Procter & Gamble Company (The) (NYSE: PG) heads into the December 10, 2025 U.S. trading session sitting near its recent lows, with investors trying to decide whether the world‑famous “Dividend King” is a bargain or a value trap.
On Tuesday, December 9, PG shares closed around $139.63, up about 0.93% on the day, but still well below the 52‑week high near $180 and only a little above a recent low around $138. [1] That leaves the stock roughly 20–25% under many fair‑value estimates, yet still trading at around 20× earnings, a premium multiple for a slow‑growth consumer‑staples giant. [2]
Below is a rundown of how PG traded on December 9, the most important news and analysis published that day, and the key levels and catalysts to watch before the market opens on Wednesday, December 10, 2025.
How Procter & Gamble Stock Traded on December 9, 2025
Price and volume
- Close: About $139.63, up from $138.34 on December 8 (+0.93%). [3]
- Intraday range: Roughly $139.00 – $140.87. [4]
- Recent trend: PG has fallen in 7 of the last 10 sessions, down about 5% over that period and roughly 17% over the past year, according to technical analysis cited by StockInvest.us and valuation work by Simply Wall St. [5]
- 52‑week range: About $179.99 high vs. a 52‑week low near $138–$138.2, putting Tuesday’s close just above the new low. [6]
- Market cap: Around $323–326 billion as of December 9. [7]
In other words, Tuesday’s modest bounce came after a sharp slide: PG dropped 3.6% on December 8 and has been grinding lower for weeks. [8]
Why PG Has Been Under Pressure: CFO Warning and Macro Headwinds
The current setup can’t be understood without the shock on December 2, when Procter & Gamble hit a two‑year low after comments from CFO Andre Schulten at the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference. [9]
According to coverage from Investopedia and follow‑on analysis pieces:
- Schulten described the U.S. consumer environment as unusually volatile, with shoppers “nervous and cautious.”
- He said category sales in P&G’s U.S. markets were down significantly in October, with November expected to look similar, blaming a mix of:
- A tough comparison to last year’s port‑strike‑driven stockpiling,
- The government shutdown and
- Delayed SNAP (food‑assistance) benefits, which hurt lower‑income consumers’ spending power. [10]
Those comments, layered on top of already soft sentiment toward defensive staples, sent PG to its lowest level since late 2023. [11]
At the same time, P&G is working through a large restructuring:
- A program announced in June includes about 7,000 job cuts and potential exits from certain non‑core activities.
- The company also appointed a new CEO in July 2025, part of a broader simplification and productivity push. [12]
Several recent analyses also flag tariffs and trade policy as a new drag:
- TS2 and other outlets, citing P&G investor materials, note that new U.S. tariff regimes and related cost pressures could trim roughly $0.19 from FY 2026 EPS once combined with commodities and financing headwinds, even after currency tailwinds. TechStock²+1
Taken together, investors are digesting: a cautious consumer, weak U.S. volumes, tariff uncertainty, and an ongoing restructuring — all at a time when global markets are shifting money from defensive names into faster‑growing or cheaper sectors.
Fundamentals Still Look Strong: Earnings, Guidance and Balance Sheet
Despite the share‑price weakness, P&G’s underlying numbers remain solid:
- In its most recent reported quarter (fiscal Q1 2026, reported October 24), PG delivered EPS of about $1.99, beating consensus near $1.90. Revenue was roughly $22.4 billion, slightly ahead of expectations, with about 3% year‑over‑year growth. [13]
- Net margin sits near 19.7% and return on equity exceeds 32%, metrics that remain best‑in‑class for consumer packaged goods. [14]
- Management reaffirmed FY 2026 EPS guidance of $6.83–$7.10, while Wall Street consensus clusters around $6.9 per share. [15]
Balance‑sheet and cash‑flow strength are also key pillars:
- Debt‑to‑equity is around 0.46, with current and quick ratios of roughly 0.71 and 0.51, indicating manageable leverage and ample liquidity. [16]
- P&G expects to return approximately $15 billion to shareholders this fiscal year via dividends and buybacks, according to recent investor‑relations commentary summarized by TS2. TechStock²+1
So the story is not about an earnings collapse; it’s about how much investors are willing to pay for slow, steady growth given the macro clouds and defensive‑stock fatigue.
