Palantir (PLTR) Slips in Premarket After Navy AI Surge: Price, News, and 2025

Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) is waking up slightly weaker Thursday morning after another explosive move higher tied to a massive U.S. Navy AI contract. Here’s what’s happening with Palantir stock today in premarket trading, and how the latest news and Wall Street forecasts could shape PLTR through 2026 and beyond.

Palantir stock today: premarket snapshot (Dec 11, 2025, ~6:00 a.m. ET)

Wednesday’s close (Dec 10): Palantir finished regular trading at $187.91, up about 3.3% on the day, with an intraday high of $190.39. ^[1]
Early premarket today:
- MarketWatch shows $185.20 at 4:08 a.m. ET, down 1.44% from yesterday’s close. ^[2]
- Broker Public.com reports $185.35 at 6:30 a.m. ET, down 1.36% from $187.91. ^[3]

Taken together, they point to Palantir trading around $185 in premarket, roughly 1–1.5% below Wednesday’s close, after a sharp run-up on the Navy contract news.

Key snapshot numbers around today’s trading:

Market cap: around $448 billion ^[4]
12‑month range: $63.40 – $207.52 ^[5]
Trailing P/E: ~447x
PEG ratio: about 7.0
Beta: ~1.5 (more volatile than the broader market) ^[6]

In other words, PLTR is trading like a hyper‑growth AI leader, not a value stock.

The big catalyst: a $448 million U.S. Navy ShipOS AI contract

This week’s main driver for Palantir is a two‑year, $448 million contract with the U.S. Navy to deploy an AI‑powered shipbuilding and maintenance platform known as ShipOS.

What the deal actually is

The U.S. Navy and Palantir announced an initial $448 million agreement to roll out ShipOS across public and private shipyards and key suppliers in the submarine industrial base. ^[7]
ShipOS is built on Palantir Foundry and its AI Platform (AIP) and will be used to:
- Optimize shipyard schedules and workflows in real time
- Connect suppliers through “intelligent logistics”
- Give program managers visibility into schedule, cost, and risk across the supply chain ^[8]

Breaking Defense reports that the contract aims to expand Palantir’s software to three public shipyards and multiple private yards, eventually reaching around 100 suppliers if the pilot is successful. ^[9]

Why this matters so much for Palantir

Early pilot projects at General Dynamics Electric Boat and other Navy facilities showed dramatic productivity gains:

Submarine schedule planning cut from ~160 manual hours to under 10 minutes
Material review times reduced from weeks to under one hour ^[10]

The Tokenist notes that this Navy deal builds on a $10 billion‑cap Enterprise Agreement with the U.S. Army, signed in July, which consolidated 75 separate contracts into a single 10‑year software framework. ^[11]

In short:

Palantir isn’t just winning one‑off pilots—it’s increasingly embedding its AI platforms deeply into core U.S. defense infrastructure.

That narrative is exactly what has fueled the massive rally in PLTR over the last three years.

Recent performance: a parabolic AI winner

Multiple sources highlight just how extreme Palantir’s move has been:

The Tokenist pegs Palantir’s 2025 year‑to‑date gain at roughly 150%, with a three‑year return over 2,450%, far ahead of the S&P 500’s performance over the same period. ^[12]
A separate Motley Fool article notes Palantir has soared more than 2,000% over the past three years, pushing its valuation “to unbelievable levels.” ^[13]

Wednesday’s close near $188 keeps the stock not far from its recent 52‑week high above $200, and firmly in “priced for perfection” territory. ^[14]

Under the hood: Q3 numbers justify the growth story

Despite the nosebleed valuation, the underlying business is genuinely surging.

Q3 FY25 earnings (reported Nov 3, 2025)

According to several MarketBeat summaries of Palantir’s latest quarter: ^[15]

Revenue: $1.18 billion, beating estimates around $1.09 billion
Revenue growth: +62.8% year‑over‑year
EPS (GAAP or adjusted, depending on source): $0.21, vs $0.17 consensus
Net margin: 28.1%
Return on equity: ~15.5%

ChartMill notes that Palantir’s latest quarter produced roughly 110% EPS growth and 62.8% sales growth, easily clearing classic growth thresholds. ^[16]

Motley Fool analysts also highlight Palantir’s “Rule of 40” score—the sum of revenue growth and operating margin—at an eye‑watering 114, reflecting ~63% revenue growth and ~51% adjusted operating margin in the latest quarter. ^[17]

For AI‑software investors, that combination of hyper‑growth + profitability is the bull case in one sentence.

