Coherent Corp Stock (COHR) Slides on Bain Capital Sale Signal as AI Trade Volatility Returns — News, Forecasts and Analyst Targets for Dec. 12, 2025

Coherent Corp. (NYSE: COHR) stock is under pressure on Friday, Dec. 12, 2025, as investors digest signs of another large shareholder sale tied to Bain Capital—while a renewed bout of “AI trade” volatility weighs on tech-linked names more broadly.

COHR stock price today: sharp drop after an early run-up

As of 18:11 UTC on Friday (midday U.S. trading), Coherent shares were around $180.78, down roughly 8.9% from the prior close. The stock opened near $195.00 and traded in a wide range, from about $176.74 to $198.60, with volume around 4.53 million shares at that time.

That kind of intraday swing is notable for a large-cap photonics name—and it sets the stage for what’s driving the move.

The main COHR catalyst: a Form 144 tied to Bain’s stake reduction

A key piece of “today’s” Coherent story is a Form 144 filing (notice of proposed sale of securities) connected to BCPE Watson (DE) BML, LP, a Bain Capital–affiliated holder.

In the SEC submission text for the Form 144 filed on Dec. 10, 2025, the filer indicates an intent to sell 5,000,000 shares with an indicated aggregate market value of $947,750,000, listing Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC as broker, and showing a proposed sale date of 12/12/2025 on the NYSE. ^[1]

The same SEC text also references two prior large transactions—7,500,000 shares dated 11/07/2025 and 7,500,000 shares dated 11/24/2025—each shown with a value of $1,075,275,000.00. ^[2]

Why that matters for COHR stock: even if long-term fundamentals don’t change overnight, the market often reacts to the mechanics of supply/demand. A large, price-sensitive seller can create a near-term “overhang,” especially after a strong run.

How the market framed it: block-trade chatter and discount risk

Reporting around the offering indicated Goldman was marketing 5 million Bain shares in a range that implied a potential discount to the prior close, reinforcing the near-term supply narrative. ^[3]

Bain’s evolving position in Coherent: conversions, filings, and alignment moves

Beyond the Form 144, investors have been tracking Bain’s shifting exposure as preferred shares convert into common.

A Schedule 13D/A summary of recent disclosures indicates BCPE Watson (DE) BML, LP reported beneficial ownership of 14,868,245 shares, described as 7.9% of the class, following preferred-to-common conversions (including a mandatory conversion election effective mid-December). ^[4]

Separately, Coherent disclosed via an 8-K that it entered into a Waiver Agreement with Bain Capital on Nov. 20, 2025, under which Bain waived rights to receive dividends on its Series B preferred stock going forward—an action the company described as strengthening alignment with common shareholders. ^[5]

Macro backdrop on Dec. 12, 2025: the “AI trade” pulls back

Coherent is often discussed as a pick-and-shovel supplier to AI infrastructure (especially optical and photonics content in data centers). On Dec. 12, the broader market tone for AI-linked hardware shifted risk-off.

A Reuters market report described U.S. equities slipping as Broadcom’s outlook reignited “AI bubble” fears, dragging tech shares and semiconductors. ^[6]
Another Reuters piece highlighted how Oracle’s stumble also hit AI sentiment, even as many investors remained constructive on the longer-term buildout. ^[7]
Investopedia likewise described AI-related hardware names selling off sharply on Friday. ^[8]

Why this matters for COHR: when the market de-risks AI exposure, mid-cap and growth-linked infrastructure suppliers can move more than mega-caps—especially if a company-specific supply event (like a large shareholder sale) hits at the same time.

Coherent fundamentals recap: what the company last reported

The latest major company update before today’s selloff was Coherent’s first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release (quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025).

Coherent reported Q1 revenue of $1.58 billion, along with GAAP gross margin of 36.6% and non-GAAP gross margin of 38.7%. The release also cited GAAP EPS of $1.19 and non-GAAP EPS of $1.16. Management explicitly pointed to demand tied to AI-related datacenters and communications, and the company noted $400 million of debt paydown plus refinancing actions aimed at reducing interest expense. ^[9]

That combination—AI-driven growth narrative plus balance-sheet repair—is a key reason COHR has attracted aggressive price-target hikes in recent weeks.