The Dividend King Angle: Why Income Investors Are Watching Closely
On December 9, MarketMinute (syndicated via multiple local business outlets) highlighted P&G’s latest dividend declaration and reiterated its status as a “Dividend King.” [17]
Key dividend facts:
- P&G declared a quarterly dividend of about $1.0568 per share on October 14, 2025. [18]
- That equates to a $4.23 annualized dividend, implying a yield of roughly 3.0–3.1% at Tuesday’s close. [19]
- The company has:
- Paid a dividend for about 135 consecutive years, and
- Raised the payout for roughly 69 straight years. [20]
- The dividend payout ratio is in the ~61–62% range of earnings, a level analysts consider sustainable for a mature, cash‑rich staples business. [21]
That combination — long streak, mid‑single‑digit annual dividend growth and a 3% yield — is why many institutions still treat PG as a core defensive holding, even as they trim exposure to richly valued staples.
New Corporate News on December 9, 2025
Several fresh headlines involving P&G crossed the wires on December 9.
1. Febreze moves into car cabins
Premium Guard Inc. announced a licensing partnership with Procter & Gamble to launch Febreze™ cabin air filters using PUREFLOW® filtration technology. [22]
- The filters will combine multi‑layer particulate filtration with activated charcoal and odor‑neutralizing compounds, targeting dust, pollen, exhaust and in‑vehicle odors.
- The new products are expected to roll out through major retailers and e‑commerce channels in early 2026, initially in North America with select global markets to follow. [23]
Financial impact isn’t quantified, but it expands Febreze into the automotive aftermarket and reinforces P&G’s strategy of monetizing its biggest brands across new categories.
2. Fresh institutional buying
A MarketBeat report published on December 9 highlighted that Jump Financial LLC has initiated a new PG position of 49,528 shares, worth roughly $7.9 million based on recent prices. [24]
- The article notes that about 66% of P&G’s shares are held by institutions, underscoring the stock’s blue‑chip status. [25]
3. Valuation deep‑dive: Simply Wall St sees sizable upside
Simply Wall St’s December 9 note, “Is Procter & Gamble’s Share Price Slide Creating a Long Term Opportunity in 2025?” argues that the pullback may have gone too far. [26]
Highlights from their analysis:
- PG’s share price of about $138–139 is associated with:
- ‑6.2% return over the last week,
- ‑5.9% over the last month, and
- ‑16.9% over the last year, though 5‑year returns remain positive (~15%). [27]
- A discounted cash‑flow (DCF) model suggests an intrinsic value near $185 per share, implying the stock trades at roughly a 25% discount to that fair‑value estimate. [28]
- On a P/E basis, PG trades around 19.6× earnings, slightly above the broader household‑products industry but below the “fair” multiple of 22× that Simply Wall St’s model assigns based on margins, growth and risk profile — again indicating modest undervaluation. [29]
They present both a bull narrative (fair value around $169, ~18% upside) and a bear narrative (fair value around $120, implying limited upside from here), underscoring the genuine disagreement among long‑term investors. [30]
4. TS2: “Dividend King near 52‑week lows” and a two‑year low recap
Two in‑depth TS2 pieces on December 9 pull together much of the recent bearish narrative: TechStock²+1
- They emphasize that PG:
- Is trading just above its new 52‑week low around $138 and far below its 12‑month high near $180. TechStock²+1
- Faces tariff‑related EPS pressure,
- Is navigating legal risk around products like Kid’s Crest toothpaste and broader packaging and fluoride‑safety scrutiny, and
- Is dealing with U.S. volume declines and trade‑down to private labels, especially among middle‑ and lower‑income shoppers. TechStock²+1
TS2’s synthesis: operationally strong, but macroeconomically challenged, with investors questioning how much to pay for safety when growth is limited and regulatory risks are rising. TechStock²
What the Models and Technical Analysts Are Saying After the Bell
Wall Street analysts: “Moderate Buy” with double‑digit upside
Across major brokerages, PG still carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus:
- MarketBeat data shows roughly 12–13 Buy ratings and 8–9 Hold ratings, with an average 12‑month price target around $171–172 per share. [31]
- That target implies around 20–23% upside from Tuesday’s close near $139.6 if earnings and margins stay on track. [32]
StockInvest.us: still a short‑term “sell candidate”
StockInvest.us updated its PG technical review after Tuesday’s close: [33]
- They note the 0.93% gain on December 9 but point out that the price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 sessions, down about 5% over that span.
