AdvancedMicro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD) just wrapped up one of its choppiest sessions in weeks — and yet, at first glance, the stock barely moved.
By the closing bell on Thursday, December 11, 2025, AMD finished essentially flat at about $221.41, with extended trading dipping only slightly to around $221.30. [1] Under the surface, though, there was a 5% intraday swing, heavy options activity, and a steady drumbeat of headlines about China export rules, Oracle’s AI spending, and questions about an “AI bubble.”
Here’s a detailed look at what happened to AMD after the bell on December 11 – and the key things traders and long‑term investors should watch before the U.S. market opens on Friday, December 12, 2025.
1. How AMD Traded on December 11: Big Volatility, Flat Close
Despite closing almost unchanged, AMD’s Thursday session was anything but quiet:
- Previous close: about $221.42 on December 10. [2]
- Intraday low: roughly $210.19, as selling accelerated late morning. [3]
- Intraday high: around $221.21 by mid‑afternoon, after a sharp rebound. [4]
- Official close:$221.41 at 3:59 p.m. ET. [5]
- After‑hours: trading just a hair lower near $221.30 by 4:14 p.m. ET. [6]
Midday analysis from AInvest pegged AMD down 2–3% at one point, trading near $214–216 with that $210.19–$217.81 intraday range and highlighting a backdrop of regulatory uncertainty and sector headwinds. [7]
Even after Thursday’s turbulence, AMD remains one of 2025’s standout AI winners:
- TipRanks notes AMD is still up more than 70% year‑to‑date, despite recent pullbacks. [8]
- Other performance trackers put total 2025 returns in the 80%+ range when dividends and reinvestment are included. [9]
In other words: Thursday felt like a sell‑off intraday — but by the close, AMD essentially shrugged it off.
2. The Morning Sell‑Off: Oracle’s Warning Shot and AI Bubble Jitters
The opening weakness in AMD wasn’t happening in a vacuum. It was part of a broader AI‑hardware shake‑out triggered by Oracle’s latest earnings.
Oracle’s results hit the whole AI stack
Oracle’s stock tumbled more than 10% on Thursday after its results and outlook stirred fears that hyperscale AI spending might be cooling or at least normalizing. Reuters and other outlets reported that Oracle’s revenue miss and worries about “circular” AI deals — where AI vendors spend with each other — stoked fresh AI‑bubble debate. [10]
Investopedia’s live “Dow Jones Today” coverage noted that Oracle’s plunge dragged down a cluster of AI hardware players, explicitly naming Advanced Micro Devices, Micron, and Broadcom as collateral damage. [11]
AInvest’s midday note on AMD made the same point from the chip side:
- Oracle’s weaker‑than‑expected numbers and AI spending signals helped spark AMD’s intraday 2–3% decline, as investors questioned how durable enterprise AI budgets will be into 2026. [12]
Valuation fears resurface
The AI‑bubble narrative also reappeared in broader commentary:
- Recent coverage highlights that AI‑linked chip names like AMD and Broadcom trade at triple‑digit price‑to‑earnings multiples, far above the broader market, which leaves little room for disappointment. [13]
For short‑term traders, that combo — expensive valuations + a high‑profile AI customer wobbling — was more than enough reason to hit the sell button early in the session.
3. The China Wild Card: Nvidia’s H200 Approval and AMD’s Regulatory Overhang
If Oracle was one punch to AMD sentiment, China export policy was the other.
Trump’s H200 decision changes the board
Earlier this week, President Trump said Nvidia will be allowed to sell its H200 AI chips in China, under a framework that sends 25% of those revenues to the U.S. government. [14]
Key points from that decision and follow‑up reporting:
- The H200 exports will proceed through a tight licensing and security review process, with chips routed via the U.S. before going on to China. [15]
- Earlier in 2025, both Nvidia and AMD had already agreed to a 15% revenue‑share on China chip sales to secure export licenses; the new 25% deal effectively raises that tax on certain advanced chips. [16]
- Critics in Washington argue the move could boost China’s AI capabilities and are calling for Nvidia’s CEO to testify, underlining how politicized these export decisions have become. [17]
Why this matters specifically for AMD
Right now, Nvidia is the one with concrete approval for H200 exports. AMD is still waiting in the wings.
Recent coverage from TipRanks pointed out that AMD rallied earlier this week when investors bet the same 25% revenue‑share rule would eventually extend to AMD’s Instinct AI accelerators, potentially reopening a huge Chinese market that had been largely off‑limits. [18]
But Thursday’s AInvest write‑ups focused on the flip side:
- Regulatory headlines are highlighting AMD’s exclusion from the current H200 framework, which makes the path for its MI300 line in China more uncertain. [19]
- Analysts are debating whether a 25% revenue‑share model on China sales will erode margins enough to offset the upside from reopening that market. [20]
Trefis went even further, arguing that AMD has become an “unintended victim” of two big news stories: the Nvidia China “unlock” and Oracle’s stumble. In their view:
- The old AMD “second source” narrative — Nvidia can’t serve everyone and can’t sell to China, so AMD picks up the slack — is fading.
