Qualcomm (QCOM) After-Hours Update: AI Hype, Analyst Split and What to Watch Before the December 10, 2025 Open

Dateline: December 10, 2025 – New York

Qualcomm stock (NASDAQ: QCOM) ended Tuesday, December 9, 2025, quietly higher but with a lot of noise swirling around it – from new AI-chip optimism and bullish technical models to fresh downgrades and warnings that it could be an “AI loser.” As traders prepare for the U.S. market open on Wednesday, December 10, the stock sits near the mid–high end of its 52‑week range, with expectations, hype and risk all elevated. ^[1]

Below is a rundown of how QCOM traded after the bell, the key news and forecasts published on December 9, and the main things to know before the next session begins.

How Qualcomm Stock Traded on December 9, 2025

Regular session

Data from Yahoo Finance and other quote providers show that Qualcomm shares finished Tuesday around $176 per share, up roughly 0.4% on the day. ^[2]

Key intraday stats:

• Opening price: roughly $174.5
• Intraday high: about $176.3–176.4
• Intraday low: around $172.3
• Daily move: about +0.39% from Monday’s close near $175.3 ^[3]

A technical note from StockInvest.us highlights that QCOM has:

• Risen three days in a row
• Gained in 7 of the last 10 sessions
• Climbed about 6.7% over the past two weeks
• Seen about 6 million shares trade on Tuesday, with volume slightly below the prior day, which the service flags as a mild divergence (rising price, falling volume). ^[4]

After-hours move

After the closing bell:

• MarketWatch’s after‑hours data shows QCOM trading around $175.84, down about 0.09% from the $176.00 close, on roughly 240k shares of after‑hours volume as of about 5:30 p.m. EST. ^[5]

In other words: price action into the evening was essentially flat, suggesting that the real story for December 9 was in the headlines and forecasts rather than in a dramatic after‑hours swing.

Big Picture: Qualcomm’s AI and Diversification Story Going Into 2026

The context for Tuesday’s trading is a multi‑month re‑rating of Qualcomm as more than “just a smartphone chip stock.”

Earnings and guidance: still solid

For the fiscal fourth quarter ended September 28, 2025, Qualcomm reported:

• Revenue: about $11.27 billion, up roughly 10% year over year
• Adjusted EPS:$3.00, ahead of consensus estimates near $2.87–2.88 ^[6]

For the current quarter (Q1 FY 2026), management guided to:

• Revenue midpoint around $12.2 billion
• Adjusted EPS midpoint around $3.40, both above Wall Street expectations at the time of the report ^[7]

Reuters notes that the beat and guidance were driven by a rebound in premium smartphones and robust non‑Apple revenue, even as Qualcomm prepares for its modem share in Samsung’s Galaxy S26 to drop from 100% to about 75%. ^[8]

Data-center AI chips: AI200 and AI250

Back in October, Qualcomm unveiled two new data‑center AI chips, the AI200 and AI250, aimed at inference workloads and designed to ship in 2026 and 2027 respectively. The announcement sent the stock up about 20% in a single session, underlining investor enthusiasm for the company’s AI push. ^[9]

Key points from that launch:

• The chips are optimized for AI inference with improved memory capacity and support for mainstream AI frameworks.
• Qualcomm also introduced AI server racks based on these chips, moving closer to the “full system” model championed by Nvidia and AMD.
• Saudi‑backed AI startup Humain is slated to deploy about 200 MW of Qualcomm AI racks starting in 2026. ^[10]

Edge AI, PCs, automotive and IoT

A detailed December 9 analysis on TS2.tech lays out Qualcomm’s broader AI roadmap: TechStock²

• Smartphones & edge AI:
  • Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 is the new flagship SoC, marketed as Qualcomm’s third generation of on‑device generative AI.
• AI PCs:
  • Snapdragon X2 follows this year’s Snapdragon X Elite, targeting Windows AI laptops with NPUs capable of roughly 45 TOPS, in line with forecasts for tens of millions of AI PCs shipped annually over the next few years.
• Data center AI:
  • Data‑center AI products are expected to contribute meaningfully from fiscal 2027 onward, according to management commentary cited by AlphaSense and Reuters. TechStock²+1
• Automotive and IoT:
  • Automotive revenue has recently reached about $1 billion per quarter, with growth over 20% year on year.
  • Combined Automotive + IoT revenue grew about 27% in FY 2025, and management is reiterating a long‑term target of roughly $22 billion in those segments by fiscal 2029. TechStock²

