Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ: TXN) traded lower on Monday, December 15, 2025, after a high-profile Wall Street call reignited a familiar debate around the analog chipmaker: when the semiconductor cycle turns up, will TI’s heavy manufacturing buildout translate into stronger long-term competitiveness—or weigh on margins and free cash flow in the near term?
By mid‑session, TXN was trading around $178.50.
What’s happening with TXN stock on 15 December 2025
The clear catalyst driving the day’s coverage is a rare, “double downgrade” from Goldman Sachs:
- Goldman cut Texas Instruments to “Sell” from “Buy”
- Price target cut to $156 from $200
- Goldman’s thesis: the analog market may be starting a cyclical recovery, but TI’s recent capacity and utilization choices could limit margin and earnings upside versus peers. [1]
Barron’s characterized the move as unusual for a mega-cap, high-quality franchise and highlighted Goldman’s core concern: TI expanded manufacturing capacity and maintained relatively high utilization even as demand cooled, contributing to elevated inventory and higher depreciation pressure. [2]
Goldman also forecast depreciation costs of roughly $2.3 billion to $2.7 billion in fiscal 2026, a headwind that can matter a lot for a company whose investor narrative is deeply tied to operating leverage and cash returns. [3]
Multiple market briefs echoed the same driver—TXN down on the downgrade and new $156 target—showing how quickly the call spread across the tape. [4]
Why Goldman’s call matters beyond a one-day move
Goldman’s note landed at a moment when semiconductor investors are increasingly separating the sector into AI “winners” and cyclical/industrial “recoveries.” The bank’s 2026 outlook argues:
- Hyperscaler AI spending is expected to keep rising, supporting digital, memory, storage, and semiconductor production equipment in 2026.
- Analog’s recovery may be real, but “gradual” and uneven, making stock selection more sensitive to company-specific execution. [5]
That framework is important for TI because Texas Instruments is broadly viewed as a bellwether for analog demand across industrial and automotive—large end markets, but not always the same momentum engine as data-center AI builds.
In Goldman’s view, TI’s cycle positioning is complicated by what it called record inventory levels and the possibility that free cash flow targets could be missed, which could pressure the stock in the medium term. [6]
Separately, a Reuters item syndicated through trading platforms summarized a similar message: Goldman’s team sees limited AI leverage for TI and argued that the company’s strategic choices leave it with less cyclical margin expansion versus certain analog peers. [7]
The “inventory + depreciation” debate: what the numbers say
TI’s inventory has been a recurring focus because it connects directly to both pricing dynamics and factory utilization. In TI’s own third‑quarter 2025 financial release, the company reported inventories of $4.829 billion as of September 30, 2025, up from $4.296 billion a year earlier. [8]
That does not, by itself, prove “too much inventory,” but it gives investors hard data to weigh against the bearish argument: if inventories stay high into an upturn, earnings may not snap back as strongly as in prior cycles, especially with rising depreciation from new capacity.
This is where Goldman’s forecast becomes relevant. If depreciation rises meaningfully into 2026, it can dampen gross margin recovery, even if revenue improves.
Where Wall Street stands today: targets and ratings are still split
Despite the downgrade headlines, broader analyst sentiment does not appear uniformly bearish.
TipRanks reported that TXN held a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating based on recent coverage and an average price target around $192.55, implying upside from current levels (as of the time of the report). [9]
This sets up a wide dispersion:
- Goldman (Sell): $156
- Consensus averages: low-to-mid $190s (varies by source and timing) [10]
That gap is often what creates volatility around “quality compounder” stocks: bulls underwrite long-duration share gains supported by manufacturing scale and shareholder returns, while bears focus on near-term margin math and cycle execution.
Earnings outlook: what TI guided, and what the market is watching next
The latest company guidance still frames expectations
In its Q3 2025 release, TI reported:
- Q3 2025 revenue: $4.74 billion
- Q3 2025 EPS: $1.48
- Q4 outlook: revenue $4.22 billion to $4.58 billion
- Q4 outlook: EPS $1.13 to $1.39 [11]
That Q4 outlook was a major talking point in late October because it pointed to a recovery that is present but not accelerating sharply.
A Reuters report at the time tied TI’s softer outlook to continued uncertainty around semiconductor tariffs and the pace of analog recovery. It also quoted CEO Haviv Ilan describing the recovery as occurring at a “moderate” pace and noted the company’s large planned U.S. manufacturing expansion. [12]
When is the next earnings report?
