Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM), the world’s largest gold miner, has turned into one of 2025’s standout performers as a historic gold rally, record free cash flow, aggressive share buybacks and a major restructuring all collide at once. [1]
Since November 21, 2025, Newmont stock has climbed from about $83.49 to roughly $99–100 per share, a gain of just over 19% in three weeks, putting the share price near the top of its 52‑week range of about $37 to $100. [2]
At the same time, Newmont is:
- Posting record quarterly free cash flow and near‑zero net debt
- Integrating its massive Newcrest acquisition and cutting about 16% of roles as part of “Project Catalyst”
- Completing a multi‑billion‑dollar divestiture program and a $6 billion share repurchase authorization
- Preparing for a CEO transition, with Natascha Viljoen set to become Newmont’s first female chief executive on January 1, 2026 [3]
Below is a deep dive into Newmont stock’s latest performance, news, forecasts and what to watch into 2026.
Newmont Stock Performance From November 21, 2025
According to StockAnalysis, Newmont closed on November 21, 2025 at $83.49 after trading between $81.34 and $83.89 that day. By December 11, 2025, the closing price had moved to about $99.45. [4]
That move:
- Represents a ~19% gain over three weeks
- Extends a huge rally: recent research notes highlight Newmont is up roughly 79% over six months and more than 100%+ over the last year, depending on the start date used. [5]
MarketBeat and Investing.com data show:
- 52‑week range: roughly $36.86–99.96
- Market cap: just under $100 billion
- Trailing P/E: around 14x, with a PEG ratio near 0.6 and beta well below 1, reflecting both strong growth expectations and lower volatility than the broader market. [6]
In other words, Newmont has gone from out‑of‑favor cyclical miner to a large‑cap “quality growth” play tied to record‑high gold prices.
What Newmont Actually Does
Newmont is the world’s largest gold producer, with a diversified portfolio spanning North and South America, Australia, Africa and Papua New Guinea. Alongside gold, it also produces copper, silver, zinc and lead as important by‑products. [7]
The 2023 acquisition of Newcrest Mining transformed the company again, giving Newmont control over several top‑tier Australian gold and copper operations and increasing its exposure to long‑life, low‑cost Tier 1 assets. [8]
Post‑Newcrest, Newmont has focused on three big strategic themes:
- Consolidate Tier 1 gold and copper assets
- Exit smaller, higher‑cost mines
- Run a leaner global organization with a clearer operating structure and lower overhead.
Those themes are now showing up clearly in the latest results.
Q3 2025: Record Free Cash Flow and Improved Guidance
Newmont’s Q3 2025 numbers are the backbone of the current rally.
According to the company’s earnings release and a detailed transcript on Investing.com:
- Revenue:$5.52 billion, beating forecasts of around $5.19–5.2 billion
- EPS:$1.71, well above estimates in the $1.27–1.44 range
- Adjusted EBITDA: around $3.3 billion
- Free cash flow: about $1.6 billion, a record quarter
- Operating cash flow: about $2.3 billion, up roughly 40% year‑over‑year
- Cash & equivalents: around $5.6 billion
- Net debt: effectively near zero after retiring roughly $2 billion of debt in the quarter. [9]
Newmont also highlighted that free cash flow has exceeded $1 billion for four consecutive quarters, delivering around $4.5 billion year‑to‑date, even with the Newcrest integration still ramping. [10]
Guidance and Outlook from Q3
From its Q3 2025 results release and presentation, Newmont:
- Improved 2025 guidance for:
- G&A (down by about $85 million)
- Exploration and advanced projects (down by about $75 million)
- Lowered 2025 capital spending by $200 million, split between $150 million less sustaining capex and $50 million less development capex. [11]
- Kept 2025 cost guidance (CAS & AISC per ounce) broadly unchanged, noting lower corporate costs are being offset by higher royalties, production taxes and profit‑sharing tied to higher gold prices. [12]
- Indicated 2026 gold production should land at the lower end of the 2025 range, mainly due to mine sequencing, with lower output from Ahafo South expected to be largely replaced by new, low‑cost ounces from Ahafo North. [13]
Reuters also flagged that while Q3 beat expectations, Q4 free cash flow is expected to dip due to heavy spending on water treatment facilities at Yanacocha in Peru and severance payments linked to the global restructuring. [14]
Bottom line: operationally, Newmont is printing cash, but management is clear that near‑term free cash flow will be lumpy as one‑off restructuring and environmental investments flow through.
Newcrest Integration and “Project Catalyst”: 16% Workforce Impact
The most visible — and controversial — element of Newmont’s transformation is the company‑wide restructuring following the Newcrest deal.
