Netflix, Inc. stock (NASDAQ: NFLX) is trading near $94.78 on Monday, December 15, 2025, slightly lower on the session after opening around $95.95 and ranging between roughly $94.29 and $96.38 intraday.
But today’s Netflix stock conversation isn’t being driven by subscriber chatter or a surprise content hit. It’s being driven by something far bigger — and far riskier for shareholders: Netflix’s high-stakes attempt to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s studio and streaming assets, even as a rival bid tries to blow up the deal.
Below is what’s happening with NFLX stock today, what analysts are forecasting, and what long-term investors are likely to watch next as Netflix heads toward 2026.
What’s moving Netflix stock on Dec. 15, 2025: Netflix reiterates its Warner Bros. strategy
The headline that set the tone for the day is Netflix’s message that its position on the Warner Bros. Discovery transaction has not changed, despite a hostile counter-offer from Paramount Skydance. In reporting Monday, Reuters said Netflix reaffirmed its commitment to the deal (described as a $72 billion equity deal) even after Paramount Skydance launched a $108.4 billion hostile takeover bid. [1]
In the same reporting, Netflix’s co-CEOs Greg Peters and Ted Sarandos signaled that the company’s strategic direction stays intact, while also underscoring a point that matters to Hollywood and to regulators: Netflix says it intends to preserve theatrical releases for the assets it’s trying to buy. [2]
Reuters also highlighted one of the key arguments Netflix appears to be leaning on as it prepares for antitrust scrutiny: the company is framing the competitive landscape as bigger than “streaming vs. streaming,” pointing to YouTube’s U.S. viewing share (reported at 13%) and Netflix’s expectation that its share would rise from about 8% to about 9% after the acquisition. [3]
That argument isn’t guaranteed to land with regulators. Reuters noted legal experts have raised doubts that the Justice Department would treat Netflix and YouTube as interchangeable competitors, given how different the platforms are. [4]
Inside the CEO letter: Netflix tries to calm staff, investors, and the market
A parallel thread today is the employee-facing communication that spilled into the public market narrative.
Business Insider reported that Peters and Sarandos sent a letter to employees (also filed publicly), describing Netflix’s offer as “pro-consumer” and “pro-innovation,” and positioning the deal as supportive of creators and jobs — language clearly designed for both internal reassurance and an eventual regulatory fight. [5]
Business Insider also reported the co-CEOs emphasized Netflix’s commitment to Warner Bros.’ theatrical model, mentioning upcoming tentpoles such as Minecraft and Superman continuing to debut in theaters. [6]
From a stock perspective, the “why” here is straightforward: markets tend to punish large, complex M&A when the outcome is uncertain. Netflix’s leadership team is trying to keep execution steady in the core business while simultaneously defending a transaction that could take a year or more to close — if it closes at all.
Analyst update today: Wolfe Research cuts Netflix price target to $121 but keeps “Outperform”
One of the most concrete, market-moving datapoints dated Dec. 15, 2025 is an analyst forecast reset.
MarketBeat reported Monday that Wolfe Research lowered its Netflix price target to $121 from $139, while maintaining an “Outperform” rating. [7]
With NFLX around $94.78 today, a $121 target implies roughly 28% upside from the current level (before considering volatility and deal outcomes). [8]
It’s not just one firm. Across Wall Street, the acquisition uncertainty has pulled price targets down — but it hasn’t erased bullishness.
Netflix stock forecast: where Wall Street’s consensus sits now
Even with deal drama, broad analyst consensus still points higher than today’s price — though the range is wide, reflecting the uncertainty around M&A, leverage, and regulatory risk.
MarketBeat’s consensus data shows:
- Average 12-month price target: about $130.51
- High target:$152.50
- Low target:$72.00 [9]
At today’s ~$94–$95 level, that consensus target implies roughly high-30% upside — but the dispersion (from $72 to $152.50) is a reminder that Netflix’s 2026 path now looks more scenario-driven than it has in years. [10]
A separate aggregation at StockAnalysis also characterizes consensus as “Buy” with an average price target around the low-$130s and a similar high/low range. [11]
The fundamentals case for Netflix: revenue growth, margins, and cash flow remain strong
To understand why many analysts remain constructive on Netflix stock even while trimming targets, investors keep circling back to the core business.
