Alphabet (GOOG) Stock Today: Google Class C Shares Face AI Rival Pressure, New Antitrust Risks, and a Waymo Recall — What Investors Are Watching (Dec. 12, 2025)

Alphabet Inc.’s Class C stock (NASDAQ: GOOG) is under the microscope on December 12, 2025, as investors weigh a fast-moving mix of AI competition, regulatory headlines in the EU and U.S., and Waymo safety scrutiny—all against the backdrop of a market that’s turning more selective about the payoff timeline for Big Tech’s AI spending. ^[1]

GOOG closed at $313.70 on Dec. 11 after swinging between roughly $309.88 and $321.99, and it was indicated modestly higher in premarket trading early Dec. 12 (delayed quote) as traders digested fresh headlines. ^[2]

Key takeaways driving GOOG right now

AI competition is intensifying: OpenAI rolled out GPT‑5.2 and landed Disney as a strategic partner, adding fresh pressure to the “AI platform” narrative across the sector—including Google Search, Gemini, and Workspace. ^[3]
Regulatory risk is back on the front page: Reuters reports the EU is preparing to fine Google next year over alleged Digital Markets Act compliance shortfalls in Search, with potential penalties that can be significant under the DMA framework. ^[4]
Waymo is a near-term headline risk: Reuters says the U.S. regulator disclosed a Waymo recall of 3,067 vehicles tied to a software issue involving stopped school buses. ^[5]
The AI spending trade is being re-priced: After Oracle’s results revived “AI bubble” chatter, Reuters notes investors are increasingly scrutinizing capex and returns—while also distinguishing hyperscalers like Alphabet from more leveraged AI spenders. ^[6]

What GOOG actually is: Alphabet’s Class C stock, explained

Alphabet has multiple share classes. GOOG is the Class C line, which generally provides the same economic exposure as Class A (GOOGL) but does not carry voting rights. In practical terms, GOOG tends to trade closely with GOOGL, and day-to-day price moves usually reflect the same underlying drivers: Search advertising trends, YouTube monetization, Google Cloud growth, AI execution, and regulatory outcomes.

For investors, the key point is simple: GOOG is a direct way to own Alphabet’s financial performance, but not a way to influence corporate votes.

Why Alphabet stock is moving on Dec. 12, 2025

1) OpenAI’s GPT‑5.2 + Disney deal raises the temperature in the AI race

OpenAI’s launch of GPT‑5.2 is being framed as a step-change upgrade, particularly for professional workflows (coding and productivity tasks), and it arrives with a headline partnership: Disney’s $1 billion investment in OpenAI and licensing arrangement around IP for user-prompted video generation, according to Investors.com. ^[7]

For Alphabet investors, this matters less as a one-day product-cycle story and more as a signal: AI “assistants” are steadily expanding from chat into full productivity suites, creating credible competitive pressure on Google Workspace and on Search experiences as AI interfaces spread.

Separately, Reuters reported that Disney sent a cease-and-desist letter to Google, according to a CNBC report, adding another layer of legal/relationship noise around the ecosystem. ^[8]

Market implication: in the near term, AI competition headlines can move GOOG because the market increasingly prices Alphabet as both an advertising giant and an AI platform company—meaning sentiment swings faster when rivals show momentum.

2) Waymo recall: small business today, big headline impact

Alphabet’s “Other Bets” segment is not the earnings engine that Google Services and Cloud are—but Waymo headlines can still move the stock, because they touch safety, regulatory posture, and the long-run optionality case.

On Dec. 11, Reuters reported that NHTSA said Waymo recalled 3,067 vehicles over a software issue that could cause vehicles to drive past stopped school buses; the regulator also noted repairs were completed via an update by Nov. 17. ^[9]

Market implication: even when financial exposure is limited, safety scrutiny can create an overhang on the “future value” narrative that some investors attribute to Waymo.

3) AI spending jitters: investors are getting choosier, even with hyperscalers

Alphabet has benefited from the multi-year AI capex cycle—but the market’s tolerance for “spend now, monetize later” has become less automatic.

