Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) closed Tuesday, December 9, 2025, just below record territory, extending a powerful AI‑driven rally and drawing fresh attention from institutions, analysts and technical traders ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. market open.
Below is a full breakdown of how the stock traded after the bell, what moved it on December 9, and the key levels and narratives to watch before the market opens on December 10, 2025.
Lam Research stock recap for December 9, 2025
- Closing price: Lam Research finished Tuesday at $165.81, up about 1.9% from Monday’s close near $162.74. [1]
- Intraday range: Shares traded roughly between $160.75 and $166.36 during the session, reflecting a ~3% intraday swing. [2]
- Volume: Around 8 million shares changed hands, modestly below typical daily volume near the 8 million mark, indicating solid but not euphoric trading activity. [3]
- After‑hours action: By about 01:15 UTC on December 10 (around 8:15 p.m. ET Tuesday), LRCX was still trading around $165.8, essentially flat versus the close, suggesting no major post‑bell catalyst. [4]
- 52‑week range and trend: Over the last year, the stock has climbed from the low‑to‑mid‑$50s to near its all‑time high around $167.15, putting LRCX up roughly 110–125% year‑on‑year, depending on the data source. [5]
On a day when the Dow and S&P 500 slipped modestly and the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield edged toward 4.19%, chip names were notable outperformers. Lam Research joined Micron, ON Semiconductor, ASML, Nvidia and AMD in closing higher, reinforcing its status as one of the market’s core AI‑infrastructure plays. [6]
Why LRCX moved: three key drivers on December 9
1. Strong recent earnings and higher guidance still in focus
Investors are still digesting Lam’s latest quarterly results, released on October 22 for the quarter ended September 28, 2025:
- Revenue: About $5.32 billion, ahead of consensus estimates around $5.23 billion and up roughly 27–28% year‑on‑year. [7]
- Earnings per share (EPS):$1.26, beating forecasts of $1.22 and up sharply from about $0.86 in the same quarter a year earlier. [8]
- Profitability: Net margin is close to 30%, and return on equity above 60%, underlining the company’s leverage to high‑end etch and deposition tools. [9]
Crucially, Lam guided to Q2 FY2026 EPS of roughly $1.05–$1.25, which—paired with the revenue beat—has helped re‑anchor the bull case that the company is entering a multi‑year upcycle tied to AI data centers and advanced memory. [10]
That narrative has been reinforced by fresh analyst actions in recent weeks. For example, Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $158 from $137 while keeping an “Equal Weight” rating, and other firms like Berenberg, Oppenheimer, Cantor Fitzgerald and Citigroup have lifted targets into the mid‑ to high‑$100s, often with “buy” or “outperform” labels. [11]
2. Institutional buying vs. insider selling
A big part of Tuesday’s story was who is buying the stock.
New 13F‑style filings summarized by MarketBeat highlight ongoing institutional accumulation: [12]
- AXA S.A. boosted its position by 26% in Q2 to roughly 793,787 shares (about $77 million).
- SVB Wealth LLC disclosed a new position of 28,255 shares, worth around $2.75 million.
- Other funds, including Sava Infond, Empowered Funds and several Canadian and U.S. managers, also added to holdings.
Across these filings, institutional investors now control roughly 84–85% of Lam’s float, a level consistent with its status as a core holding in many AI and semiconductor equipment portfolios. [13]
On the flip side, company insiders have been net sellers over the last 90 days:
- Senior executives, including an SVP and the CFO, sold a combined ~102,600 shares, worth about $15 million, trimming already small personal stakes.
- Insider ownership stands at roughly 0.3% of shares, a relatively low level for a hardware leader but not unusual for a mature, widely held mega‑cap. [14]
For investors heading into Wednesday, that contrast—heavy institutional buying vs. insider profit‑taking—is an important nuance in the sentiment picture.
3. AI chip super‑cycle and sector momentum
Lam Research sits at the heart of the AI infrastructure build‑out. Its etch, deposition and advanced packaging tools are used by foundries like TSMC, Samsung and Intel to manufacture leading‑edge logic and memory chips. [15]
Key structural points highlighted in fresh analysis from Finimize and others: [16]
- Around 31% of recent revenue comes from China, with Korea and Taiwan contributing roughly 24% each, leaving Lam exposed both to global AI demand and to geopolitical risk.
- Management sees revenue rising from about $16.2 billion in 2024 to $25–28 billion by 2028, powered by AI data centers, 3‑nanometer and 2‑nanometer nodes, and high‑bandwidth memory (HBM).
- Operating margins are running above 33%, return on invested capital above 70%, and the company holds a net cash balance sheet with a free‑cash‑flow yield modestly above the broad market.
