Copper prices are back in focus heading into the final stretch of 2025, with the “red metal” hovering near record territory after a sharp run-up and an equally sharp bout of volatility late last week.
As of the latest mid‑afternoon pricing available, benchmark COMEX copper futures (most‑active contract) traded around $5.4185 per pound, up about 1.1% on the day, with the day’s range roughly $5.3433–$5.5192, according to Investing.com’s derived real-time feed. [1]
In London, copper is still being priced like a market wrestling with two competing stories: (1) tightness and inventory distortions linked to U.S. stockpiling and (2) macro and China-demand anxiety that can knock prices around quickly. On Monday, Reuters reported LME three‑month copper up about 1.4% to $11,678 per metric ton by late afternoon in Europe. [2]
Below is what’s moving copper today, the biggest headlines from Dec. 15, 2025, and where major forecasts are landing for 2026.
Copper price now: the key levels traders are watching
Copper is being quoted differently depending on the benchmark and venue, but the message is consistent: prices are elevated, and the market is moving in big, fast increments.
- COMEX (U.S.) copper futures: around $5.4185/lb, +1.11% on the session in the latest update, with heavy volume for the day and a wide intraday range. [3]
- LME (London) three‑month copper: $11,678/mt, +1.4% in Reuters’ session update. [4]
- LME three‑month (SMM/Metal.com feed): last quoted around $11,686/mt, +1.16%, with a reported daily range up to $11,890.5/mt. [5]
The market is also still digesting Friday’s record-setting spike. Reuters noted copper hit a record high of $11,952/mt on Friday before volatility returned. [6]
What’s driving copper today: dollar moves, short covering, and a China tug-of-war
1) A weaker dollar is offering near-term support
Copper is priced in dollars globally, so a softer greenback can mechanically make dollar‑denominated metals more attractive for non‑U.S. buyers. Reuters specifically pointed to a weaker dollar supporting copper on Monday even as China concerns lingered. [7]
2) Traders are repositioning into settlement and year-end
One of the more “market microstructure” drivers today is positioning. Reuters described short (bearish) positions being cut or rolled ahead of midweek settlement. [8]
That matters because when positioning becomes crowded, price can jump quickly on relatively ordinary headlines.
3) China’s mixed signals still cap enthusiasm
Copper can rally hard on supply tightness, but it’s still tethered to end-demand expectations—especially from China.
Reuters highlighted that China’s factory output growth slowed to a 15‑month low in November, while new home prices extended a decline, underscoring persistent property‑sector pressure. [9]
That combination—slower industrial momentum and fragile real estate—keeps the market wary of extrapolating high prices into a straight line.
Inventories are the pressure point: LME stocks vs U.S. stockpiling
If there’s a single structural theme running through today’s copper market, it’s the inventory and flow story—particularly the idea that metal is being “pulled” into U.S. warehouses.
Reuters reported that about 39% of 165,875 tons of copper in LME‑registered warehouses was marked for delivery out(i.e., earmarked to leave), a statistic traders watch because it can signal tightening availability. [10]
At the same time, Reuters said daily inflows into COMEX copper stocks continued, with inventories already at record highs, driven by higher U.S. prices and arbitrage incentives. [11]
This is why copper can feel “tight” even when macro data (especially from China) looks soft: where the metal sits—and where it’s moving—can dominate the price action.