- Their model has flagged PG as a “sell candidate” since December 4, citing:
- A falling short‑term trend,
- Price trading well below both short‑ and long‑term moving averages, and
- A negative MACD (three‑month). [34]
- They estimate:
- A possible trading range on Wednesday, December 10 between about $138.30 and $140.96, based on recent volatility.
- A short‑term projection for the next three months in which PG could decline around 7–8% from current levels, with 90% of simulated outcomes landing between roughly $127.7 and $137.8. [35]
CoinCodex: small dip tomorrow, mild bounce over the next week
Algorithmic forecasts from CoinCodex, updated just after midnight GMT on December 10, paint a slightly different near‑term picture: [36]
- Current price used in their model: $139.63.
- Forecast for December 10, 2025: around $138.34, implying a ‑0.92% move vs. the current level.
- Five‑day path:
- Dec 11: ~$140.12
- Dec 12: ~$141.28
- Dec 13: ~$141.90
- Dec 14: ~$142.45, about 2.0% above the current price.
- One‑month target: roughly $145.54, about 5.2% higher than today’s level.
- One‑year forecast: essentially flat, around $138.60, and a 2030 forecast that actually sits below today’s price, underlining their view of PG as a low‑growth, low‑volatility name. [37]
CoinCodex also flags:
- Technical sentiment: “Bearish,” with 24 bearish vs 2 bullish indicators,
- 50‑day and 200‑day SMAs at $148.9 and $158.4, respectively — meaning PG is trading well below both, usually considered a negative technical signal. [38]
Options and volatility
GuruFocus and other data aggregators have recently highlighted relatively elevated options activity and a low beta (around 0.36–0.40), consistent with PG’s profile as a low‑volatility, income‑oriented stock that can still see sharp short‑term moves when sentiment shifts. [39]
Macro Backdrop Heading Into the December 10 Open
PG will open on December 10 against a sensitive macro backdrop:
- Federal Reserve meeting: Markets are focused on a two‑day Fed meeting that began Tuesday and concludes Wednesday, with a rate decision and updated dot plot expected in the afternoon. Stock indexes and futures have been choppy but relatively subdued as traders wait for guidance on 2026 rate‑cut timing. [40]
- Growth vs defensives rotation: Recent weeks have seen growth and tech stocks lead, while defensives like consumer staples have lagged — part of why P&G’s derating has been so sharp even without a collapse in earnings. [41]
- U.S. consumer signals: P&G’s own CFO has now become a widely cited voice warning about a more fragile U.S. consumer, which could make investors especially sensitive to any fresh macro or retail data this week. [42]
For PG specifically, the next formally scheduled big catalyst is its January 28, 2026 earnings report, noted by multiple forecast and data services. [43]
Key Levels and Themes to Watch Before the December 10 Open
Based on Tuesday’s close and the latest analyses from December 9, here are the most important things PG traders and long‑term holders may focus on before the bell:
1. Support near recent lows
- Immediate support: Around $138.34, Monday’s closing price and a key volume‑based support level called out by StockInvest.us. [44]
- 52‑week low zone: Roughly $138–$138.2, where several data providers place the new low for this cycle. [45]
If PG opens near the $139.8 “fair opening price” StockInvest.us projects and then slides back toward support, traders will be watching closely to see whether buyers defend that zone or let the stock break lower. [46]
2. Resistance and moving averages
- Short‑term resistance levels from several technical models cluster between $143–$147, with particularly important hurdles at:
- Around $143.8 and $147.7, where key moving averages sit, and
- The 50‑day SMA near $148.9 and 200‑day SMA around $158.4, per CoinCodex and StockInvest. [47]
Any sustained move back above the mid‑$140s would be seen as the first step toward repairing the technical damage.
