London, December 15, 2025 (2:00 PM GMT) — UK shares are firmly higher in Monday afternoon trading, with the FTSE 100 leading European benchmarks as investors lean into a growing consensus that the Bank of England is set to cut interest rates later this week. The move has boosted rate-sensitive pockets of the market and helped extend gains in banks and miners, while a China trade headline has revived interest in luxury-linked names.
UK stock market at 2:00 PM GMT: where the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 stand
As of about 1:54 PM UTC (just before 2:00 PM GMT), the FTSE 100 was trading at 9,744.02, up roughly 95 points (+0.98%) from the previous close of 9,649.03. [1]
Other major UK benchmarks were also higher:
- FTSE 250: 22,043.19 (up 0.76%) [2]
- FTSE All-Share: 5,249.36 (up 0.95%) [3]
- FTSE 350: 5,307.09 (up 0.96%) [4]
The FTSE 100 traded in a tight intraday band, with a day range of 9,649.00–9,747.90, leaving the index less than 2% below its 52‑week high of 9,930.09. [5]
Across Europe, risk sentiment is broadly constructive, with key continental indices also in positive territory (including the STOXX Europe 600, DAX and CAC 40). [6]
What’s driving UK shares today: Bank of England rate cut expectations dominate
The clearest catalyst for the afternoon rally is the market’s focus on Thursday’s Bank of England decision (December 18).
Reuters reports that markets have almost fully priced a BoE cut this week, with a Reuters poll pointing to a narrow 5–4 vote to lower Bank Rate to 3.75% from 4.0%. [7]
A separate Reuters analysis adds colour on why the vote looks “knife-edge”: Governor Andrew Bailey is widely viewed as pivotal, and most analysts surveyed expect him to tip the balance toward a cut unless incoming UK data surprises sharply. [8]
Sterling traders are telling a similar story. Reuters notes markets are almost fully pricing a cut on Thursday, and investors are watching UK data closely for what it means not only for this week’s decision, but also the 2026 path for policy. [9]
Why the rate-cut narrative matters for the FTSE 100
Even though the FTSE 100 is heavily international, rate expectations can still move the index through three channels:
- Domestic cyclicals and midcaps: lower expected borrowing costs can improve sentiment toward UK-focused earnings and credit conditions.
- Bank stocks: cuts can be a headwind to net interest margins, but markets can still bid banks higher if the cut is seen as supportive of growth, asset quality, and deal activity.
- Currency effects: a stronger pound can dilute overseas earnings translations for multinational FTSE constituents, while a weaker pound can do the opposite.
On Monday, the “growth support” interpretation is winning out in equities — even as investors keep one eye on sterling.
Inflation and growth backdrop: why traders think the BoE has room to move
Today’s rally is being underpinned by a UK macro picture that is cooling, not heating.
- Reuters highlights that UK inflation eased to 3.6% in October, with further declines expected — one reason the case for a cut has strengthened. [10]
- Reuters also notes October GDP shrank 0.1%, reinforcing the view that the economy has lost momentum. [11]
From here, the calendar is the market’s next test:
- Tuesday: UK wage growth figures, plus an early business read from S&P Global’s PMI survey [12]
- Wednesday: UK CPI inflation for November (expected by Reuters’ polling to ease further) [13]
- Thursday: BoE rate decision [14]
Oxford Economics’ Andrew Goodwin warned via Reuters that Thursday’s decision may be a closer call than the high probability implied by market pricing — a reminder that the rate-cut narrative is powerful, but not risk-free. [15]
Today’s winners: banks, miners and luxury stocks push the FTSE higher
A key feature of the day is how broad the support has been across sectors — with banks, miners, and luxury-linked stocks all contributing.
