PepsiCo (PEP) closed at $150.65 on Dec. 12, 2025 and slipped to about $150.28 after hours. Here’s the key news, forecasts, and analyst takes shaping the setup into the next session.
PepsiCo, Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP) finished Friday, December 12, 2025 on a stronger note than the broader market — and then gave back a small piece of those gains in after-hours trading.
One calendar reality check upfront: December 13, 2025 is a Saturday, when U.S. stock markets are closed. So “before the market open on 13.12.2025” effectively means investors are positioning through the weekend for the next regular session on Monday, December 15, 2025.
Below is a complete, publication-ready roundup of what mattered after the bell on Dec. 12 — and the key signals investors are watching heading into the next open.
PepsiCo stock after the bell: the Dec. 12 close and after-hours move
PepsiCo shares closed at $150.65, up 1.08% in Friday’s regular session, even as major indices ended lower. [1]
After the closing bell, the stock edged down modestly, with after-hours quotes around $150.28 (down about 0.25%), with reported after-hours volume around 1.41 million shares. [2]
Why this matters: a small after-hours dip after a positive day usually signals “no fresh shock” — the market is mostly digesting known information, and traders are waiting for the next catalyst rather than aggressively repricing the stock overnight.
What stood out on Dec. 12: PEP rose, but still lagged key peers
Friday’s session was a classic “relative strength” day for PepsiCo: PEP gained, but some beverage-and-snack peers did even better. Market data coverage noted Coca-Cola rising more strongly on the day, and PepsiCo still sitting below its 52-week high. [3]
PEP ended the session about 5.93% below its 52-week high of $160.15 (set earlier in 2025), a useful reference point because that zone often acts like a “memory level” where sellers previously showed up. [4]
The real story investors are pricing: PepsiCo’s Elliott-backed reset and the 2026 plan
The biggest fundamental driver hanging over PepsiCo this week (and still very much in the tape on Dec. 12) is the company’s strategic reset following engagement with activist investor Elliott Investment Management.
What’s been confirmed by PepsiCo and major outlets
PepsiCo has publicly laid out a package of initiatives aimed at improving growth and margins starting in 2026, describing:
- Sharper “everyday value” pricing and targeted affordable tiers
- Higher innovation tempo, including product changes emphasizing simpler ingredients and “functional” benefits
- Aggressive productivity and cost actions
- A plan to reduce nearly 20% of U.S. SKUs by early next year (i.e., by early 2026)
- A longer-run North America supply chain and go-to-market optimization review, with a comprehensive update planned for late 2026 [5]
Reuters also reported the company’s supply chain review and cost-reduction push in the context of discussions with Elliott. [6]
Meanwhile, the Associated Press described PepsiCo’s plan to cut prices and eliminate products under a deal with the activist investor, and noted Elliott’s stake disclosure (reported as a $4 billion stake acquired in September). [7]
Interpretation: the market is treating this as a “prove-it” operational turnaround inside a mature consumer-staples giant — less about a flashy new product, more about whether PepsiCo can execute a high-discipline playbook (pricing architecture, SKU simplification, productivity, and reinvestment) without damaging brand strength.
PepsiCo’s preliminary 2026 financial outlook: the key numbers
PepsiCo’s own preliminary 2026 outlook is now one of the most important anchors for the stock — because it defines what “success” looks like in measurable terms.
From PepsiCo’s December 8 update:
- Organic revenue growth:2% to 4% in fiscal 2026 (with the company expecting the high end of the range in the second half) [8]
- Reported net revenue growth implied:4% to 6% in 2026, after factoring in acquisitions/divestitures and FX impacts [9]
- Core EPS growth: about 5% to 7% in 2026 (or 7% to 9% excluding the impact of global minimum tax regulations, per the company) [10]
- Core effective tax rate: around 22% in 2026, tied to evolving global minimum tax rules [11]
- Core operating margin expansion: at least 100 basis points in aggregate over the next three fiscal years [12]
- Free cash flow conversion: at least 80% in 2026 (including a nearly $1B final tax payment related to the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act), and at least 90% in 2027 [13]
- Capital allocation: capex expected below 5% of net revenue in 2026; continued dividends (the company notes 53 consecutive years of increases, subject to board approval), and potential increased total cash returns in 2026 and 2027 [14]
Why these numbers matter before the next open: Wall Street will judge PepsiCo’s 2026 story by whether the company can deliver that revenue acceleration and margin lift while also funding reinvestment (marketing, value, innovation). That’s a delicate balancing act — and it’s why the stock can swing on even small evidence that volumes are stabilizing or pricing is working.
What analysts and forecasters were saying around Dec. 12
Even without a single blockbuster headline on Dec. 12 itself, there was a steady drumbeat of analyst framing this week — and that framing helps explain why PEP could rise on a down market day.
1) Street price targets cluster in the mid-$150s to ~$160 (with a wide range)
A Nasdaq/Fintel item tied to Barclays coverage pointed to an average one-year price target around $160.36 (as of Dec. 5) with a wide forecast range. [15]
Other consensus trackers often land in a similar neighborhood, though the exact number varies by source and timestamp (different platforms refresh at different moments). For example, MarketBeat listed an average target around the high $150s. [16]
Takeaway: the market’s “default expectation” remains modest upside from $150-ish levels — but not a universal slam-dunk. PepsiCo is priced like a high-quality staple, so upgrades/downgrades often hinge on whether the turnaround can improve volumes and margins enough to justify a higher multiple.
