Published: 12 December 2025
Macquarie Group Limited (ASX: MQG; ADR: MQBKY) is back in the spotlight as a busy mix of catalysts converges: a fresh share-price move in December trading, an upcoming interim dividend, an ongoing on-market buyback, and a headline-grabbing takeover approach through Macquarie Asset Management for logistics heavyweight Qube.
As of 12 December 2025, Macquarie’s share price was quoted around A$201.49, versus a previous close of A$196.35, after trading in a day range of roughly A$196.70 to A$201.61. The 52‑week range shown is A$160.00 to A$242.90—a reminder that MQG can swing hard when markets reprice volatility, deal flow, or performance fees. [1]
Below is what’s moving Macquarie Group stock, what analysts are forecasting into 2026, and what investors are likely to watch next.
Why Macquarie Group stock is moving in December 2025
Macquarie’s business is diversified—part asset manager, part retail bank, part commodities trader, part investment bank—which means the stock often trades like a “bundle of macro bets.”
Right now, the most immediate drivers include:
- Capital returns: a A$2.80 interim dividend (35% franked) due mid‑December and a continuing buyback program. [2]
- Deal momentum: Macquarie Asset Management’s A$5.20 per share proposal for Qube (subject to due diligence and approvals) has become a high-profile test of Australia’s deal environment and regulation. [3]
- Earnings mix: the latest half‑year result highlighted strong performance fees in asset management and a rebound in investment-banking style income, offset by softer conditions in parts of markets/trading and higher expenses. [4]
Macquarie’s latest results: FY26 half-year profit, AUM, and segment performance
Macquarie’s most recent major reporting event was the half year ended 30 September 2025 (1H26).
Headline numbers
Macquarie reported 1H26 net profit of A$1,655 million, up 3% versus 1H25 and down 21% versus 2H25. Assets under management were A$959.1 billion at 30 September 2025. Macquarie also highlighted a strong capital position, including a Group capital surplus of A$7.6 billion, and disclosed a Bank Level 2 CET1 ratio of 12.4% (plus liquidity metrics such as LCR and NSFR). [5]
What the operating groups say about the cycle
Macquarie’s commentary (and the segment split) matters to investors because it helps answer the real question behind MQG’s valuation: Are we in a fee-and-deal upcycle, a volatility upcycle, or neither?
In 1H26, Macquarie reported the following net profit contributions (management measure) by operating group:
- Macquarie Asset Management (MAM): A$1,175m, up 43%, driven primarily by higher performance fees. [6]
- Banking and Financial Services (BFS): A$793m, up 22%, reflecting growth in home loans and deposits, partly offset by margin compression and higher technology expenses. [7]
- Commodities and Global Markets (CGM): A$1,113m, down 15%, with Macquarie pointing to higher operating expenses (including platform investment and transaction-related costs), while commodities income was described as broadly in line. [8]
- Macquarie Capital: A$711m, up 92%, reflecting higher M&A/brokerage fee income and higher net income from the private credit portfolio. [9]
In short: fees and advisory improved, banking volumes grew but margins stayed competitive, and markets/trading was more mixed, with higher costs weighing on CGM. [10]
How the market reacted
Reuters reported that Macquarie’s half-year profit increase still came in below a consensus estimate cited (Visible Alpha), and the shares fell on the day of the result—an illustration of how tightly investors are calibrating “beat vs. miss” for a stock priced on cyclical recovery narratives. [11]
Dividend and buyback: what MQG shareholders need to know now
The December 2025 dividend
Macquarie declared a 1H26 interim dividend of A$2.80 per share (35% franked). The ex-dividend date was 17 November 2025, the record date 18 November 2025, and the payment date is 17 December 2025. [12]
That payment date matters for near-term trading: MQG often sees increased attention from income-focused investors into December, especially when paired with buyback support.
Buyback support (and why investors care)
Macquarie has continued to use its buyback as a capital-management lever. In its reporting materials, Macquarie noted that as at 6 November 2025, it had acquired A$1,013 million of ordinary shares on-market at an average price of A$189.80 per share. [13]
Reuters also highlighted the extension of Macquarie’s buyback and noted the company had already repurchased around A$1 billion worth of shares at that point. [14]
For investors, the practical takeaway is that buybacks can help dampen downside during weaker sentiment—but only if capital remains surplus to the opportunities Macquarie wants to fund, including acquisitions, platform investment, and regulatory buffers.
The Qube takeover bid: why it matters for Macquarie Group stock
One of the most market-relevant Macquarie-linked stories late in 2025 is the proposed acquisition of Qube Holdings by Macquarie Asset Management (MAM).
Reuters reported that Qube received a cash offer of A$5.20 per share from MAM, implying an enterprise value of about A$11.6 billion (including debt), and that Qube granted MAM an exclusivity period for due diligence, with exclusivity ending 1 February 2026. [15]
What investors are watching
This deal is important to MQG holders even though it sits inside the asset-management arm, because it touches several sensitive investor themes:
- Regulatory risk and deal certainty
Any large infrastructure/logistics transaction can attract scrutiny, and the market tends to “discount” outcomes until approvals look firm. - Capital allocation discipline
Macquarie’s brand in markets is built on being opportunistic—but not reckless. If the market thinks pricing is aggressive or regulatory hurdles are underestimated, MQG sentiment can suffer. - Fee opportunity vs. balance-sheet risk
If the acquisition is executed through fund structures with co-investors, that can be a fee and platform win. If investors perceive more balance-sheet exposure than expected, it can weigh on valuation.
