BP share price today (11 December 2025): Gulf of Mexico milestone, fat dividend and mixed forecasts shape outlook

BP’s share price is edging higher today after the energy major brought its seventh major project of 2025 into production in the Gulf of Mexico, while analysts remain cautious with a consensus “Hold” rating and only moderate upside priced into their targets. ^[1]

Key takeaways

London-listed BP shares closed at 444.35p on 11 December 2025, up 0.24% on the day, leaving the stock around 7% below its 52‑week high. ^[2]
BP’s New York–listed ADRs trade around $35.88, up just under 1% intraday and about 21% higher than where they started 2025. ^[3]
BP has started up the Atlantis Drill Center 1 expansion in the Gulf of Mexico, its seventh major upstream project this year, expected to add about 15,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) at peak and delivered two months ahead of schedule. ^[4]
Wall Street’s consensus on BP is “Hold”, with an average 12‑month ADR price target of about $43.14 (roughly 20% above today’s level), while London analysts see a more modest upside of around 5%. ^[5]
Forecasts for 2026–27 earnings are inching lower, and AI‑driven and quantitative models generally point to mid‑teens percentage upside with meaningful downside risk if energy markets weaken. ^[6]

BP share price today: London and New York snapshot

London: BP plc (BP.) on the LSE

At the close of trading on 11 December 2025, BP’s London‑listed ordinary shares (ticker BP.) were quoted at:

Sell: 444.25p
Buy: 444.35p
Daily move: +1.05p (+0.24%)
Day’s range: 443.26p – 445.80p
52‑week range: 329.25p – 476.20p
Market cap: about £68.0bn
Trailing dividend yield: roughly 5.45%. ^[7]

Over the last year, BP’s London shares have returned just over 12%, according to performance data from Hargreaves Lansdown, underscoring a solid but not spectacular recovery. ^[8]

New York: BP ADRs on the NYSE

In New York, BP’s American Depositary Receipts (ADRs, ticker BP) are trading around $35.88 in early U.S. dealings today, up about 0.9% versus the opening price. ^[9]

Intelligent Investor data show:

2025 year‑to‑date performance: up about 21%, from $29.35 at the start of the year to $35.88 now.
1‑year range: roughly $25.23 – $37.64. ^[10]

In other words, BP is well off its 2024 lows, but still trading below recent peaks, with plenty depending on commodity prices, portfolio reshaping and capital discipline.

Why BP shares are in focus today: Atlantis Drill Center 1 start‑up

The headline corporate news on 11 December 2025 is operational rather than financial: BP has confirmed first oil from the Atlantis Drill Center 1 (DC1) expansion in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. ^[11]

Key details from Alliance News and Vox Markets:

Atlantis DC1 is BP’s seventh major upstream project to start up in 2025. ^[12]
The project is a two‑well subsea tieback to the existing Atlantis platform. ^[13]
It is expected to add around 15,000 boe/d of gross peak annualised average production. ^[14]
The Atlantis hub itself can process up to 200,000 barrels of oil per day, making it one of BP’s longest‑running and most important Gulf assets. ^[15]
BP says Atlantis DC1 “caps off an excellent year” of project delivery and supports its plan to boost U.S. production toward 1 million boe/d by 2030. ^[16]

BP’s London shares briefly traded around 444.55p, up about 0.3%, in morning trade as investors digested the news, according to Alliance News and MarketScreener data. ^[17]

Operationally, Atlantis DC1 reinforces a theme from BP’s Q3 earnings: high reliability, new project start‑ups arriving early, and incremental barrels coming online at existing hubs. ^[18]

Q3 2025 results: solid operations, strong cash flow

BP’s third‑quarter 2025 numbers, reported in early November, are a key backdrop for today’s trading:

Underlying pre‑tax earnings: about $5.3bn.
Underlying net income: around $2.2bn.
Operating cash flow: roughly $7.8bn.
Management reiterated a target of around 20% compound annual growth (CAGR) in adjusted free cash flow between 2025 and 2027. ^[19]

AlphaSense’s summary of the Q3 call highlights:

Upstream production was up roughly 3% quarter‑on‑quarter, with plant reliability around 97%.
Refining availability was also close to 97%, described as the best quarter in 20 years for the current portfolio.
Downstream underlying earnings in the first nine months were about 40% higher than in the same period of 2024. ^[20]

Meanwhile, MarketBeat notes that BP’s Q3 EPS of $0.85 exceeded the consensus estimate of $0.72, with revenue reported at $48.42bn, about 2.5% higher year‑on‑year. ^[21]

Taken together, the quarter painted a picture of improving operations and healthy cash generation, even as reported IFRS profits and margins remain modest and somewhat noisy.