Fresh forecasts and outlook changes dated Dec. 15, 2025
Goldman Sachs lifts its 2026 copper forecast
A major headline for Dec. 15 is Goldman Sachs raising its 2026 copper price forecast to $11,400/mt from $10,650/mt, according to a Reuters item carried by TradingView. [12]
The reasoning is explicitly linked to trade policy probabilities and affordability politics: Goldman cited reduced odds of a refined copper tariff being implemented in the first half of 2026—not “no tariff risk,” but a shifting timeline. [13]
Goldman also put numbers around tariff scenarios, saying there is a 55% chance of a 15% tariff on copper importsbeing announced in the first half of 2026, with implementation slated for 2027 and the possibility of higher rates later. [14]
Just as importantly, that same Reuters/TradingView update frames the tariff narrative as a global pricing engine: the prospect of future tariffs could keep U.S. copper trading at a premium, encourage stockpiling, and tighten supply outside the U.S. [15]
Citi’s bullish scenario gains attention: $13,000 early 2026 and $15,000 in Q2
Another widely circulated Dec. 15 read-through is Citi’s more aggressive upside case. AASTOCKS reported Citi’s view that copper could rise to $13,000/mt early next year and potentially reach $15,000/mt in Q2 2026, supported by limited mine supply and U.S. stockpiling dynamics. [16]
AASTOCKS also emphasizes the thematic demand story—electrification, grid expansion, and data-center buildouts—as ongoing support for higher copper pricing into 2026. [17]
“Expect choppy, volatile trade” into year-end
Even the near-term tone from market strategists is cautious on the path, if not the direction. Reuters quoted Marex senior metals strategist Alastair Munro warning that prices are likely to remain “choppy and volatile” into year-end and into the first quarter. [18]
That’s an important cue for anyone following copper “price today” headlines: the market is not only high—it is fast.
Today’s market-structure headline: the LME’s position-limit rule changes
Not every Dec. 15 copper headline is about price prints. One is about how the world’s main base-metals marketplace plans to police positions in the future.
Reuters reported the London Metal Exchange outlined plans for new position‑limit rules from July 2026, as responsibility shifts from the UK Financial Conduct Authority to trading venues. The LME said the changes are intended to make limits more responsive to market dynamics and give the exchange a more holistic view of exposure. [19]
This matters for copper because, in extreme squeezes or dislocations, position rules can influence how quickly an imbalance can build—and how it is managed.
Supply chain moves in the background: a major U.S. smelter plan
Beyond trading and inventories, governments and companies are trying to “re‑plumb” critical-minerals supply chains—and copper is a core part of that effort.
Reuters reported on Dec. 15 that Korea Zinc plans a $7.4 billion smelter investment in the United States, intended to produce non‑ferrous metals including copper (with commercial operations rolling out gradually from 2027 to 2029). [20]
This isn’t a 2025 supply fix, but it’s part of the longer arc the copper market is pricing: new capacity is expensive, slow, and increasingly strategic.
What the derivatives tape is saying: volumes and open interest
For traders watching whether the move is “real” or just thin year-end flows, market activity is also getting attention.
The Associated Press reported that as of 10:00 AM (Dec. 15), estimated COMEX copper futures volume was 30,578 contracts, with open interest at 258,743, down modestly from prior levels. [21]
That snapshot supports the broader narrative of a market actively repositioning after Friday’s whipsaw.
The big question for copper into 2026: is this a supply squeeze, a tariff trade, or a demand boom?
Right now, copper is being driven by a three-way tension:
- Physical tightness signals (like LME stocks marked for delivery and elevated price levels) [22]
- Policy and tariff uncertainty that can re-route global inventory flows and create regional pricing premiums [23]
- Demand confidence, especially in China, where weak property data remains a recurring headwind even as industrial and strategic demand themes (grids, electrification, data infrastructure) stay supportive [24]
That’s why today’s copper price action can look “inconsistent” at first glance: copper can rise on dollar weakness and positioning even while traders cite soft China numbers—because inventory dynamics and policy probabilities can dominate the daily tape.
Bottom line: copper remains near record levels, but volatility is the base case
Copper’s latest mid‑afternoon read shows the market still priced near the high end of the past year, with COMEX near $5.42/lb and LME copper near $11,700/mt in widely followed benchmarks. [25]
But Dec. 15’s news flow makes one point clear: the next leg—up or down—may be decided less by a single macro print and more by how inventories move, how wide U.S.–ex‑U.S. pricing gaps stay, and what the market concludes about tariff timelines. [26]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.metal.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.tradingview.com, 13. www.tradingview.com, 14. www.tradingview.com, 15. www.tradingview.com, 16. www.aastocks.com, 17. www.aastocks.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. apnews.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.tradingview.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.tradingview.com
