Note: Prices and moves referenced below are based primarily on data and commentary available around the U.S. pre‑market session on December 10, 2025, and may change once regular trading begins. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.
Key takeaways
- AI chip leaders Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) are modestly lower to flat in early pre‑market trading as investors digest Donald Trump’s surprise decision to let some AI chip exports to China resume under a new fee regime. [1]
- AI infrastructure names Vertiv (VRT) and Applied Digital (APLD) are in focus after sharp recent moves, a high‑profile downgrade for Vertiv and split analyst views on how sustainable the AI data‑center boom really is. [2]
- Palantir (PLTR) is among the notable AI software gainers in pre‑market trading, even as a fresh Motley Fool/Nasdaq piece highlights Wall Street forecasts that imply as much as 72% downside from here. [3]
- Macro backdrop: U.S. equity futures are little changed ahead of a pivotal Federal Reserve meeting, while a new BlackRock outlook argues AI will remain the primary driver of U.S. stock returns through 2026. [4]
- Global AI capex continues to surge, with Microsoft announcing a record $17.5 billion investment in India’s cloud and AI infrastructure, underscoring the structural tailwind behind data‑center and chip stocks. [5]
Macro setup: quiet futures, loud AI narrative
U.S. stock index futures are roughly flat early Wednesday as traders brace for a key Federal Reserve rate decision and watch upcoming tech earnings from names like Oracle and Adobe. Reports from outlets such as Yahoo Finance and Investing.com describe a cautious tone: futures are wavering near record levels after a choppy Tuesday, with the AI trade front and center in discussions about stretched valuations. [6]
At the same time, BlackRock’s latest two‑year outlook frames artificial intelligence as the dominant driver of U.S. equity performance through 2026. The asset manager highlights three big themes:
- AI infrastructure spending is now large enough that “micro is macro,” influencing the broader economy.
- Companies are borrowing more to fund AI projects, creating opportunities in public and private credit.
- Traditional hedges like long‑duration Treasuries may not diversify portfolios as well in an AI‑centric market, a “diversification mirage” that encourages more active, pro‑risk positioning in equities. [7]
Against this backdrop, the AI complex heads into the December 10 session with moderate pre‑market moves but intense narrative pressure: investors are trying to reconcile eye‑watering valuations with an AI spending cycle that big institutions now view as macro‑critical rather than just thematic.
AI chip leaders: Nvidia and AMD digest Trump’s China move
Nvidia (NVDA): Slight pre‑market dip after China export relief
In early pre‑market trading around 4:22 a.m. ET, Nvidia shares were quoted near $184.70, a small decline of about 0.15% from Tuesday’s close around $184.97. [8]
The move comes a day after Reuters reported that President Donald Trump will allow Nvidia’s H200 AI accelerators to be sold to “approved” buyers in China, but only if the company pays a 25% fee on those exports. [9]
Key points from that report:
- The decision partially relaxes a ban on shipping advanced AI chips to China and will also apply to rival AI chip firms AMD and Intel, according to Trump’s comments. [10]
- Nvidia rallied about 1.7% in Tuesday’s pre‑market session on the headline, but closed slightly lower as traders weighed the longer‑term impact. [11]
- Morningstar analysts say the rule change creates a path to meaningful future AI revenue from China but warn that Washington could reverse course again, while Beijing is still pushing domestic chip alternatives. [12]
Separately, Nvidia is also in the spotlight after a major revamp of its CUDA platform, its core software stack for GPU computing. A Barchart analysis published Tuesday asks whether the new CUDA features are enough to shift the stock after a huge multi‑year run, noting that NVDA closed around $184.97 on the day, down roughly 0.3%. [13]
Put together, today’s modest pre‑market weakness looks less like panic and more like digestion: investors are weighing incremental China revenue, ongoing software leadership and very high expectations against regulatory risk and valuations.
