Note on timing: U.S. markets just closed in New York on Monday, Dec. 15, 2025 (4:00 p.m. ET) — which is already Dec. 16, 2025 in parts of Europe and Asia. The after-hours prices below reflect the post-close session immediately following that U.S. close. [1]
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) ended the regular session higher and then barely budged in early after-hours trading, as investors digested a fast-moving mix of headlines: a software acquisition aimed at strengthening Nvidia’s open-source ecosystem, a new generation of open AI models, and fresh signs that demand for China-eligible H200 chips could be pressuring supply. [2]
At the same time, the next U.S. session is shaping up to be macro-heavy. A delayed, closely watched U.S. jobs report is due before the bell, and it may influence Treasury yields and the broader “AI trade” sentiment that has recently turned choppy. [3]
NVDA after-hours: where Nvidia stock stands right now
- Regular-session close: about $176.29 (up roughly 0.7% on the day) [4]
- Early after-hours (about 4:14 p.m. ET): about $176.16, down a fraction (roughly -0.07%) [5]
- Day’s trading range (regular session): roughly $175.03 to $178.42 [6]
The takeaway from the tape: the stock’s reaction after the bell has been muted so far, suggesting traders are still weighing whether today’s announcements are near-term catalysts—or more about reinforcing Nvidia’s longer-term platform strategy.
The three storylines driving Nvidia stock headlines today
1) Nvidia doubles down on open-source infrastructure with the SchedMD (Slurm) acquisition
Nvidia said it has acquired SchedMD, the company behind Slurm, an open-source workload manager widely used to schedule and manage large compute jobs—exactly the kind of “plumbing” that matters as AI training and inference scale across massive clusters. Financial terms were not disclosed, and Nvidia said it would continue distributing the software on an open-source basis. [7]
Why this matters to investors: Nvidia’s competitive advantage isn’t just its GPUs—it’s the broader ecosystem (software, tooling, developer workflows, cluster management) that keeps customers building on Nvidia hardware. Reuters also highlighted Nvidia’s proprietary CUDA software as a key pillar of its dominance, and Slurm fits into that “sticky platform” narrative—especially for labs, supercomputing centers, and AI builders orchestrating huge runs. [8]
Nvidia’s own announcement frames Slurm as a critical layer for HPC and AI, noting its adoption across top supercomputing systems and emphasizing that Nvidia will keep it vendor-neutral and open-source. [9]
2) Nvidia launches “Nemotron 3,” a new open AI model family aimed at agentic AI
Earlier today, Nvidia unveiled the third generation of its Nemotron models—Nemotron 3—positioned as “faster, cheaper and smarter” than prior versions, with the smallest version (Nemotron 3 Nano) available now and two larger versions coming in the first half of 2026. [10]
From Nvidia’s own release, Nemotron 3 is being marketed as an open-model stack for agentic AI (multi-agent systems that coordinate tasks), with Nano, Super, and Ultra sizes and a focus on efficiency and transparency. Nvidia says Nemotron 3 Nano delivers significantly higher throughput than its predecessor and supports a very large context window, while the larger models lean on Blackwell-era training efficiencies. (These are Nvidia’s claims.) [11]
Why this matters: Open models are increasingly strategic, not just philosophical. Reuters points to rapid progress among Chinese open-source AI labs and notes Nvidia’s positioning as one of the most prominent U.S. providers of open models at a time when some major U.S. players have reportedly explored more closed approaches. [12]
Wired’s take is that Nvidia’s push into models is also a defensive and ecosystem move—especially as large AI developers explore alternatives, including in-house silicon. [13]
3) China-facing H200 demand, supply decisions, and political risk remain in focus
A major Nvidia overhang—and potential upside lever—has been the evolving policy around which advanced chips can be sold into China and under what conditions.
Reuters reported recently that Nvidia told Chinese clients it is evaluating adding production capacity for H200 chips after orders exceeded current output, following a decision by President Donald Trump to allow exports of H200 processors to China with a 25% fee arrangement. [14]
That policy shift has become both a demand story and a political story. Reuters has also reported U.S. lawmaker scrutiny of the decision to allow H200 sales. [15]
Investor’s Business Daily, citing the situation, framed today’s trade as being supported by reports of high China demand for H200 chips, while noting that the policy details still need finalization and that China must ultimately accept the imports. [16]
What to watch here: even if demand is real, timing and approvals matter, and any new restrictions, compliance headlines, or changes in licensing conditions can quickly affect sentiment.
