Netflix stock has turned into one of the market’s most hotly debated tickers again, as investors digest a massive Warner Bros. bid, political blowback, fresh analyst downgrades and unusually heavy options trading – all against a backdrop of a brand‑new 10‑for‑1 stock split and record‑high U.S. equity indices.
Below is a detailed look at how Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) traded after the bell on December 11, 2025, what drove the move, and the key storylines to watch before the U.S. market opens on Friday, December 12.
- How Netflix Stock Traded on December 11 – Regular Session and After Hours
Price and volume
Netflix shares closed around $94.09 on Thursday, up about 1.5% on the day, snapping a sharp six‑day slide that had knocked roughly 15% off the stock.
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In extended trading, the stock hovered near the same level, with quotes around $94–$94.30 shortly after the closing bell – essentially flat to slightly higher versus the official close.
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Trading was active: Netflix saw over 43 million shares change hands, above its recent average of roughly 41 million.
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For context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 closed at record highs on December 11 while the Nasdaq ended lower on tech weakness tied to Oracle, underscoring that Netflix’s move is happening in a very bullish but increasingly selective market for growth tech.
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Valuation snapshot after the close
Based on MarketBeat’s data late Thursday:
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Market cap: ≈ $399 billion
Trailing P/E: ~39x
PEG ratio: ~1.4
52‑week range (post‑split): $82.11 – $134.12
Consensus 12‑month price target: about $130.9, implying ~39% upside from the mid‑$90s level
Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” (most analysts still in the Buy camp, but with a growing Hold cluster)
That leaves NFLX trading at a premium to the broader market and to the average consumer‑discretionary stock, but with a still‑sizable gap between price and sell‑side targets – a gap that is narrowing as analysts revise down forecasts following the Warner Bros. deal.
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- The Warner Bros. Mega‑Deal: The Core Driver of Netflix Volatility
At the heart of Thursday’s move – and the prior six‑day slide – is Netflix’s proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery’s studio and streaming businesses.
Deal structure and strategic logic
Netflix has agreed to acquire Warner Bros. (following the planned separation of Discovery’s global networks) for a total enterprise value of about $82.7 billion, implying roughly $72 billion of equity value.
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The deal includes world‑class IP such as Harry Potter, DC, Game of Thrones, HBO, Friends and WB Games, making Netflix not just the top global streamer but also a full‑fledged Hollywood studio powerhouse.
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Netflix has committed to a multi‑billion dollar break‑up fee if regulators block the transaction, signalling high conviction but also significant downside risk if approval fails.
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Strategically, bullish analysts argue that the deal:
Supercharges Netflix’s content library and franchise depth,
Creates major cost synergies (estimated at $2–3 billion annually within three years), and
Could cement Netflix as the undisputed leader in global subscription video.
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Political and regulatory backlash
But the transaction is already drawing heavy fire:
The U.S. Department of Justice and European regulators are expected to scrutinize the merger intensely on antitrust grounds, with critics arguing a combined Netflix‑Warner entity could exceed a 30–40% share of premium streaming.
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President Donald Trump has publicly questioned the deal, with Reuters reporting that the administration wants a hard look at the competitive and political implications – including what happens to CNN, which Warner plans to spin off separately.
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Hollywood unions and writers’ groups have come out strongly against the merger, warning about job losses and studio consolidation, and some are openly calling for the deal to be blocked.
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This regulatory overhang is a key reason why several brokers have cut price targets or downgraded NFLX in the past week.
Paramount’s hostile counter‑bid
Complicating everything is Paramount Skydance’s hostile offer for Warner Bros. Discovery:
Paramount has tabled an all‑cash $30‑per‑share bid for all of Warner Bros. Discovery, compared with Netflix’s $27.75 per‑share offer for only the studio and streaming assets.
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In a hard‑hitting letter sent today, Paramount CEO David Ellison urged Warner shareholders to reject Netflix’s lower‑cash, higher‑regulatory‑risk proposal, describing Paramount’s offer as “superior” and emphasizing its greater upfront cash component and perceived easier regulatory path.
