New York – December 10, 2025
CoreWeave, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWV) finished Wednesday’s regular session under pressure and extended those losses after the bell, as investors continued to digest the AI cloud company’s aggressive new debt deal and a flood of fresh analysis on the stock.
Shares closed at $88.16, down 2.76% on the day, before sliding to roughly $85–$85.50 in after‑hours trading, a further decline of just over 3%. [1] That leaves CoreWeave sitting well below its 52‑week high of $187, but still far above its $40 IPO price in March and up more than 100% year‑to‑date. [2]
At the same time, Wall Street analysts still see big upside, even as a growing chorus of skeptics warns that the stock could ultimately revisit the $50 region. [3]
Here’s what happened to CoreWeave stock after the bell on December 10, 2025, and what traders and investors should know heading into the December 11 U.S. market open.
How CoreWeave Traded on December 10
According to StockAnalysis and Google Finance data, CoreWeave shares: [4]
- Opened: $88.44
- Previous close (Dec 9): $90.66
- Intraday range: $85.35 – $89.79
- Close (4:00 p.m. ET): $88.16 (-2.76%)
- After‑hours (around 5:30–5:50 p.m. ET): roughly $85–$85.40 (-3%+ vs. close)
- Market cap: ~$43.9 billion
- 52‑week range: $33.52 – $187
Volume was heavy at more than 26 million shares, reflecting heightened institutional and retail interest as the market recalibrates around CoreWeave’s leverage and growth story. [5]
The move comes on the heels of a sharp rebound: after plunging about 45% in November, CoreWeave has bounced from a late‑month low near $65 back into the high‑80s, though it remains far below its summer peak. [6]
The Big Overhang: A $2.25 Billion Convertible Note Deal
The central driver of recent price action is CoreWeave’s new convertible senior notes:
- On December 7, the company announced plans to raise $2.0 billion via convertible senior notes due 2031 in a private offering. [7]
- On December 9, it upsized that deal to $2.25 billion at a 1.75% coupon, with an additional $337.5 million overallotment option for initial purchasers. [8]
- The notes convert at an initial price of about $107.80 per share, a 25% premium to the December 8 closing price of $86.24. [9]
- CoreWeave also entered into capped call transactions with a cap initially set at $215.60, limiting potential dilution if the stock rallies sharply. [10]
- The offering is scheduled to settle on December 11, 2025, meaning the deal will formally close just as the market opens for the next session. [11]
The company expects roughly $2.21 billion in net proceeds (or about $2.54 billion if the overallotment is exercised), with approximately $295.7 million earmarked for the capped call and the rest for “general corporate purposes” — effectively, funding its huge AI data‑center build‑out. [12]
Why the Market Is Nervous
Several outlets, including Barron’s, Investopedia and Investors Business Daily, emphasize that while convertibles are cheaper than straight high‑yield debt, they still add to an already heavy leverage load and introduce future dilution risk for equity holders. [13]
Key concerns:
- CoreWeave’s total debt has climbed to roughly $14 billion as of September. [14]
- Management is targeting around $13 billion in 2025 capital expenditures, with some estimates suggesting capex could exceed $30 billion in 2026 as the company races to build AI infrastructure. [15]
- Five‑year credit default swap (CDS) spreads on CoreWeave debt have surged from around 250–300 basis points earlier this year to about 720 basis points in November, a clear signal that credit markets view the name as increasingly risky. [16]
At the same time, CoreWeave ended Q3 with approximately $6.7 billion in liquidity and has since added billions more via this new note deal and amendments to its credit facilities, giving it a substantial cash war chest to deploy into its backlog of AI infrastructure contracts. [17]
Fresh Research and Commentary on December 10
1. Simply Wall St: “Wild Ride” and Conflicting Valuation Signals
On December 10, Simply Wall St published a piece titled “CoreWeave (CRWV): Assessing Valuation After Recent Share Price Volatility.” The analysis captures the market’s split personality on the stock: [18]
- They highlight CoreWeave’s “wild ride” in 2025, noting a recent price near $90.66, a 14% gain over the past week, but a 19.6% decline over three months.
- Using a price‑to‑sales ratio (P/S), they calculate CoreWeave trades at 10.5× sales — very rich versus the broader U.S. IT sector at about 2.5×, but much cheaper than its closest high‑growth peers near 30.5×.
- On that basis, their model labels the stock undervalued on P/S and suggests significant upside if the market starts valuing CoreWeave more like its fastest‑growing AI peers.
- However, their discounted cash flow (DCF) model paints the opposite picture, flagging the stock as “deeply overvalued” if cash flows disappoint or take longer to materialize than bullish scenarios assume.
Bottom line from that piece: even within a single framework, CoreWeave can look both too cheap and too expensive, depending on which valuation lens investors prioritize.