AMD (AMD): China optionality, rich valuation and a busy news day
AMD heads into Wednesday’s session after a strong recent run and a busy news cycle.
- On December 9, AMD closed at $221.62, up about 0.23% on the day, after trading between roughly $217.91 and $224.84 on more than 25 million shares. [14]
- Pre‑market data from MarketChameleon shows AMD last trading around $219.16 in early pre‑market hours, on about 410,000 shares — lighter than its average pre‑market volume around 1.5 million. [15]
That implies AMD is drifting modestly lower (roughly 1% below Tuesday’s close) as traders reset positions ahead of both macro and company‑specific catalysts.
A detailed after‑hours breakdown from TechStock² (TS2) highlights several drivers investors are watching into today’s open: TechStock²
- Policy tailwind: The same export‑fee framework that benefits Nvidia should allow AMD to resume limited shipments of its MI‑series AI accelerators to China, potentially adding upside to 2026+ revenue if licenses scale. TechStock²+1
- Management tone: CEO Lisa Su has repeatedly argued that AI demand is still in its “early innings” and that bubble fears are overstated relative to the long‑term computing needs she sees. TechStock²
- Fundamentals: AMD’s most recent quarter showed revenue growing roughly mid‑30s percent year over year with an earnings beat, and guidance implies mid‑20s percent growth into Q4—before including any China AI chip revenue. TechStock²
- Valuation and risk: TS2 notes that AMD trades on a trailing P/E around 110 and a forward multiple near 40, with a clean balance sheet but limited margin for error if AI spending or export policy disappoints. TechStock²+1
On the forecast side, analyst aggregators remain upbeat:
- StockAnalysis reports a consensus “Buy” rating from roughly three dozen analysts with an average 12‑month price target near $240, about 8% above recent levels. [16]
For traders, today’s pre‑market softness looks like position squaring after a policy‑driven rally: AMD sits near year‑to‑date highs, but the market is still trying to quantify how much new China revenue the export change really adds.
AI software: Palantir’s pre‑market pop vs. 72% downside warnings
While the hardware giants cool off a bit, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) stands out among AI software names in early trading.
A pre‑market quote page from Public.com shows that as of about 4:30 a.m. ET, Palantir was changing hands around $184.21, up roughly 1.3% versus Tuesday’s close around $181.84. [17]
That early strength comes just as a new article on Nasdaq (syndicated from The Motley Fool) warns that Palantir could fall sharply from these levels:
- The piece notes Palantir shares are up about 140% year to date, while Intel has gained roughly 101%. [18]
- RBC Capital’s Rishi Jaluria has a $50 price target on Palantir, implying about 72% downside from a recent price near $181. [19]
- The article highlights Forrester Research’s view that Palantir is the most capable AI/ML platform, ranked ahead of Google Cloud, AWS and Microsoft Azure, and points to 63% year‑over‑year revenue growth last quarter with non‑GAAP earnings more than doubling. [20]
- The catch: Palantir trades at around 160 times sales, making it the single most expensive stock in the S&P 500 by that metric. Even if the price fell by roughly two‑thirds, it would still sit at the top of the index on a price‑to‑sales basis. [21]
In short, Palantir encapsulates the AI trade’s tension:
- Operationally, it’s executing well and is widely regarded as a leader in enterprise AI and decisioning platforms.
- Valuation‑wise, some Wall Street models say the stock price is far ahead of realistic cash‑flow scenarios.
Today’s pre‑market bounce suggests traders are, at least for now, willing to lean into momentum despite sharp downside forecasts. But the gap between fundamentals and price is exactly what keeps Palantir near the top of the “AI bubble” debate.
AI infrastructure: Vertiv and Applied Digital in the spotlight
Vertiv (VRT): Downgrade drama and pre‑market reset
Vertiv Holdings (VRT), one of the biggest winners of the AI data‑center build‑out, is a major early mover after a stark change in analyst tone.
