Circle Internet Group, Inc. (NYSE: CRCL) ended Monday, December 15, 2025, under heavy pressure—and the stock’s modest after-hours move suggests investors are still digesting a mix of fresh company news, crypto-market risk appetite, and interest-rate expectations.
After a sharp regular-session selloff, CRCL traded around $75.30 in after-hours action (as of 4:38 p.m. ET), down about 0.21% after the close. The stock finished the regular session at $75.46, down roughly 9.6% on the day. [1]
Below is what matters most after the bell on Dec. 15—and what to keep on your radar before Tuesday’s (Dec. 16) open.
CRCL after-hours and closing recap: a steep down day, then stabilization
Key numbers from Monday’s tape:
- Regular-session close: $75.46 (about -9.6%) [2]
- After-hours (4:38 p.m. ET): ~$75.30 (about -0.21% vs. close) [3]
- Intraday range: The stock traded as low as ~$74.73 during the session, according to market coverage tracking Monday’s slide. [4]
- Volume: Roughly ~14.9 million shares changed hands, below the stock’s recent average cited in market commentary. [5]
The headline takeaway: the big move happened during regular hours; after hours, CRCL largely held the lows rather than continuing to cascade lower.
Today’s biggest company headline: Circle’s Interop Labs acquisition deal (cross-chain bet)
The most consequential new Circle-specific story published today was Circle’s announcement that it signed an agreement to acquire key talent and proprietary intellectual property from Interop Labs, known as core contributors to the Axelar Network.
Circle says the move is intended to strengthen its cross-chain infrastructure strategy and accelerate interoperability work connected to Arc and CCTP (Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol)—with the transaction expected to close in early 2026. [6]
Two clarifications from Circle are especially important for investors trying to map “what exactly is Circle buying?”:
- The transaction concerns the Interop Labs team and proprietary IP (not the entire Axelar ecosystem). [7]
- Axelar Network, Foundation and the AXL token are expected to remain independent, with governance continuing under the community and open-source components staying open-source. [8]
Why this matters for CRCL:
Circle has been positioning itself not just as a stablecoin issuer (USDC), but as infrastructure for moving tokenized value across chains. If interoperability becomes a “picks-and-shovels” layer for onchain finance, Circle is signaling it wants to own more of that stack—rather than depend on third-party bridges and messaging layers.
Why the stock still fell today:
Even positive strategic news can get overwhelmed when the market is in a risk-off posture toward crypto-linked equities (more on that next). And acquisitions—especially “acqui-hire + IP” deals—often raise practical questions investors immediately pressure-test: integration, execution timeline, and near-term ROI.
The broader force hitting CRCL today: “crypto-linked stocks” moved with risk appetite
Circle increasingly trades as a high-beta “crypto-infrastructure” equity. On Monday, market coverage highlighted that Bitcoin fell below $86,000 in a risk-off move, weighing on crypto-linked stocks including Circle. [9]
That backdrop matters because when investors de-risk crypto exposure, they often sell a basket—exchanges, miners, brokers, and infrastructure names—regardless of whether a specific company printed good news that day.
Translation for Tuesday morning: If crypto prices rebound overnight, CRCL can catch a bid. If crypto stays soft, the stock can remain heavy even without new Circle-specific negatives.
The regulatory story investors are still pricing: OCC conditional approval and Circle’s “trust bank” path
While this part of the narrative didn’t start today, it remains a major driver of medium-term expectations—and it’s part of what many investors are continuously repricing in CRCL.
Circle announced on December 12, 2025 that it received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish a national trust bank, First National Digital Currency Bank, N.A. [10]
Circle explicitly framed this as a milestone toward GENIUS Act compliance (which Circle notes became U.S. law in July 2025) and as infrastructure to strengthen oversight of the USDC Reserve. [11]
Separately, the OCC confirmed it conditionally approved five national trust bank charter applications, including First National Digital Currency Bank and Ripple National Trust Bank, plus conversions for BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Paxos. [12]
One key nuance: reporting around the approvals emphasized these are trust banks, not full-service commercial banks—meaning they generally do not take deposits or make loans in the way a traditional bank does. [13]
What to watch next: “Conditional approval” is not the finish line. Markets will watch for updates on timelines and conditions required for finalization—because that determines when (and how much) this regulatory milestone can translate into operating leverage, product rollout, or new institutional flows.
Fundamentals that matter right now: USDC growth vs. interest-rate sensitivity
Circle’s latest reported quarter remains central to the valuation debate.
In its Q3 2025 results release, Circle reported:
- USDC in circulation of $73.7 billion at quarter end (+108% year-over-year)
- Total revenue and reserve income of $740 million (+66% year-over-year)
- Net income of $214 million (+202% year-over-year) [14]
However, multiple analysts and investor notes have stressed a tension that becomes more important into 2026: Circle’s revenue is highly sensitive to short-term interest rates, because a meaningful portion of economics is tied to reserve income. A prominent analysis published today argued that additional Fed cuts can pressure growth unless USDC circulation accelerates meaningfully. [15]
Why that’s relevant tonight: Macro matters for CRCL. Which brings us to Tuesday’s setup.
Analyst forecasts and “where Wall Street stands” tonight
Coverage and forecasts remain mixed—and the dispersion is wide enough that it’s become part of CRCL’s volatility.