Analyst forecasts and today’s Wall Street tone: bullish targets, but volatility is rising
Despite the recent pullback in mega-cap AI names, several analysts kept a constructive stance on Nvidia today:
- Bernstein reiterated an Outperform rating with a $275 price target, according to an Investing.com report. [17]
- BofA Securities reiterated Buy with a $275 price target after a meeting with Nvidia investor relations, emphasizing Nvidia’s positioning versus competitors and performance expectations for upcoming products. [18]
- J.P. Morgan maintained an Overweight rating and a $250 target, while pointing to a potential options-based trading opportunity amid elevated volatility. [19]
For broader context, consensus-style aggregators still show substantial upside embedded in typical analyst targets (with an average target around the mid-$250s in at least one major compilation), though these figures can change as new notes roll in. [20]
One important near-term read: options markets appear to be pricing meaningful movement. Barchart displayed Nvidia implied volatility around the upper-30% range (annualized) and listed Nvidia’s next earnings date in late February 2026, underscoring that volatility is not only about earnings—it’s also about policy headlines and sector sentiment. [21]
The bigger backdrop: AI sentiment has been shaky into year-end
Nvidia stock is trading in a market that’s still debating the durability of the AI infrastructure boom—especially after sharp reactions to other tech earnings late last week.
Reuters’ “Morning Bid” column described an “AI-related shakeout” that pressured parts of the sector, noting that disappointing news from other AI-linked companies helped drag Nvidia lower on Friday before it “regained some ground” Monday amid the H200 capacity story. [22]
This matters because Nvidia often trades as a proxy for the overall AI buildout: when investors rotate away from high-multiple AI infrastructure names, NVDA can move even without Nvidia-specific news.
What to know before the next market open tomorrow
Here are the key items that could influence NVDA in premarket and early trading:
1) U.S. jobs report: delayed “Employment Situation” release hits before the bell
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the Employment Situation (November 2025) on Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. ET. [23]
This report is unusually important because it follows disruptions from a government shutdown. Reuters reports the release will combine some October establishment-survey details into November’s report, and there will be gaps in some historical series due to missing household survey data in October. [24]
Forecasts to watch: a Reuters survey of economists cited expectations for +50,000 jobs in November and an unemployment rate around 4.4% (for November). [25]
Why NVDA traders should care: a “hotter” or “cooler” report can shift rate expectations and long-term yields quickly—often moving high-growth tech and semiconductor stocks in the first 30–60 minutes after the open.
2) AI chip China policy details remain a live catalyst
Even after the headline decision allowing H200 exports with a 25% fee arrangement, key pieces remain in motion (Commerce Department finalization, licensing mechanics, customer approvals, and Chinese-side acceptance). [26]
Any overnight headlines—especially from Washington or Beijing—can become the dominant driver of NVDA premarket, sometimes overriding fundamentals.
3) Watch for follow-through (or fade) on today’s “platform” announcements
The SchedMD/Slurm acquisition and Nemotron 3 release are both fundamentally about locking in the ecosystem: helping developers and enterprises build AI applications faster, schedule massive workloads efficiently, and keep the Nvidia stack central.
The key question for tomorrow’s session is whether the market treats these as:
- signal events that reinforce Nvidia’s moat (software + models + infrastructure), or
- supporting news that doesn’t materially change near-term revenue compared with GPU demand and export policy.
4) Volatility and positioning: expect bigger swings than a normal December session
Even with a calm early after-hours tape, today’s analyst commentary and options framing points to a market that’s actively trading Nvidia—not just holding it. [27]
In practical terms, that tends to mean:
- quicker reactions to macro headlines,
- sharper intraday reversals, and
- more sensitivity to peer stock moves (AMD, Broadcom, etc.).
Bottom line for NVDA investors and traders tonight
Nvidia stock is ending the day on a steadier note, with after-hours trading essentially flat following a regular-session gain. [28]
But tomorrow’s setup looks anything but sleepy: a major premarket jobs report, continued attention on China-facing chip policy and supply, and fresh debate about the AI buildout’s next phase all have the potential to move NVDA quickly at the open. [29]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. blogs.nvidia.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.wired.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.investors.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.barrons.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.barchart.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.bls.gov, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.barrons.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. www.reuters.com