Recent Coherent product/technology news: 300mm silicon carbide push

On Dec. 3, 2025, Coherent announced progress on a next-generation 300mm silicon carbide (SiC) platform, framing it as a step toward addressing rising thermal efficiency demands in AI data center infrastructure. The company highlighted leveraging its 200mm platform experience, with a plan to ramp volumes, while noting broader applications spanning AR/VR waveguides and power electronics. ^[10]

For investors, this matters because it expands the “AI infrastructure” angle beyond optical connectivity into power/thermal management—though execution and customer adoption remain the key variables.

Analyst forecasts and price targets: where Wall Street sees COHR next

Analyst commentary and price targets have been moving quickly—so it’s worth separating specific, dated analyst notes from consensus trackers.

Notable analyst actions in early December 2025

JPMorgan raised its Coherent price target to $215 from $180 and kept an Overweight rating, citing stronger optical networking outlook themes (including “scale-across” and multi-rail infrastructure) that could extend robust growth rates. ^[11]
Raymond James raised its price target to $210 from $180 and maintained a Strong Buy, pointing to Coherent’s positioning in technologies supporting AI programs “inside and among data centers,” and arguing the market may not fully recognize the breadth of the company’s portfolio and IP. ^[12]
The Raymond James writeup also referenced other firms lifting targets after the Q1 print (e.g., Benchmark, Stifel, Needham), underscoring how upbeat the near-term sell-side tone has been around the AI datacenter/optical cycle. ^[13]

What “consensus” models show (and why they differ)

Consensus dashboards don’t always match—because they track different analyst sets and update schedules:

MarketBeat’s tracker shows an average price target around $154.42 and a “Moderate Buy” consensus (based on its tracked analyst ratings). ^[14]
StockAnalysis shows a consensus rating of “Strong Buy” with an average target near $144.54, with a wide stated range up to $220 on the high end. ^[15]

How to read that: the headline targets from bullish calls (e.g., $210–$215) exist, but the average can still land much lower if (1) some analysts remain cautious, (2) older targets haven’t caught up, or (3) different services are counting different firms.

What Coherent does (and why AI data centers keep coming up)

Coherent is a vertically integrated photonics company with segments spanning Networking, Materials, and Lasers, serving end markets including industrial, communications, electronics, and instrumentation. ^[16]

The AI relevance comes from the infrastructure buildout—data centers needing faster optical connectivity, more efficient power delivery, and better thermal solutions. That’s the narrative investors are trading, for better or worse, in COHR’s recent volatility.

Key risks and what to watch next for COHR stock

Here are the practical signposts investors are likely to focus on after Dec. 12’s move:

Follow-through on the large-shareholder sale: Form 144 is a notice, not a guarantee of execution—but it can influence trading behavior and short-term price discovery. ^[17]
Further Bain-related conversions and ownership updates: preferred-to-common conversions can change float dynamics and sentiment. ^[18]
AI capex mood swings: today’s selloff shows how quickly the market can rotate when mega-cap AI signals change. ^[19]
Proof in upcoming quarters: investors will look for continued data center/communications momentum, margin durability, and disciplined balance-sheet progress consistent with the Q1 narrative. ^[20]
Execution on SiC roadmap: the 300mm SiC platform is strategically interesting, but commercialization pace and customer pull will matter more than the announcement itself. ^[21]

Bottom line for Dec. 12, 2025

Coherent stock’s drop on Dec. 12, 2025 appears driven by a two-factor mix: (1) a fresh supply overhang narrative tied to a Bain affiliate’s planned sale disclosed via SEC documentation, and (2) a broader pullback in AI-linked trades sparked by shifting sentiment around major AI hardware and spending. ^[22]

At the same time, the sell-side backdrop into mid-December remains relatively constructive, with multiple firms recently lifting targets on the view that Coherent is positioned to benefit from the next leg of AI data center infrastructure—though consensus averages vary widely depending on the data source. ^[23]