A market summary published today described:
- A “Hold”-leaning consensus view and an average price target around $144.69 (based on the outlet’s compilation), alongside mentions of multiple firms trimming targets in recent periods. [16]
- The same recap also highlighted that CRCL has been trading well below a referenced 50-day simple moving average level—underscoring how far momentum has cooled from earlier highs. [17]
Meanwhile, one of the most-cited bearish targets still in circulation comes from Wolfe Research coverage referenced in market data/ratings trackers: a $60 price target (initiated Dec. 2, 2025). [18]
You’ll also find bullish, long-term framing in mainstream investing commentary published today that groups Circle among “undervalued” names going into 2026—but those pieces often assume a favorable macro/crypto tape and continued stablecoin adoption. [19]
How to interpret this as a trader/investor:
CRCL is currently a stock where narratives compete:
- “Regulated stablecoin infrastructure becomes core financial plumbing” (bull case)
- “Rates normalize downward + competition rises + valuation compresses” (bear case)
That disagreement is exactly what produces large swings around news and macro catalysts.
What to know before the market opens Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025
Here are the practical, near-term catalysts that can move CRCL tomorrow morning—even if Circle releases no additional company news overnight.
1) A data-heavy Tuesday can move rates (and CRCL tends to care about rates)
Markets are bracing for key U.S. economic releases, including delayed jobs reports (October and November) that were postponed due to the U.S. government shutdown, per Reuters coverage published today. [20]
Investopedia’s economic-calendar reporting also flagged Dec. 16 as a day for the November U.S. employment report (including October payrolls) and October retail sales, among other delayed releases. [21]
Why CRCL traders watch this: data → yields → risk appetite and the market’s path for policy rates. And Circle’s “reserve income” sensitivity can amplify those moves. [22]
2) Overnight crypto price action can set the tone
In early Tuesday global trading, Reuters noted Bitcoin around the mid-$86,000s after a prior-day drop, underscoring how closely macro and risk sentiment are interacting with crypto right now. [23]
Given Monday’s linkage between falling Bitcoin and crypto-linked equities (including Circle), crypto’s overnight direction can matter for CRCL at the open. [24]
3) Watch follow-through on Circle’s Interop Labs deal: “strategic positive,” but markets want details
The Interop Labs acquisition agreement is fresh, and investors may look for:
- More clarity on what IP is being acquired and how it plugs into Arc and CCTP
- Whether the deal changes Circle’s product roadmap and go-to-market timeline
- Any signals about costs (hiring/retention, integration) vs. expected upside
Circle has said the deal is expected to close in early 2026 and that Axelar remains independent—so this is more of a strategic infrastructure build than an immediate revenue event. [25]
4) Volatility expectations: options markets are pricing big swings
For traders, one useful “forecast” is what the options market is implying about near-term movement. An options summary for CRCL indicated an implied move of roughly ±$5.02 (about 6.5%) into the Dec. 19 expiration window. [26]
That doesn’t predict direction—but it’s a clue that the market expects continued sharp moves.
5) Technical levels and “capitulation vs. bounce” dynamics
Monday’s drop pushed CRCL toward the low end of its recent range; some market trackers list a 52-week low around $74.74 and a 52-week high around $263.45—illustrating the magnitude of CRCL’s 2025 volatility. [27]
If CRCL opens weak Tuesday, many eyes will be on whether it holds the mid-$70s area or breaks lower. If it opens strong, the question becomes whether buyers can reclaim prior breakdown zones (often accompanied by higher volume).
One more “today” headline investors may miss: NYSE highlights Circle as a flagship 2025 crypto listing
In a Dec. 15 press release, Intercontinental Exchange / NYSE highlighted that it listed several digital-asset-related public debuts in 2025, explicitly naming Circle Internet Group (CRCL) among notable IPOs and citing the NYSE’s push toward crypto-linked listings and digital asset ETFs. [28]
This isn’t a direct trading catalyst like earnings—but it reinforces the broader theme that Circle is being framed as a marquee public-market crypto/fintech infrastructure name.
Bottom line heading into Tuesday’s open
Circle (CRCL) finished Dec. 15 with a sharp regular-session decline and a calmer after-hours tape. [29] The biggest fresh company headline was a strategic acquisition agreement aimed at strengthening cross-chain infrastructure—yet the market still sold the stock aggressively, consistent with a broader “risk-off” move that also pressured crypto-linked equities. [30]
Before the bell on Dec. 16, the biggest swing factors are likely to be macro data (jobs/retail sales) and interest-rate expectations, overnight crypto direction, and whether investors treat Monday’s move as a capitulation low or the start of another leg down. [31]
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.circle.com, 7. www.circle.com, 8. www.circle.com, 9. www.wsj.com, 10. www.circle.com, 11. www.circle.com, 12. www.occ.treas.gov, 13. finance.yahoo.com, 14. www.businesswire.com, 15. seekingalpha.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.benzinga.com, 19. www.fool.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.investopedia.com, 22. seekingalpha.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.wsj.com, 25. www.circle.com, 26. unusualwhales.com, 27. finance.yahoo.com, 28. ir.theice.com, 29. www.marketwatch.com, 30. www.circle.com, 31. www.reuters.com