A memo obtained by Reuters shows: [15]
- The restructuring has impacted about 16% of jobs across the company
- Cuts come via:
- Direct job eliminations
- Leaving vacancies unfilled
- Changing role levels rather than purely layoffs
- Reductions are focused on:
- ~12% fewer roles at “Level of Work 2” (superintendents, leads, specialists)
- ~10% fewer roles at “Level of Work 1” (advisors, officers, operators and maintainers)
- As of the end of 2024, Newmont had about 22,200 employees and ~20,400 contractors worldwide.
Internally, the restructuring is branded “Project Catalyst” and is meant to streamline the organization, speed decision‑making and improve productivity as the company shifts to a two‑business‑unit structure. [16]
Newmont emphasised that the restructuring:
- Was completed one month ahead of schedule to reduce uncertainty
- Is one of several steps in 2025 aimed at lowering the cost base and improving productivity, alongside divestitures and mine optimization. [17]
For shareholders, the cuts clearly underpin better margins and guidance. For employees and communities, they add social and political risk that investors need to watch, especially in sensitive jurisdictions.
Portfolio Clean‑Up: Divestitures and the Orla Stake Sale
To fund its capital returns and de‑risk the balance sheet, Newmont has been aggressively selling non‑core assets and equity stakes.
Key milestones:
- Sale of entire 43 million‑share stake in Orla Mining on September 19, 2025, for about $439 million at $10.14 per share, executed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. [18]
- Reuters notes this is part of Newmont’s broader plan to unlock over $2 billion in cash through portfolio optimization following the Newcrest acquisition, particularly by exiting smaller, higher‑cost Canadian operations like the Musselwhite mine. [19]
- A Zacks/Nasdaq analysis adds that Newmont completed its non‑core divestiture program in April 2025, including the sales of the Akyem (Ghana) and Porcupine (Canada) mines, and equity stakes in Greatland Resources and Discovery Silver, with around $3 billion in after‑tax proceeds expected from the 2025 divestiture program alone. [20]
These proceeds, together with rising operating cash flow, are being redeployed into:
- Debt reduction
- High‑return growth projects (like Ahafo North and Tanami expansion)
- Dividends and share buybacks.
Shareholder Returns: $6 Billion Buyback and a Stable Dividend
Massive Share Repurchase Program
Newmont has leaned hard into returning cash to shareholders via buybacks.
Company materials and Nasdaq/Zacks analysis show: [21]
- In February 2024, the board authorized a $1 billion stock repurchase program.
- In October 2024, it added another $2 billion, taking total authorization to $3 billion.
- On July 23, 2025, the board authorized an additional $3 billion, bringing total buyback firepower to $6 billion with no fixed expiry.
- By late Q3 2025, Newmont had:
- Generated over $3.5 billion of cash from asset and equity sales in 2025
- Used part of that to repurchase about $550 million of shares since July 24, 2025 alone, with total repurchases of around $2.1 billion in 2025 and $3.3 billion executed under the authorization so far. [22]
In total, Newmont reports having returned more than $5.7 billion to shareholders over the past two years through dividends and buybacks, while still ending Q3 with $9.6 billion of liquidity and near‑zero net debt. [23]
Dividend Policy
Newmont also maintains a regular quarterly dividend:
- Current quarterly dividend:$0.25 per share
- Forward annual payout:$1.00 per share
- Dividend yield: roughly 1.0–1.1%, depending on the share price
- Ex‑dividend date: most recently November 26, 2025
- Payout ratio: around 15–17%, leaving plenty of room for reinvestment and buybacks. [24]
Management has been clear that future dividends and buybacks will remain flexible, adjusted based on gold prices, project needs and balance‑sheet strength. [25]
Leadership Transition: Natascha Viljoen Steps In as CEO
Newmont is heading into 2026 with a new leader at the top.
On September 29, 2025, Newmont announced that CEO Tom Palmer will retire as CEO and leave the board on December 31, 2025, after leading the company through the Goldcorp and Newcrest deals and the creation of the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture. [26]
Key points from the company and regulatory filings:
- Natascha Viljoen, currently President & COO, will become President & CEO on January 1, 2026 and join the board as a non‑independent director.
