and media stocks, including Netflix, are likely to see elevated volatility around the December 10 open and into the close. ^[55]

Important note

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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