Even as bond yields rose on Tuesday and broader indices were mixed, chip stocks again acted as relative winners. A Barchart/TradingView market wrap noted that semiconductor names helped limit losses in the Nasdaq 100 as the 10‑year U.S. yield pressed to fresh multi‑month highs, underscoring how strongly investors are leaning into the AI equipment theme despite macro headwinds. [17]
Fresh analysis landing on December 9: what it says about Lam Research
Finimize: high‑quality AI infrastructure play, but priced for perfection
A new Finimize “Stock Snapshot” published on December 9 frames Lam Research as a high‑quality compounder riding the AI chip wave, but warns that much of the good news may already be embedded in the share price. [18]
Key takeaways:
- Over the 12 months to December 9, Lam’s stock delivered a total return around 120–130%, versus low‑teens gains for the S&P 500. [19]
- Sales grew roughly 12% over the past year, beating the broader market, and management is openly targeting double‑digit compound growth through 2028. [20]
- Lam’s operating margin (~33%), ROIC (~72%), and net‑cash position stand well above market averages. [21]
- On valuation, Lam trades near 28× forward earnings and an EV/sales multiple around 8×, compared with its own five‑year average closer to 5.7× and a market average near 4.5×. [22]
Finimize’s conclusion: Lam looks like a core AI‑infrastructure winner, but at a premium multiple that leaves less room for disappointment if chipmakers pull back on capex or geopolitics pinch China‑related demand.
Simply Wall St: slight overvaluation after a big run
A December 8 valuation check from Simply Wall St arrives at a fair value estimate near $160.30 for Lam Research, putting Tuesday’s close a few percent above their modeled fair value. [23]
Highlights from their framework:
- Lam’s share price has climbed more than 50% over the past 90 days and roughly 260% over three years, illustrating the strength of the trend. [24]
- Analysts in their sample expect Lam’s earnings to reach about $6.7 billion (EPS ≈ $5.68) by 2028, up from roughly $5.4 billion today, though there’s a wide range between bullish and bearish scenarios. [25]
- On an absolute basis the stock looks a bit overvalued, but its P/E of ~35× is actually slightly below the U.S. semiconductor peer group average (around 38×) and some more richly‑valued tool makers. [26]
In short: Simply Wall St sees Lam as a quality name priced for perfection, where further upside may depend on continued earnings beats or a bigger‑than‑expected AI spending wave.
Zacks: Lam still screens as a top growth stock
Zacks Equity Research, in a December 5 note, highlighted Lam Research as an “Incredible Growth Stock,” assigning it a Growth Score of A and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). [27]
Their quantitative factors include:
- Projected EPS growth of about 15.7% this year, versus an industry average closer to 6%.
- Year‑over‑year cash‑flow growth above 30%, well ahead of peers, and a multi‑year cash‑flow growth rate around 16–17% versus an industry near 9%. [28]
- Consensus EPS estimates for the current year have risen by roughly 1.5% over the past month, a positive revision trend Zacks views as supportive for near‑term performance. [29]
That backdrop explains why many growth‑oriented screeners still flag Lam as attractive despite its big run.
StockInvest.us: short‑term uptrend, but near resistance into Wednesday’s open
Technical research platform StockInvest.us updated its Lam Research forecast after Tuesday’s close, keeping LRCX rated as a “Buy candidate” but downgrading it from a prior “Strong Buy” as the stock inches closer to resistance. [30]
Their model notes:
- LRCX has risen in 8 of the last 10 sessions and gained about 10% over the past two weeks, closing Tuesday at $165.80, up 1.88% on the day. [31]
- The stock sits in the middle of a wide, strong rising trend and is expected, statistically, to have a good chance of reaching between $188 and $229 over the next three months—though with the usual caveats around model uncertainty. [32]
- Short‑term support is flagged around $150.38, with additional volume support in the low‑$130s, while the nearest resistance sits near $166–167, close to the recent all‑time high of about $167.15. [33]
- For Wednesday, December 10, their system projects a “fair” opening price around $164.38 and a potential intraday trading band between roughly $162.7 and $168.9, a ±3.9% swing. [34]
StockInvest’s conclusion: the trend and signals remain positive, but with the stock pressing against resistance and volume lagging slightly, the short‑term risk/reward looks less favorable than it did earlier in the run.
TechStock² & TradingView: AI tailwinds and new analyst targets
A detailed December 9 piece from TechStock² pulls together many of these themes: Lam trading near record highs after triple‑digit 12‑month gains, a wave of institutional inflows, and a cluster of analyst price targets stretching from the mid‑$130s to $200. TechStock²+2MarketBeat+2
Separately, a TradingView/StockStory note earlier this month highlighted Lam’s sharp reaction to Morgan Stanley’s target hike to $158, noting that shares briefly jumped nearly 3% intraday on the news and are up more than 100% year‑to‑date, trading close to their 52‑week high. [35]
Together, these commentaries capture the current consensus: the business is firing, the chart is strong, and the main debate now is about price, not about Lam’s strategic relevance.
Trefis: rally driven largely by multiple expansion
A Trefis breakdown of Lam’s three‑year move shows how much of the stock’s surge has come from investors paying a higher multiple for its earnings, rather than from fundamentals alone. [36]
Between December 8, 2024 and December 8, 2025:
- The stock price climbed from about $75.66 to $162.74, a gain of roughly 115%.
- Over the same period, revenues rose about 26% and net margins improved modestly.
- The P/E multiple expanded from roughly 24× to more than 35×, accounting for the majority of the share‑price increase.