- With Nvidia’s China access partially restored and major buyers like Oracle under pressure, AMD’s MI300 bull case faces its toughest test yet, especially given rich valuations. [21]
That combination of hope and uncertainty around China is one of the main reasons AMD traded like a ping‑pong ball all day.
4. What Turned AMD Around: A Powerful Order‑Flow Signal
Despite those macro and regulatory headwinds, AMD staged a sharp intraday rebound — and one highly watched trading signal got a lot of credit.
The “Power Inflow” alert
According to Benzinga’s TradePulse‑powered piece, AMD triggered a “Power Inflow” alert at 10:02 a.m. ET with the stock around $210.84 — after an early drop of roughly 2%. [22]
From there:
- Both institutional and retail order flow shifted decisively to the buy side, pushing AMD to a post‑signal high near $221.21 by mid‑afternoon. [23]
- That move represented nearly a 5% intraday gain off the lows, effectively erasing the earlier sell‑off. [24]
MarketBeat’s real‑time “Why Is AMD Down Today?” summary tied the day together neatly:
- Positive: that Power Inflow order‑flow signal and bullish coverage on AMD’s data‑center and OpenAI exposure. [25]
- Negative: spillover from Oracle’s earnings shock, plus reports of insider selling by an AMD executive worth about $2.19 million, which some traders viewed as a short‑term sentiment headwind. [26]
In short: quants and momentum traders bought the dip, and by the close, AMD looked calm — even though the path there was anything but.
5. Under the Hood: AMD’s Fundamentals Are Still AI‑Heavy
While Thursday’s tape was dominated by macro fear and regulatory noise, AMD’s fundamental story hasn’t changed much since its Q3 report and analyst day in November.
Q3 2025: Beat and raise on AI demand
On November 4, AMD reported:
- Q3 revenue of about $9.25 billion, beating Wall Street’s $8.74 billion expectation. [27]
- Data center revenue up 22% to $4.3 billion, driven by AI GPUs and EPYC CPUs. [28]
- PC client revenue up 46% to $2.8 billion as AI‑capable PCs and a Windows refresh cycle lifted demand. [29]
- Adjusted gross margin of 54%, slightly ahead of estimates. [30]
For Q4 2025, AMD guided:
- Revenue around $9.6 billion ± $300 million, implying roughly 25% year‑over‑year growth and 4% sequential growth, ahead of LSEG consensus at the time. [31]
- Non‑GAAP gross margin of about 54.5%, which some investors saw as solid but not spectacular given AI hype. [32]
AMD has also secured licenses to sell modified MI300‑series chips into China, though management has said shipments have not yet begun and are not baked into near‑term guidance. [33]
Analyst day: aiming for $100B in data‑center revenue
At its first major analyst day in three years, AMD laid out an aggressive long‑term AI roadmap:
- Management now expects data‑center chip revenue to reach about $100 billion annually within five years, with the overall business growing ~35% annually and data‑center revenue growing about 60% per year over the next 3–5 years. [34]
- AMD is targeting earnings per share of around $20 over that same multi‑year horizon. [35]
TrendForce and Reuters note that this growth is built on:
- The ramp of Instinct MI355 and MI450 accelerators in 2026. [36]
- A next‑generation MI400 family using HBM4 and offering dramatically higher bandwidth, followed by MI500 accelerators in 2027. [37]
- A series of AI‑focused acquisitions (ZT Systems, Enosemi, Brium, Untether AI and others) to deepen both hardware and software capabilities. [38]
Meanwhile, AMD’s multi‑year AI chip deal with OpenAI, which could involve hundreds of thousands of GPUs and potentially tens of billions in annual revenue over time, remains a central pillar of the long‑term bull case. [39]
6. Valuation and Wall Street Sentiment: Bullish but More Nuanced
Given that backdrop, how does Wall Street see AMD after Thursday’s fireworks?