2) JPMorgan turns more constructive (upgrade) — but notes skepticism remains
A widely-circulated analyst note reported JPMorgan upgrading PepsiCo to Overweight and arguing the renewed focus on innovation/marketing/productivity improves the setup into 2026 — while acknowledging investors still have doubts about the pace and shape of the rebound. [17]
3) Jefferies nudges its target higher, but keeps a “Hold” stance
A separate write-up highlighted Jefferies lifting its price target slightly (to $164) while maintaining a Hold rating, emphasizing the difficulty of pulling off both a revenue rebound and cost reductions simultaneously. [18]
Overall message from analysts: optimism is rising, but it’s conditional optimism — the kind that disappears fast if execution looks messy.
The Dec. 12 “numbers watch”: near-term earnings expectations and valuation context
Coverage tied to Zacks (published late Dec. 12) framed the day’s move and summarized consensus expectations for the next earnings report:
- Expected next-quarter EPS: about $2.24
- Expected next-quarter revenue: about $28.84 billion
- Full-year consensus (as cited there): EPS around $8.11 and revenue around $93.54 billion [19]
Whether you use Zacks, Bloomberg consensus, FactSet, or another provider, the underlying point is the same: PEP’s next earnings cycle will be used as an early referendum on whether the 2026 plan is already improving trends. If PepsiCo starts showing better volume, better mix, or early margin traction, the market will likely “pull forward” confidence. If not, the stock can drift.
What to know before the next market open (Monday, Dec. 15): the weekend checklist
Because markets are closed Saturday (Dec. 13) and Sunday (Dec. 14), investors have a full weekend where narratives can compound. Here are the most practical “watch items” that could matter when the tape reopens:
1) Any new details on price architecture and SKU cuts
PepsiCo has explicitly tied 2026 improvement to affordability actions and SKU rationalization. [20]
What the market wants next is specificity: which categories, which channels, and how fast. Even small incremental disclosures (channel checks, retailer commentary, management interviews) can move sentiment.
2) Margin credibility: can PepsiCo expand margins while funding reinvestment?
PepsiCo is targeting substantial productivity and at least 100 bps of core operating margin expansion over the next three years. [21]
That’s bullish if it doesn’t come at the expense of brand health. Investors will watch for signs of:
- Promotional intensity changes
- Shifts in pack size/price points
- Input cost pressures vs. pricing power
3) Supply chain and go-to-market review: big lever, slow clock
The supply chain/go-to-market optimization update isn’t expected until late 2026, which tells you this is not a “quick flip.” [22]
Between now and then, rumors and leaks can cause churn: investors will look for hints about whether PepsiCo tweaks bottling strategy, distribution, automation, or regional integration.
4) Analyst revisions and “tone shifts”
After a strategy reset, what often moves a mega-cap staple isn’t one headline — it’s a series of subtle tone changes across analyst notes. This week already included both bullish turns (upgrade) and cautious “wait-and-see” takes. [23]
If more firms adjust targets or ratings heading into Monday, that can influence pre-market order flow.
5) Options and positioning as a sentiment tell (secondary, but real)
Options activity isn’t the “why” of a turnaround, but it can be the “how” of short-term moves. If put/call ratios, open interest, or unusual volume spikes into the next session, it may signal hedging (fear) or speculative upside positioning. [24]
Key dates to have on your radar
PepsiCo itself flagged these upcoming events for investors:
- Q4 and full-year 2025 results:Tuesday, February 3, 2026 (materials posted early morning; live Q&A later that morning) [25]
- CAGNY conference presentation:Wednesday, February 18, 2026 [26]
Why they matter now: if PEP trades sideways into year-end, these events become the next “volatility windows” where the market demands proof.
Bottom line: the PEP setup after hours on Dec. 12
- Price action: PepsiCo closed higher at $150.65, then dipped slightly after hours to about $150.28 — a muted reaction consistent with “no new surprise.” [27]
- Narrative driver: Investors are still processing the Elliott-linked operational reset and PepsiCo’s 2026 targets — especially the mix of affordability moves, SKU cuts, and productivity goals. [28]
- Weekend reality: With Saturday, Dec. 13 bringing no market session, attention shifts to what could surface before Monday’s open (Dec. 15): incremental disclosures, analyst tone shifts, and any new evidence on pricing/volume trends.
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.pepsico.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. apnews.com, 8. www.pepsico.com, 9. www.pepsico.com, 10. www.pepsico.com, 11. www.pepsico.com, 12. www.pepsico.com, 13. www.pepsico.com, 14. www.pepsico.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. finviz.com, 20. www.pepsico.com, 21. www.pepsico.com, 22. www.pepsico.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.barchart.com, 25. www.pepsico.com, 26. www.pepsico.com, 27. www.marketwatch.com, 28. www.pepsico.com