2. Zacks: A “Bullish News Failure”
Also dated December 10, Zacks Investment Research — via a Nasdaq feature — highlighted CoreWeave as an example of a “bullish news failure” following the convertible announcement. [19]
In their framing:
- On Monday, CoreWeave announced the $2 billion convertible notes plan, a headline that typically hurts growth stocks because of dilution and added debt.
- After initially falling about 8%, the stock finished the day nearly flat and then traded up about 5% on Tuesday, moving above the level where the news hit. [20]
Zacks interprets this as price action that contradicts the negative headline — a signal that “real money” might be buying the dip even as surface‑level news looks bearish. That’s part of why the stock still features in bullish trading idea lists despite its volatility.
3. Reuters Breakingviews: Structural Risk in the “Neo‑Cloud” Model
In a Breakingviews column on December 10, Reuters zoomed out and put CoreWeave into a broader discussion about AI data‑center financing risk. [21]
Some key points:
- CoreWeave and peers like Nebius are labeled “neo‑clouds” — upstart providers that lease data centers, fill them with GPU‑heavy clusters and rent out capacity to hyperscalers and AI startups.
- These neo‑clouds often rely on long‑dated leases (e.g., 15 years) with data‑center developers, who in turn finance projects with substantial debt and preferred equity.
- Because CoreWeave’s customers typically sign shorter 4–5 year contracts, there’s a timing mismatch: if customers leave while long‑term leases remain, the developer and lenders are exposed.
- Using an Applied Digital–CoreWeave project as an example, Breakingviews shows how modest changes in interest rates or exit valuation assumptions can significantly reduce returns, highlighting how thin the margin for error has become. [22]
- The column notes that CoreWeave’s CDS spreads spiking to ~720 bps after a modest cut to 2025 revenue guidance underscores growing concerns about this leverage‑intensive model. [23]
For CRWV shareholders, this isn’t just about stock volatility; it’s about whether the financing ecosystem around AI infrastructure can sustain the pace of build‑out CoreWeave is promising.
4. Barron’s: Debt Scooped Up, Stock Still Dropping
Barron’s reported that CoreWeave’s convertible deal drew strong investor demand, allowing the company to raise the size from $2.0 billion to $2.25 billion, yet the stock fell about 5% to roughly $85.76 in response as equity investors focused on the growing debt load. [24]
The article highlights:
- The 1.75% coupon and $107.80 conversion price.
- Liquidity of $6.7 billion at Q3 end plus about $3.3 billion in incremental financing, including the notes, to help meet a $13 billion 2025 capex target.
- Total debt near $14 billion and the possibility that 2026 capex could top $30 billion, intensifying worries about long‑term leverage and default risk if the AI boom cools. [25]
Bull vs. Bear: Targets From $50 to $127+
Today’s commentary and recently published research show an unusually wide spread between bullish and bearish views.
The Bull Case
- Explosive Growth and Backlog
- In Q3 2025, CoreWeave reported revenue of about $1.36 billion, up roughly 134% year‑on‑year, while narrowing its per‑share loss from around $1.82 a year earlier to about $0.08–$0.22 depending on the metric used. [26]
- Remaining performance obligations — effectively its AI compute backlog — have swelled to approximately $55.6 billion. [27]
- Blue‑Chip Relationships and Strategic Capital
- CoreWeave’s core business is renting Nvidia‑powered GPU clusters to large AI customers. Its key clients include Microsoft, Meta and OpenAI. [28]
- Nvidia owns roughly 7% of the company, and previous reporting notes a multi‑billion‑dollar investment commitment (around $6.3 billion), reinforcing CoreWeave’s strategic importance in the AI supply chain. [29]
- Analyst Consensus and Price Targets
- StockAnalysis aggregates ratings from 28 analysts, showing an average rating of “Buy” and a 12‑month price target of $127.84, implying about 45% upside from Wednesday’s close. [30]
- Some commentary — including a recent Seeking Alpha piece called “Buy CoreWeave’s ‘Code Red’ Moment” — argues that the recent sell‑off reflects fear rather than fundamentals, citing intact AI demand and strong forward catalysts. [31]
- New Products and Platform Expansion
- In addition to financing, CoreWeave is expanding its Mission Control platform, which it describes as a unified operating standard for enterprise AI workloads, aiming to make it easier for large customers to deploy and manage AI at scale. [32]
The Bear Case
- Valuation Stretch and “To $50?” Calls
- Forbes and other outlets have published pieces with headlines like “CoreWeave Stock To $50?” and “Why CoreWeave Stock May Retreat Toward $50 Despite AI Boom,” arguing that the recent 30–45% pullback is justified by execution risk, heavy leverage and the possibility that market expectations have run too far ahead of fundamentals. [33]
- Technical analysts at Invezz similarly suggest that while the stock has rebounded to the high‑80s, chart patterns could point toward a potential retest of the $50 area over time. [34]
- Balance Sheet Risk
- With $29 billion in total liabilities versus $32.9 billion in assets and equity of about $3.9 billion as of Q3, CoreWeave is highly leveraged even before layering on the new convertible notes. [35]
- Critics note that while CDS spreads are a credit‑market metric, a jump to ~720 bps is a red flag that markets are assigning a meaningful probability of distress over the medium term. [36]
- Neo‑Cloud Business Model Fragility
- Reuters Breakingviews warns that the neo‑cloud model — long‑dated leases backed by shorter customer contracts — leaves little room for error in an environment where interest rates and data‑center valuations are shifting. If financing costs rise further or build‑outs are delayed, both developers and tenants like CoreWeave could face a squeeze. [37]
- IPO Hangover and Stock Volatility
- CoreWeave IPO’d in March at $40 per share, briefly soared to well over $150, and has since traded like a “meme stock” in the eyes of some commentators, with large swings up and down as investors debate whether AI infrastructure is the next secular growth engine or an emerging bubble. [38]
Fundamentals Snapshot Heading Into December 11
Data from Google Finance and StockAnalysis for the trailing twelve months and the latest quarter paints this picture of CoreWeave as of the December 10 close: [39]
- Revenue (TTM): ~$4.31 billion
- Net income (TTM): about –$825 million
- 2024 revenue: ~$1.92 billion, up ~737% year‑on‑year; losses of about –$938 million, wider vs. 2023.