Reuters Breakingviews framed the Qube approach as part of a late-year lift in Australian buyouts after a subdued period, highlighting how large signed deals can reset confidence in the deal pipeline. [16]
Credit profile and stability: Fitch keeps Macquarie at “A” with a stable outlook
While equity investors focus on earnings, buybacks, and price targets, credit ratings still matter because Macquarie is ultimately a financial institution with meaningful funding needs—and a bank subsidiary.
In an update dated 1 December 2025, Fitch’s report shows Macquarie Group Limited with a Long‑Term IDR of “A” and a Stable Outlook (and short-term rating shown as F1). Fitch also discussed balance-sheet themes including managing “double leverage,” and it referenced Macquarie’s banking-business growth and liquidity management. [17]
Fitch’s “rating sensitivities” section also points to a key monitoring variable: the group’s common equity double leverage, which Fitch notes could pressure the rating if it moved above certain levels for a sustained period (even if Fitch does not expect that to occur). [18]
For MQG stock investors, the simple interpretation is: credit conditions look stable, which supports Macquarie’s ability to keep investing through the cycle—provided risk and capital metrics remain controlled.
Analyst forecasts for Macquarie Group stock: price targets and expectations into 2026
Analyst expectations for Macquarie typically cluster around three moving parts:
- Performance fees and asset realizations in Macquarie Asset Management
- Deal flow and private credit performance in Macquarie Capital
- Volatility and client activity in Commodities and Global Markets
- Margin competition and loan/deposit growth in the banking arm
Where analysts see MQG share price headed
Consensus-style targets vary by provider, but broadly point to moderate upside from current levels—assuming no major macro shock or deal disruption.
- Investing.com displays an average 12‑month price target around A$224.48, with a high estimate of A$255 and low estimate of A$200, and shows a “Buy”-leaning split among analysts listed there. [19]
- TradingView shows a price target of A$230.69, with a max estimate of A$264.98 and min estimate of A$200.00. [20]
- TipRanks shows an average target around A$221.18, with a high forecast of A$254.27 and low forecast of A$199.43, and characterises the consensus as closer to Hold in its tally. [21]
These aren’t guarantees (analysts are not oracles; they are humans with spreadsheets and coffee), but the consistency of the ~A$220–A$230 “middle” range suggests the street currently expects a steadier earnings environment rather than a dramatic boom or bust.
Earnings outlook: what’s implied
Reuters cited a consensus full‑year net profit forecast of about A$4.2 billion (Visible Alpha) around the half-year reporting period—useful context for how the market is anchoring expectations for the broader FY26 earnings path. [22]
Corporate developments investors may have missed: CFO transition and portfolio reshaping
Beyond the headline half-year numbers, Macquarie’s July 2025 AGM / 1Q26 update contains two points that still matter as December 2025 investors look forward:
- CFO change: Macquarie said CFO Alex Harvey would step down effective 31 December 2025, with Frank Kwok indicated as successor (subject to approvals). Leadership transitions can affect sentiment, especially for a firm where capital allocation and risk framing are central to the equity story. [23]
- Portfolio move (deal): Macquarie noted it had agreed to divest its North American and European Public Investments businesses to Nomura (announced earlier in 2025), with the transaction expected to close by the end of calendar 2025. That kind of divestment can influence capital, earnings mix, and how investors model longer-term returns. [24]
What to watch next for Macquarie stock (ASX: MQG)
As of 12.12.2025, the “next chapter” for MQG investors is likely to be written by a handful of catalysts:
- Dividend payment (17 Dec 2025) and any signals about how strongly Macquarie can keep returning capital while funding growth. [25]
- Qube due diligence and regulatory trajectory ahead of the 1 Feb 2026 exclusivity deadline—deal clarity can swing perception of Macquarie Asset Management’s momentum and discipline. [26]
- Market volatility conditions—particularly in commodities/energy and rates/FX—because CGM earnings are sensitive to client activity and volatility regimes. [27]
- Fee realization and performance fee repeatability in MAM. Performance fees can be powerful—and lumpy. The market will focus on whether the fee strength is repeatable or unusually concentrated. [28]
- Any updates tied to the CFO handover and broader governance/risk framing as Macquarie continues to invest in platform resilience and remediation where required. [29]
Bottom line: MQG is trading the intersection of capital returns, deals, and the volatility cycle
Macquarie Group stock often rewards investors who remember what it is—and what it isn’t.
It isn’t a plain-vanilla retail bank. It isn’t a pure-play asset manager. It isn’t a traditional investment bank. It’s a hybrid machine that tends to do well when markets are open, clients are active, assets revalue upward, and deal-making resumes—and it tends to get marked down when those conditions soften or when costs and regulation bite.
Right now, the December setup is clear: a higher share price into mid-December, an imminent dividend, an active buyback, and a major takeover negotiation in the background. Whether MQG can push meaningfully higher into 2026 will likely depend on the quality of earnings (repeatable vs. one-off), the certainty of deals, and the shape of volatility across global markets. [30]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.macquarie.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.macquarie.com, 5. www.macquarie.com, 6. www.macquarie.com, 7. www.macquarie.com, 8. www.macquarie.com, 9. www.macquarie.com, 10. www.macquarie.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.macquarie.com, 13. www.macquarie.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.macquarie.com, 18. www.macquarie.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.tradingview.com, 21. www.tipranks.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.macquarie.com, 24. www.macquarie.com, 25. www.macquarie.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.macquarie.com, 28. www.macquarie.com, 29. www.macquarie.com, 30. www.investing.com
