Dec. 15, 2025 — GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV) is back in the spotlight on Monday as the stock digests a massive post–investor update run, fresh analyst coverage, and a fast-evolving debate on how to value the “picks-and-shovels” companies enabling the AI and electrification boom.
Shares were trading around $679 in Monday’s session (as of 14:58 UTC), after swinging between roughly the mid-$670s and the mid-$690s intraday. The move comes days after the company’s upbeat multi-year outlook helped propel the stock to record territory, and as Wall Street continues to publish new price targets and forecasts tied to data-center-driven power demand.
Below is a full roundup of what’s new today (Dec. 15), what changed last week that still matters, and the key catalysts and risks investors are weighing for GE Vernova stock into 2026.
What’s new for GE Vernova stock today (Dec. 15, 2025)
Evercore ISI starts coverage: Outperform, $860 target
One of the most market-relevant headlines Monday is a new coverage initiation: Evercore ISI started GE Vernova with an Outperform rating and a $860 price target, according to a roundup of top Wall Street research calls published today. [1]
Initiations can matter as much as upgrades in a momentum-driven name—especially when a stock has rerated quickly and institutional investors are searching for a “fresh” framework for what comes next.
Zacks doubles down on the “AI energy” narrative
A separate piece circulating this morning from Zacks frames GE Vernova as a defining winner of the AI-era power buildout, noting the stock hit an all-time high earlier this week after updated, AI-linked guidance plus bigger capital returns (dividend and buybacks). [2]
Zacks’ view is explicitly bullish (and not neutral news reporting), but it reflects a broader market reality: GE Vernova is increasingly being treated less like a traditional industrial and more like an infrastructure backbone for AI, grid expansion, and power reliability. [3]
The catalyst behind the surge: GE Vernova’s upgraded 2026–2028 outlook
The reason analysts are still updating models in mid-December is simple: GE Vernova’s Dec. 9 investor update materially raised the company’s medium-term financial ambitions.
Key guidance points that reset expectations
In its investor update materials, GE Vernova said it now anticipates by 2028:
- $52B revenue and a 20% adjusted EBITDA margin (up from a prior $45B revenue and 14% margin outlook) [4]
- At least $22B cumulative free cash flow from 2025–2028 (up from at least $14B previously), after roughly $10B of cumulative capex and R&D over that period [5]
- A backlog expansion from roughly $135B to about $200B by year-end 2028, including Electrification backlog doubling from $30B to $60B [6]
For nearer-term forecasting, the company also laid out:
- 2025 revenue of $36–$37B (trending toward the high end), 8%–9% adjusted EBITDA margin, and $3.5–$4.0B free cash flow (raised from $3.0–$3.5B) [7]
- 2026 revenue of $41–$42B, 11%–13% adjusted EBITDA margin, and $4.5–$5.0B free cash flow [8]
Capital returns: dividend doubled, buyback expanded to $10B
Alongside the outlook raise, GE Vernova’s board approved a $0.50 quarterly dividend (double the prior $0.25) and lifted the share repurchase authorization to $10B from $6B. [9]
The company also disclosed it had used $3.3B of the authorization as of Dec. 3, 2025. [10]
Why the market cares: gas turbines, grid gear, and the AI/data center power crunch
GE Vernova’s “AI trade” angle isn’t about selling GPUs—it’s about selling and servicing the physical power equipment required when electricity demand climbs and reliability becomes non-negotiable.
Gas turbines: sold-out slots and multi-year visibility
In a report following the investor event, Reuters highlighted a core datapoint that has become central to the bull case: GE Vernova’s turbine demand is so strong that production slots are sold out through 2028, and one analyst expected visibility could extend even further. [11]
Reuters also reported GE Vernova estimated about 80 gigawatts of signed combined-cycle gas-turbine contracts by year-end. [12]
On capacity, Reuters noted management targets gas turbine output of 20 GW by mid-2026 and about 24 GW in 2028. [13]
Electrification: backlog doubling and “grid bottleneck” spending
The other engine is electrification—transformers, grid solutions, and equipment needed to connect new generation, reinforce transmission, and feed high-load customers like hyperscale data centers.
GE Vernova’s own investor update materials explicitly call for Electrification backlog to double by 2028. [14]
MarketWatch, covering the investor update-driven rally, similarly emphasized electrification as a key reason the company is “riding the electrification wave,” pointing to the company’s expectation that total backlog rises toward $200B by 2028. [15]
Analyst forecasts: price targets swing higher, but valuation questions grow louder
With GE Vernova stock repriced sharply, the Street is doing two things at once: raising targets based on stronger fundamentals, while also arguing about how much optimism is already in the share price.
The bullish end: $860 to $1,000 targets
Several high-profile moves over the past week reshaped the upper end of the price-target range:
- Evercore ISI initiation today: Outperform, $860 target [16]
- JPMorgan lifted its target to $1,000 (from $740) while maintaining an Overweight rating, citing stronger 2028 targets and multiple paths to upside [17]
- Oppenheimer upgraded to Outperform with an $855 target, arguing the AI infrastructure buildout is larger and longer-lasting than previously expected [18]
- RBC Capital Markets upgraded to Outperform with a $761 target (up from $630), pointing to growth and margin upside that “showed no signs of slowing” after the company raised its medium-term outlook [19]
The cautious end: downgrades after the “epic run”
Not all commentary is bullish.