Analyst views: consensus “Hold” with modest upside

Wall Street view on BP ADRs

A fresh MarketBeat survey published today shows:

20 brokerages currently cover BP’s ADRs.
The consensus recommendation is “Hold”, with 3 “Sell”, 8 “Hold”, 7 “Buy” and 2 “Strong Buy” ratings.
The average 12‑month target price is $43.14, implying roughly 20% upside versus today’s $35.88 share price. ^[22]

MarketBeat also points out that BP:

Raises a quarterly dividend of about $0.4992 per ADR, or $2.00 annualised, equating to a dividend yield around 5.6% at recent prices.
Is running with a relatively high headline payout ratio above 300%, reflecting the gap between underlying cash flow and IFRS earnings. ^[23]

London analysts’ targets

On the London side, data compiled by Investors Chronicle show:

20 analysts providing 12‑month price targets for BP’s LSE‑listed shares.
A median target of 467.01p, with a high of 526.79p and a low of 372.86p.
The median implies about 5.4% upside from a last price of 443.25p. ^[24]

TradingView’s forecast page for BP’s London ticker (BP.) paints a slightly more optimistic picture, citing an aggregated analyst price target around 499.49p, roughly low‑double‑digit upside from current levels. ^[25]

Importantly, both datasets align on the direction rather than the magnitude: analysts see upside, but not the kind of deep‑value discount sometimes argued by more bullish commentators.

Earnings forecasts: small cuts, steady long‑term expectations

A separate note compiled by MarketBeat summarising Zacks Research shows that:

Zacks has trimmed its FY2026 EPS estimate for BP to $2.54 (from $2.55).
It now projects FY2027 EPS of $3.33, with Q4 2026 EPS at $0.59 and Q3 2027 at $0.99.
The current‑year consensus EPS across analysts is about $3.53 per share. ^[26]

The changes are tiny in absolute terms, but they stress two points:

Growth expectations beyond 2025 are positive but not explosive; analysts foresee BP grinding out higher earnings rather than delivering a sudden step‑change.
Forecasts are sensitive to commodity price assumptions and to the pace of BP’s portfolio reshaping, particularly its large divestment programme and capex discipline.

Technicals and AI‑based price forecasts

While fundamental analysts remain cautious, quantitative and AI‑driven models offer their own perspective.

AI 1‑year price projection

Stock‑prediction platform Tradestie currently shows BP ADRs at $35.55 (as of 10 December) and generates the following AI‑based outlook: ^[27]

Base‑case 12‑month target:$40.88, about 15% upside.
Bull case (30% probability):$51.10, implying roughly 44% upside.
Bear case (20% probability):$28.62, implying around 20% downside.

The model highlights:

A tight trading range (~4.7%) over the last two weeks,
Converging moving averages,
A neutral Relative Strength Index (RSI in the mid‑40s),
And a slight negative money‑flow reading, suggesting mild distribution rather than robust buying. ^[28]

Tradestie characterises the stock’s near‑term trend as a gentle downtrend with “potential energy building”, implying that a clearer break in either direction could follow upcoming macro or company‑specific catalysts. ^[29]

Other sentiment indicators

GuruFocus’s analysis of BP’s valuation and balance sheet, published on 4 December, notes that:

The stock’s price‑to‑earnings ratio (P/E) sits well above its long‑term median,
The price‑to‑book (P/B) ratio is near a 10‑year high,
Net margin is under 1%,
And BP’s Altman Z‑Score around 1.2 falls into the “distress” zone often associated with elevated balance‑sheet risk. ^[30]

That combination reinforces a key risk flagged by more cautious analysts: BP’s share price resilience and generous dividend could be vulnerable if earnings disappoint or if the company stumbles in delivering its $20bn divestment plan.

Strategy shift: divestments, green pivot and Castrol sale

BP’s portfolio reshaping is another pillar of today’s investment debate.

Duqm green hydrogen project cancelled

Earlier this month, BP cancelled its Duqm Green Hydrogen Project in Oman, which had been designed to produce about 150,000 tonnes of green hydrogen per year from a 1.5 GW facility. ^[31]

GuruFocus reports that the move follows BP’s decision to withdraw from a UK hydrogen and carbon‑capture initiative, suggesting a broader recalibration of its capital‑intensive green hydrogen pipeline. ^[32]

For investors, this can be read in two ways:

Bullish spin: capital is being redirected from low‑return megaprojects toward higher‑margin oil, gas and downstream opportunities.
Bearish spin: it may signal a slower transition strategy, potentially increasing future regulatory and reputational risk as the energy transition accelerates.