Trefis reaches a similar conclusion when looking back to 2022: Lam’s fundamentals improved, but valuation re‑rating has been the dominant driver—something bulls and bears will keep in mind heading into any bout of volatility.
Fundamentals in focus ahead of December 10
1. Earnings momentum and AI exposure
Investors heading into Wednesday’s session are still working through what Lam’s results and strategy mean for the next leg of the AI hardware build‑out:
- The latest quarter’s 27–28% revenue growth and EPS beat suggest that AI‑related wafer‑fab equipment spending remains strong, even with macro uncertainty. [37]
- Lam is expanding its U.S. R&D and manufacturing footprint—for example, opening a new, $65 million building at its Tualatin, Oregon campus as part of a multi‑year plan to support what it sees as a future $1 trillion semiconductor industry. [38]
- A new Lam blog post published December 9 highlights the company’s role in advanced packaging, including tools for HBM stacking, through‑silicon via (TSV) etch, copper deposition and plasma dicing—all critical to AI chips that need more bandwidth and lower power. [39]
That combination—short‑term earnings strength plus long‑term AI and advanced packaging positioning—is central to why many analysts still view Lam as a structural winner.
2. Valuation and technical setup
Going into the December 10 open, Lam’s valuation and chart are tightly intertwined:
- Various data providers peg Lam’s trailing P/E around 35–36×, with forward P/E near 28× and an EV/sales multiple around 8×—well above its historical averages, but only modestly higher than the broader U.S. semiconductor group. [40]
- The stock is trading just a few dollars below its all‑time high of about $167.15, with short‑term resistance identified in the $166–167 area and more substantial support down near the low‑$150s. [41]
- Technical services like TradingView and StockInvest point to Lam as a “buy” or “strong buy” on multi‑time‑frame indicators, but note that volatility is elevated (beta around 1.8–2.0) and daily swings near 3% are common. [42]
In practical terms, that means small macro surprises or sector headlines can move the stock quickly, in either direction.
3. Macro and policy watch: bond yields, Fed, China controls
Lam Research doesn’t trade in a vacuum. Heading into Wednesday’s open, three macro threads stand out: [43]
- Interest rates and the Fed:
- The 10‑year U.S. yield hovered around 4.17–4.19% on Tuesday as markets priced in further easing in 2026 but stayed cautious in the near term.
- Tech and AI hardware names like LRCX, which trade on high multiples and long‑duration cash flows, are particularly sensitive to sharp moves in yields.
- U.S.–China export controls:
- Roughly 31% of Lam’s revenue comes from China, making it more exposed than many peers if export rules tighten further.
- Lam’s own press releases and risk disclosures emphasize trade regulations, supply‑chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions as material risks.
- CHIPS Act and regional incentives:
- Lam continues to invest in U.S. and global capacity in anticipation of expanded semiconductor demand and government incentives.
- Upcoming CHIPS Act funding decisions in early 2026 are seen as potential catalysts for both Lam and its customers.
What to watch at the December 10, 2025 open
Here’s a concise pre‑market checklist for Lam Research watchers on Wednesday:
- Price vs. resistance:
- Tuesday’s close at $165.81 leaves LRCX just below its all‑time high around $167.15. Traders will be watching whether the stock breaks through and holds above that zone, or stalls and reverses. [44]
- Opening print and intraday range:
- StockInvest’s models point to a “fair” opening level near $164.38 and a potential range between roughly $162.7 and $168.9 for the day—about a ±3.9% swing. Those aren’t guarantees, but they frame the expected volatility. [45]
- Volume vs. recent days:
- A push through the $166–167 area on stronger‑than‑average volume (above the ~8 million‑share norm) would lend more credibility to a breakout. A light‑volume pop would look more fragile. [46]
- Sector and macro tone:
- Keep an eye on peer moves in Applied Materials, ASML, KLA, Nvidia, AMD and Micron, as well as the 10‑year Treasury yield and any new messaging from the Federal Reserve. In recent sessions, Lam has tended to trade with the broader AI‑hardware basket and inversely with sharp yield spikes. [47]
- Flows and headlines:
- More 13F filings or fresh analyst notes—especially any changes to “buy” ratings or the upper end of price targets (now reaching $190–200 at some firms)—could influence sentiment at the margin. [48]
- No scheduled Lam‑specific events today:
- There is no earnings release or major company‑specific event scheduled for December 10. The next major catalyst is likely Lam’s next quarterly report in late January or early February 2026, plus any updates tied to export controls or AI‑driven capex plans from its largest customers. [49]
Bottom line
As of the close on December 9, 2025, Lam Research is:
- Near all‑time highs, after a year of explosive gains.
- Backed by strong earnings, upbeat guidance and heavy institutional ownership.
- Viewed positively by most analysts and quant models, but trading at elevated valuations where multiple compression is a real risk.
Heading into the December 10 open, the central question is whether LRCX can convert AI enthusiasm and recent earnings strength into a sustained breakout above its prior highs, or whether higher rates, rich multiples and technical resistance trigger a period of consolidation.
References
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