Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR) – the company formerly known as MicroStrategy and now best known as the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin – closed a tense Thursday session firmly in the red, then clawed back a sliver of ground in after‑hours trading. [1]
At the close on December 11, 2025, MSTR finished regular trading at $183.30, down about 0.7% on the day, with a wide intraday range between $171.41 and $183.50 and heavy volume of roughly 19 million shares. [2] Shortly after the bell, the stock ticked higher in the extended session to around $185.20, up just over 1% from the close. [3]
That modest bounce comes against a brutal backdrop: MSTR is down nearly 50% over the past year, trading about 60% below its 52‑week high near $457, and has surrendered more than a third of its value year‑to‑date. [4] All of this is happening as:
- Bitcoin has crashed from record highs above $126,000 to the low $90,000s and briefly below $90,000,
- MSCI considers rules that could push MSTR out of major global equity indices, and
- The Nasdaq 100 rebalancing window opens, raising questions about Strategy’s place in the flagship tech benchmark. [5]
Here’s what happened after the bell on December 11 – and what investors will be watching closely before the U.S. market opens on Friday, December 12, 2025.
1. Strategy Inc stock today: price action after the bell
Regular session (Dec 11, 2025)
- Close: $183.30
- Change: −$1.34 (−0.73%)
- Day range: $171.41 – $183.50
- Volume: ~19.1 million shares vs ~15.3 million average
- 52‑week range: $155.61 – $457.22
- Beta: just over 3.4 (very high volatility vs the market). [6]
After‑hours session (as of ~4:40 p.m. ET)
- After‑hours quote: about $185.20, up ~1.0% from the close. [7]
The intraday pattern mirrored Bitcoin: MSTR dipped sharply in the morning as BTC slipped below $90,000, then recovered some ground as crypto stabilized near the close. [8]
From a positioning perspective, MSTR now trades below the value of its Bitcoin holdings on some mNAV measures, a reversal from prior years when the stock commanded a large premium. Several recent analyses estimate that Strategy’s enterprise value is now at or even slightly under the market value of its Bitcoin stash, a key shift for a company that has long pitched itself as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy rather than a simple tracker. TechStock²+1
2. Bitcoin slides below $90,000 – why it matters for MSTR tomorrow
Going into Friday’s open, the single most important variable for MSTR remains Bitcoin’s overnight trade.
On December 11, Bitcoin:
- Dropped below $90,000, trading around $90,000–$90,500 after a 2–3% intraday slide. [9]
- Is now roughly 25–30% below its October all‑time high above $126,000. [10]
- Has effectively wiped out its gains for 2025, prompting some long‑time bulls (including Standard Chartered) to cut their year‑end 2025 price target from $200,000 to around $100,000. [11]
The slide is being linked to:
- A “hawkish” Federal Reserve rate cut in December that cooled hopes for aggressive easing in 2026. [12]
- Fresh concerns about AI‑driven tech spending after Oracle’s weaker‑than‑expected guidance, which hit risk appetite across tech and crypto. [13]
- Forced liquidations: multiple reports flag hundreds of millions of dollars in leveraged long positions wiped out as BTC fell through key levels, amplifying volatility. [14]
For Strategy Inc, the implications into tomorrow’s session are straightforward:
- BTC is still the primary driver of MSTR’s daily moves. Recent datapoints show the stock’s beta comfortably above 3, and its price often moves more than twice as much as Bitcoin on big days, in either direction. [15]
- With BTC hovering around the $90,000 support area, any overnight break decisively below $90k – or an aggressive rebound – is likely to dominate MSTR’s pre‑market action on December 12. [16]
3. MSCI’s proposed 50% crypto limit: the index‑exclusion overhang
One of the biggest narrative shifts this week is not on the Bitcoin chart but in the index committee meeting rooms.