M&A and ecosystem building

TS2 and other coverage highlight a series of 2025 deals that support this pivot: TechStock²+1

• Alphawave – about $2.4 billion for high‑speed interconnect and data‑center connectivity IP.
• Autotalks – V2X acquisition to strengthen automotive safety and communications (under regulatory scrutiny but still part of the AI/auto growth story).
• Arduino and VinAI assets – to deepen edge AI software and developer ecosystem.

Taken together, Tuesday’s modest price move sits on top of a much larger narrative: Qualcomm is trying to morph into an edge‑to‑cloud AI and connectivity platform company, with smartphones as just one pillar.

December 9, 2025: Key News, Forecasts and Analyses

A surprising amount of fresh Qualcomm‑related content hit the wires on December 9. Here’s what stood out.

1. Technical models: StockInvest.us upgrades QCOM to “Strong Buy candidate”

StockInvest.us updated its technical view on December 9, upgrading QCOM from “Buy” to “Strong Buy candidate” based on price action and trend analysis. ^[11]

Highlights from that model:

• QCOM is trading within a “wide and weak rising trend” in the short term, but both short‑ and long‑term moving averages currently flash bullish signals.
• Short‑term support is flagged near $173–174, with resistance around $179–180.
• Over the next three months, the model projects a 4.2% upside with a 90% probability the price will land between roughly $168 and $199.
• For Wednesday, December 10, the system expects:
  • Fair opening price: about $174.89
  • Intraday trading range around $173.7–178.3, based on recent average true range. ^[12]

This is a purely technical, quantitative view; it does not account for macro events like the Federal Reserve decision.

2. Invezz/TradingView: “Qualcomm stock price is sending mixed signals”

A same‑day article syndicated via TradingView and Invezz notes that QCOM’s recent rebound off its lows has drawn in dip buyers, but that the technical picture is not clearly bullish. ^[13]

From the snippet:

• The stock has bounced from its recent pullback, aligning with the broader semiconductor recovery.
• However, some indicators are described as “mixed,” leading the piece to pose the question “is it a good buy?” rather than treating the rebound as a slam‑dunk uptrend.

In other words: not all chart watchers are seeing the same thing StockInvest’s model sees.

3. TS2.tech: “Qualcomm Stock (QCOM) Today: AI Chips, Institutional Buying and 2026 Outlook”

TS2’s December 9 piece functions almost like an all‑in‑one Qualcomm dossier, combining fundamentals, AI strategy and a round‑up of Wall Street and algorithmic forecasts. TechStock²

Key takeaways:

• Fundamentals:
  • Confirms the Q4 2025 beat: $11.27B revenue and $3.00 EPS versus consensus around $10.7B and $2.87.
  • Notes Q1 2026 guidance pointing to 12–16% growth in full‑year revenue and non‑GAAP EPS.
• Dividend and cash returns:
  • Quarterly dividend is $0.89 per share, with the next payment scheduled for December 18, 2025, to shareholders of record on December 4. Annualized, that’s $3.56 per share, implying a yield near 2% at current prices. TechStock²+1
  • Qualcomm returned roughly $3.4 billion to shareholders in the latest quarter via dividends and buybacks, while maintaining a solid balance sheet. TechStock²
• Valuation snapshot:
  • Trailing P/E near 36, PEG ratio around 3.8, and price closer to the upper half of a 52‑week band of about $120.8–205.9. TechStock²+1
  • Several DCF‑style models (Simply Wall St, Alphaspread) see QCOM as modestly undervalued or fairly valued, but with a wide spread depending on how aggressive AI assumptions are. TechStock²

TS2 emphasizes that Qualcomm’s Automotive and IoT segments are increasingly important, and that long‑term targets for these units are a central pillar of the bullish case.