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The Paramount letter reinforces a core bear argument on Netflix: that the company is overpaying and over‑leveraging for Warner Bros., while potentially still losing the asset if a higher all‑cash bid prevails.
- What Wall Street Said About Netflix on December 11
Analysts and commentators spent much of Thursday re‑marking their models and updating calls on Netflix. Several of the day’s most notable fresh takes:
3.1 TipRanks: “$83 Billion admission of long‑term headwinds”
A widely shared TipRanks piece highlighted that NFLX shares rose about 1.4% in pre‑market trading despite yet another price‑target cut, ending a six‑day slide that had wiped out 15% of the stock’s value.
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Key points from that analysis:
Seaport Research’s David Joyce cut his Netflix target from $138 to $115, still rating the stock a Buy but warning that the Warner deal forces investors to rethink the long‑term growth and margin profile.
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Pivotal Research’s Jeffrey Wlodarczak downgraded NFLX to Hold, calling the Warner transaction an “$83 billion admission of long‑term headwinds”, including intensifying competition from short‑form platforms like TikTok.
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In short: the article captures the new bear case – that management is paying a massive price because organic growth in streaming is maturing.
3.2 Jefferies trims target, stays bullish
Separately, Jefferies lowered its Netflix price target from $150 to $134, but reiterated a Buy rating, arguing that investors should stay selective in internet stocks but that Netflix’s underlying business remains strong despite higher investment and AI‑related concerns.
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3.3 MarketBeat: options frenzy and insider selling
A new MarketBeat note flagged “unusually high options volume” in Netflix on Thursday:
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Traders bought roughly 270,000 call options, about 31% above the average call volume.
The article also notes that shares traded up to about $94.69 intraday and recaps heavy insider selling over the past 90 days – about 1.6 million shares sold by insiders, worth roughly $182 million – even as institutions still control over 80% of the float.
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This mix – elevated bullish options bets but rising short interest and insider selling – underscores how polarized sentiment has become.
3.4 Big‑picture analyses: from “Debtflix” fears to long‑term optimism
Among longer‑form pieces landing today:
A comprehensive PredictStreet report, “Netflix (NFLX): Navigating a Transformative Future in the Streaming Wars,” describes Netflix as still a streaming leader with 300M+ global subscribers, an $18 billion 2025 content budget, and powerful ad‑tier and gaming growth levers, but also highlights rising debt, regulatory risk and execution challenges from the Warner deal.
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A separate analysis warns that Netflix may become “Debtflix” again as it layers on tens of billions in new borrowing to finance the Warner acquisition, reversing years of deleveraging.
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On the bullish side, a new Seeking Alpha article titled “Netflix and Warner Bros.: Forget the Noise, Let’s Reason From First Principles” argues the deal is value‑accretive for both Netflix and WBD, with the author suggesting that bearish sentiment on NFLX is “overblown” relative to the long‑term strategic benefits of owning Warner’s IP.
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Barron’s published a companion piece earlier in the day under the theme “Buy the Dip”, noting that the stock’s ~13–15% slide since the deal was announced has pushed valuation back toward more reasonable levels for long‑term investors.
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Put simply, December 11’s research flow didn’t settle the debate – it amplified it. Bears see an over‑levered empire builder; bulls see the foundation of a content juggernaut selling at a discount to its new potential.
- Netflix’s Fundamentals: What Q3 2025 Still Tells Us
Amid all the deal noise, it’s worth remembering what the latest earnings actually showed.
According to Netflix’s Q3 2025 shareholder letter and related commentary:
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Revenue: about $11.5 billion, up roughly 17% year‑over‑year, broadly in line with consensus.
Diluted EPS: $5.87, up from $5.40 a year earlier but below Street expectations near $6.9–7.0, largely due to one‑off items and higher‑than‑expected costs.
Operating margin: compressed versus prior guidance, partly due to a specific accounting adjustment, but management reiterated full‑year margin targets.