Consensus: Still a “Strong Buy”
According to several aggregators:
- TipRanks: AMD carries a “Strong Buy” rating, with 28 Buy and 9 Hold ratings over the last three months and an average price target around $284, implying roughly 34% upside from current levels. [40]
- MarketBeat: Across 42 analysts, the average 12‑month target is about $278.54, with a range from roughly $140 to $380, implying around 26% upside from the ~$221 price point. [41]
- StockAnalysis: A separate dataset of 34 analysts shows a “Buy” consensus with an average target near $240, or mid‑single‑digit percentage upside. [42]
More detailed earnings forecasts generally look for:
- 2025 EPS around $3.1–4.0, up roughly 20% year over year. [43]
- 2026 EPS in the $5–6.5 range, as MI300/MI355 ramps and OpenAI‑related demand kicks in. [44]
Some high‑profile analysts and commentators go further:
- A recent Seeking Alpha note on AMD’s OpenAI partnership and data‑center dominance talked about a technical breakout and potential move toward $280–300, citing a gap‑up from a multi‑year ascending channel. [45]
- Another piece upgrading AMD on the “best‑case inference scenario” floated a $400 long‑term target, implying double‑digit annualized returns over 3–5 years if the AI thesis plays out. [46]
Skeptics focus on the “second source” narrative and software gap
On the cautious side:
- Trefis argues AMD trades at a premium multiple (they peg it around 50–60x 2025 earnings) because the market views it as a durable No. 2 to Nvidia in AI accelerators — a “Pepsi to Coke” scenario. They warn that if Nvidia’s renewed access to China and Oracle’s capex wobble squeeze AMD’s “second‑source” advantage, the stock may need to re‑rate lower. [47]
- They also highlight ROCm vs. CUDA: AMD’s software stack is improving, but if Nvidia’s export constraints ease, developers have less incentive to port away from CUDA — dulling one of AMD’s key long‑term differentiators. [48]
Short‑term technical analysis from AInvest backs up the “rich but fragile” view:
- AMD trades with a P/E in the 90x+ area, versus a semiconductor sector average in the low‑20s. [49]
- Key levels flagged include support near $210, the 200‑day moving average around $197, and resistance zones in the $218–$225 range. [50]
7. Key Things to Watch Before the December 12, 2025 Open
If you’re looking at AMD before Friday’s bell, here are the main checkboxes:
1. Follow‑through from Thursday’s AI shake‑out
- Watch whether Oracle stabilizes or continues to slide in pre‑market trading. Fresh weakness there could keep pressure on AI infrastructure names like AMD, Nvidia, Micron and Broadcom. [51]
- Monitor overall risk sentiment after the latest Federal Reserve meeting and rate cut; if investors stay nervous about growth and stretched AI valuations, high‑beta names like AMD tend to swing harder. [52]
2. Any overnight headlines on China export rules
- Markets will be hypersensitive to any sign that the Commerce Department is extending H200‑style approvals to AMD or tightening them further. TipRanks notes that confirmation of comparable export rights could quickly be incorporated into new earnings models — and potentially trigger renewed upside. [53]
- Conversely, more political pushback — for example, from lawmakers criticizing the Nvidia deal — could introduce additional headline risk for all advanced AI chip exports, including AMD. [54]
3. Sector read‑through from Broadcom and Micron
- Broadcom’s latest results and AI commentary, released after the close on Thursday, are an important sentiment barometer for AI infrastructure demand into 2026. [55]
- Micron’s massive YTD gain and raised targets, driven by AI‑oriented memory demand, also underscore how deeply the AI cycle is embedded across the semiconductor stack that AMD participates in. [56]
A strong or upbeat tone from these peers tends to support AMD’s long‑term AI thesis, even if near‑term volatility remains elevated.
4. Technical levels in the pre‑market
Based on Thursday’s action and technical read‑outs:
- Support to watch:
- The $210 zone, which marked the intraday low.
- The 200‑day moving average near $197 — a deeper line in the sand if selling resumes. [57]
- Near‑term resistance:
- The $218–$225 band, where AInvest flagged short‑term resistance and where Thursday’s rebound began to stall. [58]
If AMD holds above $210 and buyers step in during pre‑market or at the open, traders may frame Thursday’s move as a “shake‑out and reset” rather than the start of a deeper correction. A break below that support, particularly on heavy volume, would tilt the near‑term bias more clearly bearish.
5. Options and volatility
AInvest highlighted elevated options activity, including multiple contracts with implied volatility above 40–45% and aggressive leverage near the $220 call and $205 put strikes expiring December 19. [59]
While those specifics can change quickly, they underscore one thing: short‑dated AMD options are not cheap, and positioning looks split between traders betting on a rebound and those hedging against further regulatory or macro shocks.
8. Bottom Line: High‑Quality AI Story, Higher Bar
Putting it all together:
- Near term (days to weeks):
- AMD is caught between a robust fundamental AI growth story and rising skepticism about AI spending, valuations, and export rules.
- Thursday’s tape showed how quickly sentiment can swing: Oracle’s earnings and Nvidia’s China news hit the stock hard intraday, but order‑flow signals and dip‑buying basically erased the decline by the close.
- Medium to long term (2026 and beyond):
- AMD’s own guidance and analyst‑day goals — Q4 revenue acceleration, 60% data‑center growth, and a path toward $100B in data‑center revenue within five years — remain intact for now. [60]
- Multi‑year AI partnerships with OpenAI, hyperscalers, and server vendors could support that trajectory if export rules and competition cooperate. [61]
The risk/reward trade‑off is simple to state but harder to stomach:
AMD is priced as a long‑term AI winner — which means every new headline about AI spending, China policy, or Nvidia’s dominance will keep the stock volatile.
For anyone watching AMD before the December 12 open, the key is not just where the stock prints in pre‑market, but why: Is the market reacting to a changing long‑term thesis, or just digesting another noisy day in a very crowded trade?
References
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