Carvana Stock (CVNA) Rockets Higher: What the 12‑Day Rally, S&P 500 Inclusion and 2025 Forecasts Mean for Investors

Meta description: Carvana stock (CVNA) has surged more than 50% since November 21, 2025 and is set to join the S&P 500. Here’s what’s behind the rally, how Wall Street values the stock now, and the key risks and opportunities investors should watch.

Data snapshot (as of December 11, 2025)
Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) is trading around $471 per share, near all‑time highs after an explosive late‑November rally.

Key takeaways

Since November 21, 2025, CVNA has surged roughly 50% over a 12‑session winning streak, marking the longest rally in the company’s history and pushing the stock to record highs near $465–$470. ^[1]
Carvana will join the S&P 500 before the market opens on December 22, 2025, forcing index funds and ETFs to buy the shares and adding a powerful technical catalyst to an already dramatic comeback. ^[2]
Fundamentals have improved sharply: in Q3 2025 Carvana sold ~156,000 retail units (+44% YoY), generated about $5.65 billion in revenue (+55%), and earned $263 million in net income with an 11.3% adjusted EBITDA margin. ^[3]
Wall Street currently rates Carvana a “Buy” overall, but the average 12‑month price target is around $415—below today’s price—with individual targets spanning roughly $275 to $500. ^[4]
Despite the turnaround, valuation is extreme: Carvana trades around 50–70 times forward earnings, far above traditional automakers and even many high‑growth tech names, leading several analysts and short‑sellers to question how much upside is left. ^[5]
The story remains high‑risk, high‑reward, hinging on sustained profitability, used‑car demand, and the company’s ability to manage a still‑large, though restructured, debt load. ^[6]

Important: This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

1. What’s happened to Carvana stock since November 21, 2025?

The turning point in the latest phase of Carvana’s saga is November 21, 2025.

On that date, a valuation-focused piece on Carvana noted that one widely followed fair‑value model put the stock’s intrinsic value around $419.67 per share, at a time when CVNA closed near $309.88—implying substantial upside if the bullish assumptions played out. ^[7]

From the close on November 21 to December 11:

Carvana shares rallied roughly 50%, powering through multiple resistance levels. ^[8]
The stock logged a 12‑day winning streak, the longest in company history, and touched fresh all‑time highs around $464–$465. ^[9]
The company’s market value climbed toward $100 billion, eclipsing legacy automakers Ford and General Motors and turning Carvana into one of the most valuable auto‑related names in the U.S. market. ^[10]

The immediate catalyst for this extension of the rally was the announcement that Carvana will be added to the S&P 500 index, effective before the market opens on December 22, 2025. Index inclusion typically forces huge, mechanical demand from passive funds and ETFs tracking the benchmark, and traders quickly piled in ahead of that flow. ^[11]

Several outlets tracking the move noted that:

The S&P news pushed the stock up double digits in a single session, adding to already outsized 2025 gains (roughly 125% year‑to‑date). ^[12]
From its December 2022 low near $3.72, Carvana is now up more than 8,000–10,000%, one of the most dramatic multi‑year rebounds in recent market history. ^[13]

In short, Carvana’s late‑November to early‑December surge is less about a single earnings surprise and more about a “perfect storm” of improved fundamentals, technical momentum, and index‑driven demand.

2. Fundamentals: How strong is the turnaround story?

Carvana’s spectacular stock move is built on a genuine operational turnaround—though one that remains young and fragile.

Q3 2025: Record sales and profits

For the quarter ended September 30, 2025, Carvana reported: ^[14]

Retail units sold: 155,941 (+44% year‑over‑year), an all‑time high
Revenue: $5.65 billion (+55% YoY)
Net income: $263 million, with a 4.7% net margin
Adjusted EBITDA: $637 million, with an 11.3% margin
GAAP operating margin: 9.8%

Management also guided to:

Q4 2025 retail units sold above 150,000
Full‑year 2025 adjusted EBITDA at or above the high end of its prior $2.0–$2.2 billion range

In its Q3 shareholder letter, the company reiterated a long‑term ambition to sell 3 million retail units per year at an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 13.5% within five to ten years—a scale that would put Carvana among the largest used‑car retailers in the U.S. by volume. ^[15]

Debt restructuring: From near‑collapse to breathing room

The bullish narrative hinges on more than just sales growth. In 2022–2023, Carvana was widely seen as a potential bankruptcy candidate:

Debt ballooned to nearly $9 billion, and rising interest rates made the capital structure increasingly unsustainable. ^[16]
By December 2022, the stock had collapsed below $4 per share and many analysts were effectively writing the company’s obituary. ^[17]

A massive debt exchange in mid‑2023 changed the trajectory. Carvana and its bondholders agreed to swap about $5.7 billion of unsecured notes for new secured debt, covering more than 96% of those bonds. The deal: ^[18]

Reduced total debt by roughly 20%
Cut cash interest by about $910 million over two years
Pushed the bulk of maturities out to 2028–2031, giving the company years of runway

According to follow‑up coverage, net debt has since been trimmed from roughly $8 billion at the end of 2023 to around $3 billion, as Carvana used improved profitability and refinancings to clean up its balance sheet. ^[19]

Margins and unit economics

The turnaround is evident in profitability:

Gross margins reportedly climbed from roughly 5% at the end of 2023 to almost 20% in Q3 2025. ^[20]
Carvana is now generating positive net income and high‑teens adjusted EBITDA margins on a quarterly basis, despite still‑elevated interest costs. ^[21]

This mix of record volumes, improving unit economics, and a de‑risked maturity wall underpins Bulls’ argument that the business has structurally changed since the 2022 crisis.

