Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) heads into Wednesday’s session trading just below recent record highs, after a mild pullback in Tuesday’s regular and after-hours trade. With Wall Street obsessed with AI infrastructure, Fed policy and export controls to China, AMAT sits right where all three storylines intersect.
Here’s what happened after the bell on December 9, 2025 – and what investors should know before the December 10 U.S. market open.
How AMAT Traded on December 9: A Quiet Dip After a Big Run
Applied Materials cooled slightly on Tuesday after a powerful multi-week rally:
- Regular session: AMAT slipped about 0.4% to $267.14 at the close, down from $268.16 on Monday. Intraday, the stock traded between $264.73 and $268.71 on volume just over 4 million shares. [1]
- After hours: In extended trading, AMAT hovered in the mid-$266s, roughly 0.3–0.4% below the official close, according to data from several platforms. [2]
That’s essentially a pause after a furious move higher: over the past three months, AMAT has gained around 70%, and roughly 65% year-to-date, making it one of the standout semiconductor equipment names in 2025. [3]
Meanwhile, the broader market ended the day in a holding pattern ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final rate decision of the year:
- S&P 500: -0.1%
- Dow Jones: -0.4%
- Nasdaq Composite: +0.1% [4]
So AMAT’s slight slide was broadly in line with a cautious, Fed-watching market rather than a stock-specific panic.
Short-Term Signals Before the Dec. 10 Open
Two quick data points traders will care about heading into Wednesday’s bell:
- Pre-market indication: As of the latest quotes, AMAT’s pre-market price is around $265.5, about 1% below Tuesday’s close, on light volume. [5]
- Model-based “fair” open: One technical-forecast service pegs AMAT’s “predicted fair opening price” for Dec. 10 at about $266.84, essentially flat to slightly softer versus Tuesday’s close. [6]
Taken together, the setup points to a modestly negative or flat open, consistent with:
- A stock that has run very hard into year-end
- A market that’s twitchy about the Fed
- No fresh company-specific bombshells overnight
In other words: no obvious “event shock” on the tape, just a momentum name catching its breath.
Why AMAT Is Still in the Spotlight: AI, Memory, and Foundry Spending
The reason everyone keeps talking about AMAT is simple: AI needs fabs, and fabs need AMAT.
1. Record earnings and AI-heavy backlog
In mid-November, Applied Materials reported record annual revenue and EPS for fiscal 2025, beating both earnings and revenue expectations (Q4 EPS about $2.17 vs. $2.11 expected; revenue about $6.8 billion vs. $6.68 billion expected). [7]
Management’s guidance and commentary emphasized:
- Strong demand for leading-edge foundry and logic (advanced nodes used in AI/data-center chips)
- Continued strength in DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) tools – the memory workhorses of AI training and inference
- An expectation that fiscal 2026 accelerates in the second half, as new fab capacity ramps up [8]
That story has resonated with the street. Over the last week, multiple outlets have described AMAT as riding an “AI chip boom” and highlighted it as a key beneficiary of expanding data-center and memory infrastructure. [9]
2. TD Cowen’s “Top 2026 Idea” – and the DRAM super-cycle
On December 4, TD Cowen raised its price target on AMAT to $315 and tagged the stock as a “top 2026 idea.” Analyst Krish Sankar argued that:
- Roughly half of AMAT’s customers are exposed to DRAM and leading-edge foundries, both in powerful up-cycles driven by AI. [10]
- The DRAM wafer-fab-equipment (WFE) market is on track for a fourth straight year of growth, an “unprecedented” pattern for what is usually a boom-bust segment. [11]
This framing matters for Wednesday’s trade: if investors keep buying the “memory + AI” thesis, pullbacks toward support levels can attract dip-buyers rather than panicked sellers.
3. The China and export-control overhang
It’s not all sunshine and wafers, though. In mid-November, U.S. export curbs and tighter controls on China-exposed equipment spending forced Applied Materials to temper its China outlook. The company warned of reduced China-related spending next year, and the stock dropped several percent when that hit the tape. [12]
Export policy remains a key headline risk to watch before and after the open, especially as:
- Washington tweaks AI-chip export rules (for example, the evolving debate over Nvidia’s H200 exports to “approved” customers in China). [13]
- Lawmakers scrutinize Chinese semiconductor equipment imports for CHIPS Act recipients. [14]
4. Cost discipline: layoffs to streamline operations
In late October, Applied Materials announced it would lay off about 4% of its workforce (≈1,400 jobs) to “simplify operations” and cut costs. [15]
For pre-market on Dec. 10, the layoffs themselves are old news – but they do reinforce:
- Management’s willingness to defend margins
- The idea that higher earnings may come not just from AI demand, but also from operational efficiency
Fresh Analyst Ratings, Targets and Forecasts as of December 9
Street consensus: Still firmly in “buy” territory
Across multiple platforms, the consensus view on AMAT remains bullish:
- Investing.com: 32 analysts, consensus “Buy,” with 23 Buy, 1 Sell, 8–10 Hold (depending on classification). Average 12-month price target ~$248, with a range from about $180 (low) to $315 (high). [16]
- Public.com: 23 analysts, overall “Buy” rating and an average target around $231. [17]
- MarketBeat: consensus “Moderate Buy,” average target roughly $235, with commentary highlighting recent upgrades and a cluster of targets in the mid-$200s. [18]
There’s an amusing little tension here: the average quoted targets sit below the current price around $267, meaning that on paper the stock screens as overvalued vs. consensus, even as some high-conviction analysts push targets into the 285–315 range.