Reuters reported earlier in the session:
- Banks rose 1.3%, with Standard Chartered up 2.1% and Barclays up 1.8%. [16]
- Industrial metals and mining stocks gained 1.25%, with Antofagasta up 2.8% and Glencore up 1.3%. [17]
- Precious metal miners climbed as gold held near a multi-week high and silver extended gains, helped by a softer US dollar. [18]
Meanwhile, personal goods — a sector heavy with luxury names — led the market after China announced plans to expand exports and imports next year as part of what it called “sustainable” trade efforts. Burberry and Watches of Switzerland both advanced on the headline. [19]
Stocks in focus: the biggest UK company headlines moving shares today
Beyond macro and sector themes, several single-stock stories have shaped the tape on December 15.
TT Electronics slumps as DBAY drops takeover plans
Small- and mid-cap action was jolted by news around TT Electronics. Reuters reported that top shareholder DBAY Advisors said it does not intend to make an offer for the company, stepping away from a potential bidding war with Swiss firm Cicor. Shares fell about 21% in early trading. [20]
Hikma slides after CEO exits
In the FTSE 100, Hikma Pharmaceuticals fell after the company said CEO Riad Mishlawi is stepping down, with Executive Chairman and former CEO Said Darwazah taking over responsibilities. [21]
Shell in the spotlight after FRC opens audit probe into EY
Shell drew attention after the UK’s Financial Reporting Council said it opened an investigation into EY’s audit of Shell’s 2024 financial statements, focused on potential breaches of audit partner rotation rules. [22]
Associated British Foods dips after broker downgrade
Reuters also flagged weakness in Associated British Foods (Primark owner) after Jefferies downgraded the stock to “underperform” and cut its price target. [23]
Housing and consumer angles: FCA mortgage reforms and 2026 house price forecasts
While not direct components of the FTSE 100 story every day, the UK housing market remains a key “confidence barometer” for domestic growth expectations — which, in turn, influence interest-rate assumptions.
- The FCA published plans to build a “mortgage market of the future,” focusing on first-time buyers and underserved consumers, later-life lending, innovation (including data/technology and AI in advice), and protections for vulnerable consumers. The FCA said it will consult from early 2026 and aims to have initial rule changes later in 2026. [24]
- The Guardian reports Nationwide expects UK house prices could rise 2%–4% in 2026, helped by improving affordability and falling interest rates. [25]
This matters for markets because it feeds into the same question investors are trading today: how quickly can borrowing costs come down without reigniting inflation?
Forecasts and analyst outlook for the rest of the week
With the FTSE 100 higher at 2pm GMT, the next leg will likely hinge less on “what happened today” and more on what the data and central banks say next.
BoE: cut expected, but guidance could shift
Reuters reports investors and most analysts polled expect only one rate cut in 2026, suggesting the market sees the BoE as cautious even if it moves this week. [26]
BNP Paribas’ Dani Stoilova told clients (via Reuters) the BoE may also tweak its communication — potentially removing language pointing to a “gradual downward path” for rates to preserve flexibility. [27]
UBS: “gradual and cautious” easing in 2026
UBS’ view, reported by Investing.com, aligns with the idea of a cut this week but not an aggressive cycle: UBS expects a 25bp cut to 3.75% and anticipates a “gradual and cautious” approach in 2026, with only a couple more cuts at a quarterly pace. [28]
Global risk backdrop: US data and central banks
London is also trading against a global macro backdrop that could quickly reshape risk appetite. Reuters notes US stock index futures were firmer at the start of a “data-packed week,” with investors bracing for key releases that could influence rate expectations, alongside an already crowded central-bank calendar. [29]
What to watch into the UK market close today
With the FTSE 100 near 9,750 and the rate-cut narrative driving positioning, late-session moves could be sensitive to:
- Any BoE-linked headlines (including last-minute shifts in analyst or market pricing)
- Sterling moves, as the pound has been steady around $1.3382 on the day, according to Reuters [30]
- Commodity price momentum, particularly gold/silver and industrial metals, given miners are helping lead the rally [31]
- Stock-specific developments (notably in takeover situations and regulatory investigations)
This article reflects market conditions as of approximately 2:00 PM GMT on December 15, 2025 and is for informational purposes, not investment advice.
References
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