4. Alternative data and sentiment: QuiverQuant’s AI‑chip chatter and insider sales

QuiverQuant published an alt‑data roundup on December 9 focused on AI chip launch sentiment and institutional flows. ^[14]

Highlights:

• Social media buzz:
  • X (Twitter) chatter is dominated by Qualcomm’s AI chip announcements and the possibility of it competing more directly with Nvidia and AMD in data centers.
  • Posts also call out strong performance in automotive and IoT, but sentiment is a mix of bullish excitement and cautious skepticism about how much AI upside is already priced in.
• Insider activity:
  • Over the last six months, insiders executed 35 sales and zero open‑market purchases.
  • CEO Cristiano Amon sold about 150,000 shares (~$24.8M), while other executives collectively sold tens of thousands more, leaving insider ownership around 0.08% according to related MarketBeat coverage. ^[15]
• Hedge fund and institutional flows:
  • 1,237 institutions increased their QCOM holdings, while 1,397 reduced them in the latest quarter.
  • Big movers include UBS Asset Management adding over 8 million shares, Wellington adding more than 7 million, and several funds fully exiting positions. ^[16]
• Analyst ratings & targets (recent months):
  • Recent ratings from Mizuho, BofA, Rosenblatt, Piper Sandler and JPMorgan are predominantly “Buy” / “Outperform” / “Overweight”, with a median 12‑month target around $200.
  • Individual targets range from $165 (Wells Fargo) to $225 (Rosenblatt). ^[17]

This paints a nuanced picture: strong institutional interest and bullish analyst targets, but also persistent insider selling and churn among large funds.

5. MarketBeat: Institutions rotate and Wall Street Zen downgrades QCOM

Several fresh MarketBeat items on December 9 dig into institutional ownership and ratings: ^[18]

• Ossiam cut its QCOM stake by 70.9% in Q2, selling 56,610 shares.
• London & Capital Asset Management reduced its position by 53.9%, selling 179,571 shares but still holding about 153,507 shares valued at ~$24.5M.
• Jump Financial LLC, by contrast, boosted its stake by over 400%, to about 43,890 shares.

Across these pieces, MarketBeat reiterates:

• Institutional ownership around 74%+ of the float.
• The recent Q4 beat and Q1 guidance (EPS 3.30–3.50; revenue above consensus).
• Ongoing concern about insider selling, including Amon’s 150,000‑share sale and total insider sales of roughly 164,661 shares (~$27M) over 90 days.

Crucially, Wall Street Zen downgraded QCOM from “Buy” to “Hold” on December 9, even as the broader analyst consensus remains “Moderate Buy” with about 13 Buy, 7 Hold and 1 Sell rating and a consensus price target around $191. ^[19]

6. MVTec–Qualcomm collaboration: faster deep-learning applications

A December 9 press announcement (accessible via RoboticsTomorrow) reported a collaboration between MVTec Software and Qualcomm focused on speeding up deep‑learning applications, presumably by optimizing MVTec’s machine‑vision and industrial AI workloads on Qualcomm hardware. ^[20]

Details are sparse from the public snippet, but it fits the pattern of Qualcomm seeking software and ecosystem partnerships to make its AI hardware more compelling in industrial and robotics use cases.

7. The “AI loser” narrative reappears

Not all coverage on December 9 was flattering.

A MarketWatch piece, building on a Wedbush Securities note, grouped Qualcomm with Intel, Adobe and others as potential “AI losers” – companies that might see their business models structurally pressured by the AI shift rather than supercharged by it. ^[21]

Wedbush’s concern, echoed in earlier commentary and referenced again by TS2, is essentially:

• Nvidia and a handful of AI infrastructure leaders could capture a large share of AI economics.
• Qualcomm may have less leverage in cloud AI than in mobile, and could struggle to win enough high‑margin AI workloads to justify an AI‑premium valuation.

That narrative directly contradicts the “Strong Buy candidate” label from technical models and the “AI‑exposed upgrade” thesis from some fundamental analysts, which is why QCOM’s story currently looks so two‑sided.