High-conviction target hikes: 280s to 300s
Over the last week or so, several banks have sharply raised their AMAT targets:
- TD Cowen: PT lifted from $260 to $315 (Buy). [19]
- KeyBanc: PT raised from $240 to $285 with an Overweight rating. [20]
- Morgan Stanley: PT increased to around $273, with an Overweight stance. [21]
- UBS: Upgraded AMAT to Buy and moved its target up to $285. [22]
- Daiwa: Lifted its target to $265 but kept a Neutral rating – a signal that not everyone is comfortable chasing the recent run-up. [23]
So while static “average” targets look conservative, the direction of travel is up. The freshest research is mostly about playing catch-up with a stock that has outrun older spreadsheets.
Momentum vs. valuation: the near-term debate
Recent research has basically split into two (equally loud) camps:
- Pro-momentum: Zacks just tagged AMAT as a “strong momentum stock,” driven by robust price action and earnings revisions. [24]
- Valuation worriers: Other analyses question whether AMAT has “run too far” after a 60+% YTD rally, flagging a relatively high earnings multiple and a 2/6 score on some valuation checklists. [25]
For Wednesday’s open, that tug-of-war will likely show up in:
- Dip-buyers stepping in on modest weakness
- Short-term traders trimming or hedging into any pop toward the recent 52-week high around $273–274 [26]
Big Money Flows: Institutional Buyers Loading Up
One under-the-hood dynamic that might support AMAT on any early-morning weakness: institutional buying.
On December 9, MarketBeat reported two notable holdings updates:
- State Street Corp increased its AMAT stake, adding to an already large position and contributing to institutional ownership north of 80% of the float. [27]
- Investment Management Corp of Ontario boosted its holdings by 65.7% in Q2 to more than 70,000 shares, worth roughly $12.9 million at the time of the filing. [28]
These filings don’t move the pre-market quote by themselves, but they reinforce a narrative that “real money” investors still see AMAT as a core AI infrastructure holding, not a fleeting meme trade.
Technical Backdrop: A Hot Stock That’s Cooling, Not Crashing
Several technical and quant services paint a picture of strong but stretched momentum:
- Over the last 7 trading days, AMAT has delivered gains of more than 20%, vastly outpacing the S&P 500. [29]
- One technical-forecast site notes that while short-term signals are mixed, the major trend since late November is up, with price up nearly 20% over that span and only brief pullbacks. [30]
In that context, Tuesday’s small drop and a soft pre-market quote around $265–266 look more like normal consolidation than a trend break.
Levels traders may focus on before and after the open:
- Near-term support: The $260–265 zone, which captures recent lows and sits just below Tuesday’s intraday bottom. [31]
- Resistance: The recent high around $273–274 from the first week of December. A breakout above that region could re-ignite the AI-momentum chase; repeated failures there could invite profit-taking. [32]
Macro and Sector Catalysts to Watch on December 10
Before the bell on Wednesday, AMAT traders will mostly be watching macro and sector signals rather than company-specific headlines:
- Federal Reserve decision and commentary
Markets spent Dec. 9 hovering as investors waited for the Fed’s final policy decision of 2025. Indices ended mixed, with the S&P 500 just 0.1% off its highs. [33]- A more dovish tone could support high-multiple growth names like AMAT.
- A hawkish surprise or tough-talk on inflation could pressure richly valued tech leaders.
- AI-chip and semiconductor news flow
The sector remains hypersensitive to AI and export headlines. For example, the evolving story around U.S. rules on Nvidia’s H200 exports to China continues to shape sentiment around AI-related chip suppliers and tool makers. [34] - Peer performance
Moves in Nvidia, Micron, Lam Research, KLA and broader semiconductor ETFs (like SMH) often feed directly into AMAT’s beta. A strong overnight bid in those names can offset a weak pre-market print in AMAT, and vice versa. [35] - Any follow-up on export controls or China fab spending
Given November’s pullback on export-control concerns, any fresh commentary from Washington, Beijing or major foundry customers can quickly change the risk calculus. [36]
What It All Means for AMAT Into the Open
Summing up the after-the-bell picture on Dec. 9 and the setup for Dec. 10:
- Price action: Slight decline in regular and after-hours trading after a very strong run, with indications of a small further dip before the open.
- Fundamentals: Record earnings, AI-driven demand for memory and leading-edge foundries, and cost-cutting via layoffs give bulls plenty to work with.
- Sentiment: Consensus remains Buy/Moderate Buy, with a cluster of fresh targets between $265–315, even though older averages still lag the stock price.
- Risks: Export controls, China exposure, and valuation are the primary bear arguments – and they’ll loom larger if the Fed leans hawkish or if AI optimism cools.
- Flows: Institutional ownership is high and still rising, suggesting any sharp sell-off is more likely to attract strategic buyers than to trigger a mass exodus, barring new negative news.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.trefis.com, 4. www.barchart.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. stockinvest.us, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. stockanalysis.com, 10. www.marketwatch.com, 11. www.marketwatch.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.marketscreener.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. public.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. finviz.com, 20. uk.investing.com, 21. www.marketscreener.com, 22. www.marketscreener.com, 23. www.marketscreener.com, 24. www.zacks.com, 25. finance.yahoo.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.trefis.com, 30. intellectia.ai, 31. stockanalysis.com, 32. stockanalysis.com, 33. www.investopedia.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. stockanalysis.com, 36. www.reuters.com
