Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) heads into the new week with investors juggling two very different forces: near-term execution (solid sales momentum and a fast-growing online channel) versus a longer‑dated but potentially meaningful regulatory overhang (a proposed “price gouging” ban aimed squarely at major supermarkets).
As of the latest available ASX close (Friday, 12 December 2025), Coles shares were A$21.79, down 0.2% on the day, after trading between A$21.82 and A$22.10. [1]
Coles share price this week: where COL stands right now
With Australian markets closed over the weekend, Friday’s close is the most recent official reference point. This week, Coles stock was broadly steady: MarketScreener shows a -0.27% move over the past five days, while the stock remains up about 15% year‑to‑date. [2]
That “treading water” price action makes sense: the tape is getting tugged by headline risk (government action on supermarket pricing) at the same time as fundamentals (sales, availability, online penetration) keep looking respectable.
The biggest Coles news in the last few days
1) Australia moves to ban “supermarket price gouging” from July 2026
The dominant headline risk for Coles (and Woolworths) arrived over the weekend: the federal government said it will ban supermarket price gouging from 1 July 2026, making it illegal for “very large” grocery chains to charge prices deemed “excessive” relative to cost of supply plus a “reasonable margin.” [3]
Penalties flagged are substantial, with reports describing maximum penalties per breach of A$10 million, or three times the benefit obtained, or 10% of annual turnover if the benefit can’t be determined. [4]
Coles pushed back, arguing multiple inquiries found no evidence of price gouging, and warning additional regulation could put upward pressure on prices. Coles also highlighted the business operates on thin net margins—about A$2.43 profit per A$100 spent, per reporting of its comments. [5]
Why this matters for COL stock:
- The start date (July 2026) is not tomorrow morning, but markets often price directional policy risk early.
- The critical unknown is the enforcement definition: what counts as “excessive,” and how a “reasonable margin” is determined across thousands of SKUs, promotions, and supplier dynamics.
- Even if actual penalties are rare, compliance burden and legal uncertainty can still weigh on sentiment and valuation multiples.
2) Uber Eats expands Coles partnership—exclusive on-demand delivery partner from 26 Dec 2025
Coles also delivered a more upbeat catalyst: Uber Eats announced an expanded partnership that increases Coles’ on-demand range on the platform to up to 17,000 products (an increase of more than 50% versus before), with delivery “in under an hour” and regular promos plus member perks. [6]
The headline strategic kicker: Uber Eats will become Coles’ exclusive on‑demand delivery partner from Friday 26 December 2025. [7]
The announcement also points to “in-store retail prices” for hundreds of items and notes the partnership extends beyond Uber Eats’ marketplace into on-demand delivery for Coles’ own e-commerce channels and retail media. [8]
Why this matters for COL stock:
- It supports the narrative that Coles is leaning hard into omnichannel convenience (not just weekly shops, but “I forgot lemons” missions).
- It’s another lever to defend share in a competitive market—particularly in December, when convenience demand spikes.
- The medium-term question is unit economics: on-demand is great for brand presence, but investors will watch whether it’s margin-accretive once you factor picking, substitutions, and delivery fees/promotions.
3) Broker note: Jefferies flags efficiency questions, but sees vertical integration benefits
A Reuters/TradingView item summarising Jefferies’ view said the broker questioned whether Coles’ in‑house food production can match third‑party cost efficiency (and noted under-utilised automated dairy operations), while still arguing the upside from vertical integration looks “tangible.” Jefferies kept a Hold rating with a A$21 price target. [9]
The same item cited LSEG data indicating 10 of 15 analysts rate the stock “buy” or better, and a mean price target of A$24.06 (per that dataset). [10]
Why this matters for COL stock:
- It frames the core debate: Coles has been investing heavily in supply chain and production capability—great for resilience and execution, but investors still want evidence it’s delivering “arm’s-length” returns.
- A$21 vs Friday’s close of A$21.79 implies modest downside on that single-broker view (about -3.6%), which helps explain why COL can trade sideways even as fundamentals hold up.
4) Low-drama ASX housekeeping: employee incentive securities and director interest notices
In terms of ASX filings, Coles lodged routine items this week, including an Appendix 3G covering 680,774 performance rights issued/transferred under an employee incentive scheme (unquoted). [11]
This isn’t usually price-sensitive, but it’s part of the normal governance plumbing investors track (incentives, dilution, alignment).
The operating backdrop: what Coles has been delivering
To understand why the market takes Coles seriously as a “steady compounder” even when politics gets spicy, it helps to look at the most recent company-reported run rate.