Today’s narrative split: bullish growth vs valuation fears

New research published this morning (Dec 11, 2025) captures a sharp divide in how Wall Street is reading Palantir’s future.

1. Bullish angle: a CANSLIM‑style growth leader

A fresh ChartMill report just flagged Palantir as a CANSLIM growth candidate—a framework popular among growth investors that screens for:

Strong current and annual earnings growth
High relative strength versus the market
Solid institutional sponsorship
Supportive overall market trend ^[18]

Highlights from that analysis:

Palantir’s three‑year EPS CAGR is ~43%, with ROE ~16.6%, pointing to durable profitability.
Its relative strength score around 95+ means it has outperformed roughly 95% of the market.
Both short‑ and long‑term price trends are positive, and the stock trades in the upper part of its 52‑week range. ^[19]

The takeaway: for growth‑momentum traders, PLTR still screens as one of the strongest large‑cap AI stories available.

2. Bearish angle: Wall Street warns of a 2026 comedown

Two new Motley Fool pieces syndicated across Nasdaq, AOL and Finviz this morning are notably more skeptical:

“Nvidia and Palantir Are Sending Shockwaves Through Wall Street With This $12.6 Billion Warning for 2026” argues that insiders at Nvidia and Palantir have collectively sold about $12.6 billion of stock over the last five years, with $7.2 billion of that selling coming from Palantir insiders and essentially no insider buying. ^[20]
The same research flags Palantir’s trailing price‑to‑sales ratio at roughly 119, far above the ~30x P/S ceiling that earlier “next‑big‑thing” mega‑cap winners have historically been able to sustain. ^[21]

Another Motley Fool piece titled “Prediction: These 2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks Will Be Worth More Than Palantir by the End of 2026” notes: ^[22]

Palantir shares are up about 148% year to date in 2025.
The stock trades at close to 100x 2026 sales expectations and roughly 250x forward earnings.
The current median Wall Street price target near $200 is only a mid‑single‑digit percentage above the current price, suggesting limited upside if valuations don’t compress.

That article’s author explicitly expects Palantir could “take a step back in 2026” as investors re‑rate the stock to more rational levels.

3. Long‑term sober view: 24/7 Wall St. sees near‑term downside, gradual recovery

A detailed 24/7 Wall St. forecast for Palantir through 2030, updated on December 8, sketches an even more cautious trajectory: ^[23]

Median one‑year Street target: ~$187.87, only ~3.4% upside from recent prices.
24/7’s own 12‑month target (2025): $120, implying ~34% downside from current levels.
Longer‑term projections (24/7’s internal model):
- 2027 target: $157 (still below today’s price)
- 2030 target: $192, only ~5–6% above today’s level

Their model assumes revenue growing from $3.47 billion in 2025 to $8.48 billion in 2030, with EPS rising from $0.47 to $1.27, but argues the market may already be pricing in much of that upside.

Consensus forecasts and valuation metrics

Different data providers agree on one thing: Palantir is expensive, even against aggressive growth assumptions.

Analyst estimates and price targets

StocksGuide aggregates dozens of analyst models and finds: ^[24]

Sales forecasts:
- 2025 revenue: ~$4.5 billion (+56.6% vs 2024)
- 2026 revenue: ~$6.4 billion (+42.7% vs 2025)
EPS forecasts:
- 2025 EPS: $0.74
- 2026 EPS: $1.03

On price targets:

Average target (around 2026 horizon): $204
That’s roughly 8–12% above the current stock price, depending on the precise reference price.
Target range is wide:
- High: $267.75 (~40–45% upside)
- Low: $50.50 (over 70% downside)

Ratings distribution across 32 analysts:

11 Buy
18 Hold
3 Sell ^[25]

MarketBeat’s coverage paints a similar picture, with a consensus “Hold” rating and an average price target around $172, below where the stock trades today. Recent target hikes from firms like UBS, DA Davidson, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and others have mostly landed in a neutral stance, even after big upward revisions. ^[26]

Valuation vs. growth

Using StocksGuide and MarketBeat data: ^[27]

Current P/E: ~447x trailing earnings
2025 forward P/E (consensus): about 254x
EV/Sales (2025E): ~98x
Net margin: projected around 39% in 2025, after jumping from ~16% in 2024

Motley Fool’s insider‑selling piece underscores that Palantir’s P/S near 119x dwarfs even the hottest prior tech bubbles, arguing that “there’s virtually no sales or earnings growth rate that can support such aggressive valuation premiums.” ^[28]

For bulls, those multiples are the price of a dominant AI franchise. For bears, they scream bubble risk into 2026.

