NEW YORK — December 12, 2025 — Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR)—the company formerly known as MicroStrategy—ended Friday’s session under pressure and traded slightly lower after the closing bell, as investors weighed a fresh wave of index-related uncertainty and the company’s continued identity shift into a Bitcoin-heavy “digital asset treasury” model. [1]
Below is what happened after the bell on 12/12/2025, what drove the conversation on 12/12/2025, and what matters most before the next U.S. stock market session (note: Dec. 13, 2025 is a Saturday, so U.S. exchanges are closed; the next regular open is Monday, Dec. 15, 2025). [2]
Strategy stock after the bell (12/12/2025): the after-hours snapshot
Strategy shares closed Friday, Dec. 12, 2025, at $176.60, down $6.70 (-3.66%) on the day. Trading ranged from $176.22 to $185.21 with about 13.89 million shares changing hands, according to Investing.com historical pricing. [3]
In after-hours trading, MSTR was last indicated around $176.13, down about $0.32 (-0.18%) from the regular-session close. [4]
Why that matters: after-hours moves in MSTR can be less about “software fundamentals” and more about headline risk—especially anything tied to Bitcoin, index membership, or capital-market access (equity/preferred issuance used to fund BTC accumulation). [5]
What moved Strategy today: the market setup + Bitcoin sensitivity
Friday’s broader tape wasn’t friendly to risk assets. U.S. equities slid with a tech-led pullback tied to AI-sector anxiety and post-earnings fallout in large-cap chip names, according to Reuters’ market coverage. [6]
But Strategy’s story is increasingly its own category. Reuters notes the company’s shares have been highly sensitive to Bitcoin’s swings, and that sensitivity has helped fuel a major pullback from prior highs. [7]
Strategy itself has also warned investors—explicitly—that its earnings can be “extremely sensitive” to Bitcoin prices because it has adopted accounting that marks Bitcoin holdings at fair value, pushing gains and losses through net income. [8]
The biggest headline risk (12/12/2025): Nasdaq-100 reshuffle could hit MSTR
The dominant equity-market storyline around Strategy on Dec. 12, 2025 was simple:
Could Strategy be removed from the Nasdaq-100?
Reuters reported that analysts have flagged risks that Strategy may be removed from the Nasdaq-100 during the annual reshuffle, with Nasdaq’s announcement expected after the market close on Friday (Dec. 12) and any changes expected to become effective Dec. 22, 2025. [9]
This is not a small technicality.
- If MSTR is removed, passive funds that track the Nasdaq-100 could be forced sellers. Reuters cited an estimate of roughly $1.6 billion in passive outflows if Nasdaq removes Strategy. [10]
- Strategists quoted by Reuters were split: some argued Strategy’s inclusion last year was a “technical” mismatch for a company functioning like an investment vehicle, while others argued it’s too large (by market cap) to ignore relative to other Nasdaq-100 constituents. [11]
Why this matters into the next session: even if the index change is “known” after the Friday-night announcement, much of the mechanical repositioning tied to index strategies typically shows up around effective dates and rebalancing windows—creating the potential for volatility, gaps, and unusually directional flows. [12]
The second major overhang (12/12/2025): MSCI’s “digital asset treasury” proposal
While Nasdaq-100 headlines dominated the “tonight” narrative, another index decision is looming just over the horizon.
Investor’s Business Daily reported that MSCI is considering excluding firms whose primary assets are digital currencies—an approach that could capture Strategy and similar “digital asset treasury” companies—and that an MSCI decision is expected by January 15. [13]
IBD also cited the possibility of forced passive selling—up to $2.8 billion of Strategy stock—if index rules change in a way that removes MSTR from relevant MSCI products. [14]
Reuters separately noted MSCI is due to decide in January whether to exclude Strategy and similar companies. [15]
Bottom line: Strategy’s near-term price action isn’t only a “Bitcoin proxy trade.” It’s also becoming an index eligibility trade—and those outcomes can reprice the stock quickly because they directly affect the marginal buyer/seller (passive funds). [16]
Why liquidity became a talking point: Strategy’s $1.44B USD reserve
One reason Strategy has remained at the center of market debate—even during drawdowns—is that it has been actively reshaping its “treasury company” playbook.
The $1.44 billion USD reserve (official company statement)
In a Dec. 1, 2025 press release, Strategy announced it established a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve intended to support payment of dividends on preferred stock and interest on outstanding debt (collectively described as “Dividends”). The company said the USD reserve was funded using proceeds from sales of Class A shares through its at-the-market (ATM) program. [17]
Strategy also said it intends to maintain enough USD reserve to fund at least 12 months of these obligations and aims to strengthen it toward 24 months or more, while emphasizing it can adjust the reserve based on liquidity needs and market conditions. [18]
Notably, executives framed the move as part of Strategy’s evolution into a “Digital Credit” issuer and said the reserve currently covers 21 months of obligations. [19]
Why commentators liked the move
A Decrypt report published Dec. 12, 2025 highlighted that Tom Lee (BitMine chairman) praised Strategy’s cash reserve as a “smart” way to prepare for downturns—especially scenarios where Strategy could trade below the value of its net assets. [20]
What investors should take from this: If the market is questioning whether Strategy is a “software company” or a Bitcoin treasury vehicle, Strategy is effectively arguing it is building a balance-sheet structure designed to hold through volatility—without being forced into selling Bitcoin to meet obligations. [21]
Strategy’s FY2025 guidance update is basically a Bitcoin price range bet
In that same Dec. 1 press release, Strategy updated the assumptions behind its previously issued FY2025 guidance, shifting away from a single year-end Bitcoin price assumption and toward a range.