8. Long-form perspectives: “Qualcomm stock is now exposed to the AI theme” and 2026 opportunities

Several longer‑term angles remain relevant as of December 9:

• A Seeking Alpha analysis from last month argued that Qualcomm has become firmly “exposed to the AI theme” thanks to its AI200/AI250 chips and edge AI roadmap, and upgraded the stock accordingly. ^[22]
• A Nasdaq/Motley Fool article on December 9 asked whether Qualcomm is a buying opportunity for 2026, emphasizing its diversification beyond smartphones into PCs, automotive and AI infrastructure. The piece leans constructive on the strategy, even if QCOM didn’t make their “top 10 stocks” list. ^[23]
• A MarketBeat feature from September (still widely cited in December) described how Qualcomm began outperforming Nvidia after months of lagging, driven by analyst upgrades, automotive and IoT momentum, and a valuation discount vs. AI peers. ^[24]

These articles frame Qualcomm as a second‑tier AI beneficiary: not the Nvidia of inference, but potentially under‑appreciated if its automotive, IoT and AI PC bets pay off.

What to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 10, 2025

1. Macro backdrop: the Fed’s “big decision”

Broad market tone is likely to matter as much as Qualcomm‑specific headlines.

A live blog from 24/7 Wall St on December 9 notes that markets see roughly an 89.6% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at Wednesday’s meeting, with traders also fixated on updated projections for growth, inflation and unemployment. ^[25]

For a large, AI‑exposed semiconductor name like Qualcomm, key macro implications:

• A dovish Fed (cut + friendly guidance) typically favors:
  • Higher‑multiple growth and AI names
  • Risk‑on sectors like semiconductors
• A hawkish surprise or talk of stagflation could hit:
  • High‑valuation tech, especially stocks that have rerated sharply on AI narratives
  • Cyclical parts of Qualcomm’s business tied to smartphones and PCs

Short version: QCOM’s opening print on December 10 will probably reflect both its own story and the market’s reaction to the Fed.

2. Technical levels and near-term trading range

From StockInvest’s December 9 forecast: ^[26]

• Predicted opening (Wed, Dec 10): about $174.9
• Expected intraday range: roughly $173.7–178.3, implying potential intraday swings of ~±2.6%.
• Key support: around $173–174, based on accumulated volume.
• Near resistance: around $179–180.

The stock is currently closer to support than resistance, which that model interprets as an attractive intraday risk/reward setup. Again, that’s a technical take, not a guarantee.

3. Analyst and algorithmic forecasts released into the close

Beyond traditional analysts, TS2’s December 9 roundup highlights some algorithmic and DCF‑based models that traders may eye into Wednesday: TechStock²

• Wall Street consensus:
  • MarketBeat and Benzinga aggregates show:
    • Consensus “Moderate Buy”
    • Average 12‑month targets in the $189–192 range
    • Target spread from about $150 on the low end to $225–270 on the high end.
• DCF / intrinsic value models:
  • Some Simply Wall St scenarios put fair value in the $190–$205+ range.
  • Alphaspread’s blended model sits closer to $176, calling QCOM roughly fairly valued at today’s price.
• Algorithmic forecasts:
  • CoinCodex’s technical model flags a bullish near‑term signal with a narrow five‑day range mostly between $172 and $176, but its long‑term quant forecast bizarrely points to a sharp drop toward ~$113 in a year, and even lower by 2030.
  • Intellectia.ai’s pattern‑matching model sees potential for a steep one‑month drawdown (~37%) if historical analogs play out, yet its longer‑term scenario averages around $186 in December 2026 and roughly $307 by 2030, rating QCOM a “Strong Buy” on technical grounds.

The contradiction between these models is the point: forecast dispersion is high, and none of these should be mistaken for fate. They mainly tell you how wildly assumptions about AI and macro can swing modeled outcomes.