Reuters coverage around Oracle’s earnings stumble captures the current mood: investors are increasingly demanding clarity on returns, with more differentiation between companies that can self-fund capex and those leaning on debt; hyperscalers like Alphabet are generally viewed as better positioned on that front. ^[10]

Market implication: Alphabet’s scale and cash generation help, but multiple compression is possible if investors broadly re-rate AI capex risk across Big Tech.

The bullish core narrative: Alphabet is pushing a “full-stack AI” strategy

Alphabet’s longer-term story in late 2025 isn’t just “Search + YouTube.” It’s a bid to be a vertically integrated AI company—models, distribution, cloud, and increasingly, silicon.

Gemini 3 is in Search—and that’s the point

Reuters reported that Alphabet launched Gemini 3 and integrated it into Search from launch, emphasizing that the model was already underpinning revenue-generating products. ^[11]

Google’s own product messaging also underscores that strategy: Gemini 3 is positioned as “shipping at the scale of Google,” including Search experiences (AI Mode), the Gemini app, and developer platforms. ^[12]

Why investors care: Alphabet’s fastest path to AI monetization is still the one it already owns—distribution. Search and YouTube are global funnels; Gemini’s job is to lift engagement, defend the moat, and expand monetizable surfaces.

Google Cloud: growth engine + AI demand sponge

Alphabet’s most recent quarterly results (Q3 2025) highlighted how central Cloud has become:

Alphabet reported $102.35 billion in quarterly revenue and $15.16 billion from Google Cloud, according to Reuters, alongside raised capex guidance. ^[13]
In its Q3 earnings release, Alphabet reported $102.3 billion in revenue and $15.2 billion in Cloud revenue, with operating income and margins reflecting the scale of the business today.
Reuters also reported management commentary that Cloud’s backlog grew to $155 billion. ^[14]

The trade-off: Alphabet is investing heavily. Reuters reported Alphabet boosted projected 2025 capital expenditures to $91–$93 billion amid AI demand. ^[15]
That spending can weigh on near-term margins—but it also supports the argument that Alphabet is building durable infrastructure advantages.

TPUs: Alphabet’s “underappreciated” lever in the AI compute economy

One of the most consequential Alphabet themes in 2025 has been the shift from “Google uses TPUs internally” to “TPUs become a product and a wedge.”

Key developments reported this year include:

Anthropic expanding its use of Google Cloud’s TPU capacity: Reuters reported a deal involving more than one gigawatt of computing capacity coming online in 2026 to train future Claude models on Google TPUs. ^[16]
Meta talks: Reuters reported Meta is in discussions to spend billions on Google’s chips for data centers from 2027, with possible renting via Google Cloud earlier—part of Google’s broader push to get customers adopting TPUs. ^[17]
OpenAI renting Google TPUs: Reuters reported OpenAI turned to Google’s AI chips through Google Cloud, aiming to lower inference costs and diversify beyond Nvidia. ^[18]
Reuters analysis has also described Google financing and scaling TPU-ready data centers as part of an “Nvidia-like” playbook—highlighting both opportunity and risk if the infrastructure loop ever cools. ^[19]

Why this matters to GOOG holders: It expands Alphabet’s AI opportunity beyond “ads and subscriptions.” If TPUs gain external traction, Alphabet participates more directly in the AI infrastructure profit pool, not just the application layer.

The biggest overhang: antitrust and regulation (EU + U.S.)

EU: potential fines next year, multiple fronts

Reuters reported that Google is expected to be fined next year by EU antitrust regulators for allegedly not doing enough to comply with the DMA’s rules against self-preferencing in Search results; the report notes potential penalties can reach up to 10% of global annual turnover under the DMA framework. ^[20]

Reuters also reported a separate line of risk: Google could face fines early next year related to Google Play if it doesn’t make more concessions under EU rules. ^[21]

And beyond DMA compliance, the EU has opened another competition inquiry tied to AI: AP reported the European Commission launched a new antitrust investigation into Google’s use of online content for AI purposes—focused on whether Google disadvantaged competitors and whether publishers have adequate control/compensation mechanisms. ^[22]

Market implication: even if the dollar value of a fine is manageable for Alphabet, the structural risk is bigger—remedies can influence Search presentation, traffic flows, and monetization mechanics.

U.S.: remedies, appeals, and “default” distribution economics

Alphabet’s U.S. search antitrust saga remains central because it goes straight to the default distribution playbook (Apple, Android, browsers).