Free cash flow: strong, with Netflix still on track for multi‑billion‑dollar annual FCF supported by price hikes, password‑sharing monetization and a rapidly scaling advertising business.
Ad‑supported tier: management and industry trackers highlighted rapid growth in Netflix’s ad tier, which has doubled advertising revenue year‑over‑year and is projected to double again in 2025, becoming a key high‑margin growth engine.
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These fundamentals are a big part of why consensus forecasts still call for earnings to grow more than 20% next year, and why many firms maintain Buy ratings even as they trim price targets.
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- New Competitive Threat: YouTube TV’s Cheaper Bundles
One fresh concern for Netflix investors heading into 2026 – and highlighted in several analyses today – is YouTube TV’s new pricing strategy.
Google (Alphabet) announced new “YouTube TV Plans”: genre‑based bundles (sports, news, family and more) that break the current $82.99/month full package into 10+ smaller, cheaper channel groups slated to launch in early 2026.
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A TipRanks note titled “YouTube TV Plans Bring Lower Prices and New Risk for Netflix Investors” points out that many of these new bundles may fall into the same monthly price band as Netflix’s plans ($7.99 ad‑tier up to $24.99 ad‑free). That means YouTube’s lower‑entry live TV offers could compete directly for households’ limited streaming budgets.
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The piece stresses that while Netflix and YouTube TV serve different use cases (on‑demand vs. live TV/sports), the combination of YouTube’s dominant U.S. TV viewing share and cheaper bundles could limit Netflix’s pricing power over time – especially now that Netflix is taking on more debt to finance Warner.
For investors watching pre‑market trading on December 12, any new headlines tying YouTube’s plans to Netflix’s growth or pricing narrative could move NFLX and other streaming names.
- Soft Factors: Brand Expansion and Political Scrutiny
Netflix House Dallas: experiential expansion
On the corporate‑development front, Netflix also announced today that Netflix House Dallas is now open at the Galleria Dallas mall – the company’s second permanent “Netflix House” experiential venue.
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The site spans more than 100,000 square feet and hosts immersive experiences, themed food & beverage and retail around Netflix IP.
It follows a broader strategy to expand into experiential entertainment and live events, which the company and several analysts see as an incremental brand and engagement lever rather than a near‑term profit driver.
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While unlikely to move the stock by itself, the opening underlines Netflix’s push to monetize its franchises beyond the screen – something that becomes even more significant if Warner’s IP joins the fold.
Congressional trading controversy
Separately, the New York Post reported that Representative Cleo Fields (D‑La.) quietly purchased between $500,000 and $1.25 million of Netflix stock between late October and late November, just weeks before the Warner deal was announced. With NFLX down roughly 17% since those trades, the story has added political scrutiny and is feeding into the broader debate over banning stock trading by members of Congress.
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On its own this doesn’t change Netflix’s fundamentals, but it adds another wrinkle to the already politically charged narrative around the Warner transaction.
- Macro Backdrop Heading Into December 12
The Netflix story is playing out against a macro backdrop that could influence risk appetite at Friday’s open:
The Federal Reserve just delivered a 25‑basis‑point rate cut, moving the federal‑funds target range to 3.50–3.75%, while signaling caution about further near‑term easing.
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Weekly U.S. jobless claims jumped by 44,000 to 236,000 for the week ending December 6 – the largest increase in about 4½ years – though economists attribute much of the spike to seasonal adjustment noise around the holidays rather than a sudden weakening in the labor market.
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Despite pockets of concern about AI‑related capex and tech valuations (exacerbated this week by Oracle’s results), the Dow and S&P 500 closed at fresh record highs today, underscoring still‑strong risk appetite for equities overall.
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For Netflix, lower rates are generally supportive of long‑duration growth stories and high‑multiple stocks. But the company’s planned step‑up in leverage for the Warner deal also makes it more sensitive to any reversal in the rates trend.