Castrol sale talks

A Reuters exclusive in mid‑November reported that BP is in active talks with infrastructure investor Stonepeak about selling its Castrol lubricants unit, a key step towards its $20bn divestment target. ^[33]

Key points from that report:

Castrol was put under strategic review earlier in the year.
RBC analysts have suggested the unit could fetch around $8bn.
BP’s CEO has said he expects about $5bn of asset sales to be completed or announced this year, aided by disposals in U.S. midstream assets. ^[34]

Successful execution here would bolster the balance sheet and help fund ongoing buybacks and dividends, but investors remain alert to execution risk and the possibility that bids come in below expectations.

Macro backdrop: a friendlier Fed, but oil still rules

On the macro side, the U.S. Federal Reserve has just delivered another 25‑basis‑point rate cut, lowering the federal funds target range to 3.5–3.75% after several months on hold earlier in the year. ^[35]

Lower rates tend to:

Support risk assets such as equities generally,
Ease pressure on high‑dividend “bond proxy” stocks like big integrated oil companies,
And can weaken the U.S. dollar, sometimes supporting commodity prices, including crude.

But for BP, the dominant drivers remain:

The level and volatility of oil and gas prices,
Refining margins,
And the company’s success in delivering projects like Atlantis DC1 on time and on budget while keeping costs under control. ^[36]

Previous research from Jefferies (May 2025) highlighted the risk that, if oil prices fall toward $60–65 per barrel, BP could struggle to sustain its buybacks and might face more pressure around leverage, which is one reason Jefferies cut its rating from “Buy” to “Hold” and slashed its target price to $29 at that time. ^[37]

Bull vs bear case for the BP share price

The bullish case

Recent bullish commentary – including a new Seeking Alpha piece arguing BP is “worth far more than the market believes” – leans on several themes: ^[38]

Solid underlying cash flow despite weak IFRS earnings.
A high and (so far) growing dividend, yielding mid‑single digits. ^[39]
A strong pipeline of new upstream projects like Atlantis DC1 that add relatively low‑cost barrels. ^[40]
Potential value unlock from divestments (e.g., Castrol, U.S. shale assets) and ongoing share buybacks. ^[41]

A recent article on The Motley Fool’s UK site even floated the possibility that BP’s share price could surge as much as 88% by 2026, reflecting just how wide the range of bullish expectations has become – though that is very much at the optimistic end of the spectrum. ^[42]

The bearish case

On the other side:

BP has already rallied by double‑digit percentages in 2025, leaving less obvious “bargain” territory. ^[43]
Some contributors warn that the share price could come under pressure if the recent rally runs ahead of fundamentals or if commodity prices soften. ^[44]
Valuation metrics such as headline P/E and P/B look stretched relative to history, in part because reported profits remain thin. ^[45]
Execution risks around $20bn of planned divestments and the strategic pivot away from some low‑carbon projects introduce further uncertainty. ^[46]

Overlay that with macro risk – from oil price volatility to the possibility that the Fed’s rate‑cut cycle stalls – and the case for caution becomes clearer.

What today’s BP share price means for investors

As of 11 December 2025, BP sits at an interesting crossroads:

Operational momentum is clearly positive, as shown by high reliability metrics and the ahead‑of‑schedule start‑up of Atlantis DC1. ^[47]
Income investors are still being paid handsomely, with a dividend yield around 5–6% depending on the listing and data source. ^[48]
Analysts’ central case is for modest price appreciation over the next 12 months – roughly 5–12% in London and around 20% for the ADRs – not counting dividends. ^[49]
AI and technical models are broadly aligned with that mid‑teens upside scenario but flag a non‑trivial risk of a drawdown toward the high‑$20s if conditions deteriorate. ^[50]

For current and prospective shareholders, the key questions are therefore:

Do you believe BP can keep executing on its project pipeline and divestment plan while maintaining its dividend and buybacks?
How comfortable are you with oil and gas price risk, and with a company that is recalibrating – but not abandoning – parts of its low‑carbon strategy?
Is a mid‑single‑digit dividend plus mid‑teens potential capital gain adequate compensation for those risks relative to other opportunities in the market?

As always, this article is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Share prices, forecasts and yields can change rapidly, and any decision to buy or sell shares in BP should be based on your own research, investment objectives and risk tolerance, ideally with input from a qualified financial adviser.

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