On Tuesday, Vertiv fell almost 3.9% to about $178.38, trading between roughly $176.54 and $182.50 during the session. Yahoo Finance data shows pre‑market quotes around $178.66 at 4:29 a.m. ET on Wednesday, a modest 0.2% bounce from the close. [22]
A deeper dive from Parameter paints a more nuanced picture:
- Vertiv has surged more than 1,200% over the past several years, and roughly 60%+ over the last six months, as it became a go‑to supplier of power and cooling gear for AI data centers. [23]
- On December 9, Wolfe Research cut its rating from “Outperform” to “Peer Perform”, arguing that the stock had simply run too far and was now trading at a premium to comparable industrial and electrical names. [24]
- Despite the downgrade, other firms like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup still see upside, with price targets in the high‑$190s to low‑$220s range, according to Parameter’s summary of recent research. [25]
On the fundamental side, Vertiv continues to post eye‑catching growth:
- Recent results included roughly 63% earnings‑per‑share growth, driven by demand for high‑density cooling, advanced power systems and next‑generation data‑center architectures built for AI training clusters. [26]
- Vertiv has expanded its liquid‑cooling portfolio, introduced a modular “SmartRun” deployment platform, and aligned an 800‑volt DC architecture with Nvidia’s rack‑scale AI ecosystem, reinforcing its strategic position in AI infrastructure. [27]
Technical signals are mixed:
- Short‑term moving averages have slipped above the current share price, a bearish alignment that often signals cooling momentum.
- Oscillators such as the Williams %R and Commodity Channel Index have moved into oversold territory, hinting that selling pressure may be close to exhaustion.
- Parameter notes key support around $176–$177 and resistance between $185–$190, with the 52‑week high near $202 as a longer‑term ceiling. [28]
Meanwhile, institutional flows remain active. MarketBeat reports show Albar Capital Partners initiating a new VRT position, while First Trust Advisors trimmed but maintained a sizable stake, reinforcing the notion that big investors are rebalancing rather than abandoning the name. [29]
Today’s pre‑market trade therefore looks like a sober re‑rating, not a panic: the AI infrastructure champ is still loved, but the market is now debating how much future AI demand has already been priced in.
Applied Digital (APLD): High‑beta AI landlord at a crossroads
Another name riding the AI data‑center wave is Applied Digital Corporation (APLD), which Parameter describes as “one of the market’s most reactive AI plays” heading into the December 10 session. [30]
Key points from their pre‑market outlook:
- APLD has reinvented itself from a crypto‑mining host into an AI‑focused data‑center landlord with long‑term contracts worth an estimated $16 billion, anchored by its Polaris Forge 1 and Polaris Forge 2 campuses in North Dakota. These projects include large leases with CoreWeave and a major U.S. hyperscaler. [31]
- The stock has rallied more than 270% over the past year, but remains unprofitable as it pours capital into high‑density, liquid‑cooled AI infrastructure. Recent quarterly revenue grew about 84% year over year, yet net losses continue. [32]
- Wall Street’s stance is genuinely split: consensus sits at a “Moderate Buy,” but price targets range from cautious (mid‑$20s) to aggressive (around $40), while the stock has recently traded above the average target. [33]
- Parameter flags heavy insider selling, high leverage, and a beta near 7, meaning the stock can swing several percentage points on relatively modest order flow. Options activity is elevated. [34]
After a noisy session on December 9, APLD closed just under $33, roughly flat in after‑hours even though intraday volatility was intense. Parameter argues that today’s pre‑market tape may effectively “choose a side” — deciding whether the AI data‑center landlord narrative still justifies the speculative premium.
For investors watching the space, APLD is a textbook example of how the AI build‑out can create both huge opportunity and significant execution risk.