- What to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 12, 2025
Here are the key Netflix‑specific and macro factors investors will likely focus on overnight and into the pre‑market:
- Any new headlines on the Warner Bros. bidding war
Updates from Warner Bros. Discovery’s board or major shareholders reacting to Paramount’s letter.
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Signals from Netflix management or regulators about openness to deal conditions, such as divestitures or behavioral remedies.
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Even a single new quote from regulators, the White House, or Warner’s board could swing expectations for deal odds – and by extension, Netflix’s perceived risk profile.
- Analyst moves and fresh research
Given that 32 research reports have hit Netflix in the past 90 days, and Thursday already brought further trims, markets will watch for:
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Additional price‑target cuts or rating changes, particularly from big houses that haven’t updated post‑deal yet.
New sum‑of‑the‑parts or “pro‑forma Netflix+Warner” valuation models, which could either validate or challenge current price targets in the $115–$135 range.
- Options positioning and short interest
With 270,000+ call contracts traded today – about 31% above normal – and short interest up over 400% month‑over‑month, Friday’s session is set up for potentially sharp intraday swings if news hits either side of the bull/bear narrative.
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Traders will watch:
Whether call buyers roll positions or take profits early in the session.
How the stock behaves around recent support (low $90s) and the post‑split 52‑week low ($82.11).
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- Macro and sector tone
Given the nervousness around AI‑driven capex and expensive tech multiples, any overnight developments in big‑cap tech or AI infrastructure could spill into Netflix, which increasingly trades as part of the broader “streaming & AI‑enabled consumer tech” complex.
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If futures point to continued strength in cyclicals and value but weakness in richly valued growth, Netflix’s open could diverge from the Dow’s record‑high trajectory.
- Content and engagement catalysts
Friday also brings a fresh wave of high‑profile content on Netflix, including the much‑anticipated third Knives Out film, “Wake Up Dead Man,” plus new seasons and international originals that feature prominently in December’s slate.
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While individual releases rarely move the stock by themselves, strong reception can reinforce the argument that Netflix’s content pipeline remains a durable moat, especially as it prepares to integrate Warner’s IP.
- How to Frame Netflix Here (Without Giving You a “Buy” or “Sell”)
This article can’t and shouldn’t tell you to buy, hold, or sell NFLX. That’s a decision that depends on your own financial situation, risk tolerance and time horizon.
What we can do is summarize the key questions different types of investors might ask themselves before the December 12 open:
If you’re a long‑term Netflix bull…
You’re probably focused on:
Whether the Warner Bros. acquisition ultimately closes, giving Netflix unmatched IP and content scale.
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The trajectory of ad‑tier monetization, gaming initiatives and international growth, which multiple analyses see driving double‑digit revenue and 20%+ earnings growth over the next few years.
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The fact that consensus price targets still sit near $130+, implying sizeable upside from the mid‑$90s, even after this week’s cuts.
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If you’re more cautious or bearish…
You’re likely worrying about:
The risk that regulators or politics kill or severely condition the Warner deal, leaving Netflix with sunk transaction costs, a bruised balance sheet, or a weaker hand in bargaining for other assets.
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The prospect of “re‑leveraging Netflix” – returning to the “Debtflix” era – just as YouTube TV introduces cheaper bundles and short‑form competitors fight harder for attention.
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Signals from insiders and short sellers: notable insider selling, rising short interest and a news‑sentiment score that MarketBeat ranks below the average for consumer‑discretionary peers.
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For either side…
Everyone should be aware that post‑split, mega‑cap, news‑driven stocks like NFLX can move very quickly, especially when:
Options activity is elevated,
Regulatory headlines are uncertain, and
The underlying business remains fundamentally strong but controversial in how it’s being steered.
Final note
All prices and data above are as of the afternoon and early evening of Thursday, December 11, 2025, and may change by the time you read this. This article is for informational and news purposes only, and nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
If you’re considering trading Netflix around this volatile period, it’s wise to:
Review Netflix’s own shareholder materials and SEC filings,
Read a range of analyst opinions (both bullish and bearish), and
Consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser who understands your personal situation.