3. What does Wall Street think now? (Post‑Nov. 21 forecasts & targets)

Consensus forecasts: Buy, but with downside to targets

According to forecast data aggregated by StockAnalysis: ^[22]

22 analysts currently cover Carvana
The average rating is “Buy”
The average 12‑month price target is about $415, implying ~11% downside from current levels around $471
Targets span:
- Low: $275
- Median: ~$440
- High: $500

Analysts also expect:

Revenue to jump from about $13.7 billion in 2024 to about $20.3 billion in 2025, a roughly 49% increase, and to $25.8 billion in 2026 (+27%).
EPS to grow from roughly $1.59 in 2024 to 5.29 in 2025 and 7.20 in 2026, implying triple‑digit earnings growth as scale and margins improve. ^[23]

In other words, Wall Street expects Carvana to grow rapidly—but thinks the market may already be ahead of itself, given that the average target sits below the current share price.

Individual analyst moves since mid‑November

Since mid‑November 2025, several notable updates have hit the tape: ^[24]

Needham (Nov 17): Reiterated a “Strong Buy” with a $500 target, essentially the current high watermark on the Street.
Wedbush (Nov 24): Upgraded Carvana from Hold to Buy and raised its target from $380 to $400, citing improving growth prospects and margin expansion.
Barclays (late November): Initiated or reiterated an overweight stance with a target around $390–$395, highlighting share‑gain potential in used cars.
Deutsche Bank (late November): Resumed coverage with a Buy rating and a mid‑$390s target, describing a favorable “Goldilocks” setup of improving fundamentals and still‑large growth runway.
UBS (Dec 1): Initiated with a Strong Buy and a $450 target.
Bank of America (Dec 8): Boosted its target from $385 to $455, maintaining a Strong Buy and framing S&P 500 inclusion as a key catalyst.
Evercore ISI (Dec 9): Nudged its target up from $395 to $420 while keeping a Hold stance, signaling caution on valuation despite operational progress.

On November 21 specifically, a valuation‑oriented note argued that Carvana’s fair value sat near $420, implying upside from the then‑current price of about $310. Less than three weeks later, the stock had shot far beyond that fair‑value estimate, raising natural questions about froth. ^[25]

Longer‑term 2027 projections

A detailed November 18 review from TIKR (just before the user’s date cutoff, but based on current consensus assumptions) outlined what analysts think Carvana might look like by 2027: ^[26]

Revenue growth: projected around 31.8% annually through 2027
Operating margin: expected to reach roughly 10.1%
Forward P/E: about 49x at the time of the report
Using those inputs, a guided valuation model suggested potential fair value near $607 per share by 2027, implying around 88% upside over a multi‑year horizon from that mid‑November price level (around $323 at the time).

The key caveat in that analysis: all of that upside assumes Carvana successfully maintains margin gains, avoids slipping back into heavy leverage, and delivers steady execution in a very cyclical, competitive industry.

4. Technical picture since late November: Momentum on steroids

Short‑term traders have focused on Carvana’s momentum profile since mid‑November:

Technical commentary on November 28 pointed to a series of strong bullish candles and rising volume, with weekly price action moving from roughly $330.90 to $374.57, showing aggressive buying interest. ^[27]
The S&P 500 inclusion announcement then ignited a buying frenzy, with TradingView/GuruFocus noting a 12‑day surge that added about 50% to the share price and pushed CVNA to a fresh all‑time high near $464.99. ^[28]
Reuters estimated that this string of gains inflicted around $1 billion in mark‑to‑market losses on short sellers, while short interest has slid to some of the lowest levels in years as bears covered positions. ^[29]

The upshot: Carvana is now a quintessential momentum stock—heavily owned by growth and momentum traders, increasingly owned by passive index funds, and less dominated by shorts than in prior cycles.

That can support the price in the short term, but it also means that any negative surprise or sentiment shift could trigger a sharp reversal as momentum traders head for the exits and passive flows normalize after the index inclusion date.

5. Valuation: How expensive is Carvana now?

Valuation is where the story turns controversial.

Relative and absolute valuation

Recent reporting and data suggest that Carvana now trades at: ^[30]

Forward P/E in roughly the 50–70x range
Compared with:
- Single‑digit P/E ratios for Ford and GM
- Low‑ to mid‑teens multiples for many traditional dealers
- A sector P/E somewhere around the mid‑20s

One article noted that Carvana’s P/E is several times higher than that of CarMax and the broader autos/retail sector, raising the possibility that the stock is significantly overvalued if growth or margins disappoint. ^[31]

Nasdaq/Motley Fool commentary also flagged: ^[32]

9,540% share price appreciation since January 2023
A forward P/E approaching 70x
Concerns that subprime borrower exposure, insider selling (over $50 million in stock since November 1), and slower cash‑flow growth versus accounting earnings could be red flags if credit conditions deteriorate.

