Dec. 15, 2025 — Home Depot, Inc. (The) stock is trading lower on Monday as investors weigh a cautious set of forward-looking signals: weather-driven demand comparisons heading into Q4, a still-sluggish housing backdrop, and the retailer’s preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook from last week’s Investor & Analyst Conference. As of 17:27 UTC on Dec. 15, Home Depot shares were around $356.20, down about 1% on the day.
Below is a complete roundup of the most relevant Home Depot stock news, forecasts, and analyses available as of 15.12.2025, plus the catalysts that could shape HD’s next move.
Home Depot stock price check: where HD stands on Dec. 15, 2025
Home Depot stock has been moving within a relatively tight range during Monday’s session, with the day’s range spanning roughly $353.83 to $362.67.
Intraday pricing snapshots published during U.S. market hours showed HD near $357–$358 around midday Eastern time, reflecting a modest pullback rather than a major re-rating event. [1]
The biggest “why” for HD stock right now: a guarded fiscal 2026 outlook
The most market-moving development in the current news cycle isn’t a single headline from today—it’s the framework Home Depot set for 2026 at its strategic update (Dec. 9), which investors are still digesting.
In that update, Home Depot reaffirmed fiscal 2025 guidance and laid out a preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook that assumes a home improvement market stuck roughly flat:
- Home improvement market:-1% to +1%
- Comparable sales:flat to +2%
- Total sales growth:+2.5% to +4.5%
- Operating margin:~12.4% to 12.6%
- Diluted EPS growth:flat to +4% [2]
That “flat-to-modest” profile matters because Home Depot is effectively telling the market: don’t count on a fast snapback in big-ticket spending—at least not in the base case. Reuters also reported that the outlook came in below analyst expectations for same-store sales and EPS growth, helping explain why the stock has been sensitive to macro headlines since the event. [3]
Home Depot’s “Market Recovery Case”: what management says happens if housing turns
Home Depot didn’t just provide a base outlook. It also outlined a Market Recovery Case—what the company thinks performance can look like once housing activity and larger projects regain momentum:
- Total sales growth:~5% to 6%
- Comparable sales growth:~4% to 5%
- Operating profit growth: faster than sales
- EPS growth:mid- to high-single digits [4]
This is key for HD stock bulls: management is effectively saying the earnings engine is still there—but the timing depends on housing and project mix, not just execution.
Housing and rates: why “better sentiment” still isn’t a clean tailwind for Home Depot
Home Depot’s sales are heavily influenced by the health of housing turnover and the willingness of consumers and Pros to take on discretionary, larger projects. On Dec. 15, a widely watched gauge of builder sentiment improved, but the details underscore why Home Depot remains cautious.
Reuters reported that the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to 39 in December (an eight-month high), yet remained below the 50 break-even line for the 20th straight month, as builders cited affordability pressure and uncertainty. [5]
Even more relevant for a home improvement retailer: Reuters noted that builders are dealing with higher construction costs tied to tariffs, including tariffs affecting imported timber and lumber as well as kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, and that incentives and price cuts are still common to move inventory. [6]
For Home Depot stock, that mix can cut both ways:
- Incentives and price reductions can support volume at the margin.
- But cost pressure and uncertain demand can delay starts and compress budgets—especially for big projects that drive higher tickets.
A Dec. 15 analysis that matters: storm comparisons and why Q4 could “look weaker”
One of the most widely circulated stock-focused analyses today came from a Nasdaq.com article (published Dec. 15) highlighting a less obvious driver of near-term comparisons: storms (or the lack of them).
The piece argues Home Depot is heading into a challenging Q4 because last year benefited from storm-driven demand in categories such as roofing, power generation, and plywood, while this year’s storm impact has been smaller—creating a tougher year-over-year lap. [7]
It also notes management previously pointed to October being most affected by the lack of storms, with comparable sales down 1.5% during that period, and warns that Q4 comparisons could be tougher than Q3 because rebuild activity that helped last year is absent this time. [8]
Importantly for investors trying to model the quarter: the same analysis cited a Zacks consensus estimate of $38.18 billion in Q4 revenue—roughly a 4% decline year over year—framing why headline performance may look soft even if “underlying” demand is stable. [9]
Wall Street forecasts: analyst ratings and where price targets cluster
Analyst forecasts remain broadly constructive—but not euphoric—reflecting Home Depot’s quality and cash generation alongside housing uncertainty.
TipRanks (last 3 months)
TipRanks shows Home Depot at “Moderate Buy”, with an average 12-month price target of $405.75, and a wide range from $320 (low) to $497 (high). [10]
MarketBeat consensus snapshots
MarketBeat’s current consensus snapshot (as of its Dec. 15 update) cites a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating and a consensus target around $401.17, alongside the usual distribution of Buy/Hold/Sell ratings. [11]
MarketBeat also highlighted earlier December rating/target changes, including an Oppenheimer target cut (from $420 to $405) while maintaining a market perform stance. [12]
How to read these targets: the clustering around ~$400–$406 implies analysts see mid-teens upside from today’s mid-$350s level, but the low-end targets show some strategists believe the stock can re-rate lower if housing stays sluggish longer than expected. [13]
What Home Depot said about 2025: reaffirmed sales growth, but EPS pressured
Home Depot’s strategic update reaffirmed fiscal 2025 guidance (52-week year vs. a 53-week fiscal 2024), including:
- Total sales growth: ~3%
- Comparable sales growth:slightly positive (for the comparable 52-week period)
- ~12 new stores
- Diluted EPS: expected to decline ~6% (vs. fiscal 2024) [14]
That EPS pressure is consistent with the macro and cost narrative that has followed the stock through 2025.