In Netflix’s official Q3 2025 shareholder letter, the company reported Q3 revenue of $11.51 billion (+17% year over year) and acknowledged that operating margin came in below guidance due to an expense tied to a dispute with Brazilian tax authorities (roughly $619 million). [12]
Netflix’s forward-looking tone in that letter still matters to today’s stock story because it sets up the “base case” investors compare against the deal risk:
- Netflix forecast Q4 2025 revenue of $11.96 billion with an operating margin forecast of 23.9%. [13]
- Netflix said it expected full-year 2025 revenue of $45.1 billion and a 2025 operating margin of 29% (revised from prior expectations due to that Brazil-related expense). [14]
- Netflix also raised its 2025 free cash flow expectation to approximately $9 billion (± a few hundred million), citing timing of cash payments and lower content spend. [15]
In other words: the underlying Netflix engine — paid streaming, ads, and a disciplined cash-flow profile — is still what many bulls point to as the reason the stock can absorb turbulence, even if the Warner deal takes time or ultimately changes shape.
Content catalysts today: “Stranger Things” returns, and Netflix leans into event TV
Netflix stock doesn’t trade purely on content headlines, but content is still the product — and Netflix is clearly trying to align its slate with bigger “event” moments that support engagement and advertising.
On Dec. 15, 2025, People reported Netflix released the trailer for Stranger Things Season 5: Volume 2, with the next batch of episodes arriving on Dec. 25 and the finale set for Dec. 31. [16]
That timing overlaps with what Netflix flagged in its Q3 shareholder letter: an unusually heavy Q4 slate including the final season of Stranger Things and major live events, including NFL Christmas Day games. [17]
For investors, the reason this matters is less about one show’s popularity and more about the flywheel Netflix is building:
- Big releases drive engagement.
- Engagement supports pricing power and retention.
- A predictable slate and large audiences support advertising growth.
- That supports free cash flow — which Netflix has been highlighting more aggressively. [18]
The stock split effect: why Netflix’s price “looks lower” in 2025
One more wrinkle that still affects how investors talk about NFLX today: Netflix completed a 10-for-1 stock split in 2025.
Netflix announced the split in late October, with trading expected to begin on a split-adjusted basis on Monday, November 17, 2025. [19]
This matters for casual readers because it can make charts and headlines feel misleading: a $95 Netflix share price in December 2025 isn’t directly comparable to the pre-split ~$1,000+ levels from earlier in the year without adjusting for the split.
Key risks for NFLX stock right now: regulation, deal financing, and integration
Netflix’s current setup is a classic “core business vs. corporate action” tug-of-war.
Antitrust and political scrutiny
The Warner deal is expected to face serious antitrust review. Reuters noted Netflix anticipates scrutiny and is already building arguments around market definition (including comparisons to YouTube). [20]
Balance sheet and cost of capital
The market’s skepticism isn’t only ideological — it’s financial. The fear is that a large deal could push Netflix into a more leveraged, less flexible posture just as content spending, sports rights, and advertising build-outs all compete for capital.
Execution and focus risk
Even if Netflix can “walk and chew gum,” investors have seen enough mega-mergers in media to know that integration complexity can quietly drain momentum — especially when creative cultures collide.
Retail investor behavior today: “buy the dip” interest shows up even amid uncertainty
Despite the volatility, there are signs of retail interest in the selloff.
Yahoo Finance (citing Bloomberg reporting) said individual investors were snapping up Netflix shares even after a sharp early-December slide, as Wall Street weighed the implications of a protracted bidding war. [21]
Retail flows don’t decide NFLX’s long-term value on their own, but they can amplify short-term moves — particularly when news is fast, narrative-driven, and headline-heavy.
What investors should watch next for Netflix stock
As of Dec. 15, 2025, Netflix stock is trading like a company with two storylines:
- A fundamentally strong global streaming business generating growing cash flow. [22]
- A high-uncertainty M&A bet that could reshape the company’s competitive position — or become an expensive distraction. [23]
The near-term catalysts and watch-items are clear:
- Any formal updates from Warner Bros. Discovery’s board on competing bids
- Regulatory signals (DOJ posture, timing, market-definition debates) [24]
- Any revisions to deal terms (financing mix, structure, break fees)
- Netflix’s next earnings commentary on advertising momentum and 2026 priorities [25]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.businessinsider.com, 6. www.businessinsider.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. stockanalysis.com, 12. s22.q4cdn.com, 13. s22.q4cdn.com, 14. s22.q4cdn.com, 15. s22.q4cdn.com, 16. people.com, 17. s22.q4cdn.com, 18. s22.q4cdn.com, 19. ir.netflix.net, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. finance.yahoo.com, 22. s22.q4cdn.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. s22.q4cdn.com