MSCI has proposed a rule that would exclude companies whose assets are more than 50% in crypto from key global equity benchmarks. Strategy, whose balance sheet now includes around 660,000+ BTC worth roughly $60–61 billion, sits squarely in the crosshairs. [17]
Recent reporting highlights several key points:
- Strategy has formally challenged the proposal, sending a detailed 12‑page response to MSCI’s Equity Index Committee arguing that the rule is discriminatory and would create instability for investors. [18]
- The company warns that because U.S. GAAP and IFRS treat Bitcoin differently, a simple “50% of assets” line could cause companies to flip in and out of indices based on BTC price swings, creating “whiplash” for index funds. [19]
- JPMorgan estimates that an MSCI exclusion alone could force around $2.8 billion in passive fund selling, and possibly as much as $8.8 billion if other index providers adopt similar rules. [20]
- MSCI’s consultation period runs through December 31, 2025, with a final decision expected by January 15 ahead of February rebalancing. [21]
From a Friday‑morning trading perspective, the MSCI saga matters less as a one‑day catalyst and more as a sentiment anchor:
- Every headline about “crypto‑heavy firms facing index expulsion” reinforces the idea that MSTR’s risk isn’t only Bitcoin volatility – it’s forced index outflows. [22]
- Traders are likely to react strongly to any leak, blog post, or analyst note that hints at how MSCI is leaning before January. Those information drips can show up in the tape well before the official announcement.
4. Nasdaq 100 rebalancing: will Strategy keep its seat at the big table?
At the same time, Strategy’s place in the Nasdaq 100 is under review as part of the annual reconstitution.
Investor’s Business Daily reports that MSTR shares fell on Thursday specifically ahead of the Nasdaq 100 reshuffle, with investors weighing whether the index might eject Strategy given its unique profile as a quasi‑financial Bitcoin vehicle. [23]
Key elements from that coverage:
- The Nasdaq 100 traditionally excludes pure financial firms, and some index watchers argue that a company whose core economic exposure is a huge Bitcoin position plus financing vehicles is drifting toward that category. [24]
- Strategy’s executives counter that they are not a passive fund, but an operating business that issues digital instruments and preferred stock to support a broader corporate Bitcoin strategy – more akin to a bank or insurer than an ETF. [25]
- The index provider has not announced any changes yet, but MSTR has already lost more than half its value since joining the Nasdaq 100, making it vulnerable to screening rules around market cap, liquidity and sector classification. [26]
Why this matters for Friday’s open:
- Many large funds and ETFs track the Nasdaq 100 and must buy or sell components mechanically. Even the expectation of removal can influence positioning ahead of an official decision.
- IBD and other outlets stress that billions in passive assets are linked to indices where MSTR is currently a component; if traders become convinced index removal is likely, they may front‑run those flows with additional selling. [27]
Any hints overnight about the Nasdaq 100 membership list could therefore show up directly in MSTR’s pre‑market moves on December 12.
5. A surprise $1 billion Bitcoin buy – Strategy doubles down into the crash
Despite the market turmoil, Strategy has not backed away from its core playbook. In fact, it just dialed it up.
Between December 1 and December 7, the company:
- Bought 10,624 BTC
- Spent almost $1 billion
- Paid an average of roughly $90,615 per coin
- Bringing total Bitcoin holdings to over $60.6 billion at recent prices and around 660,624 BTC, roughly 3% of the total supply. The Economist+3TechStock²+3TechStock²+3
Coverage from Barron’s, TS2 and others emphasizes that:
- This is Strategy’s largest single purchase in months, arriving right after a “panicky selloff” that briefly knocked MSTR toward the mid‑$150s and BTC below $90,000. TechStock²+2Barron’s+2
- The buy was funded mostly with new equity and preferred stock issuance rather than cash from operations, continuing a pattern where the company issues securities to raise capital whenever market conditions allow. TechStock²+2CoinDesk+2
Why it matters going into tomorrow:
- The purchase reaffirms management’s conviction: Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le are signaling that sub‑$95k Bitcoin is still an attractive accumulation zone for them, even after a 2025 roller‑coaster. TechStock²+224/7 Wall St.+2
- At the same time, critics note that roughly 90%+ of recent BTC buys have been funded by new share issuance at a time when MSTR trades near or below its Bitcoin net asset value, which can dilute existing shareholders. TechStock²+1
Traders will be watching closely on Friday to see whether this “buy the crash” headline continues to attract dip‑buyers, or whether concerns about dilution and index risk overshadow the bullish optics of a billion‑dollar bet.