Strategy stated that, based on an assumed year-end 2025 Bitcoin price range of $85,000 to $110,000, it provided the following target ranges: [22]
- FY2025 Operating Income (Loss): approx $(7.0)B to $9.5B
- FY2025 Net Income (Loss): approx $(5.5)B to $6.3B
- FY2025 Diluted EPS (Loss): approx $(17.0) to $19.0 per share
Strategy also updated its FY2025 Bitcoin KPI targets (again, conditioned on that price range), including: [23]
- BTC Yield Target:22.0% to 26.0%
- BTC $ Gain Target:$8.4B to $12.8B
This matters because it underscores what the market already treats as true: MSTR has become a high-beta equity expression of Bitcoin price direction—plus financing conditions, plus index inclusion rules. [24]
Forecasts and analyst-style takes published on 12/12/2025
“Forecast” content around Strategy on Dec. 12 was less about a single new price target and more about earnings expectations, valuation framing, and sentiment gauges.
Zacks / Finviz: earnings expectations and a “Hold” signal
A Zacks piece syndicated via Finviz on Dec. 12, 2025 noted Strategy was among the most searched stocks and highlighted: [25]
- MSTR’s past-month performance vs. the broader market (Zacks cited a -12.1% past-month return for Strategy versus +0.9% for the Zacks S&P 500 composite) [26]
- Consensus expectations (e.g., Zacks cited an expected $46.02 EPS for the current quarter and $119.6M in quarterly revenue estimate) [27]
- A Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) characterization and a poor valuation-style grade [28]
Street price targets: wide dispersion, “Bitcoin proxy” reality
Aggregator-style analyst summaries show unusually wide ranges—consistent with a stock whose value can hinge on both Bitcoin and capital markets.
- Investing.com lists an average 12‑month price target around $501.92 (high $705, low $229) and an overall “Strong Buy” style consensus. [29]
- MarketBeat’s consensus page similarly shows an average target in the mid‑$400s with a high of $705. [30]
How to interpret this: these targets are not “normal software valuation” outputs. They frequently embed assumptions about Bitcoin levels, leverage, dilution risk, and whether the equity trades at a premium to underlying BTC holdings (mNAV). [31]
A quieter datapoint from 12/12/2025: institutional ownership updates
MarketBeat reported on Dec. 12, 2025 that the Treasurer of the State of North Carolina increased its stake in Strategy by 19.8% in Q2, ending the quarter holding 129,344 shares worth about $52.29 million at that time, based on the filing it referenced. [32]
This is backward-looking (Q2), but it’s still relevant for context: large institutions and public funds remain involved—even as volatility and index questions dominate the narrative. [33]
What to know before the next stock market open
First: Dec. 13, 2025 is not a U.S. trading day
Because Dec. 13, 2025 falls on a Saturday, U.S. stock markets are closed. The next regular U.S. session is Monday, Dec. 15, 2025. (Crypto markets, including Bitcoin, trade through the weekend.) [34]
The 5 things most likely to move MSTR into Monday’s open
- Nasdaq-100 reconstitution outcome (headline risk + flow risk)
Reuters reported Nasdaq’s decision was expected after Friday’s close, with changes effective Dec. 22—and estimated $1.6B of passive outflows if Strategy is removed. That type of mechanical selling/buying can overpower “normal” trading for days. [35] - Bitcoin’s weekend move (24/7 driver for a weekday stock)
Strategy’s own guidance and risk language makes clear that Bitcoin’s price can swing reported earnings dramatically due to fair-value accounting. If Bitcoin moves sharply Saturday/Sunday, MSTR can gap on Monday. [36] - MSCI index-rule headlines ahead of the January decision window
IBD described the MSCI proposal as a potentially major catalyst, with a decision expected by Jan. 15 and potential forced divestment of MSTR by passive funds. Even incremental reporting or commentary can move the stock because it affects the “passive bid.” [37] - Funding conditions and dilution optics
Strategy’s model relies on raising capital (common stock and preferred offerings) and deploying proceeds into Bitcoin. The company explicitly tied portions of its guidance ranges and KPI targets to the “successful completion of capital raises.” That means market risk-off events (higher yields, weaker equity tape) can become MSTR-specific headwinds. [38] - Key technical levels traders will watch (simple, but influential)
From Investing.com data, MSTR’s 52-week range is $155.61 to $457.22, placing the stock far below its prior highs and leaving the market focused on whether recent lows hold if Bitcoin weakens again. Friday’s session low was around $176.22. [39]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.strategy.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.investors.com, 14. www.investors.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.strategy.com, 18. www.strategy.com, 19. www.strategy.com, 20. decrypt.co, 21. www.strategy.com, 22. www.strategy.com, 23. www.strategy.com, 24. www.strategy.com, 25. finviz.com, 26. finviz.com, 27. finviz.com, 28. finviz.com, 29. www.investing.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. decrypt.co, 32. www.marketbeat.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com, 34. www.strategy.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.strategy.com, 37. www.investors.com, 38. www.strategy.com, 39. www.investing.com