Earnings calendars are not perfectly consistent until the company confirms a date. As of today, major trackers point to late January 2026, with different estimated dates shown across platforms (for example, Nasdaq and MarketBeat have pointed to around January 22, 2026 (estimated), while other calendars show different late‑January entries). [13]
What investors will likely focus on next quarter:
- Inventory trajectory (is it stabilizing or still rising?)
- Gross margin and operating margin direction (how much is depreciation diluting recovery?)
- Capex intensity and utilization commentary
- Any changes in demand tone across industrial and automotive
- Signals on free cash flow coverage versus dividends and buybacks
Dividend narrative: still a major pillar for TXN investors
Texas Instruments remains one of the more prominent shareholder-return stories in large-cap semiconductors.
In September 2025, TI announced it would raise its quarterly dividend 4% to $1.42 per share (annualized $5.68), marking 22 consecutive years of dividend increases. [14]
The company’s board later declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.42 per share, payable in November to shareholders of record in late October. [15]
At roughly $178 per share, the annualized dividend implies a yield in the neighborhood of ~3%+ (yield fluctuates with price). [16]
For long-term holders, the dividend can soften drawdowns. For skeptics, the question becomes whether free cash flow will comfortably cover payouts during a period of elevated capex and depreciation—exactly the pressure point Goldman flagged. [17]
Big strategic backdrop: TI is spending heavily on U.S. manufacturing
To understand why depreciation and utilization are front-and-center, it helps to recall TI’s manufacturing posture.
In June 2025, TI announced plans to invest more than $60 billion across seven U.S. semiconductor fabs across mega-sites in Texas and Utah, describing it as the largest investment in foundational semiconductor manufacturing in U.S. history and highlighting Sherman, Texas as its largest mega-site (up to $40 billion for four fabs). [18]
That strategy can be interpreted two ways:
- Bull case: Owning more capacity and driving more production through 300mm can strengthen cost structure and supply assurance over time, helping TI win durable industrial/auto sockets.
- Bear case (today’s theme): If demand normalizes slowly, fixed-cost absorption and depreciation can pressure margins and make earnings recovery lag peers.
Other “current” headline risk investors are watching this week
While Goldman’s downgrade dominates today’s market narrative, TI has also been mentioned in recent legal reporting over allegations that semiconductor components ended up in Russian weapons used in attacks in Ukraine.
Axios reported that several lawsuits filed in Dallas County accuse TI and other companies of supplying chips later found in weapons used in attacks on civilians, and it noted TI has said it stopped selling into Russia and Belarus in February 2022 and opposes military use of its products. [19]
Local reporting in Texas has described the suits as targeting multiple companies and seeking damages tied to specific incidents and alleged export‑restriction evasion. [20]
This is not a forecastable financial driver like margins or demand, but it can introduce headline volatility and questions about compliance controls and reputational risk.
What investors should watch next: the near-term checklist for TXN
If you’re following Texas Instruments stock into year-end and into early 2026, today’s research and reporting suggests a practical checklist:
- Inventory normalization: Does TI show measurable progress reducing inventory relative to sales? [21]
- Depreciation and utilization: Will new capacity lead to higher depreciation that caps margin upside in the early innings of a recovery? [22]
- Free cash flow trajectory: Can TI sustain “shareholder return” commitments through a heavy investment cycle? [23]
- End-market tone: Are industrial and automotive orders improving steadily, or still uneven? [24]
- Tariff and trade uncertainty: Does guidance reflect ongoing policy risk in 2026? [25]
- Street positioning: Does Goldman’s call pull other firms toward lower targets, or does it become an outlier as the cycle turns?
Bottom line
On December 15, 2025, Texas Instruments stock is being repriced—at least at the margin—around a simple tension:
- A constructive analog recovery narrative for 2026, supported by expectations of gradual improvement in industrial and automotive demand [26]
versus - Company-specific execution and financial headwinds, particularly inventory levels and depreciation pressure tied to aggressive capacity investment. [27]
For investors, this is less about whether analog recovers at all and more about whether TI’s chosen path—heavy U.S. manufacturing expansion, large fixed-cost base, and a shareholder-return model—delivers a clean earnings and cash-flow inflection when demand improves. [28]
References
1. www.barrons.com, 2. www.barrons.com, 3. www.barrons.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.tradingview.com, 8. www.ti.com, 9. www.tipranks.com, 10. www.tipranks.com, 11. www.ti.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. www.prnewswire.com, 15. www.prnewswire.com, 16. www.prnewswire.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.ti.com, 19. www.axios.com, 20. www.expressnews.com, 21. www.ti.com, 22. www.barrons.com, 23. www.ti.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.barrons.com, 28. www.ti.com
