Published Friday, Dec. 12, 2025 at 3:30 p.m. EST
With U.S. stocks approaching the closing bell on Friday, Wall Street is shifting from year-end positioning to a fast-approaching wave of long-delayed, market-moving economic releases. Investors have spent weeks navigating a “data blackout” created by a lengthy federal government shutdown—and now the backlog is finally set to land, starting with late-day updates today and escalating into next week’s headline events: the November U.S. jobs report and the November Consumer Price Index (CPI). [1]
Below is what’s still on the U.S. economic calendar after the bell on Dec. 12, along with the freshest forecasts and analysis circulating today (12/12/2025) and why the coming releases may drive outsized moves across stocks, bonds, and the dollar.
Key takeaways for investors heading into the close
- 3:30 p.m. ET brings fresh CFTC positioning data (Commitments of Traders), with the agency still clearing a shutdown-related backlog—important for commodities, FX, and rates positioning into week’s end. [2]
- 4:15 p.m. ET delivers two closely watched Fed updates: the daily H.15 interest rate table and the weekly H.8 snapshot of commercial bank balance sheets—often used as a “plumbing check” for credit and liquidity. [3]
- Next week is the real volatility test: the rescheduled Employment Situation (Nov.) hits Tuesday, Dec. 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the rescheduled CPI (Nov.) on Thursday, Dec. 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET. [4]
- Consensus expects soft hiring: economists polled by Reuters see +35,000 payrolls in November, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned underlying job trends may be weaker than headline prints suggest. [5]
- The Fed just cut—but is divided and data-dependent: policymakers lowered rates to 3.50%–3.75% this week, while signaling caution; dissenters cited inflation risk and limited real-time data. [6]
After the bell today (Friday, Dec. 12): The late-day U.S. economic calendar
It’s 3:30 p.m. ET now—about 30 minutes before the New York Stock Exchange close. For macro traders, the late-day docket matters because it can reshape positioning for Monday, particularly in thinner holiday liquidity.
3:30 p.m. ET — CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission releases its Commitments of Traders (COT) data at 3:30 p.m. Eastern—a weekly snapshot of how key market participants are positioned across futures markets. [7]
Why it matters today:
The CFTC says publication was interrupted from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12 due to a lapse in federal appropriations, and it has been issuing reports in chronological order to catch up. The agency’s revised schedule shows a catch-up publication dated Dec. 12, 2025 (for the report week associated with Nov. 18, 2025 data). [8]
What to watch inside the release:
- Energy and metals positioning (often influences Monday open sentiment in crude, gold, and silver)
- USD and rates futures exposure (useful heading into next week’s jobs and CPI prints)
- Crowding signals in “risk-on” trades that can unwind quickly if data surprises
4:15 p.m. ET — Federal Reserve H.15 (Selected Interest Rates)
The Fed posts the H.15 Selected Interest Rates release daily Monday through Friday at 4:15 p.m. [9]
Why it matters:
This isn’t a “surprise data” drop, but it’s a standardized end-of-day reference that many desks use to reconcile moves in Treasury yields, money market rates, and key benchmarks. In a week where traders are recalibrating the path of rate cuts, clean end-of-day rate tables can matter more than usual.
4:15 p.m. ET — Federal Reserve H.8 (Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks)
The Fed’s H.8 release is published each Friday, generally at 4:15 p.m. [10]
Why it matters right now:
The H.8 is one of the quickest public reads on the banking system’s balance sheet trends—loan growth, deposit levels, and broad credit conditions. With investors trying to figure out whether the U.S. economy is slowing “cleanly” or tipping toward recession, late-cycle credit signals can become market movers—especially when headline macro data has been delayed.
The macro backdrop: A dovish cut, a divided Fed, and a market starving for data
Today’s “after the bell” releases land in a market still digesting the Federal Reserve’s latest decision.
On Dec. 10, the Fed cut the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%, and said it would assess incoming data carefully when considering further adjustments. [11]
But the decision exposed meaningful disagreement inside the central bank: some officials dissented because they believed inflation risk remains too high, while another dissented in favor of a larger cut. [12]
That split matters because next week’s delayed inflation and labor releases could become the tiebreakers—either validating the “soft landing with further cuts” narrative or reviving concerns that inflation is sticky while growth deteriorates.
Next week’s main event: The delayed-data deluge begins
The biggest economic calendar items aren’t after the bell today—they’re stacked into next week, with the potential to reprice markets quickly.
Tuesday, Dec. 16 (8:30 a.m. ET) — Employment Situation (November 2025)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) lists the rescheduled release date for the Employment Situation (Nov. 2025) as Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. ET. [13]
Why this jobs report is unusual:
- BLS canceled the October Employment Situation release during the shutdown and noted that establishment survey data for October will be released with the November data, while household survey data for the October reference period were not collected and will not be collected retroactively. [14]
- Reuters has also highlighted that the delayed November employment report will incorporate October nonfarm payrolls data, while the October unemployment rate won’t be available because the shutdown prevented collection of the household survey used to calculate it. [15]
Reuters forecast snapshot (as of today, 12/12):
Economists polled by Reuters expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by about 35,000 in November—a notably soft number by recent standards. [16]
Why traders care:
A weak payrolls number can boost rate-cut bets and support bonds—unless it’s weak enough to trigger recession fear, which can hit equities and widen credit spreads. Reuters also captured the market’s sensitivity here: if jobs prints turn negative, “you can’t avoid the recession discussion.” [17]
Thursday, Dec. 18 (8:30 a.m. ET) — Consumer Price Index (November 2025) + Real Earnings (November 2025)
BLS lists the rescheduled CPI (Nov. 2025) for Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Real Earnings (Nov. 2025) release is also scheduled for the same time. [18]
A major complication for inflation watchers:
BLS canceled the October CPI and says it will not publish “all items” or “all items less food and energy” estimates for October 2025, and that the November CPI release will not include one-month percent changes for November 2025 where October data are missing. [19]
In plain English: the inflation picture may arrive with missing “month-to-month” building blocks that traders typically use for quick interpretation.