The last major earnings catalyst: November’s warning on big-ticket demand and tariffs
Home Depot’s Q3 update in November reset expectations and remains part of the near-term story for HD stock.
Reuters reported on Nov. 18 that Home Depot forecast a bigger drop in full-year profit, citing tariff-driven economic uncertainty that has dampened demand for big-ticket renovations, alongside a housing backdrop that hasn’t recovered the way some investors expected despite easing rate pressure earlier in the year. [15]
The same report highlighted management commentary that consumer uncertainty and continued pressure in housing were disproportionately impacting demand, and that margin performance remained pressured by operating expenses, tariffs, wages, and logistics costs. [16]
Growth narrative beyond housing: “Win the Pro” and the SRS/GMS distribution push
A key part of the bull thesis for Home Depot stock is that the company is building a deeper moat with professional customers—where share gains can matter even in a slow market.
Home Depot’s strategy presentation emphasizes “win the pro” as one of its pillars. [17]
And on the M&A front, Home Depot’s specialty trade distribution arm SRS Distribution completed the acquisition of GMS for an enterprise value of about $5.5 billion, expanding into categories like drywall, ceilings, and steel framing. Management said the combination should unlock cross-selling synergies and improve service/fulfillment options for Pros. [18]
This matters for the stock because Pro demand tends to be more repeatable than DIY—and distribution scale can reduce friction and improve wallet share even when homeowners delay discretionary remodels.
Digital and AI initiatives: “Magic Apron,” Blueprint Takeoffs, and the Creator Portal
Home Depot is also investing in tools designed to pull demand earlier in the project cycle—before shoppers or Pros finalize plans and spending.
Magic Apron (generative AI)
Home Depot introduced Magic Apron, a suite of generative AI tools aimed at helping customers answer “how-to” and product questions and assisting with project planning. [19]
Blueprint Takeoffs (AI for Pros)
The company also launched Blueprint Takeoffs, an AI tool that reads architectural drawings and produces material lists and estimates for single-family projects—compressing a process that can take weeks into days. [20]
Creator Portal (affiliate/commerce push)
On Dec. 10, Home Depot announced a Creator Portal aimed at connecting creators with campaigns and enabling commissions through shoppable links—positioning it as a new channel for product recommendations and discovery. [21]
For investors, these initiatives fit a broader theme: Home Depot is trying to capture intent earlier (planning stage) and reduce the “project friction” that leads customers to abandon larger jobs.
Risk headlines investors are watching: cybersecurity exposure and “investigation” noise
Not all current news is about fundamentals.
TechCrunch: exposed access token (fixed after outreach)
TechCrunch reported on Dec. 12 that a security researcher said Home Depot inadvertently exposed access to internal systems for about a year after an employee published a private access token online; the exposure was later fixed after TechCrunch contacted the company. [22]
While this story does not automatically imply customer data was compromised, cybersecurity headlines can influence sentiment—especially for a retailer with large digital operations and complex logistics systems.
Shareholder-law-firm investigation press release
Separately, a law firm press release circulated on Dec. 10 said it was investigating potential claims on behalf of investors following Home Depot’s Nov. 18 update and stock reaction. These releases are common after sharp stock moves and do not, by themselves, establish wrongdoing. [23]
Dividend: why income investors still pay attention to HD
Home Depot continues to present itself as a shareholder-return story as well as a cyclical recovery story.
The company’s board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $2.30 per share, payable Dec. 18, 2025, and noted it marked the 155th consecutive quarter of paying a cash dividend. [24]
That dividend provides a cushion for investors willing to sit through a slower housing cycle—but it doesn’t eliminate cyclicality risk if big-ticket demand remains weak.
What to watch next for Home Depot stock: the 2026 setup begins now
Here are the catalysts most likely to move HD shares from here:
- Q4 fiscal 2025 results and guidance tone
Market calendars widely estimate Home Depot’s next earnings release for late February 2026 (often shown as around Feb. 24, 2026, though this date may remain unconfirmed until the company formally announces it). [25] - Housing activity and affordability
Builder sentiment improved in December, but it’s still below 50 and builders cite affordability and cost pressures—signals that a clean housing rebound is not yet in hand. [26] - Tariffs and input costs
Tariff-related cost pressure is showing up in both Home Depot commentary and broader housing construction economics, shaping consumer and Pro project math. [27] - Storm season “noise” vs. underlying demand
With storm-driven comparisons flagged as a Q4 headwind, investors will try to separate weather volatility from the true underlying trend in project demand. [28]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. corporate.homedepot.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. corporate.homedepot.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.nasdaq.com, 8. www.nasdaq.com, 9. www.nasdaq.com, 10. www.tipranks.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.tipranks.com, 14. corporate.homedepot.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. corporate.homedepot.com, 18. corporate.homedepot.com, 19. ir.homedepot.com, 20. corporate.homedepot.com, 21. www.prnewswire.com, 22. techcrunch.com, 23. www.globenewswire.com, 24. ir.homedepot.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.nasdaq.com