- Q3 2025 revenue: ~$1.36 billion (+133–134% YoY)
- Q3 2025 net income: about –$110 million, a much smaller loss than a year earlier
- EBITDA (Q3 TTM): roughly $682 million
- Cash and short‑term investments: about $1.94 billion
- Total assets: ~$32.9 billion
- Total liabilities: ~$29.0 billion
- Shares outstanding: ~498 million
In other words, CoreWeave remains a high‑growth, loss‑making AI infrastructure provider with:
- Rapid revenue expansion
- Improving, but still negative, profitability
- Very large capital needs and a balance sheet heavily reliant on debt and structured financing
What to Watch Before the December 11 Market Open
As the new trading day approaches, here are the key factors likely to shape CoreWeave’s opening tone and early session:
1. Settlement of the Convertible Note Deal
Because the $2.25 billion convertible offering is scheduled to settle on December 11, traders will be watching for: [40]
- Convertible arbitrage flows — buyers of the notes often short the underlying stock as a hedge, which can pressure the share price.
- Any sign that the deal’s size or terms are being adjusted last‑minute, which could signal weaker or stronger appetite than expected.
- Follow‑through from the capped call transactions, which can create complex hedging activity in the stock.
2. Follow‑Through From After‑Hours Selling
With the stock already down nearly 6% from Tuesday’s close when you combine regular‑session and after‑hours declines, short‑term traders will watch: [41]
- Whether pre‑market trading on December 11 shows continued selling or bargain hunting in the mid‑80s.
- Intraday support around Wednesday’s low in the mid‑$80s — and, below that, whether the market starts to eye November’s mid‑$60s lows that some technicians see as a possible retest zone. [42]
3. Reaction to the Latest Research
On December 10, investors were confronted with:
- Simply Wall St’s mixed valuation story (undervalued on P/S, overvalued on DCF). [43]
- Zacks’ framing of the convertible announcement as a bullish news failure. [44]
- Breakingviews’ warning about the fragility of heavily leveraged AI data‑center tenants like CoreWeave. [45]
How the market weighs those competing narratives — growth at a discount vs. leverage and bubble risk — could set the tone for Thursday’s session.
4. Broader AI and Interest‑Rate Sentiment
CoreWeave rarely trades in isolation. It tends to move with:
- AI infrastructure peers (e.g., Nvidia, Applied Digital, Nebius, Palantir, Core Scientific), many of which also saw volatility around debt deals, GPU demand and bubble fears. [46]
- Macro sentiment around rates and credit conditions, which are crucial for financing multi‑billion‑dollar data‑center projects. If bond markets continue to demand higher risk premia from leveraged AI infrastructure plays, valuations for stocks like CRWV may need to adjust.
The Bottom Line
After the bell on December 10, CoreWeave’s stock traded lower again as investors continued to wrestle with the company’s high‑growth but high‑debt profile.
- The bulls see a critical AI infrastructure provider with explosive revenue growth, a massive backlog, blue‑chip partners and consensus analyst targets implying 40–50% upside from current levels. [47]
- The bears focus on leverage, complex financing structures, and a business model that depends on perfect execution in a tightening credit environment — with some publicly arguing the stock could eventually gravitate toward $50 if sentiment turns again. [48]
Heading into the December 11, 2025 open, the key watch‑items are the formal settlement of the convertible notes, any resulting hedging flows, and whether the market treats Wednesday’s late‑day weakness as the start of another leg down or an opportunity to re‑enter a name that remains central to the AI infrastructure trade.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Investing in individual stocks, including CoreWeave (CRWV), involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
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