Market expectations highlighted today:
CMC Markets’ weekly preview published on Dec. 12 notes that CPI is “expected” by that outlet to come in around 3% year-over-year, roughly matching recent readings mentioned in its analysis. [20]
Other rescheduled BLS releases worth noting next week
While markets will be laser-focused on jobs and CPI, the shutdown-related backlog continues:
- Wednesday, Dec. 17 (10:00 a.m. ET): Business Employment Dynamics (Q1 2025) [21]
- Wednesday, Dec. 17 (10:00 a.m. ET): Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment (Sep. 2025) [22]
- Friday, Dec. 19 (10:00 a.m. ET): County Employment and Wages (Q2 2025) [23]
These may not move markets like CPI, but they can influence the narrative—especially for regional labor stress and wage conditions.
Forecasts and analysis circulating today: What strategists are saying
1) “A lack of clarity”—and the market may not like what it sees
Reuters’ “Wall Street Week Ahead” analysis sums up the current mood: markets have been supported by strong corporate earnings and anticipated rate cuts, but “now it’s time” to refocus on the underlying economy after weeks of missing data. [24]
The same Reuters piece underscores a key structural issue: because of the shutdown and catch-up schedule, markets are effectively getting multiple months of labor and inflation data between the December and January Fed meetings, compressing the time investors have to digest information. [25]
2) Payrolls: A soft consensus—and a warning from Powell
Reuters reports the Reuters-polled expectation of +35,000 payrolls, while also relaying Powell’s warning that reported job gains may be overstated—suggesting underlying momentum could be weaker. [26]
This sets up a wide distribution of outcomes:
- A modest positive number could calm recession fears but still support the Fed’s “wait-and-see” stance.
- A negative number would likely inject recession risk into year-end trading conditions, potentially increasing volatility in thin liquidity. [27]
3) CPI: A high-stakes print, even with missing pieces
Even if October CPI is missing, the rescheduled November CPI is still likely to steer near-term rate expectations—especially given internal Fed disagreement about inflation risk. [28]
4) Fed policy: “Cut now, debate later” is not the vibe
Reuters reporting on Fed dissenters shows policymakers arguing both sides of the tradeoff: some see inflation as still “too hot,” while others are more worried about labor market weakness or believe larger cuts are needed. [29]
The upshot for the calendar: next week’s data may not just move markets—it may shape the Fed’s internal coalitionahead of early-2026 decisions.
A separate (but crucial) calendar driver: the Fed’s liquidity operations begin today
Beyond data releases, there’s another macro development intersecting with today’s calendar: the Fed’s balance-sheet “plumbing.”
The New York Fed says the FOMC directed the Desk to increase SOMA securities holdings via purchases in Treasury bills (or, if needed, short-dated Treasuries) to maintain an ample level of reserves. The NY Fed also states the first schedule totals about $40 billion in Treasury bill purchases, and that purchases will start on Dec. 12, 2025. [30]
This matters for markets because liquidity expectations can interact with the reaction to economic data:
- If data surprises sharply weaker, the combination of rate-cut pricing + liquidity support can amplify moves.
- If inflation surprises hotter, traders may debate whether liquidity operations blunt or intensify financial conditions.
What to watch into the weekend: Why “after the bell” data can matter more in December
Reuters notes two year-end mechanics that can magnify market reactions:
- Profit-taking after a strong year for risk assets
- Thinner holiday trading, which can exaggerate price swings [31]
That’s why today’s late-day releases—CFTC positioning, plus Fed H.8 and H.15—can influence not only Monday’s open but also how aggressively investors choose to carry risk into the jobs/CPI week.
Bottom line
As the market heads into the Dec. 12 close, the U.S. economic calendar “after the bell” is less about blockbuster headlines tonight and more about setting the table: positioning data at 3:30 p.m., key Fed releases at 4:15 p.m., and a weekend narrative that will quickly pivot to Tuesday’s rescheduled jobs report and Thursday’s rescheduled CPI.
After weeks of uncertainty caused by the shutdown-driven data gap, the next five trading days may deliver the clearest—and potentially most disruptive—read yet on whether the U.S. economy is slowing gently or slipping toward a harder landing.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.cftc.gov, 3. www.federalreserve.gov, 4. www.bls.gov, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.federalreserve.gov, 7. www.cftc.gov, 8. www.cftc.gov, 9. www.federalreserve.gov, 10. www.federalreserve.gov, 11. www.federalreserve.gov, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.bls.gov, 14. www.bls.gov, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.bls.gov, 19. www.bls.gov, 20. www.cmcmarkets.com, 21. www.bls.gov, 22. www.bls.gov, 23. www.bls.gov, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.bls.gov, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.newyorkfed.org, 31. www.reuters.com