Barron’s reported that Seaport downgraded GE Vernova from Buy to Hold, arguing risk-reward looked more balanced after the stock’s sharp climb. [20]
That push-and-pull—strong fundamentals, but a higher bar for perfection—is now the defining tension around GE Vernova stock.
Why “consensus” targets look confusing right now
If you check different data providers, you’ll see noticeably different consensus targets and ranges:
- MarketBeat’s tracking shows a consensus target around the mid-$600s with a wide range (roughly $380 to $860), implying limited upside (or modest downside) versus recent trading levels. [21]
- In contrast, Barron’s earlier reporting (based on its own aggregation) cited higher averages and a larger share of bullish ratings around the post-investor update surge. [22]
- Investing.com’s JPMorgan note also referenced an InvestingPro range (roughly $420 to $835) at the time of publication—again showing how quickly targets are moving. [23]
The takeaway: price targets are being revised in real time after the investor update, so “the” consensus depends heavily on which analyst set and timestamp a platform is using.
Credit and balance sheet: S&P upgrade signals improved financial footing
Another meaningful development for long-cycle industrials like GE Vernova is what credit agencies say—because an improving credit profile can lower financing costs and broaden the shareholder base.
Investing.com reported that S&P Global Ratings upgraded GE Vernova to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB-’ and assigned a positive outlook, citing improved profitability. [24]
The same report said S&P expected GE Vernova’s adjusted EBITDA margins to improve (roughly 8%–9% in 2025 and 12%–13% in 2026) and discussed leverage expectations tied to the company’s planned Prolec GE transaction. [25]
Supply chain reality check: rare-earth yttrium becomes a headline risk
Even as the AI-power narrative drives upside, Reuters underscored a very different kind of risk: materials and supply chain constraints.
Reuters reported GE Vernova is working with the U.S. government to increase stockpiles of yttrium, a rare earth used in specialty alloys and coatings relevant to high-temperature applications like gas turbines, after China’s export controls created shortages across multiple industries. [26]
In that same report, Reuters noted prices outside China surged dramatically—up 4,400% between January and November 2025—highlighting how supply disruptions can ripple into costs and production planning. [27]
For investors, this is important because the market is currently rewarding GE Vernova for multi-year demand visibility—yet supply constraints are one of the few forces that can interrupt even the best backlog story.
What investors should watch next for GE Vernova (GEV) stock
With GE Vernova now treated as a marquee “power infrastructure for AI” name, the next phase is likely to be driven by execution—turning backlog into margins and cash at scale.
Here are the biggest signposts:
- Power order momentum and pricing discipline
JPMorgan’s commentary around strong order activity and ongoing pricing tests points to a central 2026 question: can GE Vernova keep pushing price and mix as demand stays hot? [28] - Gas turbine capacity expansion vs. schedule risk
Management has discussed output targets into 2026 and 2028, and analysts are focused on the industry’s tight supply situation. [29] - Electrification backlog conversion
The company’s own plan calls for electrification backlog to double by 2028—investors will want proof in quarterly bookings, margin performance, and working-capital discipline. [30] - Wind: losses now, credibility later
GE Vernova’s outlook still embeds meaningful losses in Wind in the near term, which means the segment remains a swing factor for how quickly consolidated margins can expand. [31] - Timing for the next earnings checkpoint (late January 2026 estimates)
Several market calendars list GE Vernova’s next earnings report as expected around late January 2026, though dates can change and may be estimates until confirmed by the company. [32]
Bottom line: GE Vernova stock is priced for leadership—now it has to deliver
As of Dec. 15, 2025, the story around GE Vernova stock (GEV) is no longer just “strong demand.” It’s a bigger claim: that GE Vernova sits at the intersection of AI-era electricity growth, grid reinvestment, and gas power reliability, with a multi-year backlog and sharply higher medium-term financial targets. [33]
At the same time, the market is forcing a tougher question: how much of that future is already priced in, and what happens if execution slips—whether from supply chain constraints like rare-earths, a slower-than-expected grid buildout, or continued wind losses? [34]
For now, today’s Evercore initiation and the ongoing wave of raised targets show Wall Street still sees GE Vernova as one of the highest-conviction ways to play the power buildout into 2026. [35]
References
1. 247wallst.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.gevernova.com, 5. www.gevernova.com, 6. www.gevernova.com, 7. www.gevernova.com, 8. www.gevernova.com, 9. www.gevernova.com, 10. www.gevernova.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.gevernova.com, 15. www.marketwatch.com, 16. 247wallst.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.investopedia.com, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. www.barrons.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.barrons.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.gevernova.com, 31. www.gevernova.com, 32. www.nasdaq.com, 33. www.gevernova.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. 247wallst.com