6. Analysts, ratings and price targets after a 60% rout
Despite the sell‑off, Wall Street’s published stance on MSTR remains broadly bullish.
According to recent LSEG and MarketBeat data summarized by Reuters and others:
- 16 brokerages currently cover Strategy.
- Around 10 rate it a “Buy”, 4 a “Strong Buy”, and 2 a “Hold”.
- The median 12‑month price target is about $485, implying roughly 180% upside from current levels. [28]
Recent analyst moves include:
- Cantor Fitzgerald cut its target by almost 60%, from $560 to $229, citing falling Bitcoin prices and a collapse in the premium that digital‑asset treasury companies like Strategy used to enjoy. But the firm maintained an “Overweight” (Buy) rating, arguing that the drawdown looks more like a violent correction than the start of a permanent “crypto winter.” [29]
- Investor’s Business Daily and Bloomberg have dubbed Strategy “Wall Street’s favorite stock,” highlighting that consensus targets still imply well over 150% potential upside and that some bullish models bake in Bitcoin price scenarios as high as $225,000 by 2026. [30]
On the other side:
- Skeptical research from FXStreet, Reuters and others stresses that the mNAV premium has flipped into a discount, that institutional giants like Vanguard and BlackRock have trimmed positions, and that spot Bitcoin ETFs have eroded Strategy’s unique role as a gateway to BTC. TechStock²+2Reuters+2
- Seeking Alpha’s latest note even carries the blunt title “Strategy: Don’t Buy the Dip,” framing MSTR as a risky leveraged bet still trading above a simplified Bitcoin NAV estimate. [31]
For Friday’s open, the key takeaway is that Street targets remain high, but the distribution of views has widened sharply. Any new analyst notes or target changes released overnight could quickly filter into pre‑market sentiment.
7. Balance sheet, leverage – and the new possibility of selling Bitcoin
One of the most consequential recent developments is a shift in management rhetoric: for the first time, Strategy’s leadership has openly acknowledged that selling Bitcoin is possible under certain conditions.
Highlights from Reuters, CoinTelegraph, 24/7 Wall St. and related coverage:
- CEO Phong Le told the What Bitcoin Did podcast that Strategy could sell Bitcoin to fund dividend and interest obligations if its mNAV ratio falls below 1.0x (stock trades at or below the value of its BTC) and capital markets access dries up. [32]
- This marks a significant evolution from Michael Saylor’s long‑standing “never sell” messaging and has been interpreted by some investors as a pragmatic but unsettling acknowledgment of financial constraints. [33]
At the same time, Strategy has moved to shore up its balance sheet:
- It slashed full‑year guidance from a previous headline forecast of around $24 billion in net profit (assuming Bitcoin at $150,000) to a much wider range between about $6.3 billion profit and a $5.5 billion loss, underscoring how sensitive reported earnings are to BTC’s path. [34]
- The company created a $1.44 billion cash reserve specifically earmarked for paying interest on debt and dividends on newly issued preferred stock, enough to cover roughly 21 months of obligations. [35]
- Total debt sits around $8.2 billion, mostly in convertible notes with major maturities starting in 2027, while annual interest plus preferred dividends are estimated in the $800+ million range. TechStock²+2Reuters+2
The message heading into December 12:
- Strategy still has substantial buffers and flexibility via equity and preferred issuance, and does not appear to face an imminent liquidity crisis. TechStock²+1
- But the company is now explicitly acknowledging that, in a severe stress scenario where the stock trades persistently below NAV and funding options dry up, Bitcoin sales become a “last resort” tool – a line in the sand that many investors will track closely. [36]
Any fresh commentary overnight – especially follow‑up interviews or blog posts clarifying those remarks – could influence how the market prices tail‑risk scenarios at tomorrow’s open.