How big money is positioning: institutions vs insiders

Institutions are heavily involved

Recent MarketBeat filings highlight robust institutional interest: ^[29]

Vanguard: ~205.7 million shares, up 3.6% after adding over 7.1 million shares in the latest quarter.
State Street: about 94.5 million shares, up 6.9% (adding ~6.1 million shares). ^[30]
Norges Bank (Norway’s sovereign wealth fund) initiated a multibillion‑dollar position in the second quarter.
BNP Paribas recently boosted its stake by over 400% in Q2, albeit from a smaller base. ^[31]

Roughly 45–46% of Palantir shares are now owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors. ^[32]

At the same time, some funds are trimming:

CIBC Asset Management reduced its stake, and
Faithward Advisors LLC cut its position by about 6.4%, though Palantir still represents its 6th‑largest holding. ^[33]

Insiders are heavy net sellers

Multiple analyses (Motley Fool via Nasdaq and AOL) show that from late 2020 through early December 2025: ^[34]

Palantir insiders have sold about $7.2 billion worth of stock, with virtually no open‑market insider buying.
Nvidia insiders have sold around $5.4 billion, bringing combined net selling at the two AI darlings to roughly $12.6 billion.

MarketBeat filings also record sizable share sales from CEO Alex Karp and key executive Shyam Sankar in November, even as the stock powered higher. ^[35]

While some of that selling is linked to stock‑based compensation and tax obligations, the lack of insider purchases is one of the core arguments from valuation skeptics heading into 2026.

What today’s premarket move is telling traders

Thursday’s modest premarket pullback around 1–1.5% looks less like a panic and more like a breather after a contract‑driven spike:

The Navy ShipOS deal and prior $10B Army enterprise agreement reinforce Palantir’s status as a key defense AI contractor. ^[36]
Q3 results showed stunning growth and profitability, plus ongoing earnings beats. ^[37]
New growth‑oriented analyses (ChartMill & some Motley Fool pieces) still view Palantir as a core AI winner with rare financial metrics. ^[38]

But:

Valuation concerns are front and center, with multiple fresh reports warning that Palantir’s P/S, P/E and insider selling patterns look stretched compared with prior tech cycles. ^[39]
Conservative forecasts like those from 24/7 Wall St. and some Wall Street targets imply limited upside or even material downside over the next 12–24 months if sentiment cools. ^[40]

For short‑term traders, today’s early dip is largely about positioning vs expectations after a huge defense‑AI headline, not a change in the fundamental story that arrived overnight.

Key things for PLTR investors and traders to watch next

If you’re following Palantir stock today and into 2026, here are the main catalysts and risks to keep on your radar:

Execution on ShipOS and the Navy deal
- The two‑year contract is heavily outcome‑based—Palantir has to prove measurable cost and schedule improvements to justify expansion and sustainment. ^[41]
Army Enterprise Agreement ramp‑up
- The up‑to‑$10 billion cap is a maximum over ten years, not guaranteed revenue; actual offtake will depend on adoption across Army and other DoD programs. ^[42]
Sustainability of 60%+ revenue growth
- Analysts currently bake in decelerating but still very high growth through 2027. Any meaningful slowdown versus expectations could pressure a valuation that assumes near‑perfect execution. ^[43]
Insider transactions and institutional flows
- Continued heavy insider selling with no buying, or major funds starting to reduce positions, could signal a shift in sentiment at the top of the shareholder stack. ^[44]
Macro environment and AI sentiment
- Palantir’s late‑stage valuation leaves it particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates, risk appetite, and any broader unwind in high‑multiple AI names.

Bottom line

As of early premarket on December 11, 2025, Palantir stock is trading around $185, slightly below Wednesday’s close after a big move on its Navy ShipOS contract. The fundamental story remains exceptionally strong—rapidly growing, highly profitable AI software with deepening U.S. government ties.

At the same time, valuation and insider behavior are flashing bright caution lights. Fresh research this morning underscores a widening gap between Palantir’s momentum‑driven share price and more conservative long‑term forecasts, with several models suggesting meaningful downside risk if the market’s enthusiasm cools.

For investors, that makes Palantir in December 2025 less a simple “AI winner” and more a high‑beta bet on how long the market is willing to pay premium multiples for that growth.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.