Reuters previously reported that in September 2025, a judge allowed Google to keep Chrome and Android while barring certain exclusive contracts and ordering limited data sharing—removing a “breakup” worst-case scenario while still imposing behavioral remedies. ^[23]

More recently, multiple outlets reported an additional remedy tightening default deals. Bloomberg reported that a federal judge ruled Google must renegotiate contracts that make its search engine or AI app the default on a one‑year basis. ^[24]
(Other coverage adds that this could force more frequent “rebids” for default placement across devices and browsers, increasing churn risk in distribution over time.) ^[25]

Market implication: defaults are not the whole moat—but they are an important accelerator of share. Any remedy that increases renegotiation frequency could raise customer acquisition costs and increase competitive bidding from rivals.

Alphabet’s shareholder return story: dividend + buybacks

Alphabet’s gradual shift toward a more explicit capital-return profile continues to matter for valuation.

In its Q3 2025 earnings materials, Alphabet announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 per share, payable Dec. 15, 2025, with an ex-dividend date in early December. ^[26]

The yield is still modest, but for some investors it reinforces a key point: Alphabet is trying to be valued not only as a growth story, but also as a durable mega-cap compounder with steady capital returns.

Analyst forecasts for GOOG: price targets are high, but dispersion is widening

Forecasts and price targets into 2026 remain broadly constructive—though the range is wide, reflecting both upside optionality and regulatory/AI uncertainty.

StockAnalysis lists a “Strong Buy” consensus and an average price target around $302.4, with targets ranging from $190 to $400. ^[27]
TradingView’s compilation shows a higher average target around $332.18, with a maximum estimate of $432 and minimum of $268. ^[28]
Barron’s reported that Pivotal Research set a Street-high $400 target and argued Alphabet is “winning everywhere,” pointing to Search resilience, Gemini progress, YouTube strength, and TPU positioning. ^[29]

It’s also notable that more bullish commentary is now explicitly framing Alphabet as a leading candidate for the next “mega-valuation” milestone. A Motley Fool commentary published on Nasdaq argued Alphabet could be the first AI stock to reach $5 trillion in 2026, hinging on full-stack AI leverage and Google Cloud momentum. ^[30]

How to read the targets: the market is no longer debating whether Alphabet is an AI player—it’s debating how much of that AI upside is already in the stock after a strong 2025 run that brought Alphabet close to a $4 trillion valuation at points, according to Reuters. ^[31]

What investors will watch next

Here are the catalysts most likely to move GOOG into early 2026:

AI monetization proof points in Search
Google’s leadership has pushed AI Overviews and AI Mode as engagement and monetization opportunities; investors will look for continued evidence that AI answers don’t erode ad economics—and that the experience expands query volume and commercial intent. ^[32]
Capex trajectory and Cloud profitability
Alphabet’s raised capex outlook (Reuters cited $91–$93B for 2025) keeps scrutiny high: markets want a path where Cloud grows fast and margins expand with scale. ^[33]
TPU commercialization and large customer wins
Anthropic’s expanded TPU usage and Meta talks are the kind of “platform validation” events that can change long-run models for Google Cloud’s economics. ^[34]
EU antitrust actions and remedies
Next year’s potential DMA-related fines and remedies could affect Search presentation and funnel dynamics, and Google Play is a separate enforcement track. ^[35]
Waymo execution and regulatory posture
Recalls and investigations won’t define Alphabet’s earnings today—but they influence sentiment around the company’s ability to convert long-term moonshots into scalable businesses. ^[36]

Bottom line for GOOG on Dec. 12, 2025

Alphabet’s Class C stock sits at the crossroads of three powerful forces:

Defensive scale (Search + YouTube cash generation),
Offensive AI ambition (Gemini in Search, Cloud growth, TPU deals),
Regulatory gravity (EU DMA and AI-content scrutiny, plus U.S. distribution remedies).

In the near term, GOOG’s tape can be driven by headline volatility—OpenAI product leaps, legal skirmishes, and Waymo safety updates. ^[37]
But the medium-term debate is clearer: can Alphabet keep Search resilient while scaling Cloud and AI infrastructure fast enough to justify today’s expectations—without regulation rewriting the rules of distribution and discovery? ^[38]