- Palmer will stay on as strategic adviser until March 31, 2026 to support a smooth transition. [27]
- Viljoen is a veteran metallurgical engineer with 30+ years in mining, including as CEO of Anglo American Platinum and senior roles at BHP and Lonmin. [28]
Financial media such as the Financial Times and Reuters have framed the dual CEO changes at Newmont and rival Barrick as a pivotal moment for the gold industry, happening just as gold trades at record levels above $3,800–4,000 per ounce and investors demand better capital discipline. [29]
For Newmont shareholders, the transition looks like planned succession rather than crisis, but it does introduce a new variable for 2026: how aggressively Viljoen chooses to lean into growth projects versus further cash returns.
New Growth Engine: Ahafo North and Other Projects
Growth isn’t just about M&A. New projects are beginning to contribute:
- Ahafo North (Ghana) reached commercial production in 2025 after first gold in September.
- The project is expected to produce 275,000–325,000 ounces of gold per year for about 13 years, with 50,000 ounces expected in 2025 and a ramp up to full capacity by 2026. [30]
- Expansion projects like Tanami and optimization work at Cadia and Nevada Gold Mines are aimed at keeping Newmont’s portfolio heavily skewed toward long‑life, low‑cost Tier 1 assets. [31]
This combination — a cleaner portfolio, rising margins, and a visible pipeline of new ounces — is a big part of why analysts have turned bullish on NEM.
Wall Street View: Consensus “Buy” With Mixed Upside
Broker Ratings and Targets
Across major data providers, Newmont currently enjoys a broadly positive analyst consensus:
- MarketBeat:
- 22 analysts in the last 12 months
- Consensus rating: “Buy”
- Mix: 5 “Strong Buy”, 13 “Buy”, 4 “Hold”
- Average 12‑month price target:$96.37
- Target range: $40–125
- Average target implies a slight downside (~3–4%) versus a current price near $100. [32]
- StockAnalysis:
- Based on 9 analysts
- Rating: “Strong Buy”
- Average target:$99.33
- Range: $72 (low) to $125 (high)
- Average target implies the stock is roughly fairly valued at current levels. [33]
- Investing.com consensus estimates:
- 20 analysts
- Consensus rating: “Buy” (17 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell)
- Average target: about $106.98, with a range of $62–133, implying roughly 7% upside from recent prices. [34]
- Yahoo Finance’s ABR (Average Brokerage Recommendation):
- ABR around 1.38 on a 1–5 scale, where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Strong Sell
- This sits firmly in “Buy” leaning toward “Strong Buy” territory. [35]
Recent rating actions underscore the bullish tilt:
- UBS recently raised its target to $125 with a Buy / Strong Buy rating.
- Scotiabank upgraded Newmont from Hold to Buy with a target of $114.
- BNP Paribas trimmed its stance to Hold, with a more cautious $94–97 target range. [36]
Overall message from Wall Street: Newmont is a high‑quality gold and copper major, but after a huge price run, most analysts see moderate rather than explosive upside from current levels — unless gold prices continue to surprise to the upside.
Quant and Retail Price Models: Algorithms Are Cautious
Several algorithm‑driven sites that produce short‑term technical forecasts are more cautious than human analysts:
- CoinCodex models Newmont drifting down toward roughly $90–91 in the near term, implying a 3–5% pullback over the next few days from current levels. [37]
- Other model‑based sites like PandaForecast and Intellectia show wide ranges for 2025–2027, with some scenarios implying much lower prices if the gold cycle reverses. [38]
These automated forecasts should be treated as technical tools rather than fundamental research, but they do echo a simple idea: after a vertical move higher, volatility and consolidation are normal possibilities.
Macro Tailwind: The Gold Price Boom
Newmont’s earnings explosion is closely tied to an extraordinary gold rally in 2025.
Zacks and Nasdaq note that:
- Gold prices have surged around 60% in 2025, driven by trade tensions, aggressive new U.S. tariffs, central bank gold buying, and expectations of further interest‑rate cuts.
- Futures prices have pushed above $4,000 per ounce for the first time, with spot and futures trading near $4,300 recently. [39]
High gold prices have:
- Boosted Newmont’s realized price
- Inflated free cash flow and EPS
- Made its AISC (all‑in sustaining cost) reductions even more profitable — Q3 AISC fell about 2–3% year‑on‑year to around $1,566 per ounce, widening margins dramatically. [40]
The flip side is obvious: if gold prices normalize, Newmont’s earnings and cash flows will fall faster than those of a typical industrial company, because its margin expansion is heavily gold‑price‑driven.
Institutional Flows: Hedge Funds Rebalance, Pensions Buy
Recent regulatory filings summarised by MarketBeat highlight interesting “smart money” moves: [41]
- Slate Path Capital LP trimmed its position, selling about 370,000 shares, likely taking profits after the strong run.