3. Short‑term trading range for Wednesday
- StockInvest.us expects PG to trade between about $138.30 and $140.96 on December 10, based on its 14‑day Average True Range, implying roughly ±1.9% intraday potential from Tuesday’s close. [48]
- CoinCodex’s algorithm, by contrast, expects a small dip to $138.34, followed by a slow grind toward the low‑$142s over the next five days. [49]
Both frameworks agree on one thing: volatility is currently low‑to‑moderate, but sentiment is fragile.
4. Diverging narratives: undervalued compounder vs. value trap
Heading into the December 10 session, investors are essentially choosing between two stories:
The bullish take
- Simply Wall St’s DCF work and many sell‑side models put PG’s fair value in the $170–$185 range, 20–30% above current levels. [50]
- The company remains a global leader in essential categories, with a 3%+ dividend yield, high margins and massive free‑cash‑flow generation. [51]
- The recent sell‑off pushed the stock to valuation metrics closer to the staples sector average rather than at a big premium, making it look more like a high‑quality compounder at a reasonable price. [52]
The bearish take
- Technical services like StockInvest.us keep PG flagged as a short‑term sell candidate, with the price below all major moving averages and a still‑negative momentum profile. [53]
- P&G’s P/E near 20× still sits above some peers, even though organic growth is low single digits and U.S. volumes are shrinking in several categories. [54]
- The U.S. consumer warning, tariff‑related EPS drag, and ongoing legal and regulatory scrutiny around packaging and kid‑focused products all add risk to the slow‑and‑steady story. [55]
For now, the consensus view in many December 9 analyses is that P&G looks “reasonably priced, not screamingly cheap; challenged, not broken; and most attractive as a durable dividend engine rather than a high‑octane growth play.” TechStock²+1
Bottom Line: What to Know Before the December 10, 2025 Open
Going into Wednesday’s U.S. session, here’s the distilled takeaway for PG:
- Price location:
- Around $139.6, PG is trading just above fresh 52‑week lows and roughly 20–25% below many fair‑value estimates and its own 52‑week high. [56]
- Fundamentals vs. sentiment:
- Earnings, margins and cash flows remain robust, and FY 2026 guidance still calls for mid‑single‑digit EPS growth.
- Sentiment, however, has turned cautious due to the CFO’s warning on U.S. consumer weakness, tariff risk and a broader rotation away from defensives. [57]
- Income story intact:
- The Dividend King narrative is unbroken: a 3% yield, decades of increases, and a payout backed by strong cash generation. [58]
- Near‑term expectations:
- Quant models see either a slight dip then a mild bounce (CoinCodex) or continued weakness within a falling trend (StockInvest), with modest volatility but high sensitivity to news. [59]
- Catalysts to monitor:
- Wednesday’s Fed decision and commentary,
- Any fresh data or commentary on U.S. consumer spending,
- Developments in tariff policy and legal actions (such as the Kid’s Crest packaging lawsuit), and
- Company‑specific updates ahead of the January 28 earnings report, including more detail on restructuring and cost‑savings execution. [60]
As always, this overview is informational only and not investment advice. Anyone considering trading or investing in Procter & Gamble should evaluate their own objectives, risk tolerance and time horizon, and may want to consult a qualified financial professional before making decisions.
References
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