Macro AI tailwinds: Microsoft’s India bet and global regulation
Beyond individual tickers, several macro stories today reinforce how deeply AI is being woven into the global economy:
- Microsoft’s $17.5B India investment: The Associated Press reports that Microsoft will invest $17.5 billion over four years to expand cloud and AI infrastructure in India—its largest‑ever commitment in Asia. The plan includes new hyperscale data centers and workforce‑training initiatives, aligning with India’s push to become a global AI and semiconductor hub. [35]
- AI still a “Magnificent Seven” driver: Barchart highlights a Wall Street view that even if there is an AI bubble, certain mega‑caps—particularly Microsoft (MSFT)—are still considered core holdings thanks to their diversified earnings engines and central role in AI software and cloud. MSFT recently traded around $492 with modest gains, according to Barchart’s AI stocks dashboard. [36]
- Regulatory scrutiny intensifies:
- South Korea is moving to require labels on AI‑generated ads starting next year, targeting a rise in misleading promotions using synthetic experts and fake endorsements. [37]
- The EU has opened a new antitrust probe into Google’s AI content practices, examining whether its use of publisher data and training materials for AI models breaches competition rules. [38]
These stories reinforce two big messages for AI investors:
- Capital spending on AI infrastructure remains enormous and global, supporting multi‑year demand for chips, networking gear, and data‑center services.
- Regulation and antitrust risk are rising in parallel, especially for large platforms using data to train foundation models and generate synthetic content.
How today’s pre‑market moves fit the bigger AI picture
Putting it all together, the AI sector’s pre‑market action on December 10, 2025 looks more like a rebalancing day than the start of a new trend:
- Chip titans (NVDA, AMD) are slightly softer after a policy‑driven pop, as traders weigh incremental China revenue against valuation and geopolitical risk. [39]
- AI infrastructure leaders (VRT, APLD) are testing how much enthusiasm remains after massive multi‑year gains, analyst downgrades, and warnings about leverage and volatility. [40]
- AI software high‑flyers (PLTR, and to a degree INTC as an AI turnaround story) face pointed Wall Street calls that their share prices may be significantly ahead of fundamentals. [41]
- Long‑horizon investors, from BlackRock to Microsoft, continue to allocate huge sums of capital to AI, signaling they view the technology as a structural driver of profits and productivity well beyond the current rate‑cut cycle. [42]
For anyone trading or investing around AI stocks today, a few practical themes stand out:
- Watch the Fed and rates: High‑multiple AI names are particularly sensitive to changes in discount rates and growth expectations. A more hawkish‑than‑expected Fed outcome could pressure valuations, even if AI fundamentals remain strong. [43]
- Differentiate within AI: The pre‑market tape shows clear splits—between profitable mega‑caps with diversified businesses, infrastructure suppliers leveraged to data‑center capex, and speculative high‑growth names with thin or negative earnings.
- Respect volatility and valuation risk: Stocks like Palantir and Applied Digital demonstrate how fast prices can move when sentiment shifts, especially when valuations embed very optimistic scenarios. [44]
As always, anyone considering AI stocks should do their own research, stress‑test different scenarios, and align any positions with their risk tolerance and time horizon. Today’s pre‑market moves underscore that AI remains the market’s core growth story—but also one of its most crowded and emotionally charged trades.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. parameter.io, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. apnews.com, 6. m.economictimes.com, 7. parameter.io, 8. stockanalysis.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.barchart.com, 14. stockanalysis.com, 15. marketchameleon.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. public.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. finance.yahoo.com, 23. parameter.io, 24. parameter.io, 25. parameter.io, 26. parameter.io, 27. parameter.io, 28. parameter.io, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. parameter.io, 31. parameter.io, 32. parameter.io, 33. parameter.io, 34. parameter.io, 35. apnews.com, 36. www.barchart.com, 37. www.barchart.com, 38. www.barchart.com, 39. www.investing.com, 40. parameter.io, 41. www.nasdaq.com, 42. parameter.io, 43. www.investing.com, 44. www.nasdaq.com
