Sadiq Khan Confirms 5.8% Above-Inflation Tube Fare Rise for March 2026 Despite National Rail Freeze

By Staff Reporter – December 10, 2025

Londoners are being warned to brace for a sharp increase in the cost of getting around the capital, after Mayor Sadiq Khan confirmed that Tube and other Transport for London (TfL) fares will rise by an average of 5.8% in March 2026 – an increase that will outstrip inflation and go ahead despite a nationwide freeze on regulated rail fares . ^[1]

The decision means that passengers on the London Underground, Elizabeth line, London Overground and Travelcards face steeper costs from the spring, even as commuters elsewhere in England benefit from the first national rail fares freeze in three decades. ^[2]

What has Sadiq Khan announced?

In an interview with the Evening Standard and subsequent coverage by other outlets, Sadiq Khan confirmed that TfL fares are expected to rise by 5.8% next March , in line with a funding deal struck with the Government earlier this year. ^[3]

Key points of the plan include: ^[4]

Average 5.8% rise across Tube and London rail services operated by TfL
No freeze for Tube, Elizabeth line, London Overground or Travelcards, despite the national rail freeze
Bus fares may be treated differently , with City Hall signaling they could again be kept lower than other modes

The increase stems from a £2.2 billion multi-year capital funding deal agreed in June’s spending review. As part of that deal, TfL is required to raise fares by Retail Prices Index (RPI) inflation plus one percentage point (RPI+1) every year until the end of the decade – a condition that effectively locks in above-inflation fare rises through the 2020s. ^[5]

RPI in July 2025 was 4.8% , so adding one percentage point produces the 5.8% working assumption TfL has used in its budget for 2026/27. ^[6]

Why are Tube fares rising while rail tickets are frozen?

The contrast between London’s fare rises and the national rail freeze is at the heart of the political row now erupting at City Hall.

In November, Chancellor Rachel Reeves confirmed that regulated rail fares in England will be frozen from March 2026 , the first such freeze in 30 years, saving some regular commuters hundreds of pounds a year. ^[7]

However, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander has made clear that this national policy does not extend to city networks such as TfL , and that London’s separate funding package assumes RPI+1 fare rises to help pay for major infrastructure works. ^[8]

Alexander has described his discussions with the Mayor as a “grown-up conversation”, arguing that with £2.2bn of Government capital funding on the table , it is “right” that Londoners contribute via higher fares to the cost of new Piccadilly line and DLR trains, as well as the proposed DLR extension to Thamesmead . ^[9]

Khan, for his part, has called the condition “not unreasonable” and “fair”, saying ministers are “contributing enormously” and expecting TfL to do its share. ^[10]

How much more will Londoners actually pay?

The 5.8% figure is an average used for budgeting. Because TfL fares generally change in 5p or 10p steps , some tickets will rise slightly more, and some slightly less, than the headline percentage. ^[11]

Indicative examples from TfL modeling cited in several reports include: ^[12]

Zone 1–2 peak Tube journey
- Current price: 3.50
- From March 2026 (expected): £3.70
Zone 1–2 off-peak Tube journey
- Current price: 2.90 pounds
- From March 2026 (expected): £3.10
Zone 1–6 peak journey (eg Uxbridge to Baker Street)
- Current price: 5.80 pounds
- From March 2026 (expected): £6.15
Zone 1–6 off-peak journey
- Current price: 3.80 pounds
- From March 2026 (expected): £4.05

A typical £4 Tube fare could rise to around £4.25 , according to estimates cited by MoneyWeek and other outlets. ^[13]

The exact fare table for 2026 is due to be published shortly before Christmas , once the Mayor signs off the final package. ^[14]

Who will be affected – and who might be spared?

The increase will hit a broad range of London passengers: ^[15]

London Underground : all standard pay-as-you-go and paper fares
Elizabeth line : TfL-run services across London and into the Home Counties
London Overground : orbital and commuter routes in and around Greater London
Travelcards : zonal tickets valid across TfL and national rail in the capital

Because Travelcard prices are calculated from both TfL and national rail fare assumptions , any rise in TfL’s share is likely to translate into higher Travelcard prices, even though national rail is frozen. ^[16]

By contrast, bus fares may not rise by the full 5.8%. Khan has repeatedly signaled that he sees buses as the most affordable mode for lower-income Londoners and has a track record of freezing or limiting rises in bus prices even when other modes go up. ^[17]

The ‘fairness’ row: London singled out?

The announcement has reigned a fierce debate over whether Londoners are being treated unfairly compared with the rest of the country.

In an earlier explainer on the rail freeze, Liberal Democrat London Assembly member Hina Bokhari warned that if ministers froze fares “everywhere except London”, it would feel like a “punishment beating” for the capital – arguing that Londoners already face higher living costs and deeper levels of poverty. ^[18]

Green Party Assembly leader Caroline Russell welcomed the national rail freeze but said it was “concerning” that TfL might still be required to raise fares above inflation, warning that transport costs must not become a barrier to people’s daily lives. ^[19]

More recently, Conservative shadow London minister Gareth Bacon has accused the Government and City Hall together of inflicting a “double whammy” on the capital – higher taxes to help fund the national rail freeze, and higher Underground fares to pay for TfL’s investment programme. ^[20]

Liberal Democrat MP Luke Taylor, speaking as the scale of the 5.8% rise became clear, said many Londoners rely on the Tube for their daily commute and warned that such increases would “take chunks” out of pay packets during an ongoing cost-of-living crisis. ^[21]

Khan, however, insists that he is bound by the terms of the funding settlement , stressing that cities like Manchester and Liverpool are also responsible for their own local fares and that the Government never promised to freeze prices on devolved urban networks. ^[22]

What will the extra money fund?

Both the Mayor and the Government argue that the RPI+1 fare formula is directly linked to upgrading London’s transport network .

According to details from the spending review and subsequent briefings: ^[23]

New Piccadilly line trains are due to enter service from 2026, replacing aging rolling stock
New DLR trains will boost capacity and reliability on the Docklands Light Railway
Planning and early work is due to begin on the DLR extension to Thamesmead , improving links to a part of south-east London that has long suffered from poor rail connections
Further investment is earmarked for road infrastructure and schemes such as the part-pedestrianisation of Oxford Street

On top of fares, TfL expects to generate more than £1 billion next year from motorists , through charges such as Ulez, the congestion charge, and upcoming tolls on the Silvertown and Blackwall tunnels – revenue that will also help fund capital projects. ^[24]

When will we know the final fares – and what should passengers expect?

While the 5.8% average rise is now effectively baked into TfL’s budget, individual ticket prices and caps are still being finalized. The Mayor traditionally confirms the full fare table just before Christmas , giving passengers a few months’ notice before changes take effect in March. ^[25]

Analysts and campaigners will be watching closely to see:

How bus fares are treated , and whether they again rise more slowly than other modes
Whether daily and weekly caps on pay-as-you-go travel are increased, which can push up costs for regular users even if some single fares look modest
How Travelcard prices are set in light of the rail freeze, and whether the Government agrees compensation to protect TfL’s share of revenue ^[26]

For now, one thing is clear: from March 2026, traveling by Tube and other TfL rail services will become significantly more expensive , even as many commuters elsewhere in England see their season ticket costs stay flat for the first time in a generation.