At the same time, bullish voices—including some strategists quoted by Reuters—describe Carvana as a long‑term compounder, arguing that: ^[33]

Its digital, vertically integrated model could keep gaining share
Scale advantages in logistics and data could support high margins
The company could ultimately rival or surpass traditional dealers in unit volumes

The tension between breathtaking growth and equally breathtaking valuation is central to today’s Carvana debate.

6. Key risks and issues investors should watch

Even after November’s euphoria, recent coverage since 11/21 underscores that Carvana remains a risky name. Among the recurring concerns:

1. Credit quality & subprime exposure

Analysts have highlighted that a large share of Carvana’s buyers are subprime borrowers, which raises the risk of loan delinquencies and defaults, especially if unemployment rises or rates stay elevated. In a downturn, this could hurt both financing income and resale values of repossessed vehicles. ^[34]

2. Accounting and governance scrutiny

Short‑seller Hindenburg Research released a high‑profile report in early 2025, alleging aggressive accounting around loan sales and calling the turnaround a “mirage.” Carvana has strongly disputed the claims as “intentionally misleading and inaccurate,” but the episode illustrates the level of skepticism and forensic scrutiny around the stock. ^[35]

3. Cyclicality of used‑car demand

The used‑car market is exposed to: ^[36]

Interest‑rate movements
Consumer credit availability
Residual values for vehicles

A “K‑shaped” U.S. recovery—where lower‑income consumers gravitate toward used cars while wealthier buyers favor new vehicles—has benefited Carvana recently, but that dynamic could easily reverse if the economy slows or if new‑car incentives surge.

4. Debt still matters

While the 2023 debt exchange bought Carvana time and cut interest expense, the company still carries billions in debt at relatively high coupon rates. The new secured notes, due 2028–2031, carry interest in the 9–11% range, with options to pay in kind at even higher effective rates. ^[37]

If margins compress or volumes plateau, leverage could become a concern again, pressuring equity holders.

5. Post–S&P 500 inclusion hangover

Index inclusion is a one‑time structural catalyst:

In the weeks leading up to December 22, index funds and shadowing traders must accumulate shares.
After that date, the forced‑buying tailwind disappears, leaving the stock more dependent on organic inflows and fundamentals. ^[38]

Many high‑flyers added to major indices have historically seen increased volatility or underperformance in the months following inclusion once the initial demand shock passes.

7. Bull vs. bear case: Is Carvana stock (CVNA) a buy after the rally?

Ultimately, whether Carvana looks attractive at today’s price depends heavily on risk tolerance and time horizon.

The bullish case

Supporters of CVNA, including several major Wall Street firms, typically emphasize: ^[39]

Explosive top‑line growth and record Q3 results, with strong guidance into Q4 and 2026
Significantly improved margin profile, with gross margins near 20% and double‑digit adjusted EBITDA margins
A de‑risked balance sheet, with debt reduced and maturities extended into the next decade
A powerful brand in online used‑car retail, supported by national infrastructure and technology
Potential multi‑year upside if revenue grows ~30% annually and operating margins reach 10–13% as some forecasts suggest
Increased legitimacy and liquidity from joining the S&P 500, which may broaden the investor base and ultimately reduce volatility over the long term

From this perspective, Carvana is evolving from a boom‑and‑bust story into a scaled, profitable platform that could justify a premium multiple for years.

The bearish (or cautious) case

Skeptics—and even some neutral analysts—point to: ^[40]

Valuation stretched far beyond traditional peers, with the average 12‑month target now below the market price
Heavy dependence on subprime borrowers and auto credit cycles, which could backfire in a downturn
A still‑substantial debt load, even after restructuring, with expensive secured notes that limit margin for error
Regulatory, accounting, and governance questions, including short‑seller allegations and ongoing scrutiny
The risk that growth slows or margins plateau just as the stock is priced for perfection

From this angle, Carvana looks like a momentum‑driven, late‑cycle story where expectations may be outpacing fundamentals, setting up vulnerability to negative surprises.

8. How to think about Carvana stock now

For investors evaluating Carvana after its post–November 21 run:

Short‑term traders may see continued opportunities around the S&P 500 inclusion date and extreme volatility, but should be prepared for sharp swings in both directions.
Long‑term investors need to decide whether they believe Carvana can:
- Sustain 30%‑plus revenue growth into the back half of the decade
- Maintain double‑digit operating margins despite competition and credit cycles
- Manage its debt and capital needs without dilutive equity raises

If those conditions hold, projections like a potential $600+ share price by 2027 may not be unrealistic. If they don’t, multiple compression could hit the stock hard, even if the business remains fundamentally healthier than it was in 2022. ^[41]

Regardless of stance, the events since November 21, 2025—a 50%+ rally, record highs, and imminent S&P 500 inclusion—have made Carvana one of the most consequential and contested stocks in the U.S. market heading into 2026.