- On the other hand, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) increased its stake by roughly 3.7%, to about 1.88 million shares, representing around 0.17% of Newmont.
- Overall, about 69% of Newmont’s shares are held by institutions and hedge funds, underlining its status as an institutional core holding rather than a speculative small‑cap.
This mix — some hedge funds locking in gains while large pensions add — fits with the “late‑cycle but still attractive” narrative: big money increasingly treats Newmont as a strategic gold exposure rather than a trade.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case for Newmont Stock
Bull Case: Why Optimists Like NEM Here
Supporters of Newmont stock point to several key positives:
- Record free cash flow & near‑zero net debt
- Four straight quarters with $1B+ free cash flow and $4.5B year‑to‑date in 2025.
- Net debt essentially eliminated and liquidity near $9.6B. [42]
- $6B buyback + sustainable dividend
- Large, flexible repurchase authorization with $3.3B already executed.
- Dividend with a modest ~1.1% yield and low payout ratio, leaving ample room for growth spending. [43]
- Tier 1 asset base with growth projects
- Ahafo North ramping to 275–325k oz/year.
- Ongoing expansion at key mines (Tanami, Cadia, Nevada Gold Mines). [44]
- Cost reductions and synergies from Newcrest and Project Catalyst
- Lower corporate overhead, improved G&A and exploration guidance, and a simpler operating structure. [45]
- Gold super‑cycle backdrop
- Rates trending lower, geopolitical risk higher, and central banks accumulating gold — all supportive for bullion, and thus for Newmont’s margins. [46]
For bulls, Newmont is essentially a cash‑gushing, low‑debt vehicle on the front line of the new gold cycle, with leadership and capital allocation increasingly focused on shareholder returns.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
More cautious investors highlight several risks:
- Valuation after a 70–130% rally
- Commentators at outlets like Forbes and Barron’s have questioned whether Newmont is overextended after more than doubling in price, noting that many analyst targets now sit close to the current share price. [47]
- Gold‑price risk
- A pullback from record gold prices could hit Newmont’s earnings disproportionately, especially after capex and restructuring decisions have been set assuming strong pricing. [48]
- Execution and integration risk
- Large-scale workforce reductions (16% of roles) and ongoing integration of Newcrest increase the risk of operational disruptions, safety incidents or community pushback. [49]
- Q4 cash flow dip and rising project spend
- Management has already warned that Q4 2025 free cash flow will be weaker, due to one‑off spending at Yanacocha and severance payments.
- 2026 is likely to see higher capital spending, especially as growth projects ramp. [50]
- Leadership transition uncertainty
- Even a well‑planned CEO succession can lead to shifts in strategy or capital allocation that the market does not immediately like. [51]
In short, skeptics see Newmont as a great company, but worry the stock may already be pricing in a lot of perfection.
What to Watch Into 2026
For investors tracking Newmont, key catalysts and indicators over the next 12–18 months include:
- Gold price trend
- Sustained prices above $3,500–4,000/oz would support current margins; a sharp correction would test Newmont’s resilience.
- Q4 2025 and full‑year 2026 guidance
- How deep is the Q4 cash‑flow dip?
- Does 2026 guidance confirm another year of $1B+ quarterly free cash flow, or something more modest?
- Ahafo North ramp‑up & other growth projects
- Hitting production targets at Ahafo North, Tanami and Nevada Gold Mines will be critical to offset lower output from older pits. [52]
- Further divestitures and capital allocation
- Will Newmont continue to prune non‑core assets?
- How aggressively will the company use the remaining $2–3B+ buyback capacity versus funding new projects? [53]
- CEO Natascha Viljoen’s early moves
- Investors will watch her first year for signals: maintain current discipline and continue buybacks, or pivot toward faster growth and higher capex.
Final Thoughts
Since November 21, 2025, Newmont stock (NEM) has raced higher on a potent mix of record free cash flow, gold’s historic rally, portfolio cleanup, and an aggressive $6B buyback program. At just under $100 per share, the company now trades near the top of its historical range and close to many analysts’ 12‑month targets, even as most brokerages still rate it a Buy. [54]
For investors who believe the gold super‑cycle has further to run and trust Newmont’s disciplined capital allocation, the stock remains a compelling way to get leveraged exposure to the metal with a strong balance sheet and a diversified, Tier 1‑heavy asset base. Those more cautious on gold or wary of buying after a big rally may prefer to wait for volatility or a deeper pullback.
Either way, Newmont has firmly re‑established itself as one of the pivotal global names to watch in gold and copper heading into 2026.
References
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