4. Sector and regulatory news: Nvidia, export controls and AI competition

The competitive landscape for AI chips shifted again this week:

• Reuters reports that the U.S. will allow Nvidia’s H200 AI processors to be exported to China, with a 25% fee and security review, and that a similar framework may apply to AMD and Intel. ^[27]

Implications for Qualcomm:

• In the data-center AI race, Qualcomm is still the challenger. Regulatory easing that helps Nvidia and other incumbents could make it harder for QCOM to win share unless it offers significantly better cost/performance in inference workloads.
• On the flip side, continued global AI build‑out keeps overall demand for AI compute elevated, which can be positive for any credible vendor—assuming it can secure design wins.

5. Institutional flows, insider selling and sentiment splits

Heading into December 10:

• Institutions: Large funds are both adding and trimming, with net ownership still high and big players on both sides of the trade. ^[28]
• Insiders: Sales from top executives over the past six months feed a narrative that management is taking money off the table after a solid run. ^[29]
• Analysts:
  • Many see QCOM as a reasonable AI value play with upside toward the low‑$190s or higher. TechStock²+1
  • Others, like Wedbush via MarketWatch, warn it may be an “AI loser” if its AI data‑center and PC plans fail to scale. ^[30]

That split is exactly why volatility around events like the Fed, earnings, or big AI customer announcements can be sharp: the bull and bear cases are both well‑developed and well‑funded.

Key Risks and Questions for Investors

Based on Tuesday’s coverage, several themes should be on the radar beyond the next 24 hours: TechStock²+2TechStock²+2

• Smartphone concentration:
  • Premium handset demand is recovering, but Qualcomm is still heavily reliant on a handful of OEMs (Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi). The planned modem share loss at Samsung’s Galaxy S26 adds uncertainty.
• AI execution risk:
  • The AI200/AI250 and related racks must translate from headline wins (like Humain) into repeatable, scaled deployments, ideally with a major U.S. hyperscaler.
• Regulation and China exposure:
  • Large revenue exposure to Chinese OEMs, and scrutiny around deals like Autotalks, keep regulatory risk front and center.
• M&A integration:
  • Alphawave, Autotalks and smaller AI/software acquisitions need smooth integration to deliver the promised synergies in data center and automotive.
• Valuation & expectations:
  • With QCOM now trading at a premium to its pre‑AI slump valuations and with a wide distribution of analyst and quant forecasts, even modest disappointments in AI adoption or margins could trigger pullbacks.

Bottom Line: What Tuesday’s After-Hours Action Signals for Wednesday

As of the close and immediate after‑hours session on December 9, 2025, Qualcomm stock is:

• Trading around $176, near recent highs but below its 52‑week peak above $200. ^[31]
• Enjoying positive but not euphoric momentum, with a three‑day winning streak and steadily rising two‑week trend. ^[32]
• Sitting at the crossroads of:
  • A bullish AI diversification and automotive/IoT growth narrative, and
  • A skeptical “AI loser” narrative that questions how much value Qualcomm can truly capture vs. Nvidia, AMD and others. ^[33]

For the December 10 open, traders will be watching:

1. The Fed’s decision and tone, which could move all high‑beta tech, including QCOM. ^[34]
2. Whether QCOM holds support in the mid‑$170s or tests resistance around $180, as suggested by technical models. ^[35]
3. Any follow‑through headlines on AI data‑center customers, PC design wins, or regulatory developments that might push sentiment toward either the AI‑winner or AI‑loser camp.

Nothing in Tuesday’s after‑hours tape screams panic or euphoria. Instead, Qualcomm enters Wednesday as a high‑expectation AI‑and‑connectivity play with a decent dividend, a lot of fans, a few loud skeptics, and a macro backdrop that could amplify any surprise in either direction.

References

1. stockinvest.us, 2. finance.yahoo.com, 3. stockinvest.us, 4. stockinvest.us, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. stockinvest.us, 12. stockinvest.us, 13. www.tradingview.com, 14. www.quiverquant.com, 15. www.quiverquant.com, 16. www.quiverquant.com, 17. www.quiverquant.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.roboticstomorrow.com, 21. www.marketwatch.com, 22. seekingalpha.com, 23. www.nasdaq.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. 247wallst.com, 26. stockinvest.us, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.quiverquant.com, 30. www.marketwatch.com, 31. finance.yahoo.com, 32. stockinvest.us, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. 247wallst.com, 35. stockinvest.us