FY25 results: profit and dividends (context investors still anchor to)
In its FY25 full-year results release (52 weeks to 29 June 2025), Coles reported:
- Group sales revenue: A$44,352m
- Underlying NPAT (excluding significant items): A$1,181m
- Final dividend: 32 cents per share (fully franked) [12]
Those numbers still matter in December 2025 because they underpin dividend expectations, valuation comfort, and the “defensive” identity many investors assign to grocery retailers.
FY26 Q1: sales momentum and a strong online mix
In its FY26 first-quarter sales results (13 weeks to 28 September 2025), Coles reported:
- Total group sales revenue: A$10,963m, up 3.9%
- Supermarkets sales: A$9,965m, up 4.8%
- Liquor sales: A$842m, down 1.1% [13]
Digital performance stood out:
- Supermarkets eCommerce sales growth: 27.9%
- Supermarkets eCommerce penetration: 13.3% [14]
Coles also described a competitive market and talked about expanding everyday low price ranges in some categories—exactly the kind of language investors parse for early signs of margin pressure or a price war. [15]
A geeky footnote with real operational implications: the Q1 update also said Coles partnered with OpenAI to commence rollout of ChatGPT Enterprise to team members in its Store Support Centres—an example of retailers trying to squeeze productivity from workflow automation, not just forklifts and conveyor belts. [16]
Coles stock forecast: what analysts are pricing in
Consensus expectations (and the dispersion around them) matter a lot for “big, boring” stocks like Coles—because when a business is mature, valuation often swings on small changes to perceived risk and “fair” multiples.
MarketScreener’s consensus snapshot shows:
- Mean consensus: Outperform
- Number of analysts: 15
- Last close price: A$21.79
- Average target price: A$23.56
- High target: A$26.60
- Low target: A$16.50 [17]
That average target implies about ~8% upside from the last close (23.56 vs 21.79), which is meaningful—but not the kind of gap that screams “mispriced.” It’s more like: “decently liked, not wildly cheap.”
Meanwhile, Jefferies’ A$21 target (Hold) sits below the market, highlighting that the street’s biggest disagreements are likely about:
- sustainable margins under tighter scrutiny,
- the true return on supply chain and vertical integration investments,
- how much “digital convenience” translates into profitable growth (vs just shifting customer behaviour).
Week ahead: what to watch for Coles (15–19 Dec 2025)
Coles doesn’t typically drop surprise updates in mid‑December, so the “week ahead” setup is less about scheduled earnings and more about narrative drift—what the market decides is important.
Regulatory clarity (or lack of it)
Expect follow-on debate about how the proposed “price gouging” ban will work in practice, including:
- scope (“very large” retailers: who qualifies and who doesn’t),
- methodology (how “reasonable margin” is judged),
- enforcement intensity (test cases, guidance, timelines).
Even though the start date is July 2026, the market hates uncertainty now. The more ambiguous the rulebook, the more investors may demand a risk discount.
Competitive temperature check into Christmas
Coles’ own Q1 commentary flagged a “dynamic competitive market” and ongoing tailoring of pricing architecture. [18]
Next week, watch for signs of:
- more aggressive promotions,
- loyalty/points escalation,
- online discounting intensity (especially with last‑minute delivery demand).
On-demand delivery narrative
Uber Eats’ partnership expansion is already public, but the market may start debating second-order questions:
- Will competitors respond with their own exclusivity moves?
- Does this accelerate customer frequency (good) or encourage promo dependence (less good)?
- Is Coles building a retail media advantage by meeting customers inside multiple digital “walled gardens”?
The quiet but real catalyst: execution
Coles has been telling investors its transformation projects are improving availability and customer experience; if investors keep seeing clean operations (fewer out-of-stocks, better fulfillment, smoother promotions), COL tends to get treated like a “quality defensive” again.
Bottom line
Coles stock enters the week in a classic supermarket squeeze: it’s executing well on omnichannel and convenience, but it’s also the obvious political target when grocery prices become a national obsession.
In the near term, COL may trade less on “what happened last quarter” and more on “what rules might exist in 18 months.” In the longer term, the question is whether Coles can keep converting supply chain investment and digital growth into durable returns—without getting margin-capped by policy, competition, or both.
References
1. www.colesgroup.com.au, 2. www.marketscreener.com, 3. www.straitstimes.com, 4. www.straitstimes.com, 5. www.straitstimes.com, 6. www.uber.com, 7. www.uber.com, 8. www.uber.com, 9. www.tradingview.com, 10. www.tradingview.com, 11. www.colesgroup.com.au, 12. announcements.asx.com.au, 13. www.colesgroup.com.au, 14. www.colesgroup.com.au, 15. www.colesgroup.com.au, 16. www.colesgroup.com.au, 17. www.marketscreener.com, 18. www.colesgroup.com.au