8. What to watch before the market opens on December 12, 2025
As traders and long‑term investors prepare for Friday, here are the key variables to monitor pre‑market:
1. Bitcoin’s overnight price and liquidity
- Is BTC holding the $90,000 area, bouncing toward $95,000, or breaking lower toward $85,000 or $80,000?
- Watch for new liquidation waves or signs that selling is slowing – several on‑chain and derivatives trackers are already flagging heavy long liquidations and thin order books. [37]
- For MSTR, a sharp overnight BTC move is likely to matter more than anything else when the opening bell rings.
2. Any new MSCI or index‑provider commentary
- Formal decisions won’t come until mid‑January, but briefings, leaks, or broker research on MSCI’s thinking can easily move the stock ahead of time. [38]
- Pay attention to headlines mentioning “digital asset treasury” rules, 50% thresholds, or index classification as funds.
3. Nasdaq 100 rebalancing chatter
- Overnight notes from index desks or ETF strategists around the Nasdaq 100 reshuffle may hint at whether Strategy is likely to stay or go. [39]
- Any strong indication of removal could spark pre‑emptive selling by traders who expect QQQ and related funds to unload shares.
4. Flows in leveraged MSTR ETFs and peers
- Reuters has highlighted that leveraged ETFs tied to MSTR have lost nearly 85% of their value this year, while the inverse product is also deep in the red – a sign of just how violent the volatility has been. [40]
- Large overnight prints or unusual activity in these ETFs can foreshadow hedging flows into the underlying stock at the open.
5. Fresh analyst notes, target changes, or rating actions
- With the stock down 50–60% from its peak yet still carrying a consensus “Buy” rating and median target near $485, any downgrades, target cuts, or high‑profile defenses could move sentiment quickly. [41]
6. Macro: Fed narrative, AI earnings and broader risk sentiment
- Bitcoin’s latest slump has been closely tied to Fed messaging and disappointment around AI‑driven cloud revenue, particularly after Oracle’s results. [42]
- If global equity futures or tech‑heavy indices point sharply up or down before the open, MSTR is likely to amplify those moves thanks to its high beta.
9. Bottom line: how Strategy Inc enters December 12, 2025
Going into Friday’s U.S. session, Strategy Inc sits at the junction of three powerful forces:
- A Bitcoin market in correction, with price hovering around $90,000 after a 25–30% drawdown from October’s highs. [43]
- An index‑flow and regulatory squeeze, as MSCI and potentially other providers weigh whether Bitcoin‑heavy treasuries belong in mainstream equity benchmarks and the Nasdaq 100 undertakes its annual rebalancing. [44]
- A leveraged capital structure, featuring tens of billions in Bitcoin, billions in convertible debt and high‑coupon preferreds, a $1.44 billion cash reserve, and management now openly contemplating Bitcoin sales as a last resort if funding channels close. yellow.com+3TechStock²+3Reuters+3
For traders, that mix means elevated volatility into the December 12 open. For longer‑term investors, the current price around the low $180s reflects a market that is:
- Pricing in substantial risk around index exclusion, dilution and Bitcoin’s path,
- But still granting some probability to bullish scenarios where BTC recovers, MSTR’s premium rebuilds, and Strategy retains a role as a high‑beta Bitcoin vehicle with meaningful upside.
As always, none of the analyst targets, models or algorithmic forecasts are guarantees. They’re scenarios built on assumptions about Bitcoin, regulation and capital markets that can change quickly. Anyone considering exposure to Strategy Inc or Bitcoin should carefully assess their risk tolerance, time horizon and diversification and, where appropriate, seek independent financial advice.
References
1. en.wikipedia.org, 2. finviz.com, 3. www.google.com, 4. finviz.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. finviz.com, 7. www.google.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.barrons.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. coinpedia.org, 15. finviz.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. parameter.io, 18. parameter.io, 19. parameter.io, 20. parameter.io, 21. parameter.io, 22. parameter.io, 23. www.investors.com, 24. www.investors.com, 25. www.investors.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.investors.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.barrons.com, 30. www.investors.com, 31. seekingalpha.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. parameter.io, 39. www.investors.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.barrons.com, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. parameter.io
